Damn, Maeve really did win

[Griffyn612]

COLD DAYS

     “Oh, oh!” Maeve said, her body twisting into a
spontaneous little dance of pure glee. “You never
saw that coming, did you, Mother? It never even
occurred to you, did it?” Her own eyes widened in
lunatic intensity. “And how will you slay me now?
Whither would my mantle go? Where is the nearest
vessel now? Some hapless mortal, perhaps,
ignorant of its true nature? The instrument of
some foe of yours, in alliance with me, ready to
steal away the mantle and leave you vulnerable?”
Maeve giggled. “I can play chess too, Mother.
Better now than ever you could. And I am now less
a liability to you alive than dead.”

I'm sure someone else caught this, but I only realized it just now.

Maeve names the two options for who gets the mantle if she's killed.

A clueless mortal, or a tool of Mab's nemesis.

Molly, or Justine.

My original thought was that she was referring to Molly and one of the handmaidens/court members in the raiding party. Someone allied with her on the hill. But she was talking about Justine and Nemesis.

I wanted to think Justine was possessed by Nemesis later, but Maeve flat out says that if she's killed, the mantle will 50/50 go to Nemesis.

I just took Harry's flawed narration as fact. He thought Maeve hadn't thought it through. But she had. Her gambit played out exactly like she thought.

[Mira]

Possible, but let's not forget Maeve's "mommy issues,"  how jealous she was of the relationship between Sarissa and Mab.  When the Summer Mantle went to Sarissa it forever put a wall between her and Mab.  Or at least in Maeve's eyes it did and that was sweet revenge, though as we've learned from Christmas Eve, apparently Mab and Sarissa still have a good relationship.

[Avernite]

I think it all rests on understanding if Molly really was clueless.

I think, fundamentally, Mab gambled better than Maeve there - Molly is a good Lady, even if she has a learning curve.

[morriswalters]

Molly was the fallback for an outcome that Mab couldn't foresee. When Lily was killed and Sarrisa assumed the mantle Maeve was blind to what she didn't want to see, that Mab had outmaneuvered her again.  But Mab knew that, where Harry was, Molly was.  Mab won. The mantle was never in danger. The hapless mortal would have been Murphy, Justine was Maeve's ally.

And I suddenly understood what was happening; I understood what Mab knew that Maeve didn’t. Sarissa wasn’t the only Faerie vessel on the hilltop. She was simply the one Maeve had been meant to see.

Butcher, Jim. Cold Days (The Dresden Files, Book 14) (p. 505). Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.

[Mira]

Yup, Molly was the fall back, but Mab meant for her to be the Summer Lady and Sarissa the Winter Lady, but it didn't work out that way.  Maeve thought she won because she thought she was breaking up the mother/daughter relationship she has always been so jealous of.

[Griffyn612]

Possible, but let's not forget Maeve's "mommy issues,"  how jealous she was of the relationship between Sarissa and Mab.  When the Summer Mantle went to Sarissa it forever put a wall between her and Mab.  Or at least in Maeve's eyes it did and that was sweet revenge, though as we've learned from Christmas Eve, apparently Mab and Sarissa still have a good relationship.

Sarissa was already out of play by that point. She's received the Summer Lady mantle, which left two viable candidates. She identified them both, and we just didn't realize at the time that Justine was the "instrument of some foe".

I think it all rests on understanding if Molly really was clueless.

I think, fundamentally, Mab gambled better than Maeve there - Molly is a good Lady, even if she has a learning curve.

I think Molly is doing a good job, and Mab is satisfied in her progress.

But Maeve won in the sense that she succeeded in her plan. It just so happens that the results weren't as catastrophic as she thought they'd be.

Molly was the fallback for an outcome that Mab couldn't foresee. When Lily was killed and Sarrisa assumed the mantle Maeve was blind to what she didn't want to see, that Mab had outmaneuvered her again.  But Mab knew that, where Harry was, Molly was.  Mab won. The mantle was never in danger. The hapless mortal would have been Murphy, Justine was Maeve's ally.

No, we're led to believe that she was blind to it. But she knew the mantle could be taken by a mortal or by Justine. She thought the threat was enough to spare her in the moment, and she was wrong about that. But she was on point with the options.

Yup, Molly was the fall back, but Mab meant for her to be the Summer Lady and Sarissa the Winter Lady, but it didn't work out that way.  Maeve thought she won because she thought she was breaking up the mother/daughter relationship she has always been so jealous of.

I don't think Mab meant for Molly to be summer lady, she just said she thought it would suit her better. But I think Molly was the backup for Sarissa and Lily, if either as lady couldn't function. I think she thought she'd have more time to prepare Molly, but she was on the board just in case. And she was used as needed.

[morriswalters]

Maeve's protection was predicated on the idea that no other person in that circle had been prepped to make her a target for the mantle once Sarissa had the Summer mantle.  Murphy wasn't and Justine could not have been.  Sarissa's training with Harry by Mab and Molly's by Lea are almost exactly the same.  The military calls that lighting the target. But you are correct in that this foreshadows Justine haven been taken.

As readers we should have suspected when Justine became Lara's assistant. Prior to that she wasn't exactly tied real tight.

[Griffyn612]

Maeve's protection was predicated on the idea that no other person in that circle had been prepped to make her a target for the mantle once Sarissa had the Summer mantle.  Murphy wasn't and Justine could not have been.  Sarissa's training with Harry by Mab and Molly's by Lea are almost exactly the same.  The military calls that lighting the target. But you are correct in that this foreshadows Justine haven been taken.

As readers we should have suspected when Justine became Lara's assistant. Prior to that she wasn't exactly tied real tight.

I don't think her becoming assistant was too suspicious, but the stability without Thomas feeding from her too calm her should have been.

Assuming I'm remembering the timeline correctly.

She was being fed on up until Thomas held back in Blood Rites. Then she had true love protection, which makes her ideal as an assistant for Lara, as she's untouchable to internal manipulation. But yeah, the mental clarity should have rung bells. It's just hard to know if that was due to character growth, plot necessity, or specific cause.

And I still say she was infected by Lord Raith. 

[morriswalters]

I have no idea.  But good catch on the foreshadowing.  I missed it completely.  It makes me feel better about Justine, which took me off guard.

[The_Sibelis]

Once again proving no matter how fine the comb you use on the Dresden files, it's never fine enough to sieve it all..

[groinkick]

wow good catch.  Jim really does a great job leaving little clues

[Mira]

My original thought was that she was referring to Molly and one of the handmaidens/court members in the raiding party. Someone allied with her on the hill. But she was talking about Justine and Nemesis.

Yeah, well, I'm on record saying that I thought that Justine was infected way before Cold Days.  However I still don't think her plan succeeded exactly because Justine didn't become Lady.  And
yes, in some ways Sarissa's training with Harry prepared her and mirrored Molly's in some ways, I don't think Mab was lying when she said her plan was for Sarissa to be Winter Lady, not Molly. Why? Because she wanted her favorite daughter near her.

[TrueMonk]

I disagree

Whither would my mantle go? Where is the nearest
vessel now? Some hapless mortal, perhaps,
ignorant of its true nature? The instrument of
some foe of yours, in alliance with me, ready to
steal away the mantle and leave you vulnerable?”
Maeve giggled. “I can play chess too, Mother.
Better now than ever you could. And I am now less
a liability to you alive than dead.”

Molly is not some clueless mortal, she was a pretty good candidate and Maeve was more of a liability to Mab alive than dead, which is why Mab killed her (via Murph).

I do not think the outsiders trusted Maeve enough to tell her that Justine was infected.

[Mira]

I disagree

Whither would my mantle go? Where is the nearest
vessel now? Some hapless mortal, perhaps,
ignorant of its true nature? The instrument of
some foe of yours, in alliance with me, ready to
steal away the mantle and leave you vulnerable?”
Maeve giggled. “I can play chess too, Mother.
Better now than ever you could. And I am now less
a liability to you alive than dead.”

Molly is not some clueless mortal, she was a pretty good candidate and Maeve was more of a liability to Mab alive than dead, which is why Mab killed her (via Murph).

I do not think the outsiders trusted Maeve enough to tell her that Justine was infected.

I'm not saying that doesn't matter, it does, however here is why Maeve didn't win.  While not perfect in many ways, both Ladies, Molly and Sarissa are sane, thus balance is restored.  Because the Ladies are sane, hardworking and doing their jobs, the Queens can work together when need be as we saw in Battle Ground..  There is now a united front against the Enemy, there wasn't before.

The Enemy had to go to plan "B," once Maeve died and Justine didn't get the mantle of Lady.  Plan B was to undermine the Accords, thus infected Justine's new mission was to get pregnant as HWWB admitted to Harry on the boat at the end of Battle Ground, that plan came very close to succeeding.  Not only in undermining the Accords, but to invade Demonreach itself, if Harry hadn't realized in the last moment that Justine was possessed by an Outsider, they would have penetrated the island defenses and all hell would have broken loose.

Keep in mind, Maeve was raving and just a wee bit insane when she told Mab all of that, and she still was talking about the Lady's mantles.  She didn't succeed there, it isn't clear or rather there is no evidence that Maeve even knows that there was a plan "B".

[Arjan]

Yeah, well, I'm on record saying that I thought that Justine was infected way before Cold Days.  However I still don't think her plan succeeded exactly because Justine didn't become Lady.  And
yes, in some ways Sarissa's training with Harry prepared her and mirrored Molly's in some ways, I don't think Mab was lying when she said her plan was for Sarissa to be Winter Lady, not Molly. Why? Because she wanted her favorite daughter near her.

I think Justine was infected just before when she was captured.