The ones that are still around, probably. Apparently according to a bizarre WOJ some of the Alphas just wrote of their experiences as drug induced delusions in college. Which to me sounds insane.
I suspect Will and Georgia might bite the dust. They are long-time characters with enough emotional value to be worth killing off, without being detrimental to Harry's future or messing up the series. Technically no character is safe but you can always work out who probably won't go. I don't think Andi will necessarily - unless Jim wants to make Butters' story darker.
I’m not sure that you see characters the same way as Jim does. As far as long time characters being effectively disposable and readily replaced by newcomers, remember what Jim has repeatedly said about being “too lazy” to write up new characters. At this stage of the series, there isn’t really time to fully develop new characters.
Yes, in the Christmas Story short, Harry was clearly feeling the guilt of people he knew being dead. Just remember, he felt the same way when Kirby died—whom we had barely seen on page. That death toll could include people as peripheral as Rawlins—or Mrs. Spunkelcrief. Shoot, he’d probably feel guilty if people like Hendricks or even Rudolph died—because he knew them as real people.
And it would hardly be unlike Jim to include a redemptive arc for even someone like Rudolph in the middle of what Battle Ground appears to be. Making even a worm a sympathetic character.
As far as anyone being “safe” I’m not sure there is such a thing. It wouldn’t surprise me to find that Jim diced out the fates of all of the tertiary characters for a book like BG. I can just see him: “Crap, Andi! Why’d you have to go and roll an eighteen here! That’s a critical failure!”
Or a three, of course. Whatever scale he’s using.
I will say that there is one absence from the Christmas Story scene that seems ominous to me. And no, not just because the older Carpenter kids didn’t make it back from college or on leave for Christmas. But that’s for that thread, so I’ll leave that alone.
Oh, if you’re worried about the Wizard/gumshoe thing, Harry still has a few books left to get back to that gig. It’ll just be on a bigger scale. And part of me is wondering if Murphy will get her PI license. Guess we’ll see.