Proven Guilty speculation, because, why not?

[kbrizzle]

@morriswalters
Bare bones, our theories seem to mesh a fair amount except for a few things:

• When the attack on AT took place - although I like the theory that the attack happened during DB but Mab slowed down time at AT so a year looks like a few weeks so she can deal with the assault - I’ll need to think about it some more, but it looks good.
  If you’re saying that the BC had a 3 pronged attack planned during DB to hit the Venatori, then WC/ wardens & then AT, remember that there is a BC (Ramp+Outsider) attack happening in parallel during PG as well- this is why Michael went to OR to rescue the kids & SC - if Mab had won for a year, why didn’t she do anything to help there? Perhaps the assault on AT was timed in parallel to the attack in OR so Mab couldn’t help out there - if Michael hadn’t shown up, 4 members of the SC including Rashid & Eb would’ve likely been wiped out.
  It would make more sense if Mab had recently routed the assault on AT & then immediately looks to see what else the BC is doing - she sees the events unfolding around Molly, so engineers the first attack on Pell to get Harry’s attention & set up a portal through which he can get to AT should the need arise (perhaps to get the WC to help since she likely doesn’t trust any other wizard) in the face of another BC assault.
• The need for the BC assault team to go through the portal at Pell’s theater - again, I’m not sure why a skilled sorcerer like Namshiel would need this, especially if he has the help of Maeve.
  Harry was able to open a portal to Hades without Hades or anyone else guiding him - he just needed Nic to tell him that Marcone’s vault would do as a like-place in the mortal world, so why would Namshiel need Lily to open such a portal, when Nfected Lea or Maeve could have told the BC? Additionally, why does the portal need to be in Chicago where a Starborn & KotC reside? Why not Canada or Sweden?
• What was Mab doing between DB & PG as well as during PG? IIRC, you are in the camp that believes Mab fixed LC during the events of PG. While I’m not against this, in my theory someone from Summer fixes LC.
  By your theory, the attack happens during DB but Mab wins & spends the next few months (nearly a year in mortal time) alone at a busted up AT without any defenses. At the beginning of PG, she ‘re-opens’ the Pell’s theater portal & sends across a Fetch to assault Pell while Nelson is in the bathroom. The purpose of this is to lay a trap for the traitor within Winter?
  

[morriswalters]

The analogy between Marcone's vault and Pell's theater work's this way for me.  Without Marcone's vault Harry couldn't get to Hade's realm period.  I would assume, were I Jim and I was writing it, that accessing the vicinity of Arctis Tor would be similar in nature in terms of difficulty,to the difficulty in accessing Hades.  So once the theater was prepped anyone could open the portal, but without the theater no human could.  YMMV.  That's how I envision it.

Your third point.  I don't suggest that it happened this way in Jim's mind, but think of a slow zone surrounding Arctis Tor where time slows down.  So if your coming to Arctis Tor to attack, time will slow for you while Mab in her fortress proceeds at normal time.  She will appear to you to be racing, while to her you will look like a turtle.  It's almost a perfect defense.

However if access to Arctis Tor is restricted and Mab ends up in control of the crossing point at Pell's theater than you don't need a guard at all, you always have time to yell for help.  The assault on Pell appears to have accomplished precisely one thing.  It kept him away from his theater and kept it closed during the events of Proven Guilty.  As to why Mab might do something like that, any theory is as good as mine, since I don't have a coherent one.  WOJ is that Mab had Molly brought to the fortress.  Obviously she wanted Harry there and she has shown a willingness to accept collateral damage to accomplish her goals.  Other than that I'm more or less clueless.

I don't think I covered all your points, however I am currently out of ideas. Thanks for the back and forth.  It helps me quite a bit.

[kbrizzle]

@morriswalters
Agreed, these discussions help me quite a bit too. I suppose we’ll have to wait till Peace Talks to see if any new info is given about PG (although I suspect we’ll have to wait till MM).

I disagree about the point regarding Harry being unable to get to Hades without Marcone’s vault. I’m sure other places around the world exist, but perhaps they are even harder to break into than Marcone’s vault. Hades explicitly says that the point of his hoarding divine weapons is not to keep them away from people, but rather to force the ones who come there to show their determination & skill so that at least they would be able to use the weapons properly. Hades doesn’t mind people trying to enter his demesne, so he’s not actively trying to hide it.
Besides, in SG Marcone was in on the con, so I always assumed that Marcone’s place was set up so that team Mab (which Marcone is on in SG) would control the point of egress in case Harry failed. Since Mab cannot attack Nic without breaking her word, Marcone is the hedge - he has a legitimate gripe about Nic breaking into his bank & so can hit Nic without anything reflecting poorly on Mab.

Separately, there are other reasons why Marcone was used in SG.

• Marcone & Nic had squabbled a couple of times previously with Marcone just about coming out on top (the Shroud & being able to get away in SmF). Nic was likely eager to hit Marcone again & get the better of him this time
• There have been parallels drawn a couple of times between Marcone & Hades as ‘reluctant but honorable lords of the Underworld’. Perhaps this is foreshadowing greater things for Marcone in the future. After all, Odin, Mab & Hades are helping him out now
• In the DV, power needs to have purpose. If Marcone is to become more powerful, he must have greater purpose. By making him the mortal world’s supernatural banker, Mab et al are elevating Marcone in terms of stature & power.

[Bad Alias]

I disagree about the point regarding Harry being unable to get to Hades without Marcone’s vault. I’m sure other places around the world exist.

I'm pretty sure Morris's point is simply that Harry couldn't enter Hades at the Gate of Fire from just any place. It had to be Marcone's vault or a place almost exactly like it owned by a lord of the underworld. There's a good chance it was the only place in the world like it.

As to the number of bones, the bulk of them might have nothing to do with the attack on Arctis Tor. Winter is not a fun place. I believe the bones are connected to the assault, just raising the point that it's not hard to imagine that Arctis Tor would have a lot of bones around anyway.

[kbrizzle]

I'm pretty sure Morris's point is simply that Harry couldn't enter Hades at the Gate of Fire from just any place. It had to be Marcone's vault or a place almost exactly like it owned by a lord of the underworld. There's a good chance it was the only place in the world like it.

I disagree - Marcone’s place was specially made to be the easiest place for Nic & Co. to break into. In SG, it takes them all of 2-3 chapters to break in. This was of course for Mab’s con to work. Surely Hades’ demesne wasn’t cordoned off from the mortal world for centuries until Marcone’s bank was built...

As to the number of bones, the bulk of them might have nothing to do with the attack on Arctis Tor. Winter is not a fun place. I believe the bones are connected to the assault, just raising the point that it's not hard to imagine that Arctis Tor would have a lot of bones around anyway.

We know this isn’t the case from CD when Harry is in AT. Also the sheer number of bones & the way they were placed clearly shows a brutal fight, especially since a lot of the bones were melted by hellfire.

[morriswalters]

Surely Hades’ demesne wasn’t cordoned off from the mortal world for centuries until Marcone’s bank was built...

No, you only had to die to get in.  

One would assume that since Nic had knowledge of the three trials that it wasn't designed to be impossible to get in, merely difficult.

[kbrizzle]

I’d be really curious to see how a necro/ectomancer would’ve handled the Blood Gate. Given that Hades is likely a necromancer himself, I’m fairly certain there’s a way to pass it without actually killing a member of your coterie.

Maybe Nic should’ve hired Ghost Harry from GS instead of WK Harry ;/)

[Bad Alias]

We know this isn’t the case from CD when Harry is in AT. Also the sheer number of bones & the way they were placed clearly shows a brutal fight, especially since a lot of the bones were melted by hellfire.

Harry isn't outside in CD. He is inside.

[g33k]

... especially since a lot of the bones were melted by hellfire.

IIRC, Harry noted several different kinds of damage to the bones, presumably showing several different spellcasters with different kinds of magic.

But "melted' wouldn't be the hellfire kind of damage:  blackened, charred/cracking, and even burning up, is fire damage to bone.   Unless Mab had defenders with bones made of metal...

Also I gotta presume that (1) plenty of the attackers bones are mixed in (it wasn't likely to be a 1-sided battle!)  And (2) nothing showing heat/fire damage was likely to be the action of any WinterFae.
 

[kbrizzle]

@Bad Alias
True, but given how clean & minimalist the interiors are described as being (except for the replica of Harry’s apt), it seems unlikely that thousands of bones routinely clutter the passageways of AT.
Combined with the fact that the entry gates had been blown apart, hellfire & acid pitted the walls & Mab’s personal troll guards’ remains are found defending her retreat in the courtyard, I find your point unlikely (although I get you’re playing devils advocate).

@g33k
Absolutely, if the theory that this was a BC attack is correct, I would assume that there would be numerous spellcasters of different backgrounds - spearheaded by Namshiel who was either juiced up or is Nfected & able to let loose the power of his Fallen once in a while.
One the open questions is why didn’t the attackers breach the spire in the courtyard where Molly, Lea & the Wellspring are? Despite fighting a campaign to get to the spire, it is seemingly untouched when Harry gets there.
My theory is that either Uriel intervenes since the Nfected Fallen is letting loose, or if Namshiel has been juiced, perhaps Mab was able to kill the wielder but not capture the coin, bringing down the attackers’ biggest gun.

[Kindler]

I think it's a reasonable assumption that Namshiel, if involved in the attack, survived. When its host is killed in Small Favor, Nic muses that at least Tessa had lost her sorcery teacher, and this was after he found out that the Coins had been taken from Harry. There must be some mitigating factor that limits how quickly the Fallen can use their hosts. I don't think it'd be particularly hard to find a new Holder for a Coin, so I therefore assume it takes time for the Fallen to dominate their Holders (Thornyboy seemed like one of those Denarians who preferred to be always shifted, implying Domination rather than Partnership).

[morriswalters]

Thorned Namshiel was the horse, I don't know which fallen was the rider.  And it was him at Arctis Tor, unless this passage from Small Favor is BS.

I frowned and thought of the silver hand that had batted the fallen angel and his master sorcerer around as if he’d been a stuffed practice dummy. “Thorned Namshiel.”
Mab’s eyes flashed with sudden, cold fury and frost literally formed over every surface of the chapel, including upon my own eyelashes.
“There are others yet who will pay for what they have done,”

And by the end of Skin Game three more had, Maeve, the Reds and Nicodemus.  There is probably someone else.

The point about only seeing the courtyard is that you don't know who was in the castle when Harry got there.  There could have been an army.  Or no one.

[Kindler]

Thorned Namshiel was the Fallen, not the host.

[kbrizzle]

@Kindler
I took Nic’s comment regarding Tessa losing her sorcery teacher to mean that Team Harry had Namshiel’s coin - Tessa wasn’t able to escape with it, therefore it wouldn’t be at her disposal.
Since Namshiel is referred to by his Fallen name & not that of his host, it shouldn’t be a stretch to assume that the Fallen goes through mortal host bodies pretty quickly - especially since he’s part of Tessa’s coterie, which is known to do so (excepting her & Rosanna of course). It wouldn’t surprise me if his host burned out/ died in PG (but coin was whisked away) but the Fallen was up & running by SmF in a new one.

@morriswalters
That is true, although the fact that the central spire in the courtyard which contained the Wellspring was untouched - there were no markings of hellfire or acid on the walls or base - is remarkable. Either this was the only piece of rebuilding Mab did, or some event forced the attackers to stop/ divert/ retreat.

[morriswalters]

Am I missing something?  Do any other of the Fallen have a first name, and if they do, why?

@kbrizzle
It's the way Mab wants it to be.  Maybe  she left it that way so Harry could see it. It makes sense if you perceive it the way I do, which is Mab sitting at the center of her web, feeling it move as the people crawl around on it as her enemies plot against her.  She's pretty much been under attack, however covertly, since Lea accepted the atheme.