Unsolved Mystery Book9 Cowl again

[the neurovore of Zur-En-Aargh]

I like the theory that Cowl was working to get the Darkhallow power-up so that he could bust through the wards on the Facility at Edinburgh to kill the SC and as many of the resident wizards there to fulfill a deal with the Rampires.

I am pretty sure that selling the Reds on that was a large part of Cowl's goal, with the intention of then hanging them out to dry.

[wardenferry419]

Neurovore, I have a question for you, sir. How likely do you think it is that Cowl is a member of the Grey Council?

[jonas]

Neurovore, I have a question for you, sir. How likely do you think it is that Cowl is a member of the Grey Council?

What makes you ask that?

[Arjan]

I am pretty sure that selling the Reds on that was a large part of Cowl's goal, with the intention of then hanging them out to dry.

After which he continues with chopping of his own head....

Why sacrificing your main pawn which was nicely on track weakening tne white council? Why not make it stronger so it could weaken the Sidhe courts as well? For example by providing it with a better ally by removing the current white court leadership and if that fails making room for the Fomor to take their place?

It makes no sense to weaken the red court because their work was not done yet. Cowls ultimate goal is to weaken winter and as long as the reds are on coarse it makes no sense for him to weaken them. Only if they would leave that coarse as the white court was doing doe the situation change.

Weakening everyone and leaving winter with the bulk of its strength does not just change nothing it even makes winters task in guarding the gates easier.

In this context it is easy to see why Mab and Odin wanted the red court gone.

[wardenferry419]

What makes you ask that?

While I am firmly in the Cowl is Simon camp; I do explore other possibilities. If Cowl was involve in a long plot in which part of it involved taking down vamp courts.Then, we might want to be present as a big one is going down for the count. If that is a possibility; then I don't know who Cowl is.

[the neurovore of Zur-En-Aargh]

Neurovore, I have a question for you, sir.

I am not a "sir", I am a state of mind.

How likely do you think it is that Cowl is a member of the Grey Council?

Negligible.  I think the Grey Council will turn out to be the Merlin's sanctioned but deniable task force, which nobody has told Harry because he keeps demonstrating knee-jerk paranoia about working with people he disagrees with.

[the neurovore of Zur-En-Aargh]

Why sacrificing your main pawn which was nicely on track weakening tne white council? Why not make it stronger so it could weaken the Sidhe courts as well? For example by providing it with a better ally by removing the current white court leadership and if that fails making room for the Fomor to take their place?

I don't see Cowl's main objective as weakening the White Council.  I see it as weakening all the supernatural powers, Red Court, White Council, Faerie, everyone.  The Red King and the LoONs don't exactly look like pushovers (unless like Harry you actually take the Red King's crazy act in Changes, which conveniently goes away the instant it is no longer useful, at face value.)   Making the White Council too weak relative to the Red Court just leaves the Reds free to disengage much of their force; the situation where the White Council and the Reds both get beaten down but are still engaged works better.

I also see no reason to think Cowl's long-term goal is to obliterate the leadership of the White Court, rather than that being a fallback; without Harry interfering, a White Court shift of policy towards drawing them into war with the White Council looks much more likely to come of that meeting in the Raith Deeps.

In this context it is easy to see why Mab and Odin wanted the red court gone.

That is providing a answer for a non-existent question, IMO.  The Reds made a peace offer, under the terms of the Accords, at the start of Changes, without the intent to keep it.  That is grounds enough for Mab to want them exterminated; they are her Accords, and the Reds had PG as a warning already.

[wardenferry419]

I am not a "sir", I am a state of mind.

Negligible.  I think the Grey Council will turn out to be the Merlin's sanctioned but deniable task force, which nobody has told Harry because he keeps demonstrating knee-jerk paranoia about working with people he disagrees with.

Apologies if my use of "sir" is a problem. It's a southern thang. So, you think the Grey Council is similar to Cyclops' use of X-force for black ops.

[the neurovore of Zur-En-Aargh]

Apologies if my use of "sir" is a problem. It's a southern thang.

So long as you;re not making assumptions about my gender, I am good.

So, you think the Grey Council is similar to Cyclops' use of X-force for black ops.

More or less, though I have only a vague handle on the latter.

One of the first things we are told about the Merlin is that he always has three plans for any situation; a main plan, a backup plan, and an ace-in-the-hole.

Changes makes a lot of sense to me on those grounds.  The main plan being to talk to the Reds as if they were sincere about the peace offer (that way, if they are, everything is fine, and if they're not, they're the ones who have abused the Accords and they don't have any legitimate grounds for complaint to muddy the waters), the backup plan being the Grey Council, and the ace-in-the-hole being "hey, all you loyal White Council folks, let's isolate Harry Dresden so he will go elsewhere for support and bring big guns into play against the Red Court, with that gift for mayhem we've seen him display over and over."

[wardenferry419]

Well, if so, then the Grey Council weren't in the know; because McCoy seemed very upset by Harry not making the GC meeting.

[Arjan]

I don't see Cowl's main objective as weakening the White Council.  I see it as weakening all the supernatural powers, Red Court, White Council, Faerie, everyone.

But if you weaken everyone you achieve nothing, their relative strengts stay the same. To create real chaos you need to strengthen a somewhat weaker aggressive party and weaken the powers that are so someone sees a chance and goes for it.

The red court were ideal for that.

The Red King and the LoONs don't exactly look like pushovers (unless like Harry you actually take the Red King's crazy act in Changes, which conveniently goes away the instant it is no longer useful, at face value.) 

Not compared to the white council but the real target has always been Winter.

Making the White Council too weak relative to the Red Court just leaves the Reds free to disengage much of their force; the situation where the White Council and the Reds both get beaten down but are still engaged works better.

To disengage for what? They went completely crazy at the end of changes. They were the ideal tool for creating even more havoc. They probably would have broken on Winter but if not you just let them make more enemies.

I also see no reason to think Cowl's long-term goal is to obliterate the leadership of the White Court, rather than that being a fallback;

Correct, the red court was not enough against Winter, he needed the white court at their side as well but when that was impossible and Lara seemed to take position against him he went for the second option. He probably tried to encourage the Fomor to take a more active role as well.

without Harry interfering, a White Court shift of policy towards drawing them into war with the White Council looks much more likely to come of that meeting in the Raith Deeps.

That is providing a answer for a non-existent question, IMO.  The Reds made a peace offer, under the terms of the Accords, at the start of Changes, without the intent to keep it.  That is grounds enough for Mab to want them exterminated; they are her Accords, and the Reds had PG as a warning already.

So why did Odin and Uriel join Mab? The white council seems in some way integrated in the defence against the outsiders. Chicken Itza was not just about Harry, it was the other powers who saw an opportunity to do something about the red court. The outsiders need to have at least one active pawn at this side of the gate. Cowl shows all the symptoms. He manipulates and uses other powers to weaken the defense of reality.

[the neurovore of Zur-En-Aargh]

Well, if so, then the Grey Council weren't in the know; because McCoy seemed very upset by Harry not making the GC meeting.

"Seemed" is the appropriate word.  I have no problem with Eb helping string Harry along there.

[the neurovore of Zur-En-Aargh]

But if you weaken everyone you achieve nothing, their relative strengts stay the same. To create real chaos you need to strengthen a somewhat weaker aggressive party and weaken the powers that are so someone sees a chance and goes for it.

OK, I was unclear there.  I reckon Cowl is all about weakening everyone else in order to make life easier for the Outsiders. 

The rest of what you are saying, I say both yes and no to. In that I think the method Cowl is using to get everyone beaten down includes sometimes throwing balances off (as between the White Council's hammering in DB and the Red Court's in PG)  but mostly dragging people into wars that benefit neither side (as in GP, and as attempted in WN).

Not compared to the white council but the real target has always been Winter.

I don't agree with you there.  Winter being the ones who are up front guarding the Outer Gates at the moment makes them a necessary target, but far from the only important one.

To disengage for what? They went completely crazy at the end of changes.

I don't agree with you there either.  Harry finds the notion that evil is chaotic and crazy and self-destructive very comforting, and he projects it all over the place, which leaves him a big blindspot to evil that is actually organised and out-thinking him but passes itself off as chaotic etc. (Like the Joker almost all the way through  Dark Knight.)

The Red Court isn't crazy, by all the evidence up to and including Changes.  It is deeply divided over whether war with the White Council in the current timeframe is a good idea.  Harry is looking at the outcomes of a shifting political balance between those in the Red Court who think that outside sorcerous aid can make the war winnable to them at this point (Arianna) and those who see that they can't win the war at this point (Ortega in DM, the Red King in Changes), and thinks he's seeing one commander who is loopy.  The Red King rather neatly plays Harry to get rid of Arianna.

He probably tried to encourage the Fomor to take a more active role as well.

I strongly suspect the death of the Red Court will turn out very much a net loss for the defense of reality.  I like the notion (not originally mine) that Chichen Itza is such a nexus of power because, like Demonreach, there is something really scary buried under there, and I would not be at all surprised if reconstituting the Red Court from the survivors (the ones in the Erlking's basement, and, if I am right, Ortega) is a vital part of the final battle.

So why did Odin and Uriel join Mab?

I've analysed that at some length, and I think my argument still stands; it's in the reference collection at http://www.jimbutcheronline.com/bb/index.php/topic,40670.0.html

[Talby16]

So long as you;re not making assumptions about my gender, I am good.

More or less, though I have only a vague handle on the latter.

One of the first things we are told about the Merlin is that he always has three plans for any situation; a main plan, a backup plan, and an ace-in-the-hole.

Changes makes a lot of sense to me on those grounds.  The main plan being to talk to the Reds as if they were sincere about the peace offer (that way, if they are, everything is fine, and if they're not, they're the ones who have abused the Accords and they don't have any legitimate grounds for complaint to muddy the waters), the backup plan being the Grey Council, and the ace-in-the-hole being "hey, all you loyal White Council folks, let's isolate Harry Dresden so he will go elsewhere for support and bring big guns into play against the Red Court, with that gift for mayhem we've seen him display over and over."

I agree with a slight tweak. I think the main plan was to let the peace talk proceed in case it was on the level. The back-up plan was to wait for the RC to show their hand and then counter-strike hard (as evidenced by Merlin's talk with Harry in the Worry Room). The ace-in-the-hole was the Grey Council taking the Red Court by surprise and doing what needs to be done outside the "rules of the council."

I think McCoy was trying to get Harry ready for the Merlin's counterstrike by getting him to the specific meeting point. Furthermore, I don't think Merlin finds Harry easy to understand, predict, or direct. He may have primed him to do something and had the Grey Council on stand-by to help, stop, or clean up after Harry.

[Arjan]

OK, I was unclear there.  I reckon Cowl is all about weakening everyone else in order to make life easier for the Outsiders. 

The rest of what you are saying, I say both yes and no to. In that I think the method Cowl is using to get everyone beaten down includes sometimes throwing balances off (as between the White Council's hammering in DB and the Red Court's in PG)  but mostly dragging people into wars that benefit neither side (as in GP, and as attempted in WN).

I don't agree with you there.  Winter being the ones who are up front guarding the Outer Gates at the moment makes them a necessary target, but far from the only important one.

I don't agree with you there either.  Harry finds the notion that evil is chaotic and crazy and self-destructive very comforting, and he projects it all over the place, which leaves him a big blindspot to evil that is actually organised and out-thinking him but passes itself off as chaotic etc. (Like the Joker almost all the way through  Dark Knight.)

The Red Court isn't crazy, by all the evidence up to and including Changes.  It is deeply divided over whether war with the White Council in the current timeframe is a good idea.  Harry is looking at the outcomes of a shifting political balance between those in the Red Court who think that outside sorcerous aid can make the war winnable to them at this point (Arianna) and those who see that they can't win the war at this point (Ortega in DM, the Red King in Changes), and thinks he's seeing one commander who is loopy.  The Red King rather neatly plays Harry to get rid of Arianna.

I strongly suspect the death of the Red Court will turn out very much a net loss for the defense of reality.  I like the notion (not originally mine) that Chichen Itza is such a nexus of power because, like Demonreach, there is something really scary buried under there, and I would not be at all surprised if reconstituting the Red Court from the survivors (the ones in the Erlking's basement, and, if I am right, Ortega) is a vital part of the final battle.

I've analysed that at some length, and I think my argument still stands; it's in the reference collection at http://www.jimbutcheronline.com/bb/index.php/topic,40670.0.html

I remember we had this discussion before but not in that thread.

One problem I have with this line of reasoning is that if you weaken everyone it basicaly lets the bulk of winters forces at the gates intact and no tools left to hit them with. As soon as everyone is weakened enough the turmoil will stop. It is only going on because several players see chances to improve their positions. It is not a working strategy because we can assume the outsiders have only a relative small number of real agents at this side of the gates.

Not all evil is necessarily crazy but some are. And crazy does not mean stupid either. It is just that the outsiders had the red court nicely on track and that the red king was also planning to defeat the council at that moment. There was no reason for them to end the red court because they would spend their energy doing what the outsiders wanted anyway.

I see all the powers working together against the red court as a sign how useful the red court had become for the outsiders. Mab's involvement may have had other reasons as well but all those powers together point only to one thing.