What does the Merlin want out of Peace Talks

[dspringer1]

Ok we know the next book is Peace Talks, which is basically about the Peace Talks to end the Supernatural WWIII pitting the White Council, Fellowship (mostly dead), Ventori, Winter, Summer against the alliance of the Red Court (mostly dead), White court, Black Court and no doubt some other unofficial allies like the (ahm) black council. 

The lay members of the White Council, especially the older ones, probably just want the war to end as quickly as possible.   They have no interest in continuing to fight and (collectively) little thought of the aftermath beyond some agreements to avoid a future war in the next few decades.   

What does the Merlin want?   A few books ago, I would say he is agreement with the above.  Seeing him in Changes, he was pretty militant. 
a) Is he going to go with a quick end to the war -- aka how we ended WWI by laying the groundwork for WWII

b) Is he going to go with a careful/prepared conclusion that might take longer, but leaves the White Council in a far stronger position and with solid allies  (aka - how we ended up WWII), but with well established enemies like the black/white court still quite powerful. 

c) Is he going to want to keep the war going until he can exterminate the black or white vampire court (or both).  Total victory in other words - while he has the alliance of Winter and Summer as allies.  After all, these two great supernatural powers may not be allies in the next war. 


2nd question - what about the Formor and other supernatural nations that did not fight in the war, but now insist on having a pieces of the spoils and/or seat at the table.   Will he welcome their presence (unlikely!) or fight their involvement fiercely or moderately oppose, but not spend his political capital on this fight.   

[groinkick]

I'm interested in seeing what kind of shape the White Council is in.  Harry hasn't exactly been to a Council meeting.  They could be strong, or perhaps they are not fairing very well, and it's being kept quite. 

[wardenferry419]

The Merlin will have his public plan, his SC-arranged plan, and his ace-in-the-hole plan that involves Harry.

[RobReece]

Ok we know the next book is Peace Talks, which is basically about the Peace Talks to end the Supernatural WWIII pitting the White Council, Fellowship (mostly dead), Ventori, Winter, Summer against the alliance of the Red Court (mostly dead), White court, Black Court and no doubt some other unofficial allies like the (ahm) black council. 

I think that part of your premise in in error.  It's been a while since I saw the 1st chapter, but I don't think its about ending the war with the RCV, Harry did that fairly convincingly in Changes.  If I remember correctly, these Talks were requested by the Fomor and are about the battles being fought in the vacuum of the Reds departure.  I believe that even normals have started to notice the impact of the war and the abductions that the Formor have been conducting.

I don't think that currently the Formor are signatories to the Accords and they want to be, at least I believe that's the reason they're stating for the talks.  Personally, I think they are wanting to bring a bunch of leaders together, kill them and create even more confusion and opportunity for them to expand.  I also think that there might be representatives from the government showing up(Tilly).

[Rasins]

I'll have to reread the first chapter of Peace Talks, but I thought it was about how the Fomor wanted to meet with the signatories of the Accords to discuss peace.

[Froklsnt]

The Fomor are signatories, that's established in the Marcone short story, "Even Hand." RobReece is correct that the meeting was called by the Fomor about the struggles over the Red's power vacuum. I also question the premise a bit here, I don't think its quite so binary. There could be up to 20 different parties at these talks (maybe more if we've never heard of them before), with wildly varying interests. While on some issues you might get a split down the middle, it's hard to imagine it would be the norm.

The 20 members, if you're curious (counts added by me for math's sake):

(1) The Archive (both an emissary and a Freeholding Lord)
(1, maybe) The Denarians - Nicodemus Archleone no longer a signatory as of Skin Game
(1) Donar Vadderung, CEO of Monoc Securities
(2) Both Faerie Courts
(1) John Marcone (the first non-supernatural to sign onto the Accords)
(7, but likely only 3 or 4 present) Vampire Courts
(1) The White Council
(1) The Svartalves
(1) Drakul
(1) A semi-immortal shapshifter guru in Ukraine
(2) Two Dragons
(1) The Fomor

As for the Merlin's agenda, I think wardenferry419 got the shape of the strategy dead-on:

The Merlin will have his public plan, his SC-arranged plan, and his ace-in-the-hole plan that involves Harry.

The Merlin doesn't seem to care much about vanilla mortals or even low-level talents, but he does care about not being noticed by mortal authorities. I bet he'd be will to sell the mortals down the river to a degree, as long as things calm down.

[Snark Knight]

I think that part of your premise in in error.  It's been a while since I saw the 1st chapter, but I don't think its about ending the war with the RCV, Harry did that fairly convincingly in Changes.  If I remember correctly, these Talks were requested by the Fomor and are about the battles being fought in the vacuum of the Reds departure.  I believe that even normals have started to notice the impact of the war and the abductions that the Formor have been conducting.
I don't think that currently the Formor are signatories to the Accords and they want to be, at least I believe that's the reason they're stating for the talks.  Personally, I think they are wanting to bring a bunch of leaders together, kill them and create even more confusion and opportunity for them to expand.  I also think that there might be representatives from the government showing up(Tilly).

I think you're right that it's about the Fomor. Nobody seems to have a great deal of appetite for continuing hostilities with either the Black or White Courts with the Reds down and out. They were basically drawn in on the Reds' side through the equivalent of mutual defense treaties, but they weren't exactly enthusiastic contributors (let alone friendly to each other, given the whole genocide thing). I don't see the Sidhe blaming them for the Reds' territorial trespasses, so their involvement would end with the Reds' destruction. And, sure, Harry knows that Lara's long-term intentions in promoting the ceasefire were malignant, but most of the Council doesn't seem to - Mai and company were wary of the Raiths in TC, but hardly in open enmity.

Incidentally, the Fomor definitely are Accords signatories. It's first confirmed in Even Hand.

[Rasins]

I'm pretty sure the Merlin wants peace.  I think he'd like nothing more than to get a 80 or 100 year breather to recoup his losses.

[dspringer1]

The Merlin will have his public plan, his SC-arranged plan, and his ace-in-the-hole plan that involves Harry.

I think it would be very interesting indeed if the Merlin had Harry as his ace in the hole.  That implies all sorts of changes in the council and the Merlin.   I would argue that up to this point the Merlin has never looked at Harry as anything more than a annoyance, a dangerous warlock or a lever to use against other senior council members.  The Merlin has certainly been petty with regards to Harry, he has not devoted much energy to opposing Harry beyond petty political games.  While the books are harry centric, the Merlin has shown no indication of being harry centric. 

Also, if the Merlin's plans involved Harry in some significant way, then the Merlin plans to disrupt the peace talks in some significant way.  The Merlin has always seen harry as a force of destruction/chaos/disruption.   If the Merlin sees benefit in Harry's involvement, then he wants the Peace talks disrupted.   Otherwise the Merlin's plans for Harry would all be about how to keep Harry away from the Peace Talks.   Why do you imagine the Merlin wants the talks to fail?

  I think that part of your premise in in error.  It's been a while since I saw the 1st chapter, but I don't think its about ending the war with the RCV, Harry did that fairly convincingly in Changes.  If I remember correctly, these Talks were requested by the Fomor and are about the battles being fought in the vacuum of the Reds departure.

The peace talks are about resolving the war with the Red Court, Black Court and White court.  I agree with you that this war is effectively over, but it is NOT actually over.   The black and white courts were active participants in the war and they are not destroyed. 

I do agree that the primary focus of the peace talks themselves are the spoils/territory to be divided and managing the conflicts already happening as supernatural races fight over the spoils.  Simply ending the war would be fairly easy as the Black and Red would just keep what they got and return to the status quo.  It is all the red territory that is now up for grabs that is the problem -- especially as the White Council is not capable/willing of taking it for themselves and defend it against all comers -- and winter/summer do not want it. 

[Froklsnt]

I think it would be very interesting indeed if the Merlin had Harry as his ace in the hole.  That implies all sorts of changes in the council and the Merlin.   I would argue that up to this point the Merlin has never looked at Harry as anything more than a annoyance, a dangerous warlock or a lever to use against other senior council members.  The Merlin has certainly been petty with regards to Harry, he has not devoted much energy to opposing Harry beyond petty political games.  While the books are harry centric, the Merlin has shown no indication of being harry centric. 

Also, if the Merlin's plans involved Harry in some significant way, then the Merlin plans to disrupt the peace talks in some significant way.  The Merlin has always seen harry as a force of destruction/chaos/disruption.   If the Merlin sees benefit in Harry's involvement, then he wants the Peace talks disrupted.   Otherwise the Merlin's plans for Harry would all be about how to keep Harry away from the Peace Talks.   Why do you imagine the Merlin wants the talks to fail?

I think the argument for Harry being the Merlin's ace-in-the-hole is primarily Doylist. From Jim's perspective, the reason to build a book around a concept like a summit is to play with Harry's now divided loyalties. It's rich with compelling story options which force Harry to choose sides in uncomfortable ways that may have serious consequences. As for an in-universe rationale, Harry has been accruing power at an alarming rate. Remember, the last time we heard anything out of the Merlin was the beginning of Changes, before Harry's Winter Knighthood, before the fall of the Reds, and before Harry had any understanding of what it meant to take Demonreach as his sanctum. He's not the small fry he was last time we checked in with the WCW.

The peace talks are about resolving the war with the Red Court, Black Court and White court.  I agree with you that this war is effectively over, but it is NOT actually over.   The black and white courts were active participants in the war and they are not destroyed. 

I do agree that the primary focus of the peace talks themselves are the spoils/territory to be divided and managing the conflicts already happening as supernatural races fight over the spoils.  Simply ending the war would be fairly easy as the Black and Red would just keep what they got and return to the status quo.  It is all the red territory that is now up for grabs that is the problem -- especially as the White Council is not capable/willing of taking it for themselves and defend it against all comers -- and winter/summer do not want it.

The WCW's inability to defend all of this now-exposed territory is why I feel like the Merlin might be willing to trade away the safety of some portion of the vanilla mortals and lower talents for peace. The Merlin is nothing if not a cold, political pragmatist, a lot like Mab in that way. The Merlin needs time to rebuilt his ranks, and he needs safety for his membership first and foremost. They simply aren't strong enough to properly defend mankind right now, and everyone knows it. Best to retreat, cede some territory, and rebuilt their strength. And besides, that stance is a great way to put more tension between him and Harry right from the start, and Jim just loves that sort of thing.

[raidem]

The White Council I think will start taking the gloves off with the Fomor.  The Fomor essentially kidnapped potential wizards worldwide, and then rushed into the vacuum left by the Red Court along with other powers.

[kazimmoinuddin]

The thing is while he is sure to have an agenda, the talks are not his show. So he would forced to be more reactive then active in his agenda.
He needs to put on a show of strength. To stop the supernatural predators perceiving them as weak or prey. That or he needs to some how undermine them so better to position the council.

[wardenferry419]

I think it would be very interesting indeed if the Merlin had Harry as his ace in the hole.  That implies all sorts of changes in the council and the Merlin.   I would argue that up to this point the Merlin has never looked at Harry as anything more than a annoyance, a dangerous warlock or a lever to use against other senior council members.  The Merlin has certainly been petty with regards to Harry, he has not devoted much energy to opposing Harry beyond petty political games.  While the books are harry centric, the Merlin has shown no indication of being harry centric. 

Also, if the Merlin's plans involved Harry in some significant way, then the Merlin plans to disrupt the peace talks in some significant way.  The Merlin has always seen harry as a force of destruction/chaos/disruption.   If the Merlin sees benefit in Harry's involvement, then he wants the Peace talks disrupted.   Otherwise the Merlin's plans for Harry would all be about how to keep Harry away from the Peace Talks.   Why do you imagine the Merlin wants the talks to fail?




The peace talks are about resolving the war with the Red Court, Black Court and White court.  I agree with you that this war is effectively over, but it is NOT actually over.   The black and white courts were active participants in the war and they are not destroyed. 

I do agree that the primary focus of the peace talks themselves are the spoils/territory to be divided and managing the conflicts already happening as supernatural races fight over the spoils.  Simply ending the war would be fairly easy as the Black and Red would just keep what they got and return to the status quo.  It is all the red territory that is now up for grabs that is the problem -- especially as the White Council is not capable/willing of taking it for themselves and defend it against all comers -- and winter/summer do not want it.

I didn't state that Harry would be a knowing and willing ace-in-the-hole plan.

[dspringer1]

I think the argument for Harry being the Merlin's ace-in-the-hole is primarily Doylist. From Jim's perspective, the reason to build a book around a concept like a summit is to play with Harry's now divided loyalties.

Very logical.  But in order for that play to make sense, the Merlin's agenda has to have changed.   His old agenda was to return to the status quo.   I can see no scenario where the Merlin would rely on Harry to achieve that outcome.   

The WCW's inability to defend all of this now-exposed territory is why I feel like the Merlin might be willing to trade away the safety of some portion of the vanilla mortals and lower talents for peace.

Of course the Merlin would trade away territory.  Giving away territory is easy - all the troublesome nations would happily accept the territory of the Red as a gift.   The peace talks would only be challenging if the Merlin did NOT want to give away most of the territory.  And given this territory might strengthen very dangerous potential enemies of the White Council, the Merlin has a strong incentive to manage the territory changes that come out of the Peace Talks. 
*  The White Council may lack the strength to keep large blocks of the territory
*  The White Council may lack the enthusiasm/support to keep large blocks of the territory
*  Other powers may object to the White Council claiming the territory.

If the purpose of the White Council is to leave the Peace Talks with some agreement that aids the White Council in keeping a lot of this territory - or at least make sure that the territorial gains other powers make do not threaten the White Council, that can be a very good use of Peace Talks  (in the eyes of the Merlin). 

I didn't state that Harry would be a knowing and willing ace-in-the-hole plan.

I did not make that assumption.  But the Merlin "knows" Harry to some extent and would predict the likely outcome if Harry gets involved (insults, threats, fights, disruption, etc).     The only reason I can think of for the Merlin to want harry there is
a) he wants the talks to fail and the war continue
b) he expects the talks to break down into open fighting and he wants one of his most dangerous wardens there in the fight


Besides, I thought I read on this site that Mab was the one insisting Harry be at the peace talks - against the Merlin's wishes. 

[raidem]

I think it was Ramirez choice and langtry didn't like it.