Why Attack Arctus Tor?

[dspringer1]

In Proven Guilty, someone attacked Arctus Tor.  They killed a lot of fey.  They left traces of hellfire.  Key questions: 
*  Who attacked?
*  Why did they attack?


Second Key Question - why did they survive (if you believe they survived)?  Presumably Mab is fully capable of defending her realm and is a frigging nightmare.   Mother Winter is an order of magnitude more dangerous even without her staff and presumably could do the same thing.   Almost inconceivable that Mab could not "hold them off" long enough to summon ten thousand winter fey guardians to defend her castle.   Yet none of this happened -- or at least no obvious evidence in the books that this mega-battle occurred. 

[dspringer1]

My personal theory -- which feels right, but there is little direct evidence - is as follows

* Black Council attacked Mab
* Black Council had "earned" a big favor from Mab at some point and used that favor to prevent Mab from directly attacking them -- including sending her people against them. 
* BC attacked Arctus Tor for several reasons, but the primary reason was to kill Mab -- an action triggered by their new knowledge that Maeve is nemfected.  Getting a nemfected individual as the new Mab would be a massive victory.    Secondary reason would be the free Lea, but this is a clearly secondary objective.   

As a result, the battle was primarily the BC forces against the normal defenders of Arctus Tor.  Mab provided no direction at all, which allowed her guards to fight against the attackers.   But her debt oath prevented her from summoning aid or taking the battle herself or calling in another queen to help.  Mab used the time her guards bought her to hide herself and Leah from any intruders --- which was also why Harry had to accidentally uncover Lea during his battle.  The other queens either did not know, or were prevented from acting for some reasons (nemfection or perhaps clearly defined roles of each queen). 


Indirect evidence.
*  Lea and mab were hiding
*  No forces of winter were summoned to defend the place
*  Mab did not kill the intruders
*  Mab discovered Maeve's nemfection soon afterwards
*  Nik freaked out (slightly) when he heard someone with hellfire attacked arctus tor
*  Major Red offensive was occurring.   Major red court attacks seem to be almost always tied to major black council operations.  Not exclusively, but the correlation is pretty high
*  Fey must fulfil obligations earned through debt

[raidem]

I do agree with the belief that mab had made agreements in which she partly, perhaps via constraining lea from hers, had to act against herself. 

[Griffyn612]

I think Nemesis arranged for the attack (via Maeve).  Maybe her cohorts were infected, or maybe they were just guns for hire that were willing to help Maeve unseat Mab for reasons (she's mad, she's a bitch, I'm more agreeable and will owe you favors, etc). 

Best case scenario, they free Lea and they take Mab out, replacing Mab with an infected agent who would be in charge of defending the Gates.

I think Mab was tied down with healing Lea, so the defense of Arctis Tor fell to her time travelin' Winter Knight from the future.

[Arjan]

Nemesis needed to get Lea before she could tell about Maeve. Mab wanted to know about her enemies so she made her fortress seem more vulnerable to invite an attack. They probably thought she was not there but she monitored everything.

[Zaphodess]

Nemesis needed to get Lea before she could tell about Maeve. Mab wanted to know about her enemies so she made her fortress seem more vulnerable to invite an attack. They probably thought she was not there but she monitored everything.

This, mostly. I'm not sure she deliberately made herself seem vulnerable. The attack could have been a surprise for her. But I guess freeing Lea before she can tell what she knew about Nemesis was a pretty good motive, one she could have anticipated. So it's possible.

[Arjan]

Not just the same color. Mab's eyes. The statue winked at me.

I think she was monitoring everything and deliberately not involving herself.

[Rasins]

We cannot forget that Time was messed with during this period.

We suspect Maeve of doing so, but don't know for sure.

Personally, I think Maeve Sped up time in and around AT for the battle.  By the time Harry and his invaders arrived, time was flowing normally.  When Harry and team were leaving, Maeve had to  slow it down again, to make up and bring balance back in the time-stream. 

Now why was AT attacked, I like the theory of releasing Leah before she spilled about Nemfecting Maeve, but really, I don't think we have enough information yet to really guess.

[Quantus]

The dot that Ive long wanted to connect was Marcone to Mab, via the nebulous events of PG.  There's got to be some reason she involved herself in SmF, and the best I have so far is the idea of a back-room deal between Vadderung and Mab, purely one asking help to defend his favorite pet project. 

[Zaphodess]

The dot that Ive long wanted to connect was Marcone to Mab, via the nebulous events of PG.  There's got to be some reason she involved herself in SmF, and the best I have so far is the idea of a back-room deal between Vadderung and Mab, purely one asking help to defend his favorite pet project.

I'm rereading SmF right now and that's exactly what I was wondering about: Why did Mab bother? Ok, her Accords were broken. But so what, someone who can't defend themselves doesn't have any business joining the club. Marcone must have earned a favor from her in some way. It makes sense for him to collect a couple of solids before joining the Accords.

[dspringer1]

I'm rereading SmF right now and that's exactly what I was wondering about: Why did Mab bother? Ok, her Accords were broken. But so what, someone who can't defend themselves doesn't have any business joining the club.

What value is the accords if the only enforcement is the victim defending themselves?   That is the definition of a toothless agreement.   

The value in the accords is that community of supernatural agents enforces a code of conduct.  In other words, people who break the laws are punished.   Mab created the accord for a reason, so she has a good reason to act to punish those who break the accord.   

If that is not good enough, the second reason is just as good.   The accords are an agreement - a bargain.  Mab keeps her word and the agreement binds her to punish those who break it. That is winter law.

And if that is not good enough, the third reasons is helpful.   Mab is limited in her ability to act.  One of the "loopholes" in these limits are the bargains Mab makes.  By breaking the accords, Mab is freed to act.  She must certainly act in accordance to her obligations in the accords, but that still leaves her a lot of flexibility in how she chooses to act.  For example, in this example she gained additional benefits in training Harry, earned a debt from Marcone, enhanced her reputation, and blocked the actions of a denarian who was almost certainly involved in the assault on Arctus Tor.  That's a lot of benefit should would not have been able to achieve without the breach in the accords.     

[Quantus]

What value is the accords if the only enforcement is the victim defending themselves?   That is the definition of a toothless agreement.   

The value in the accords is that community of supernatural agents enforces a code of conduct.  In other words, people who break the laws are punished.   Mab created the accord for a reason, so she has a good reason to act to punish those who break the accord.   

If that is not good enough, the second reason is just as good.   The accords are an agreement - a bargain.  Mab keeps her word and the agreement binds her to punish those who break it. That is winter law.

And if that is not good enough, the third reasons is helpful.   Mab is limited in her ability to act.  One of the "loopholes" in these limits are the bargains Mab makes.  By breaking the accords, Mab is freed to act.  She must certainly act in accordance to her obligations in the accords, but that still leaves her a lot of flexibility in how she chooses to act.  For example, in this example she gained additional benefits in training Harry, earned a debt from Marcone, enhanced her reputation, and blocked the actions of a denarian who was almost certainly involved in the assault on Arctus Tor.  That's a lot of benefit should would not have been able to achieve without the breach in the accords.     

That makes sense as an official story, but both Mab and Titania were moving on the Board before the initial kidnapping took place, so there has to be hidden motivation, no?

[dspringer1]

These are all power players with intelligence operations and agendas.  I suspect they are certainly trying to maximize opportunities, anticipate threats and so forth -- and occasionally blindsided by the actions of a clever or lucky participant in the Great Game.   I am sure they work constantly to create conditions that allow them to act effectively when necessary. 

[Quantus]

These are all power players with intelligence operations and agendas.  I suspect they are certainly trying to maximize opportunities, anticipate threats and so forth -- and occasionally blindsided by the actions of a clever or lucky participant in the Great Game.   I am sure they work constantly to create conditions that allow them to act effectively when necessary.

There's being responsive, and then there's being precognitive (which Im 99% 90% sure they are not).  This is at the point where you have to question if you have the Cause & Effect in the right order, methinks.

[dspringer1]

given all sides have access to some kind of knowledge of the future, I suspect it balances out