Who Attacked Arctis Tor, and Why

[Carl]

@Raidem: Okay your officially crazy .

@Peregrine: Depends we don;t know precisely what Arctic Minor is for, we've never been there. I mean look at Arctis Tor, sure it's technically Winter Capitals, a major winter fortress, irrespective of who's in residence), and all the rest, but it's emphasized as Mab's personal home/fortress and place of power much more. I'm working on the Assumption that Arctis Minor is a similar thing for the WL. And really i'd say specifically because of all the angels camped out there that the Carpenter household is much more that to Molly in the real world than her appartment.

@Griffyn612: true but it's not like anything non-mortal can get across with the angel's there. I imagine they can seal the border against them. And having it sealed against mortals by proxy would probably please them. I also suspect that they can protect against seepage though i don't really see the placement as under Molly's control. Besides remember Mother Summers line from CD about winter not being so cold it freezes the heart entirely. Their cold but not heartless. And probably not stupid enough to piss Molly off by doing anything to harm her family. n a way Nic probably got off lightly at the end of SG. If he'd succeeded Molly's reaction would not have been pretty...

[knnn]

From there we have a kidnapping plot around Splattercon which goes rather badly for the Outsider forces.  Eventually they do succeed and take Molly.  Now, in my model Mab is occupied and Maeve is the highest level Winter Court member around.  However it is done, Maeve betrays the defenders of AT and the battle is lost.  Who is in the attacking forces does not matter too much, but it is headed by infected characters - Maeve, Eldest Fetch and a Denarian (presumably Thorned Namschiel).  The idea is to kill all the defenders so that there is nobody to be a witness to future events.  Eldest Fetch is designated to kill Molly.  This would be done to have Harry see a senior member of the Winter Court do the killing.  That is why Molly is not killed off screen. 

I like your interpretation of events, but you still run into the old WoJ that Mab had Molly brought to AT.  Would your theory still work if Maeve's plan was to kill Molly outright and Mab pulled her to AT to protect her?

Ask yourself why Mab had Molly brought in. What chain of events did that set in motion?  What secondary effects came about because of it? 

[the neurovore of Zur-En-Aargh]

We have confirmation in Small Favor that Nic had no clue that any of the Fallen (at least any in his court) were present at AT.  IIRC, Harry pretty much calls out Nic about the attack when they had the convo at the Shea and Nic blinked in shock and hsi manner did seem to change has his brain was going overdrive at who among the fallen would do it...and why.

And we believe that at a point when Nicodemus was doing his very best to distract Harry by any means necessary, he'd be above appearing shocked ? Or not good at it, enough for Harry to see through him ?

[the neurovore of Zur-En-Aargh]

A single Denarian killing thousands of Arctis Tor defenders for Mab, only to let Harry in?  Why not just order all of the defenders away from Arctis Tor as part of the guard-the-borders program that was running? 

Because Harry would find that suspicious. We do have a WoJ that Mab would sacrifice her entire Court without an instant's hesitation if there was something to be gained from it.

[Eldest Gruff]

Because Harry would find that suspicious. We do have a WoJ that Mab would sacrifice her entire Court without an instant's hesitation if there was something to be gained from it.

I very much doubt that she would sacrifice her entire Court without getting at a minimum the Outsiders permanently banned from reality.

[the neurovore of Zur-En-Aargh]

I very much doubt that she would sacrifice her entire Court without getting at a minimum the Outsiders permanently banned from reality.

But sacrificing a thousand goblins to have Harry remove the Outsider-corrupted Scarecrow works for me.  (Even with WoJ that unfortunately I was wrong about Mab doing that to get Harry to dump Summer fire in Winter's well and thus enable Summer to hit the Red Court.)

[peregrine]

I don't agree that she did kill everyone just as window dressing, but she could have done so with just those we saw at AT no problem.  Keep in mind she has a massive force at the Gates, and can have her minions sex up whatever they need to replenish their numbers right quick.

[Eldest Gruff]

But sacrificing a thousand goblins to have Harry remove the Outsider-corrupted Scarecrow works for me.  (Even with WoJ that unfortunately I was wrong about Mab doing that to get Harry to dump Summer fire in Winter's well and thus enable Summer to hit the Red Court.)

Yeah Mab's job is to make Mab's life easier, not Summers. But do we really think Eldest Fetch was corrupted? I mean it spoke like a Fae who was proud of its station, fed off the fear like other fetches do, Summer powered fire killed it AND I think iirc Harry SAW it with his Sight. Even then he would have noticed a swirling corruption even if he was totally ignorant of what it was back then, something would have been off about the fetch.

[Arjan]

My theory,

I do not think the fallen are that interested in Mab, their main concern is humanity and not the Sidhe. Nemesis had however a clear motive for the attack.

During dead beat Lea was already with Mab but Mab did not know yet about Maeves infection. Lea knew about Maeves infection but apparently Nemesis could keep Lea from telling Mab.

But then Mab started to cure Lea and Nemesis knew what was happening. To protect Maeves cover Lea had to be removed from Mab's custody as soon as possible.

Nemesis gathered everything she could and tried a surprise attack. That attack failed and Maeve tried again with Harry. Harry was supposed to rescue his godmother together with Molly but Lea had gained enough self control to prevent this. A nemesis controlled Lea would have been able to persuade Harry to take her with him.

But Lea stayed where she was and Mab winked.

I might add that Mab probably feigned a weak moment to see who would show up in that Nemesis attack. That is how she learned about the fallen involvement.

I think there is enough proove to show that the circle is just a nemesis thing and the black council is Harry's working name for Nemesis activities.

The rest is puzzling out who is working for Mab and who is working for Nemesis (and maybe who thinks he is working for Mab or someone else but is really working for Nemesis)

[Conspiracy Theorist]

Mab was deliberately trying to draw out the attack and to have Harry witness the aftermath.

If you bear this in mind you can fit everything into place. Mab is a mistress of manipulation, she is manipulating both Harry and the Denarians, almost certainly with a view towards identifying the infected Denarians and who is behind them.

She has certainly drawn out Namshiel and probably Lucifer as being Nemesis infected, she also confirmed Maeve's infection.

Mab NEEDS Harry and to have Harry operating from his free will. She cannot command Harry, she can only persuade him, or manipulate him into thinking he has arrived at a particular point through his own decisions. We have yet to see why Mab needs Harry, doubtless it is linked into him being a Starborn.

[the neurovore of Zur-En-Aargh]

Yeah Mab's job is to make Mab's life easier, not Summers.

The thing about that is, required to oppose each other or no, Winter and Summer are explicitly shown to work together in CD, and every Faerie-themed book does end up with the results of both of their actions benefiting both courts.

But do we really think Eldest Fetch was corrupted?

Yes.  Because a) Harry's magic fades out before touching it, like with Lord Raith's explicitly Outsider-backed  protection, rather than just being bulled through like Grum in SK or Ursiel in DM, and b) its nature is different from other fetches, it looks like the Scarecrow rather than a fetch disguised as a Scarecrow under Harry's glamour-penetrating ointment which is off enough for me.

[Silkki]

The way I understood PG is that Lea had been infected by Nemesis, but rather than total control it made her go against her nature and due it she rebelled against her queen in order to gain more power for herself. Lea's rebellion then resulted in a huge attack aimed at the very heart of winter. In the end Mab triumphed and captured Lea and found out Lea was strong enough to resist Nemesis with help, so she made a Leacicle Harry finds during PG.

Why attack on AT? Because Lea wanted to take out Mab. And because outsiders want Mab to be removed.
Who attacked AT? Outsiders, Faeries and Mortals under Lea's command and odd bunch of Black Hats crazy enough to attack Mab.

[Arjan]

The way I understood PG is that Lea had been infected by Nemesis, but rather than total control it made her go against her nature and due it she rebelled against her queen in order to gain more power for herself. Lea's rebellion then resulted in a huge attack aimed at the very heart of winter. In the end Mab triumphed and captured Lea and found out Lea was strong enough to resist Nemesis with help, so she made a Leacicle Harry finds during PG.

Why attack on AT? Because Lea wanted to take out Mab. And because outsiders want Mab to be removed.
Who attacked AT? Outsiders, Faeries and Mortals under Lea's command and odd bunch of Black Hats crazy enough to attack Mab.

Except that in Changes Lea specifically stated:

“ Shame , child, is for those who fail to live up to the ideal of what they believe they should be.” She waved her hand. “It was  shame  that drove me to my queen, to beseech her aid.”

So I think Lea was wrestling with the infection and tried to overcome it unaided but realised that was impossible and went to Mab for aid.

[Silkki]

So I think Lea was wrestling with the infection and tried to overcome it unaided but realised that was impossible and went to Mab for aid.

I suspect Lea made things she shouldn't have before Mab froze her in the garden. It's possible she aided assault on AT and realized it was a mistake, and turned herself in afterwards. Who knows.

Look at it like this, if only thing Lea being infected accomplished was infection spreading to Maeve it's almost lame. Lea is much more central figure to winter than Maeve. She is the one in control of forces at the outer gate 50% of the time.

[Arjan]

I suspect Lea made things she shouldn't have before Mab froze her in the garden. It's possible she aided assault on AT and realized it was a mistake, and turned herself in afterwards. Who knows.

Except I think nemesis attacked to stop Lea from telling Mab about Maeves infection. Protecting that cover is the only reason for attacking arctis tor that makes sense to me.

For some reason Nemesis control of Lea was weakened and Lea ran to Mab, maybe Nemesis can control a limited number of people directly and it got overextended.

Or Lea's sense of self was just very strong, much stronger than Cat Sith.