Who Attacked Arctis Tor, and Why

[Eldest Gruff]

Fair enough.  What would the goal be, though?  Free Lea, if Mab is at the Gates?  Or defeat Mab if she were busy and distracted?  Or both, if she's there?

I've added it as an option, since it's specific enough to differentiate from just a general Circle or Outsider attack.

Strike a blow at the heart of Winter while Mab is otherwise occupied maybe. Gauge how well their hold over Maeve is progressing if it is an Outsider led offensive. If it is another party, they likely do not know that Mab is the protector of the Outer Gates and perhaps simply saw an opportunity to attack while she was gone and her second is indisposed of...after all Maeve had been shirking her duties before she became infected, perhaps an enemy like the Reds of the Circle could have viewed her as a less than capable defender and sought to bring down her forces as with the White Council or simply 'show Mab up' with a display of power. Say to her yes in fact we CAN get to you, you are not untouchable.

[namkcas]

To answer,  I don't know.  The whole AT scenario doesn't make sense to me.  I think of Harry showing up and getting Molly only seeing one Lea and Eldest Fetch.  Now Harry is retreating and then an entire hunting force shows up?  So it's okay for only infected Winter Fae to be there?

So, I am in the mood to ignore what Harry thinks and say how could that situation evolve.  If I go back to Mab only being able to speak through Grimalkin, is that her being mad about Lea or Maeve?  Maybe she doesn't know about Maeve until the attack on AT?  I am just confused.

[Griffyn612]

I am just confused.

That's always been the case for me when it comes to PROVEN GUILTY.  None of it made sense at the time, and it was my least favorite book.  Only when I started thinking about the Time Travel Harry theory did it become interesting.  But if we disregard that, and simply try and figure out what happened, even knowing everything we know now, it still doesn't make sense.

[raidem]

Also semi-related WAG. Anyone want to bet Arctis Minor is now positioned on the NN side of the Carpenter household?

I stated something like it but I placed more emphasis on Molly seeking refuge at the Carpenter's home.

I like your idea that MOLLY places her residence on other side of Carpenter home.  It probably would be some sort of contradiction in how it linked up but I could see Molly making a deal with Sarissa to somehow split the real estate.

[raidem]

I'm looking for theories on Who attacked Arctis Tor , and specifically What was their Motivation?

I can't see anything but two scenarios, as I don't see an actual motivation for anyone else other than those two.  But Eldest Gruff opinioned in another thread that there may be other factions with motivations to attack Arctis Tor.  I'd like to see what others think about the who and why of the attack.

Specifically, please provide at least the name of the group involved, and an actual reason for their attack.

IN MAB vs. OUT MAB (or at least IN Winter vs. OUT Winter)

This was a plot with one Mab plotting to take down the other Mab.
They each have their chess pieces.
Reality favored Mab ultimately won this battle by virtue of the fact that Team Dresden entered Arctis Tor and accomplished what they did there.
I think Proven Guilty is a contest between these two powers. 
Our Mab though lost one piece and that was Maeve.

Our Mab positioned her assets at the WALL.  There Mab used this opportunity to seize the capital, and place her goons there.  It was in essence a plot where Winter is at war with itself.

That is what I think happened.
I think there are lots of cases in which, OUT wants to kill Harry and at other times wants to keep Harry.  They are targeting him when he has turned different states.  Likewise, this occurs with other characters too.

[Carl]

I like your idea that MOLLY places her residence on other side of Carpenter home.  It probably would be some sort of contradiction in how it linked up but I could see Molly making a deal with Sarissa to somehow split the real estate.

Er what?

No idea what your talking about there.

To elaborate on my thinking though. It's as simple as: Arctis Minor is the WL's official residence. And Molly probably still thinks of eh Carpenter household as home so the natural associative place for Arctis Minor to be associated with would be the Carpenter Household.

[peregrine]

That depends on if Molly can control where the associations are.  If it's more based on function and general emotions, I imagine AM to be somewhere like the Russian Consulate or something similar.  The secondary government location of a cold nation.

[Griffyn612]

Er what?

No idea what your talking about there.

To elaborate on my thinking though. It's as simple as: Arctis Minor is the WL's official residence. And Molly probably still thinks of eh Carpenter household as home so the natural associative place for Arctis Minor to be associated with would be the Carpenter Household.

I'm not sure the angels would really approve.  You know what kind of dark and nasty creatures probably reside in Arctis Minor?  The angels on the Carpenter's roof are probably glaring into the Never-never constantly now.

And knowing that there's a connection between the two, would Molly risk any of the dark, cold, bitterness of Winter and Arctis Tor seeping through to her parents home?  I know its supposed to go the other way, but that seems like it might be possible. 

[raidem]

I'm not sure the angels would really approve.  You know what kind of dark and nasty creatures probably reside in Arctis Minor?  The angels on the Carpenter's roof are probably glaring into the Never-never constantly now.

And knowing that there's a connection between the two, would Molly risk any of the dark, cold, bitterness of Winter and Arctis Tor seeping through to her parents home?  I know its supposed to go the other way, but that seems like it might be possible. 

That is why I think Molly makes a deal with Sarissa.  To locate one of her bases in Summer territory which lines up with the Carpenter home.

Maybe, Sarissa gets a base inside or with Winter as a result.  Would be nice to see more Mab and Sarissa socialization going on and defeat Nemesis goal of separating the two.

[Griffyn612]

That is why I think Molly makes a deal with Sarissa.  To locate one of her bases in Summer territory which lines up with the Carpenter home.

Maybe, Sarissa gets a base inside or with Winter as a result.  Would be nice to see more Mab and Sarissa socialization going on and defeat Nemesis goal of separating the two.

I don't think that was Nemesis' goal.  I got the impression that was one of Maeve's personal goals, based on her feelings toward her mother and sister.  I doubt Nemesis cares either way, other than taking a pawn away from Mab.

[namkcas]

So I sat here over the last 2 days and am getting ready for another re-read of PG.  Going into that, I want propose my theory.

First to answer the questions from the OP:  AT was attacked by forces aligned with the Outsiders for the purpose of driving a wedge between Harry and Mab.

My theory in a bit more detail.

I am of the view that there is a lot of Fog of War in the DF.  I think that a lot less is known about characters as they enter the story by our main actors than we often assume.  In this case, Molly is a target of opportunity.  Her magic is noticed by some agent of the Outsiders (and I have trouble organizing them) and a trap is laid around Splattercon.  The idea is to kill Molly at AT and have Lea be the only being there to talk about what happens.  Lea will claim that Mab did the killing or that Mab ordered Lea to kill Molly. 

From there we have a kidnapping plot around Splattercon which goes rather badly for the Outsider forces.  Eventually they do succeed and take Molly.  Now, in my model Mab is occupied and Maeve is the highest level Winter Court member around.  However it is done, Maeve betrays the defenders of AT and the battle is lost.  Who is in the attacking forces does not matter too much, but it is headed by infected characters - Maeve, Eldest Fetch and a Denarian (presumably Thorned Namschiel).  The idea is to kill all the defenders so that there is nobody to be a witness to future events.  Eldest Fetch is designated to kill Molly.  This would be done to have Harry see a senior member of the Winter Court do the killing.  That is why Molly is not killed off screen. 

In typical Harry fashion, he overcomes the Scarecrow and wins the day.  At the same point (in a bit of confusion), Lea's infection is revealed to Harry.  Mab assists Team Harry's exit via time manipulation (slowing the pursuers) and winks at him to show Harry that she has seen what he has done and approves of it.

So, I want to point out here what is supposed to happen again from the Outsider side's perspective.  Molly is killed, hurting Harry's relationship with Michael.  On top of that, Molly's death would be placed squarely at the feet of the Winter Court.  Just FYI, this might drive Harry to take up the Coin and take him out of Mab's WK list forever.  Molly's death at AT would have definitely put an end to any potential Mab/Harry hookup.  Imagine the following line:

Lea: "Dear Child, mine Queen has gone Mab.  She has killed your friend's daughter and imprisoned me to keep me from warning you.  Maeve can help you protect your friends.  Seek her out and tell her we spoke."

Edit:  My view is this is the place and time where Mab found out that Maeve was infected.

[peregrine]

Why drag Molly to AT to do that?  Why not just kill Molly whenever, and blame Mab, somehow?  Plus, the part about how Mab can't kill people who aren't associated with the fae, and as we saw in SK, palling around with someone who is doesn't cut it.

  And why would it hurt Harry's relationship with Michael, since at that point, Harry was not Molly's mentor or anything other than family friend? 

[raidem]

I am of the view that there is a lot of Fog of War in the DF.  I think that a lot less is known about characters as they enter the story by our main actors than we often assume.  In this case, Molly is a target of opportunity.  Her magic is noticed by some agent of the Outsiders (and I have trouble organizing them) and a trap is laid around Splattercon.  The idea is to kill Molly at AT and have Lea be the only being there to talk about what happens.  Lea will claim that Mab did the killing or that Mab ordered Lea to kill Molly. 

From there we have a kidnapping plot around Splattercon which goes rather badly for the Outsider forces.  Eventually they do succeed and take Molly.  Now, in my model Mab is occupied and Maeve is the highest level Winter Court member around.  However it is done, Maeve betrays the defenders of AT and the battle is lost.  Who is in the attacking forces does not matter too much, but it is headed by infected characters - Maeve, Eldest Fetch and a Denarian (presumably Thorned Namschiel).  The idea is to kill all the defenders so that there is nobody to be a witness to future events.  Eldest Fetch is designated to kill Molly.  This would be done to have Harry see a senior member of the Winter Court do the killing.  That is why Molly is not killed off screen. 

In typical Harry fashion, he overcomes the Scarecrow and wins the day.  At the same point (in a bit of confusion), Lea's infection is revealed to Harry.  Mab assists Team Harry's exit via time manipulation (slowing the pursuers) and winks at him to show Harry that she has seen what he has done and approves of it.

So, I want to point out here what is supposed to happen again from the Outsider side's perspective.  Molly is killed, hurting Harry's relationship with Michael.  On top of that, Molly's death would be placed squarely at the feet of the Winter Court.  Just FYI, this might drive Harry to take up the Coin and take him out of Mab's WK list forever.  Molly's death at AT would have definitely put an end to any potential Mab/Harry hookup.  Imagine the following line:

Very good, it is rather IN and OUT of you.

So, I want to point out here what is supposed to happen again from the Outsider side's perspective.  Molly is killed, hurting Harry's relationship with Michael.  On top of that, Molly's death would be placed squarely at the feet of the Winter Court.  Just FYI, this might drive Harry to take up the Coin and take him out of Mab's WK list forever.  Molly's death at AT would have definitely put an end to any potential Mab/Harry hookup.  Imagine the following line:

I think that is what they tried.  It failed.  (OUT side failed)
Now, Inside gets there turn at BAT.

[namkcas]

Peregrine,

No better place to frame Mab than AT.  And remember, I have Eldest Fetch killing Molly under orders.  So Mab does not do the killing.  The best part is you have Lea right there to blame Mab.  Now Harry may not like Lea but he thinks at that point that she can not lie.  So, if Lea says "Mab orders Molly killed".  You don't think Harry will believe that?

Harry fails to rescue Molly...you can't imagine that would make them less close?  Charity for sure would rail against Harry forever.  Michael would be pushed by her to move away from Harry.

[raidem]

I doubt Nemesis cares either way, other than taking a pawn away from Mab.

I'd say the things you do while mostly infected is WHAT Nemesis mostly cares about.

Also, think of the series as mostly one way from past=>future.  At a pivotal point, Harry gets to travel from future=>past.  Why? Because the other side already did.  They took future Harry on a path to hell from future=>past.  So there is an imbalance because In hasn't played all their chips yet.

It isn't until Harry recognizes the significance of "there you are" within Uriel's hint that "no matter where you go, there you are."  Does Inside's unspent chips come into play.  I think MAC may be a future echo of this HARRY, or at least of SOMETHING, who hasn't yet spent the chips.

I'd say that Storm Front is nearly when a merging of Harry occurs on the return trip.  Maybe it will go as far back as to when HWWB makes his play in Harry's past during the Harry and Justin encounter.  Maybe more precisely back to when a choice creates an inconsistency when Harry first learned used magic. 

Think of the emotional anguish it would cause for Harry that one of his past/future IN/OUT selves was the Shadowman, Victor Sells.