Who Attacked Arctis Tor, and Why

[Griffyn612]

I'm looking for theories on Who attacked Arctis Tor , and specifically What was their Motivation?

I can't see anything but two scenarios, as I don't see an actual motivation for anyone else other than those two.  But Eldest Gruff opinioned in another thread that there may be other factions with motivations to attack Arctis Tor.  I'd like to see what others think about the who and why of the attack.

Specifically, please provide at least the name of the group involved, and an actual reason for their attack.

i.e. (the only two theories I see as being legitimate)

The Circle
Who: The 'Circle', a faction of powerful beings working together with common goals, while also pursuing personal gain and personal own goals.
 > Theoretical Members: Cowl, Maeve, Vito Malvora, Thorned Namshiel, Arianna Ortega, Lord Raith, Lord Omogh, Peabody, others
 > Participated in the Attack: Thorned Namshiel, unknown others
When: During the events of DEAD BEAT
 > When Harry summoned Lea and Mab came instead, the Circle took their shot.  Maeve opened a gate to Arctis Tor for her allies and then sped up time at Arctis Tor.  In the minutes that Mab was away, hours passed at Arctis Tor, and the Circle had ample time to press the defenders.  When Mab returned, the attackers were routed before they got to the Winter Garden.
Why: Multiple goals, including weaken Winter, occupy Winter's forces, retrieve Lea
 > The events of DEAD BEAT were epic in scale.  The Red Court nearly wiped out the White Council.  Their attacks should have kept the White Council too busy to respond to the Darkhallow attempt.  If it had succeeded, Cowl would have then had the power to finish off the White Council.  But to harass the wizards in Faerie would draw the ire of the Fae courts.  The attack on Arctis Tor successfully put Winter into a defensive mode, which then did the same for Summer, thus freeing the Ways for the Ramps to pursue the White Court.
 > Lea might also have been a member of the Circle, as she was working with some of its theoretical members in GRAVE PERIL.  If so, they would want to free her so that she could join them in taking on Mab.  Lea is only second to Mab in Winter, and with her and Maeve combining forces with the other Circle attackers, they might have stood a shot at defeating Mab.
Relevant Plot Details
 > The Fae's inaction during the Ramps' initial intrusion two days prior to the Darkhallow are explained by Luccio, in that the Fae were caught off-guard.  But the Fae's inactivity for the next nine months goes unexplained, other than Winter being on guard at the border, and thus occupying Summer.  There doesn't seem to be a reason for Winter to guard the border prior to the attack on Arctis Tor.  But if it had already been attacked, and Mab was in hyper-defensive mode because of the betrayals involved, it would explain the entire time-span.
 > The speed up of time in Arctis Tor to allow time for the attack is supported by the events of PROVEN GUILTY.  While just minutes passed in Arctis Tor, a day passed in the real world.  Using the reverse flow, hours could have passed in Arctis Tor while minutes passed in the real world, when Mab was speaking with Harry. 
 > This theory gives a credible explanation to how Mab found out about Maeve's betrayal.  She was still speaking as of DEAD BEAT, but we know that some point after Harry's talk with her at the lake, Mab learned of Maeve's betrayal/infection. 
 > This theory does not address the smell of hellfire that still lingered around Arctis Tor nine months later in PROVEN GUILTY.  But it does allow for enough time for the remains of the fallen warriors to rot away to bones.


The Outsiders/NemesisFormerlyKnownAsBlackCouncil
Who: Nemesis agents and summoned Outsiders
 > Theoretical members: Namshiel, Maeve, others we haven't seen
When: Some time after the events of DEAD BEAT, but before Harry's arrival in Arctis Tor in PROVEN GUILTY
 > In PROVEN GUILTY, Harry advises that the attack could have taken place thousands of years ago or just minutes.  The intensity of the emotions he got from the scene made it seem more recent, but the decayed bodies implied older.  Some point between DEAD BEAT and Harry's raid would be enough of a window for these to both be true.
Why: Defeat Mab, Weaken Winter, Draw troops from the Gates, Free Lea, Winter Wellspring target
 > As the leader of Winter, Mab is the choice target for the Outsiders to defeat.  If they were able to reach her and defeat her, infected Maeve would become the person in charge of the Gates. 
 > The attack could have been aimed at drawing troops from the Gates.  With all of Winter already on guard around Winter's borders, they might have been under the impression that others would come to the aide of Arctis Tor under attack.
 > Infected Lea likely has information, albeit limited, on Nemesis and how it works.  On top of that, she's a powerful ally second only to Mab in Winter.  If they could free her, at minimum they'd be regaining a powerful ally and removing Mab's access to intelligence on Nemesis.  At best, Lea could then turn against Mab along with the attackers, and possibly defeat her with their help.  If not, then they'd at least have a powerful ally with intricate knowledge of the defense of the Gates who could help attack them from within with other forces.
 > Part of me wonders if there isn't also a threat to Winter if something happens to its Wellspring.  I'm not sure that it could be corrupted per se, since Mab locked up an infected Lea in it.  But part of me wonders if by attacking the Wellspring with a lot of power, it might weaken Winter in some capacity, however briefly, that would help the attackers at the Gates.
Relevant Plot Points
 > This theory does not explain why Winter is on guard for the full nine months between DEAD BEAT and PROVEN GUILTY.  It makes sense to be on guard after the attack on Arctis Tor, but not before. 
 > This theory explains who there could be time enough for the bodies to have decomposed, and also a short enough time to leave the traces of hellfire in the air.

[Tami Seven]

Wait, the Black Circle and the Black Council are synonymous. The Outsiders are the Outsiders, they are not the same as the Black Council.

They may work together on occasion, but they are not the same, as far as I know.

[knnn]

You might also want to add an option for "Other", just in case.   

...<cough> Time Travel </cough>   

[Eldest Gruff]

You might also want to add an option for "Other", just in case.   

...<cough> Time Travel </cough>   

Don't encourage He who must not be given a Tardis.

[Acalanthis]

Honestly, I think that the Outsiders are the only ones with the oomph to even think of taking Mab on in the heart of her own power.  Yes, Cowl and the rest of the Circle represent a power that could go toe-to-toe with the Senior Council in a fair fight any day, but if I remember correctly, Jim said something about how it would take basically everyone who took on Kemmler, PLUS knowing Mab's Name and isolating her from her power to even put a dent in her defenses.

As for the Hellfire, maybe Nemesis meat puppeted Nammy-boy over there?

[Dashkull]

My personal WAG is that there was a breakthrough at the Outer Gates. Rashid came to Chicago to warn Harry about black magic and to repair little Chicago (possibly under Mab's orders to do so) and while he was there, the outer gates were breached and Nemesis gathered as many follower as it could to use it to press their advantage to attack Mab. Thats why Namsciel was there, and whoever else Nemesis could muster. The point of the attack was multiple-fold, but the primary one was to give the Red Court the chance to press its attack on the white council, since it forced Winter to remain on the defensive and Summer to counter the inaction with inaction of their own (silly Sidhe!). Another possible motive of the attack was to try to free Lea, quite possibly the most powerful being we know of that it managed to nfect.

[Lawgiver]

At its root I think "Outsiders" explains it all. As for motivation... let's see. Harry says he smelled Hellfire. That would mean one of the Fallen was involved. Which means there was a Denarian in place: we presume Thorned Namshiel. As we've discussed the likelihood that Nico is working against Outsiders (and if we also presume Namshiel was following Nico's orders at AT) then it would seem that someone was going after Outsider influence... destroy Lea and/or Maeve or,(iirc the presumption was that Mab was insane/infected at the time) Mab (though tough to credit that -- a lesser powered target would be easier). In the other case, where Namshiel was going against Nico's orders, then it would look like a rescue mission for Lea. Other incidentals such as the attack on the Wellspring are just 'addons' -- targets of opportunity. Remember, the bigger players (like Nico) rarely do anything for just one reason.

So, seems to me that (with as few names as we have to work with) we have to decide first whether Namshiel was working for or against Nico. What we've been given seems to suggest strongly that it's against... but, hey, Nico's been known to lie before.... We need something more solid before it can go much further, in my estimation.

[peregrine]

Wait, the Black Circle and the Black Council are synonymous. The Outsiders are the Outsiders, they are not the same as the Black Council.

They may work together on occasion, but they are not the same, as far as I know.

Yeah.  Harry definitely lumped Cowl in as the Black Council, which Cowl calls the Circle.  Now, they may or may not be connected with the Outsiders, and Harry doesn't know what's going on with anything resembling certainty, but when he's talking about the Black Council, he's meaning the Circle.  Even if he's wrong, that's what he means.

[raidem]

You might also want to add an option for "Other", just in case.   

...<cough> Time Travel </cough>   

Don't encourage He who must not be given a Tardis.

Was my name just called?
Consider this, there is a IN MAB and an OUT MAB.  They each get turns to play.  IN MAB is countering OUT MAB.  Karrin plays a pivotal role in countering a Nemesis favored Mab.

[knnn]

I keep going back to this WoJ:

which begs the question how badass does a badass have to be to wound Mab as such?

The Wild Hunt lead by a couple of Denarians such at Thorned Namshiel, The Erlking and a bunch of Outsiders could get the job done. That would have been a fight to see (from a distance).

Nah, they wouldn't even come close.  I mean... it's like comparing apples and... and hand grenades. 

Just about the best they could hope to accomplish would be to force Mab to make an effort.  Though when Mab came for them, it wouldn't be a kick-down-the-door-and kick-ass kind of encounter.  It would be a One-two-three-four-five-Hey-weren't-there SIX-of-us-here-a-second-ago? situation.

So even with a mix of Outsiders and Denarians, there is zero chance of hurting Mab.

[Lawgiver]

I keep going back to this WoJ:

Nah, they wouldn't even come close.  I mean... it's like comparing apples and... and hand grenades. 

Just about the best they could hope to accomplish would be to force Mab to make an effort.  Though when Mab came for them, it wouldn't be a kick-down-the-door-and kick-ass kind of encounter.  It would be a One-two-three-four-five-Hey-weren't-there SIX-of-us-here-a-second-ago? situation.


So even with a mix of Outsiders and Denarians, there is zero chance of hurting Mab.

SK has Lea telling Harry specifically that Mab and Titania are powers equivalent to Archangels and lesser deities. That's pretty tough. If Mab has power roughly equivalent to Uriel (archangel) who can destroy galaxies with only a little effort, I don't think a couple of Denarians (who are not Fallen themselves) and a few B-movie 'tentacled horrors' are gonna present much of a threat.

[raidem]

about the vector of power, ot was in a thread a few weeks ago, but is most likely buried under pages of stuff, I believe it was in TC chapt 1. Prolly best way is to look up what Jim has posted. He also confirmed that Mab is injured not crazy.

Then again, "crazy" is generally considered to be a lack of connection with reality--and a lot of characters in the Dresden Files can MAKE reality.  They might have a seriously skewed idea of the way reality should be, but if they can make it happen then they aren't crazy, per se.

Jim

I wanted to ask about the girl at Dresden’s grave. Was it Mab or Leah? Or was she someone else?
Mab and Demonreach both made sure they had a proxy present in those two conversations at Dresden’s grave.

One Proxy of Mab was when she was IN other was when she was OUT.

But no one does cold-blooded like the Queen of Winter.  Mab's been in the business a long time, she's got a balance sheet, and she is *not* going to come out in the red--
--unless, of course, she really *has* stripped a gear, as Lily and Maeve believe.  In which case there's a stark raving bonkers demigoddess whose powers are no longer being held in check by the Escher-esque code of Sidhe behavior.  And that's all kinds of bad.
But hey.  It's probably not that.  I mean, not *everything* that happens can be the absolute worst possible possibility, right?
Jim

Mab IS infected.  (She has split personality at the moment due to being IN and OUT) 
Think of it as a wavelength.  Say she spans a large section of REALITY.  Some of these realities are getting severly chewed upon by Nemesis, others are fairly stable.  She has very strong will, so even in nemesis favored territory she can counter Nemesis though not as adroitly when she is in reality favored territory.

[Mira]

  My vote goes for "other" at this point, because I think there were allies involved.  There is evidence of Denarian involvement, or someone or thing that could use Hell Fire, Harry confirmed that.. We know in the war against the Reds, there were Outsiders involved in the battles..  There were traders on the Senior Council, most likely working for the Circle..  There is also evidence that the attack was a tactic, and there was some kind of long game thing going on with Summer.  It could be another group we haven't even heard of yet, using everyone as a gigantic cat's paw.

[Phariah]

ok. I always said that PG was the trickiest book yet. layers upon layers. this is a look at how Mab works. she and Titania worked out a deal or Mab calculated even better than I think.

the attack would never have won through. it was meant to allow Harry a chance to get Molly. Harry would never had been able to gain access and win through if the fortress wasn't hammered already. this was the favor Mab owed Nico I think.

[Eldest Gruff]

ok. I always said that PG was the trickiest book yet. layers upon layers. this is a look at how Mab works. she and Titania worked out a deal or Mab calculated even better than I think.

the attack would never have won through. it was meant to allow Harry a chance to get Molly. Harry would never had been able to gain access and win through if the fortress wasn't hammered already. this was the favor Mab owed Nico I think.

Mab owed Anduriel a favor from way back when she became watcher over the Outer Gates, there is a WOJ floating around about it from not that long ago. Nothing to do with Arctis Tor.