Poll

Who is the culprit (SF-FM-BR)?

Arriana
7 (6.7%)
Lord Raith
10 (9.6%)
Mavra
13 (12.5%)
Erkling
3 (2.9%)
Cowl
20 (19.2%)
Luccio
5 (4.8%)
Elaine
3 (2.9%)
None of the above.
9 (8.7%)
Nemesis is involved
32 (30.8%)
Injun Joe
2 (1.9%)

Total Members Voted: 49

Author Topic: Connections pt. 2: Suspect for SF-FM-BR-LH (Cold Days Spoilers)  (Read 25009 times)

Offline Cenphx

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Connections pt. 2: Suspect for SF-FM-BR-LH (Cold Days Spoilers)
« on: December 20, 2012, 02:00:15 AM »
Suspects
Lord Raith: Teacher for Victor Sells?

Considered a likely suspect because Sells worked at SilverCo, reminiscent of the other named Raith company, SilverLight, from Blood Rites. Sells was friends with his boss at work. He obtained books about magic and Raith has an extensive, locked away library. Furthermore, Sells learned to fuel his rituals with sex; to fuel his magic from other people’s emotions, each a very-WCV modus operandus.

However, much of this evidence could suggest any WCV actively affiliated with the Raith family and businesses. Lord Raith did work with or teach “assistant” magical practitioners, see Madge in Blood Rites, but it seems that he uses females not males (Madge, Margaret LeFay, Lara).

Most importantly, Lord Raith could potentially at least be responsible for Sells and the entropy curse in BR, he is not a viable suspect for the love seatbelts or the hexenwolf belts. By the time of Love Hurts, which takes place between Turn Coat and Changes, Lord Raith is ostensibly a puppet of Lara’s. Even if he is not Lara’s puppet, the love seatbelts were being used to cut down on potential food for the WCV. Whoever was teaching LeBlanc need not share her goals, but certainly Lord Raith would not help her cull the WCV’s food supply.

We can eliminate Lord Raith.

Erlking: Distributor of the Hexenwolf belts? (see Reply #7, 29)

Considered a likely suspect because the belt creates a predator-hunter in the wearer; the FBI base connects to his place in the NN; and the FBI are hunters, the belt is a tool of hunters. The proposed motive for the Erlking to give out the belts was because the Erlking’s goal is to be left alone to hunt and he deals harshly with those who interfere. Others, like Odin, can lead the Wild Hunt, and thus interfere. Marcone is very connected to Odin. Therefore, the guess is that Erlking is messing with Marcone because Marcone is one of Odin’s descendants

However, the hexenwolves are driven to kill in a way that is not sporting and would not be condoned by the Erlking and the victims are not prey worthy of a hunt. When Harry soulgazes Denton, the agent’s soul, beyond the erosion caused by his years working as a cop, is covered in a layer of filth and slime, most likely a result of the belt. The Erlking’s magic would not be corruptive like this. Also, Odin and the Erlking do not seem to be at odds with one about who leads the hunt; they were okay with Harry taking over briefly. 

Most importantly, the Erlking has no connection at all to the love seatbelts, to Victor Sells or to the entropy ritual/curse used in Blood Rites. We should also consider the WoJ about whether we have met the people who created the belts where  he answered, “That's another "I'm not gonna tell you" question. I will say, "kind of," "not really," and "yes." But we'll get into more of that during Cold Days as well.”  [See http://www.jimbutcheronline.com/bb/index.php/topic,22558.msg1252323.html#msg1252323]

This WoJ could refer to three characters being involved, one of whom we’ve seen but don’t really know (e.g. Cowl; Mavra, if the body saw her in is a puppet), one of whom we’ve heard of but never met, (e.g. Margaret LeFay; Justin) and one we definitely know (e.g Lord Raith, Elaine, Erlking). It could also all be referring to the same character, who we have met, but who is infected by Nemesis, which has not yet been revealed to us, such that “yes” we’ve met the character, but we only have “kind of” met the creator of the belts, which is more Nemesis than the infected character. The second interpretation makes more sense because it incorporates the second part of Jim’s statement that we got information about the creator of the belt in Cold Days, which I take to refer to us learning about Nemesis and how it infects people.

We can eliminate the Erlking.

Cowl:

Certainly would have the magical power/ability to create the belts, the ThreeEye potion and has probably been around long enough to be aware of the bloodline curse. But in DB when Cowl first meets Harry outside of Bock Ordered Books he says something like, “I want to see what has the Wardens so nervous.”  This suggests Cowl wasn't around in SF or FM.  He does not have the knowledge of Harry which would be shared by whoever was involved with the Hexenwolves or Victor Sells. 

Mavra: (see Reply #36, 43, 55; 50; plus Drakul connection at #57)

Also would have the magical power/ability to create the belts, the ThreeEye potion and has probably been around long enough to be aware of the bloodline curse. Additionally, in Grave Peril, we see her actively teaching magic to lesser practitioner, which fits with Sells.

I haven’t thought about her as much as the first few suspects. I don’t think she is a good fit for all LH=FM=SF=BR. But Mavra could use more consideration.

Nemesis:

Given the WoJ that we learned something about the makers of the hexenwolf belts in Cold Days, I concluded he was referring to Nemesis. However, knowing someone is infected with Nemesis does not help to narrow our suspect pool.

Red Court vamps (see Reply #30)

My WAG:

I am trying to operate on the principle that my theory should be as simple as possible, but no simpler. So I will not introduce an unnecessarily complicated scenario, if a more straightforward one works for all of the relevant plots in Storm Front, Fool Moon, Blood Rites and Love Hurts. I know that just because the resulting theory is simple, does not mean it is valid.

We know that there is at least one person above LeBlanc (LH) and Denton (FM). There is no reason to presume that this person is other than the person who created the belts. Therefore, we are looking for a wizard. Given the complexity of the ThreeEye potion and the belts, I believe the wizard in question must great ability, if not brute strength like Harry.  In other words, a White Council level wizard. A consistent pattern emerges from the fact that the most likely suspect for each event is *inconsistent*. In other words, a fall guy is in place, so none of the suspected groups is where we will find our suspect. Given Lord Raith’s penchant for working with female wizards, I believe he would continue with this pattern after Maggie Sr. escaped him, so we are looking for a female wizard of WC strength. Finally, given the WoJ about the wolf belts, I believe this strong female wizard is infected with Nemesis.

Here’s where I get crazy. The connections between these events are better at eliminating suspects, than positively identifying anyone, but I’ve never been afraid of lobbing a WAG.

My two suspects are Elaine and/or Luccio.

Beyond the above reasoning, one reason I consider Elaine especially is as follows: the tag word Jim uses for the magic in the belt is “delicate”. Harry says that “LeBlanc was no practitioner. She can’t be the one who was working the whammy….This is a delicate, difficult magic. There might not be three people on the entire White Council who could pull it off.” [LH (331)]. (Don’t forget that whammy is also a reference to the magic in the wolf belts.) Jim uses tags, or short phrases or specific words, to call to mind a certain character: “Tags are words you hang upon your character when you describe them. When you're putting things together, for each character, pick a word or two or three to use in describing them. Then, every so often, hit on one of those words in reference to them, and avoid using them elsewhere when possible. By doing this, you'll be creating a psychological link between those words and that strong entry image of your character.” http://jimbutcher.livejournal.com/1698.html.

One tag for Elaine is that her magic is “delicate” and graceful: grace, style, elegance [SK 152]; elegant, slender, graceful, grey storm cloud eyes [SK 115]. She is responsible for the mind fog in Summer Knight, [SK 363], which was a “dangerous and delicate spell”, and which was rare [SK 295] and so strong that Harry was not sure that even a Queen could pull it off outside of faery [SK 304]. I also think this mind fog shows a precision with mind magic that is echoed in the way each of the belts gets inside the heads of the wearers. I think the belts are a form of mind magic more than just a plain spell.

As for Luccio, in order to be able to pull off the belts in LH, she would have to be faking whether she still has magic after the body swap in Dead Beat. Setting that aside, there is some evidence that Luccio was around in Storm Front.

Harry goes to the police station: “the desk sergeant wasn’t the mustached old warhorse whom I had run into before, but a graying matron with steely eyes who disapproved of me and my lifestyle in a single glance, then made me wait while she called up Murphy.” [SF 151.] Given that this is the first book and we’ve never met the usual desk sergeant, why did Harry *need* to tell us that the desk sergeant was new? Consider Luccio’s description: “solid old matriarch of a woman, as tall as most men and built like someone who did plenty of physical labor. Her hair was a solid shade of iron grey, cropped into a neat military cut.” [DB 349]. Perhaps he had to point out the new sergeant so we could later figure out that Luccio was around?

There is other evidence that magic is being done at the police station during SF. Harry specifically noted in this book that static during a phone call usually happened on his end of the phone. [SF 171-72]. Early on in the book, the telephone connection to Murphy at the station was so clear Harry could hear her drop an Alka-Seltzer into a glass. [SF 108]. Later, Harry tried to call Murphy at her desk at the police station, but Carmichael answered because Murphy had left to go arrest Harry. Carmichael acted someone was standing next to him, he pretended like he was talking to someone other than Harry. There was static on Carmichael’s end of the call, which was scratchy, noisy, and which squealed with static, [SF 281-82], which is a signal that someone is doing magic at the other end. Harry then immediately called Murphy at his office and there was no problem with static. [SF 282].

Now consider that in LH, Harry calls the WC and gets Luccio. He asks her about whether any black magic pinging in Chicago. Luccio has no info for him, but does asks what he thinks is going on. Harry also uses a few lines to explain that because of all the magic at the other end of the call he may have trouble hearing Luccio [LH 308-09], reminiscent of how he has problems only on the other end of the line in SF. What is unusual about these lines is that so much is dedicated to telling us very little. In contrast, Harry later summarizes using all his other supernatural contacts in about one line. So what purpose does the long exchange with Luccio serve? Is it a signal to remember where else similar problems happened?

Luccio as a suspect answers several unanswered questions. A question left over from Storm Front is why did Morgan show up when he did in SF and how did he know about the murders of Tommy Tom and Jennifer Stanton?  Morgan says, “Someone killed two people with sorcery last night, I think it was you.”  Was it just a coincidence or did someone point him in the right direction at the right time? Luccio, as Morgan’s mentor, would be in a position to provide him information he would not question.

If Luccio is infected with Nemesis/is a traitor, it explains why Cowl is constantly moaning about how the WC is corrupt. It could bring LaFortier’s death into a different light. Could it explain why Mab sent the hobs to the train station in SmF-were they after Luccio, not the Archive? Could it explain where Thorned Namshiel’s coin disappeared to? She was in the helicopter as well. Could this explain that funky letter that is sent to Harry where she claims the WC has turned on the wardens, causing him to look elsewhere for help? Could it explain why her versions of Harry’s mother differ from the other accounts we get of her? Could it explain why her story about Ivy’s mother is not only wrong, per the Archive’s own account, but wrong in a way which seems calculated to make Ivy despair? Could it explain why she tries to convince Harry not to console Ivy after SmF? Could it explain why she receives a non-fatal, non-maiming wound in the first moments of the battle against Shagnasty at Chateau Raith which allows her to be left behind at Harry’s apartment, perhaps so she could be one of the two wizards we know appeared at DemonReach during TurnCoat? Could it explain how the ghouls knew where Camp Kaboom was?

There was more, but my brain is melting.

Edit:  I added a line for the Red Court vampires as a suspect and I listed the replies which contained the theories supporting each suspect so its easier to find what you are looking for in the thread.
« Last Edit: December 22, 2012, 10:30:31 PM by Cenphx »

Offline Mars447

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Re: Connections pt. 2: Suspect for SF-FM-BR-LH (Cold Days Spoilers)
« Reply #1 on: December 20, 2012, 02:14:27 AM »
Unlikely on both counts, IMO, because the world is not that small.  Elaine is most likely not the only practitioner of "delicate", "intricate", and "graceful" magic out there, plus we've seen nothing from Elaine that indicates that she's any great shakes at crafting enchantments or that she'd be okay with making a love spell belt (especially since she would have just come off from recovering from her mental trauma from Justin's enthrallment).  Likewise with Luccio, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that pre-body swap Luccio was not the only tough old bird in the White Council, let alone the world.  Plus, you would think that Harry, who by SF would still be living under the threat of death by a Warden's sword, at any moment, would be able to recognize what their leader looked like.

As for the events of SmF, we know that by then Luccio had been compromised... by Peabody's mind whammy, alongside the entire Senior Council and a good half of the Wardens.  After all, it was in SmF that she started putting the moves on Harry, which at the time seemed pretty out of the blue but we now know to have been due to Peabody's influence.  Whether or not Mab sicced hobs on her because she knew Luccio had been compromised by somebody under Outsider influence is anyone's guess, but I will say that the information she gave us on the Archive actually made more sense than "The Archive is the Archive starting from birth", which you'd think would turn vessels of the Archive into raving loons 100% of the time.
« Last Edit: December 20, 2012, 02:24:02 AM by Mars447 »

Offline Cenphx

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Re: Connections pt. 2: Suspect for SF-FM-BR-LH (Cold Days Spoilers)
« Reply #2 on: December 20, 2012, 02:23:33 AM »
I agree that other people may practice magic that is "delicate", but that's not the point. The point is that Jim uses this word specifically as a shorthand for Elaine. He does not use that tag for other people.

As for whether Harry should have recognized Luccio if he saw her in SF, he didn't recognize Martha Liberty when he saw her in SK, because he has limited contact with the WC. The first and only time before SK he was at a meeting, he had a bag over his head. The better question is why, when Harry saw Luccio again in DB, did he not remember her from SF? Harry's memory seems to have been futzed with any number of times. Whoever is responsible for these belts seems to be adept at mind magic. If they did not want Harry to remember something vital, I don't think he would.

That being said, my guesses about the suspects is weak, I know. I think the connections I've made between the various plots is really useful at eliminating certain people, but its not conclusive proof against anyone, at this point.

Offline madness

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Re: Connections pt. 2: Suspect for SF-FM-BR-LH (Cold Days Spoilers)
« Reply #3 on: December 20, 2012, 05:32:00 AM »
The whole reason that Rashid was the one to help put Luccio's mind back together at the end of Turn Coat was so that he could inspect her for Nemesis infection, IMO.

We know that Rashid was inside of Luccio's mind and we know that he cleared her of Nemesis infection (unless he is using her as an unknowing double agent) so it seems wise to assume that she is not and was not infected.

Offline Elegast

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Re: Connections pt. 2: Suspect for SF-FM-BR-LH (Cold Days Spoilers)
« Reply #4 on: December 20, 2012, 08:20:27 AM »
Why no one talks of the Reds? IMHO, the most likely suspect. I'll post a more detailed answer later.
« Last Edit: December 20, 2012, 11:49:17 AM by Elegast »
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Offline Paladino

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Re: Connections pt. 2: Suspect for SF-FM-BR-LH (Cold Days Spoilers)
« Reply #5 on: December 20, 2012, 10:36:13 AM »
If Love Hurt didn't happen after Turn Coat, I'd say Peabody was the perfect suspect..

Now, I'm not sure about Elaine, but I think she is on the level, she came really close to die on WN fighting against an outsider plan..
 
As for Luccio, I think the Gatekeeper took the oportunity to give her a good scam after the events on TC.

Offline nick012000

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Re: Connections pt. 2: Suspect for SF-FM-BR-LH (Cold Days Spoilers)
« Reply #6 on: December 20, 2012, 11:12:02 AM »
Why no one talks of the Reds? IMHO, the most likely suspect. I'll post a most detailed answer later.
Considering that the spell they were using in Changes was a fully-powered version of the same spell Sells was using, I definitely think that a Nemesis-infected Red Court vampire was behind him, at least.
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Offline Ms Duck

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Re: Connections pt. 2: Suspect for SF-FM-BR-LH (Cold Days Spoilers)
« Reply #7 on: December 20, 2012, 11:24:54 AM »
I agree that other people may practice magic that is "delicate", but that's not the point. The point is that Jim uses this word specifically as a shorthand for Elaine. He does not use that tag for other people.

As for whether Harry should have recognized Luccio if he saw her in SF, he didn't recognize Martha Liberty when he saw her in SK, because he has limited contact with the WC. The first and only time before SK he was at a meeting, he had a bag over his head. The better question is why, when Harry saw Luccio again in DB, did he not remember her from SF? Harry's memory seems to have been futzed with any number of times. Whoever is responsible for these belts seems to be adept at mind magic. If they did not want Harry to remember something vital, I don't think he would.

That being said, my guesses about the suspects is weak, I know. I think the connections I've made between the various plots is really useful at eliminating certain people, but its not conclusive proof against anyone, at this point.

Molly also gets the 'delicate' moniker, im afraid.

Im 90% certain that the actual creator of the belts, at least, is the erlking.

for these reasons:

his statements in changes about how he competes with those who interfere with his hunts

Jim's woj about how such competition is settled:
Quote
All of which doesn't even TOUCH on the way power is actually balanced in Faerie, because neither Mab nor the Erlking would attempt such a thing, or /consider/ attempting such a thing.  It would upset the natural order.  Conflicts between most of the Fae powers are very subtle, and generally involve proxies, pride, sex or all of the above


the fact we see in CD odin competeing with Erlking

Odin's connection to Marcone

The Erlking's connection to the FBI

a lost WOJ, in which someone (not me, may have been Landing I think) had put 2+2 together a few years back, and Jim had remarked on the forum that someone had figured it out. Jim , as i recall, did not say which theory was correct but many of us assumed from the timing and the comments that it was the Erlking one, largely because no one had suggested it before.

so that uneliminates the Erlking  :D



on the other hand Im very impressed with what youve done so far. would you be able to redo your ideas under the assumption that Erlking made the belts, but someone else bargained for them, and see where it goes?

for example, we know the Red Court had an inside agent in the police department.  w ealso know the reds and the erlking were not enemies prior to changes in any major fashion- he didnt just shoot them on sight.

it quite plausible that the person who made the belts was not the same person who did the open heart spell.. or even that the red court may have bought both from indpendant contractors.

 ;)
« Last Edit: December 20, 2012, 11:41:12 AM by Ms Duck »
Yeah, but Germans and Hungarians don't pull people's theories out of their sockets when they're challenged.  Ducks are known to do that.


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Offline Elegast

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Re: Connections pt. 2: Suspect for SF-FM-BR-LH (Cold Days Spoilers)
« Reply #8 on: December 20, 2012, 12:12:20 PM »
Here is a new WOJ found by Knnn in the LKH yahoo group, which may be relevant:

Appearance: before or after losing the glamor? An Ash quote comes to mind "You got real ugly."

...it had a bat-like face, horrid and ugly, the head too big for its body.  Gaping, hungry jaws. Its shoulders were hunched, powerful, and membranous wings stretched between the joints of its almost skeletal arms. Flabby black breasts hung before it, spilled out of the black dress that no longer did anything to make it look more feminine. Its eyes were wide, black, and staring, and a kind of leathery, slimy hide covered its flesh, like an inner tube lathered with Vaseline...

Powers: unknown, but enough to scare Harry who does things like float elevators on wind at the drop of a hat with a minor charm bracelet.

Their ability to mask themselves could potentially be used to look like someone else--or /you/, for that matter. They also have narcotic saliva that renders a victim passive while the vamp feeds, and is addictive and habit-forming, to boot. They get the standard vampire package of 'stronger and faster than you,' and Harry harbors some suspicions that looking one of them in the eyes could be bad for him and way bad for someone without his
kind of mental defenses.

That's only the Red Court's vampires, though, and they're just one of the vampire factions. They just happen to be the first ones Harry makes want to kill him. ;) The White Court, Black Court, and Jade Court are way different.

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Offline Cenphx

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Re: Connections pt. 2: Suspect for SF-FM-BR-LH (Cold Days Spoilers)
« Reply #9 on: December 20, 2012, 02:27:25 PM »
@ Ms. Duck-I can see what you mean about the timing of that WoJ you mentioned. And I have no problem reevaluating my thinking on any of this. Idid think about 'what if there are 2 layers of suspects above the players we see', but that would lead to an endless series of combinations to consider and my 2 threads are already waa-a-y too long. Which is why I tried to look at whether one suspect could work for each plot. Variation on occams. I know that doesnt make it more accurate, but I was curious if it could work. And I think it could, with some hiccups.   

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Re: Connections pt. 2: Suspect for SF-FM-BR-LH (Cold Days Spoilers)
« Reply #10 on: December 20, 2012, 02:33:46 PM »
@ Ms. Duck-I can see what you mean about the timing of that WoJ you mentioned. And I have no problem reevaluating my thinking on any of this. Idid think about 'what if there are 2 layers of suspects above the players we see', but that would lead to an endless series of combinations to consider and my 2 threads are already waa-a-y too long. Which is why I tried to look at whether one suspect could work for each plot. Variation on occams. I know that doesnt make it more accurate, but I was curious if it could work. And I think it could, with some hiccups.

well then by all means continue. im curious as to whast you will come up with :)
Yeah, but Germans and Hungarians don't pull people's theories out of their sockets when they're challenged.  Ducks are known to do that.


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Offline Cenphx

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Re: Connections pt. 2: Suspect for SF-FM-BR-LH (Cold Days Spoilers)
« Reply #11 on: December 20, 2012, 02:37:49 PM »
@ Elegast-re: the RCVs. That theory just doesnt sing for me like the others do. Bianca doesnt seem to know whats going on in SF and shes the ranking, just moved in RCV. She doesnt appear to learn magic until after her aide is killed, so its unlikely that she was teaching Sells complicated magic before SF. Also, im not convinced Marcone was the real reason the wolf belts were passed out. I think eventually he became the direction the hexenwolves were aimed, but a helluva lot of unrelated people died before that. Finally, which mortal wizard called the outsiders for the RCVs in their battle w/the WC? Simplest answer is the reds were also being helped by the same high level wizard 

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Re: Connections pt. 2: Suspect for SF-FM-BR-LH (Cold Days Spoilers)
« Reply #12 on: December 20, 2012, 02:42:51 PM »
@ Elegast-re: the RCVs. That theory just doesnt sing for me like the others do. Bianca doesnt seem to know whats going on in SF and shes the ranking, just moved in RCV. She doesnt appear to learn magic until after her aide is killed, so its unlikely that she was teaching Sells complicated magic before SF. Also, im not convinced Marcone was the real reason the wolf belts were passed out. I think eventually he became the direction the hexenwolves were aimed, but a helluva lot of unrelated people died before that. Finally, which mortal wizard called the outsiders for the RCVs in their battle w/the WC? Simplest answer is the reds were also being helped by the same high level wizard

Cowl? or Mavra? both could fit those options nicely and both have possible motives and opportunity  ;)
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Offline Cenphx

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Re: Connections pt. 2: Suspect for SF-FM-BR-LH (Cold Days Spoilers)
« Reply #13 on: December 20, 2012, 02:45:16 PM »
Ms. Duck- re Molly and her magic being labelled delicate, too. I think you are right. Sigh. Well, the evidence for Elaine isnt strong, other than that and she's a powerful female wizard and the female part isnt even necessary.  In your theory, who do you think got the belts from the Erlking? How would you explain the connection to the love hurts belts? Did someone leanr how to make them based on the Erlkings design?

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Re: Connections pt. 2: Suspect for SF-FM-BR-LH (Cold Days Spoilers)
« Reply #14 on: December 20, 2012, 02:48:48 PM »
Cowl? or Mavra? both could fit those options nicely and both have possible motives and opportunity  ;)

Outsiders can only be called by mortals so Mavra doesn't fit the last point. It's also possible that there are other mortal practitioners in the Circle who could call the outsiders or perhaps infected practitioners.
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