[CD spoilers] Proven Guilty

[Elegast]

After yesterday's thread about Small Favor, here comes the complete explanation of Proven Guilty! 

I gathered all the pre-CD theories about PG in my compendium. Let me quote the best parts:

Theories

Each theory is given a percentage estimating its credibility. I use poll results if available, I guess-estimate otherwise.

Theory: Mab wanted to kidnapp Molly 95%

We are almost sure it's true because of this WOJ:

Yeah.  It sure looks that way from here, don't it.

But to correct some minor stuff:  the fetches aren't even /close/ to her strongest servitors.  They're her couriers, harassers, spies and occasional assassins.  Captain Kudzu was a being that was deemed more-or-less sufficient on the badassometer, but nothing to write home about.  The fetches main use, to Mab, isn't as battlefield thugs.  She's got /plenty/ of other things for that.  Another mild correction:  who says Mab /lost/ the battle at Arctis Tor, before Harry and Company arrived?  At the end of the day, the Winter Queen was still in her fortress--but you didn't see anyone standing around assaulting the place, did ya.   Also, it has probably occurred to more than one of you that if Mab was /really/ in trouble, she could have had the entire military might of Faerie back at the fortress in moments--exactly the way they *did* come back when Harry smacked the Winter Well with the fires of Summer.

(Which goes to show that while Mab may be canny to an inhuman degree, she isn't infallible.  Just way closer to infallible than us.)

See above regarding "the question is *why*?" 

Ask yourself why Mab had Molly brought in.  What chain of events did that set in motion?  What secondary effects came about because of it?  Ultimately, Mab can always go to the Wyld and draw in more muscle to replace fallen thugs.  If worst comes to worst, with just a few "seed" fae, she could rear up enough Changelings to repopulate her cadre within a human generation or two--nothing, to a being thousands of years old. 

As far as she's concerned, everyone and everything is expendable, including herself, when it comes to adhering to her (seemingly irrational and inexplicable) priorities.

(And by the way--don't think Titania is much better.  When push came to shove, she let her own daughter be murdered rather than upset the balance of the Faerie Courts.  At least Mab is up front about it.  Usually.)

Sacrifice her best troops?  Mab would sacrifice every creature *in* Winter, every one she could bring from Summer, and every single mortal on planet Earth if that's what she thought was appropriate.  And she wouldn't even need to add extra sugar to her cup of tea afterwards, much less lose sleep over it.

But no one does cold-blooded like the Queen of Winter.  Mab's been in the business a long time, she's got a balance sheet, and she is *not* going to come out in the red--

--unless, of course, she really *has* stripped a gear, as Lily and Maeve believe.  In which case there's a stark raving bonkers demigoddess whose powers are no longer being held in check by the Escher-esque code of Sidhe behavior.  And that's all kinds of bad.

But hey.  It's probably not that.  I mean, not *everything* that happens can be the absolute worst possible possibility, right?

Jim

So Mab sent the fetches. Then she knows that Harry will send them back to the sender, as it is standard WC procedure:

Bob’s eyelights brightened even more. “Ooooooo, classic White Council doctrine. When the phages come through, you point them straight at the guy who summoned them. Give him a dose of his own medicine.”

Theory:  Mab never intended Harry to pour summer fire in the well. 74% (51 votes)

From the same WOJ:

Also, it has probably occurred to more than one of you that if Mab was /really/ in trouble, she could have had the entire military might of Faerie back at the fortress in moments--exactly the way they *did* come back when Harry smacked the Winter Well with the fires of Summer.

(Which goes to show that while Mab may be canny to an inhuman degree, she isn't infallible.  Just way closer to infallible than us.)

Theory:  Mab fixed Little Chicago 65% 

MsDuck theory, the only other famous theory is time-travelling Harry, which has absolutely no proof.

(click to show/hide)

Mab, Little Chicago, and Demon Reach, Aka the get out of dead free plan

by Ms DucK

Ok, let’s go back a bit:

Grave Peril:
  Here is where we first meet the winter Sidhe. And here is where it is established that Harry traded Lea his ‘life, fortune, and future’ in exchange for the power to beat Justin. (power he already had, and only needed to believe in himself, but hey.) It is also established that by breaking his word three times, his own power turns against him, his very magic now trying to force him to keep his vow. Harry later bluffs Lea (or so he believes) into an extension, but the debt- life, fortune, and future- remains in force. And then, of course, Mab buys that debt from Lea, in order to balance the scales between them. (This btw means that Harry is worth as much to Mab as the original Morgan lefay’s dagger, or fricking Excalibur)
   Also in this book we see Harry exit the NN near his apartment, and describe the area of his apt as a shadow version of itself. This is important later, as neither Bob or Harry remember these events in Changes.
   At some point soon after this book Lea builds her secret entrance into Harry’s lab; she can now enter or leave his place at will (as well as protect the NN side) since Harry’s magic and thresholds are no longer an impediment to her- since she owns them. 

Summer Knight:
         Enter Mab. Cue rock and roll music, with extra rocks in.
   Mab demonstrates that the clause is still in full effect, by making Harry stab himself. They renegotiate; Mab allows Harry a chance to buy himself free, in return for three tasks. The limits are Harry can say No, with no reprisals; the deal remains solely between them; she cannot send lackey’s to chastise or force him by proxy.
   When Mab leaves, she hurts him, both out of spite and to let the reader know the original clause is still in effect- she still owns his life, future, and fortune; he only has a chance to earn his freedom.
   At the end she offers him the knighthood, and agrees that all debts between them will be canceled if he accepts.
   
Proven Guilty:
Now here is our famous mystery. Who entered Harry’s lab, without his or Bob’s knowledge, and fixed Little Chicago? And why? Who would know about it at all?

   Back In 2006 JenniH posted that she didn’t think Mab was responsible for PG, as she would not sacrifice a main servitor. Jim replied:

Mab as orchestrator of all is just a little much for me to swallow.  Seems like she loses a lot more than she gains, and I don't think Mab is big on coming out behind in her negotiations. 

Yeah.  It sure looks that way from here, don't it.

But to correct some minor stuff:  the fetches aren't even /close/ to her strongest servitors.  They're her couriers, harassers, spies and occasional assassins.  Captain Kudzu was a being that was deemed more-or-less sufficient on the badassometer, but nothing to write home about.  The fetches main use, to Mab, isn't as battlefield thugs.  She's got /plenty/ of other things for that.  Another mild correction:  who says Mab /lost/ the battle at Arctis Tor, before Harry and Company arrived?  At the end of the day, the Winter Queen was still in her fortress--but you didn't see anyone standing around assaulting the place, did ya.   Also, it has probably occurred to more than one of you that if Mab was /really/ in trouble, she could have had the entire military might of Faerie back at the fortress in moments--exactly the way they *did* come back when Harry smacked the Winter Well with the fires of Summer.

(Which goes to show that while Mab may be canny to an inhuman degree, she isn't infallible.  Just way closer to infallible than us.)

See above regarding "the question is *why*?" 

Ask yourself why Mab had Molly brought in.  What chain of events did that set in motion?  What secondary effects came about because of it?  Ultimately, Mab can always go to the Wyld and draw in more muscle to replace fallen thugs.  If worst comes to worst, with just a few "seed" fae, she could rear up enough Changelings to repopulate her cadre within a human generation or two--nothing, to a being thousands of years old. 

As far as she's concerned, everyone and everything is expendable, including herself, when it comes to adhering to her (seemingly irrational and inexplicable) priorities. 

(And by the way--don't think Titania is much better.  When push came to shove, she let her own daughter be murdered rather than upset the balance of the Faerie Courts.  At least Mab is up front about it.  Usually.)

Sacrifice her best troops?  Mab would sacrifice every creature *in* Winter, every one she could bring from Summer, and every single mortal on planet Earth if that's what she thought was appropriate.  And she wouldn't even need to add extra sugar to her cup of tea afterwards, much less lose sleep over it.

But no one does cold-blooded like the Queen of Winter.  Mab's been in the business a long time, she's got a balance sheet, and she is *not* going to come out in the red--

--unless, of course, she really *has* stripped a gear, as Lily and Maeve believe.  In which case there's a stark raving bonkers demigoddess whose powers are no longer being held in check by the Escher-esque code of Sidhe behavior.  And that's all kinds of bad.

But hey.  It's probably not that.  I mean, not *everything* that happens can be the absolute worst possible possibility, right?

Jim

   The part about Mab being mad (with evil smiley face) was later contradicted by Jim when someone else guessed that Mab was not insane, but wounded.
Note that this post confirms two things, long suspected: That Mab had Molly brought in, and that Mab and Titania worked together to kill Aurora. And he specifically addressed the chain of events that this caused. Said chain could not have occurred unless Harry and co could reach actris tor, thus for the Plan to work Mab is required to fix it; which she could easily do; just walk thru the bottom door, fix things, and tell Bob to forget it happened.

White Night 
     Only a small maybe cameo here: The base was built by the Sidhe (think Mab left a hidey hole?)( confirmed in TC, how Did Titania get Morgan out?) and Anastasia complains of headaches, sex drives, and a strange female voice whispering to her in her dreams.

Small Favor
     Now this is where life gets interesting.
Mab outright (she admits it) takes Harry’s blasting rod and then makes him forget she took it. What she leaves behind is the image of a tarp, and a splitting headache.

 

  “pain stabbed into my head, ice picks plunging into both temples. I flinched and doubled over. Blasting rod. Familiar words.  I fought to summon an image of what went with the words, but I could not find anything. I knew the memory associated with those words, but try as I might, I couldn’t drag it out. It was like a shape covered by some heavy tarp…”

   The second thing that happens in this book is Harry meets the isle for the first time.
   There is also a small in-joke here; when researching gruff, harry find a Calvin and Hobbes book. For the non fans, the last strip of the comic had Calvin ( the too bright smart alleck) and Hobbes ( his wiser but snarky and horny friend only he can talk too) head off into a eternal winter wonderland of snow, magic, and snow goons. (yes, Mab left him a book)

   Turn Coat and the two clue bats:
[There is a WOJ saying we missed two clues in TC. Elegast.]
The first clue is on page 211
 
   After Thomas is taken, Harry searched for him magically, but never uses or mentions Little Chicago. (although damaged in WN, it is fixed by this time, note SJ).. all he describes is:

“a long table in the center of the room is covered by a canvas tarp.

.
   Now it is important that not only does he not mention it ( he does in every other book, whether he uses it or not, he is very proud of it.) but Bob does not mention it either.
   And almost the very first thing he mentions in the books is his splitting blinding headache.

The second clue is on page 215

   Mouse come over to talk to him, gets Harrys attention, and then when Harry bends down, harry gets a second blinding headache, and loses his train of thought. This is important because it is shown later that Mouse could have found Thomas, and he certainly believed he was a match for shaggy, or at least that harry and he together were.So someone covered the table, removed the memory from Harry and Bob, and gave Harry a headache just in time to prevent him from rescuing Thomas.

   Why would Mab do this? Two possible reasons: First, she believes Harry and Mouse were not a match for shaggy, or she needed Harry to bond with Demonreach for another later purpose, and Thomas being in trouble was the goad she used to get harry to do something this drastic.

      Now another side note- Back to Anastasia. Harry and Rashid discuss why The black council had Anna fall for Harry, and are unable to come up with why; largely because putting Anna and Harry together is what caused the fall of their plan. The reason is because the BC was not responsible. Mab was. The BC used her as an assassin, but by sending her to harry, Mab was able to screw up all their plans.

Now to Changes, GS, and beyond: 

Mab has a problem. She has immense power, but is limited by the rules; she can only channel as much power into mortal realms as a single mortal vessel (her knight) can hold. So she needs a new knight with the capacity for some serious fire power. Her second problem is her enemies are acting in the shadows, keeping their true natures hidden. So how to lure them out?

• Get a major knight
• get the knight a way out of death free card (Demonreach, with help from lash)
• make it so the knight appears to have been killed
• bad guys come out of their roach holes, as planned
• bring back 6 billion dollar knight, with extra crispy Demonreach power
• make popcorn, enjoy

Other possible suspects for fixing LC:

• Eb- if he had known what was going on, he would have shown up to help.
• Rashid- even if he somehow knew, he had no way into the apartment
• Future Harry- wont ever happen. Harry, if he could change time, would have saved all the kids in PG, not just fixed LC. And to heck with the consequences.
• Uriel- only intervenes to balance the dark side’s efforts.
• Lea- was an icicle.
• Lash- if she could take over Harry’s body, she would do more than fix LC.

Theory: B.C. was involved in Molly's turn to the dark side 54%(31 votes)

BC in Chicago:

Fact is, we have circumstantial evidence of Black Council activity in Chicago during PG:

• Madrigal is a known cats-paw for the BC.  Someone invited him over a year before the convention started.  Speculation is that he covering for **something**
• Sandra Marlin is the one who gets Molly thinking about using magical fear to stop a drug addiction.  She also used to work at a homeless shelter (Marva warning bells here).  If we believe the RPG as cannon, she also disappeared shortly after the events of PG.

Theory: Lea was possessed by an Ousider 45% (31 votes)

  “Child,” she said. Her voice was weak. “You must not free me.”
     I stared at her, feeling confused. “Why?”
     She gritted her teeth and said, “I cannot yet be trusted. It is not time. I would not be able to
fulfill my promise to your mother, should you free me now. You must leave.”
     “Trusted?” I asked.
     “No time,” she said, voice strained again. “I cannot long keep it from taking hold of…” She shuddered
and lowered her head. She lifted her face to me a few seconds later, and the madness had returned to
her eyes. “Wait,” she rasped. “I have reconsidered. Free me.”
     I traded a look with Thomas, and we both took a cautious step backward.
     Lea’s face twisted up with rage and she let out a howl that shook icicles from their positions.
“Release me!”

We all know Lea is a little off her rocker when we first meet her at the beginning of GP.  And she's still a little off her rocker after Mab has 'cured' her of her illness.

It's common speculation that her crazier self was induced by the power she gained by possessing the athame.

But here, we see her say that she "cannot long keep it from taking hold of” her.

What was it that was taking hold of her, that she couldn't control?  Could it be something other than just insanity?

I present thee with the following:

• We know from Lash's statements in WN that Outsiders can possess other beings, even of the supernatural variety.
  

  Lasciel squared her shoulders and straightened. “You’re right,” she said. “It is my choice. Listen to
  me.” She leaned closer, her eyes intent. “Vittorio has been given power. That is how he can do this. He
  is possessed.”
       I wished I could have raised my eyebrows. Possessed by what?
       “An Outsider,” Lasciel said. “I have felt such a presence before. This attack is drawn directly from the
  mind of the Outsider.”
•   We know that He Who Walks Behind returned to Earth at the end of BR.
  

  I remember three more things from that night in the Deeps.
       First was Madge’s body. As I turned to leave, it suddenly sat up. Spines protruded from its skin, along
  with rivulets of slow, dead blood. Its face was ravaged shapeless, but it formed up into the features of the
  demon called He Who Walks Behind, and its mouth spoke in a honey-smooth, honey-sweet, inhuman voice.
  “I am returned, mortal man,” the demon said through Madge’s dead lips. “And I remember thee. Thou and I,
  we have unfinished business between us.”
       Then there was a bubbling hiss, and the corpse deflated like an empty balloon.
• Lea was attempting to use the power of the athame do something.
  

     “Lea,” I said. “What has happened to you? How long have you been a Sidhe-sicle?”
       Some of the strength seemed to ebb from her, and she suddenly seemed exhausted. “I grew too arrogant
  with the power I held. I thought I could overcome what stalks us all. Foolish. Milady Queen Mab taught me the
  error of my ways.”

What if, as part of her protecting Harry, Lea tried to take on HHWB, and was instead possessed?  And Mab had to imprison her until after she could be exorcised.

[Elegast]

Theory: Maeve was at Splattercon 45% (31 votes)

(click to show/hide)

We know there is some mysterious person in PG at the Splattercon. I know who it was! (Really  )

Missing person quote:

There were a few more screams, the quick, light sound of frightened feet, and I whirled. I saw someone flee the room from the corner of my eye, but I didn’t get much of a look at them.

Some quotes:
about the murk:

“What the hell,” he said, and shook the light a few times. He had his hand on his gun, the restraining strap off, but he hadn’t drawn it yet. Good man. He knew as well as I did that the hotel was going to have far more panicked attendees than potential threats.

“We’ll try mine,” I said, and got the silver pentacle on its chain from around my neck. A gentle whisper and an effort of will and the amulet began to emit a pure, silver-blue light that reached into the darkness around us, burning it away as swiftly as it pressed in, until we could see for maybe fifteen feet around us. Beyond that was just a murky vagueness— not so much a cloud or a mist as a simple lack of light.

about the ward:

struggled to ignore the sounds of frightened people in the dark and focused on my magical senses. I reached out to the cold and the gloom, and found it a vaguely familiar kind of spellworking, though I couldn’t remember precisely where I’d encountered it before.

I nodded once at him, turned, and plunged into the darkness, Rawlins at my back. Screams erupted around us, sometimes accompanied by the sight of stumbling, terrified people. Rawlins nudged them toward the walls, barked at them in a tone of pure paternal authority to stay near them, to move carefully for the exits. The gloom began to press in closer to me, and it became an effort of will to hold up the light in my amulet against it. A few steps more and the air grew even colder. Walking forward became an effort, like wading through waist-deep water. I had to lean against it, and I heard a grunt of effort come out of my mouth. “What’s wrong?” Rawlins asked, his voice tight.

We passed under one of the hotel’s emergency light fixtures, its floodlights only dim orange rings in the murk until my amulet’s light burned the shadows away. “Dark magic,” I growled through clenched teeth. “A kind of ward. Trying to keep me from moving ahead.”

He[Rawlins] gave me an odd look, grabbed an older woman who was passing blindly, and sent her off to follow the wall to the door out. He shivered then, and when he exhaled his breath came out in a long, frosty plume. The temperature had dropped maybe forty degrees in the space of a minute.

about Pell's theater:

I caught my breath a little, and asked, “Anything at Pell’s theater?”

Murphy nodded and crossed the room to pick up two of the candles. “A lot of nothing. Place was locked up tight. Chains on the front doors, and the back door was locked. Sign on the door said they were closed until further notice.”

I grunted. “You’d think Pell would be wild to have the place open, if the convention was providing a significant amount of his income—even if he was in a hospital bed. Hell, especially if he was in a hospital bed.”

“Unless he doesn’t have anyone he trusts to run it for him.”

The magic strongly points toward Maeve. It's cold. It's darkness. Harry has seen the same binding in Summer Knight performed on Slate by Maeve. She was the one who closed the door at the theater: the fetches attacked Pell, freeing the Way back to Artis Tor.

Now that's indications, not proof. But I've more: Harry saw her. She was at Splattercon.

Two girls, both too young for me to think adult thoughts about, sidled by in black-and-purple clothing and makeup that left a lot of skin bare, their faces painted pale, trickles of fake blood at the corners of their mouths. One of them smiled at me, and she had fangs.

This is Maeve. Right in front of Harry. Taunting him. The girls are described exactly like Maeve. They wear the clothes she likes. They wear the colors of Winter. It's also a reference to Harry's costume in GP.

I give you the official descriptions of Maeve:

The young woman who entered the bar could have been Lily’s sister. She had the same exotic beauty, the same canted, feline eyes, the same pale, flawless skin. But this one’s hair was worn in long, ragged strands of varying lengths, like a Raggedy Ann doll, each one dyed a slightly different color from frozen seas—pale blues and greens, as though each had borrowed its color from a different glacier. Her eyes were a cold, brilliant shade of green, almost entirely darkened by pupils dilated as though with drugs or arousal. A slender silver hoop gleamed at one side of her nose, and a collar of black leather studded with silver snowflakes encircled the graceful line of her slender throat. She wore sandals and cut-off blue jean shorts—very cut-off, and very tight. A tight, white T-shirt strained across her chest, and read, in pale blue letters stretched into intriguing curves, “YOUR BOYFRIEND WANTS ME.”

She looked young. Young enough to make a man feel guilty for thinking the wrong thoughts, but old enough to make it difficult not to. Her hair had been bound into long dreadlocks, each of them dyed a different shade, ranging from a deep lavender to pale blues and greens to pure white, so that it almost seemed that her hair had been formed from glacial ice. She wore leather pants of dark, dark blue, laced and open up the outside seams from calf to hip. Her boots matched the pants. She wore a white T-shirt tight enough to show the tips of her breasts straining against the fabric, framing the words OFF WITH HIS HEAD. She had hacked the shirt off at the top of her rib cage, leaving pale flesh exposed, along with a glitter of silver flashing at her navel.

Now, wait, it gets worse, this is just after the murk appears:

Rawlins stared at me for a second and then said, “What the hell is going on?”

There were running footsteps and shouts and cries in the gloom. All of them sounded choked, muffled somehow. One of the two teenaged “vampires” stumbled into the circle of my azure wizard’s light, sobbing.

Yes. One of the two was missing. That was Maeve who went backstage. She was in Chicago, and that's how she showed up so quickly:

That is one way to describe it,” Lily said quietly. “I would not, myself, interpret it that way. I had no part in bringing the fetches here—but their presence and their capture of Lady Charity’s daughter presented us with an opportunity to temporarily neutralize the presence of Mab’s forces upon our borders.”

“We,” I murmured. “Maeve is working with you. That was why she showed up at McAnally’s so quickly.”

Solved.

Edit:
Thanks to Griffyn612, we even know the reason for each attack.

The first attack was targeting Pell. Aim: free the theater,where there is a Way to Artis Tor.
The second attack was to make Harry react, and make sure he would send the phages to Molly.
The third attack was targeting the vampire/girl to make sure there would be no witness.

The third victim had been one of the little vampire girls I’d seen the previous evening. I could only tell because her head had landed facing me. The rest of her was hopelessly intermixed with the other two bodies.

Time resumed its course. The energy that powered the spell fled out of me in another rush, and left me lying on my side, struggling to draw in enough breath. I could feel the spell sizzling down the lines of power for the summoner, and a heartbeat later there was a sense of impact as the spell went home. As it happened, the entities my web touched went abruptly still, the web ceasing its trembling—and then they all surged forward into sudden motion, vanishing from the web, and presumably streaking after the lure.

All but one.

That's why Harry's spell failed. Mab knew Harry was planning a redirection spell. The last phage was specifically send to kill the vampire/girl and could not be diverted.
The fourth attack was targeting Glau, killing the last witness, saving Harry if necessary, and taunting him.

.

Theory: The Scarecrow was boosted by Ousider power 29% (31 votes)

This is Neurovore's hypothesis. it led Jim to ask:

Dear god.  Are you a CIA analyst or something?

Now some may doubt it, but remember: Mab needs a motive for kidnapping Molly, and according to a WOJ, the damage to the Winter Well was not planned. Here are Neurovore's arguments:

The Scarecrow is a "Black Council" agent - in this case a Circle agent.

Compare, Harry, p.476 of PG pb: "Consider all these things running around with more power than they should have had."  With p.366 ibid "This thing was no fetch, no changer of form and image and illusion. There was no shadowy mask over an amorphous form, no glamour altering its appearance, which my salve would have enabled me to see through.  This thing was a whole independent creature.  Except maybe it was a fetch so old and strong... "  (Emphasis mine.)  The "old strong fetch" theory is not what one might call confirmed.

Compare also, p. 368 ibid, "A lance of flame as thick as my wrist lashed out from the tip of the rod - and died two feet away from it, the burning energy of the strike swallowed by an unfathomable ocean of cold cold power."  That's not how entities toughing it out against Harry's fire from sheer resilience behave - see Grum in Reuel's apartment in SK, see Ursiel in DM.  What it is reminiscent of is Lord Raith's immunity to magic. Which we are pretty certain is Outsider based, which leads back to the Circle again.

The Scarecrow is an entity that has been let into Arctis Tor by some agreement Mab is held to under duress.  Mab's motivation in manipulating Harry is not only to get Summer to flatten the Reds, but also to be rid of the Scarecrow in a deniable way.

To play devil's advocate to myself, and expand from a line of reasoning JRBobC was suggesting in the other thread:

Suppose the Scarecrow is only an old strong fetch.  Suppose Mab is willing to sacrifice it for the sake of getting Summer to flatten the Reds.  Suppose the Circle have nothing directly to do with anything in PG.  It holds together pretty much equally well, if you don't find the observations I make above convincing, and leaves the athame-vectored craziness as a separate piece of plotting entirely.

There is also the other element of how Harry got into Arctis Tor to consider in each case.  There's nothing defending Arctis Tor but some fetches, because something, armed with Hellfire, took out a small army of goblins and a pack of trolls. 

(Given that Harry knows Hellfire, I think we can rule out the Scarecrow's unfetchlike powers being Denarian-based, fwiw.)

Theory: Time travelling Harry 25%

(click to show/hide)

• Future Harry travels back in time for some reason, yet to be explained/determined.
• PG Harry is surprised he didn't unplug the phone prior to prepping for using LC; possible that he DID, but Future Harry plugged it back in to make sure PG Harry didn't miss the call from Molly.
• Future Harry fixes LC, as he knows its defective, and knows what its like once its fixed.  No issue with wards, etc.
• Future Harry isn't allowed to truly interfere with events, because of time-travel rules; but during the Reaper attack at SplatterCon!!!, he uses his WK abilities to call forth the murk, thereby slowing down the Reaper attack, and then runs out of the room as PG Harry defeats the Reaper.
• Future Harry is found by Mab, who realizes he is time travelling, and she now KNOWS he will eventually take up the WK mantle.
• Future Harry learns of Lea's possession, and has a conversation with Mab, where they realize that hitting her, and the wellspring, with his Outsiderbane power would help free her from possession. Thus explaining why the Scarecrow specifically hid behind the wellspring during the attack; it was the goal.
• Future Harry realizes that PG Harry set the fetches on Molly, and that they're going to kill her; he gives PG Mab the idea to use her as bait, to lure PG Harry there, thus saving Molly, and setting it up to help Lea in return.
• Future Harry is onsite for the Blouncil assault on Arctis Tor, and participates in its defense.  This could be the reason he goes back in time to begin with; to see exactly who participated in the attack.
• Thorned Namsciel may have participated in the attack, as Mab implied and Harry assumed, but if theories are correct that Lash is coming back and will give Harry access to Hellfire again, then maybe some of the sulfur at Arctis Tor is from Harry himself.
• Mab's ice-cycle winks at Future Harry first, and then again to PG Harry at the end, thus increasing the creepy factor, because Future Harry now knows that when Mab winked at PG Harry, she knew he was going to become WK.

This theory's impact on the other theories:

• Lea was possessed by an Outsider - supported
• BC Recruitment of Molly - not contradicted, as Marling/Mavra could still have been plotting to turn Molly, not changing the initial contact with her.
• Mab Fixed LC - contradicted, as its no longer necessary
• Mab never intended SummerFire in Wellspring - not contradicted, as Harry can have an 'oops' moment and honesetly forgets to tell Mab.
• Mab wanted to kidnap Molly - not entirely contradicted, just proposes a different reason and beginning to her plot.
• The Scarecrow with Outsider power - not entirely contradicted, as the phages could have been manipulated by the Blouncil, but Mab re-asserted her will over them in time to save Molly and use them in her plan to blast Lea/Wellspring with Outsiderbane power.
• Maeve was at SpaltterCon!!! - contradicted, as its no longer necessary, since Harry would have done the murk work himself; doesn't explain everything as well as the Maeve theory, but we could be off about a couple points there.

Other Questions Answered

• The Dark Chrysler - supported, as it was Harry driving.
• Who Closed Pell's - Future Harry could have done it, to make sure it was sealed off prior to using it to get to Arctis Tor.
• What was Gatekeeper trying to prevent - VERY VERY slim chance Future Harry was involved in Gatekeeper knowing about the dark magic; or more likely, he just knew because of his cool swirly eye.

MIRROR MIRROR plot
Typically, this is thought to be either a completely different dimension, or an altered time-line due to time travel.  The problem I see with having the TT and MM plots combined is that, at least in theory, for the difference in the timelines to be seen, Harry will have to travel to the other timeline/dimension at the present', see the differences, and then travel back to past at the point of divergence, and fix what happened.  Then he'll have to return to the present in his timeline/dimension.  Which sounds like a whole lot of headache.

It'd be simpler to have two different plots. In one book, he travels back in time to learn something.  In another book, he travels to a parallel dimension to learn something, and has to do what he can to help them and then get back to his own dimension.

.

[Elegast]

The theories were:

• Mab fixed LC by Ms Duck and AcornArmy
• Lea is outsider possessed, by Knnn
• the BC push Molly toward the dark side, by Knnn
• the Scarecrow is possessed by an Outsider, by Neurovore
• Maeve was at Splattercon, by your humble servitor
• Time travel HArry, by Gryffin 612

Now the good news: almost all the theories were correct!

Mab wanted to kidnapp Molly

Now we're almost certain it's true, due to this WOJ, and Mab future plan concerning Molly:

Yeah.  It sure looks that way from here, don't it.

But to correct some minor stuff:  the fetches aren't even /close/ to her strongest servitors.  They're her couriers, harassers, spies and occasional assassins.  Captain Kudzu was a being that was deemed more-or-less sufficient on the badassometer, but nothing to write home about.  The fetches main use, to Mab, isn't as battlefield thugs.  She's got /plenty/ of other things for that.  Another mild correction:  who says Mab /lost/ the battle at Arctis Tor, before Harry and Company arrived?  At the end of the day, the Winter Queen was still in her fortress--but you didn't see anyone standing around assaulting the place, did ya.   Also, it has probably occurred to more than one of you that if Mab was /really/ in trouble, she could have had the entire military might of Faerie back at the fortress in moments--exactly the way they *did* come back when Harry smacked the Winter Well with the fires of Summer.

(Which goes to show that while Mab may be canny to an inhuman degree, she isn't infallible.  Just way closer to infallible than us.)

See above regarding "the question is *why*?" 

Ask yourself why Mab had Molly brought in.  What chain of events did that set in motion?  What secondary effects came about because of it?  Ultimately, Mab can always go to the Wyld and draw in more muscle to replace fallen thugs.  If worst comes to worst, with just a few "seed" fae, she could rear up enough Changelings to repopulate her cadre within a human generation or two--nothing, to a being thousands of years old. 

As far as she's concerned, everyone and everything is expendable, including herself, when it comes to adhering to her (seemingly irrational and inexplicable) priorities.

(And by the way--don't think Titania is much better.  When push came to shove, she let her own daughter be murdered rather than upset the balance of the Faerie Courts.  At least Mab is up front about it.  Usually.)

Sacrifice her best troops?  Mab would sacrifice every creature *in* Winter, every one she could bring from Summer, and every single mortal on planet Earth if that's what she thought was appropriate.  And she wouldn't even need to add extra sugar to her cup of tea afterwards, much less lose sleep over it.

But no one does cold-blooded like the Queen of Winter.  Mab's been in the business a long time, she's got a balance sheet, and she is *not* going to come out in the red--

--unless, of course, she really *has* stripped a gear, as Lily and Maeve believe.  In which case there's a stark raving bonkers demigoddess whose powers are no longer being held in check by the Escher-esque code of Sidhe behavior.  And that's all kinds of bad.

But hey.  It's probably not that.  I mean, not *everything* that happens can be the absolute worst possible possibility, right?

Jim

So Mab sent the fetches. Then she knows that Harry will send them back to the sender, as it is standard WC procedure:

Bob’s eyelights brightened even more. “Ooooooo, classic White Council doctrine. When the phages come through, you point them straight at the guy who summoned them. Give him a dose of his own medicine.”

Mab never intended Harry to pour summer fire in the well.
From the same WOJ:

Also, it has probably occurred to more than one of you that if Mab was /really/ in trouble, she could have had the entire military might of Faerie back at the fortress in moments--exactly the way they *did* come back when Harry smacked the Winter Well with the fires of Summer.

(Which goes to show that while Mab may be canny to an inhuman degree, she isn't infallible.  Just way closer to infallible than us.)

That gets almost certain, as it forced the troops fighting the Outsiders to come back to Artis Tor, where they were stuck by Maeve Time-dilatation spell. Mab would never allowed that, and it was Maeve working for Nemesis who made it happen.


What the Gatekeeper wanted to prevent?

“So what you’re saying is that by sending me this warning, he’s indirectly working some other angle completely?”

“I’m saying that the Gatekeeper is usually a hell of a lot more specific about this kind of thing,” Bob said. “All of the Senior Council take black magic seriously. There’s got to be a reason he’s throwing it at you like this. My gut says he’s working from a temporal angle.”

“You don’t have any guts,” I said sourly.

“Your jealousy of my intellect is an ugly, ugly thing, Harry,” Bob said.

I scowled. “Get to the point.”

“Right, boss,” said the skull. “The point is that black magic is very hard to find when you look for it directly. If you try to bring up instances of black magic on your model, like Little Chicago is some kind of evil-juju radar array, it’s probably going to blow up in your face.”

“The Gatekeeper put me on guard against black magic,” I said. “But maybe he’s telling me that so that I can watch for something else. Something black-magic related.”

What could be more important for the Gatekeeper that stopping a warlock? Stopping an infection of course. When you look closely at the Gatekeeper interventions (SK, TC, PG), it's always to stop the infection.

Let me quote Harry when he soulgazes Molly:

But the last…

The last reflection of Molly wasn’t the girl. Oh, it looked like Molly, externally. But the eyes gave it away. They were flat as a reptile’s, empty. She wore all black, including a black collar, and her hair had been dyed to match. Though she looked like Molly, like a human being, she was neither. She had become something else entirely, something very, very bad.

That was Molly taken by Nemesis. Rashid had foreseen it. So he sends a message to Harry to stop it.

So Knnn was right about the BC, and Sandra Marling was in all probability their agent. I would also point that Sandra's day job was to spread knowledge among mortals of all kind of horrors, which could be quite significant given what we know about the Oblivion war...

Why Mab wanted to capture Molly?

After CD, it becomes far clearer: she wanted a spare Lady. By kidnapping Molly, she saves her from the infection, she gets to imbue her with Winter while she's near the wellspring, she makes sure Harry takes her as her apprentice, bringing Molly within her sphere of influence.

Who fixed LC?

Mab or Time-travelling Harry.

 After CD all the main objections are dead to Mab doing it are dead, especially the wards problem, but Time-traveling Harry is also a strong possibility.

Nemesis attack on Mab

That's the new part, which Neurovore had largely guessed despite the lack of many crucial clues.

Proven Guilty was an attack of Nemesis on Mab.

Nemesis had infected the winter Lady, via Lea. Mab would suspect it in short order, as she had done with Lea. It was time to use Maeve to attack Mab. The objective of the attack was to force Mab to pull her troops from the borders.

Let us review how it was done.

First came the attack on Artis Tor. It had several objectives: freeing Lea (who was indeed infected as we had predicted), capturing the athame, and first and foremost forcing Mab to bring her troops back. It seemingly failed: the attack was defeated, and Mab didn't bring anyone in. However, in the long run it would force Mab to reinforce her inner guard, and it was only a feint for the real attack.

Harry was the real attack on Artis Tor.

Yes. 

The first one was doomed from the beginning, Harry, Nemesis's cat's paw was the real danger. Maeve wanted to bring the troops far from the border to help Nemesis, and Lily was doing the same thing in order to harm the Reds (she didn't know about Mab's true purpose).

Fix blinked at Lily. “You’re working with Maeve?”

“She couldn’t have altered the flow of time at the heart of Winter,” I said quietly. “Only one of the Winter Queens could do that.”

Fix blinked at Lily as if I hadn’t spoken. “Maeve’s working with you?”

Lily nodded. “Like us, she fears Mab’s recent madness.” She turned back to me. “I provided you with power enough to threaten the wellspring, in the hope that you would draw some portion of Winter back into its own demesnes. Once that was done, Maeve altered the passage of time relative to the mortal realms.”

Nemesis plan was to give Harry some summer fire, to let him attack the wellspring. But to achieve such a level of micro-management, he needed an agent. Let me quote the scene where Harry attacks the wellspring:

The Scarecrow let out an ear-splitting trilling chirp, like a summer locust on steroids, and it bounded to one side in an effort to keep the mounded ice of the fountain between us. I’d already seen how fast a fetch could move, and didn’t bother with a snap shot. Instead, I let it distance itself from Molly and Charity, until it reached cover behind the fountain’s ice and stopped moving.

Then I blew two-thirds of that dome away in a single blast of light, thunder, and fire.

See? The scarecrow stays right behind the spring, and present himself as the perfect target for Harry's summer fire. The Scarecrow was infected and Neurovore was right!

 

[Elegast]

Nemesis wins

PG was a victory for Nemesis. He managed to remove all the forces of Winter from the borders, leading to massive infiltrations of Outsiders.

Maeve at Splattercon

There is no doubt now that Maeve was calling the shots in the Maeve/Lily duo.

I still believe she was sent by Mab in Chicago to make sure that Harry really went to Artis Tor. She obeyed the order, as Nemesis had planned to use Harry against Mab.

Raith

Was infected, and a cover for Mab, he was there to hide Mab's manipulation (e.g. he could have been the one who called the fetches (a Wampire in a location tied to its nature) to create fear, so poor Mab is innocent)

Glau

Glau was probably twice a traitor: infected, he was working with Mab too. Mab sends Scarecrow to kill him, Nemesis sacrifices a low level agent.

The grey Chrysler

Ace tried and failed.

Sandra Marling

“Where do you know her from?” I asked. “Not church, I guess.”
Molly looked at me obliquely for a second and then said, “She’s a part-time volunteer at one of the shelters where I’m doing community service.

Marling could be an employee of House Malvora too. Even a Malvora cub. We know the Raiths own pornography studios, I would not be surprised that the Malvoras own horror theaters, conventions, and so on...

Some names:
Lara
Elisa
Nathalia
Sandra

The problem is that Jim already has a bias towards M and A: Mavra, Mab, Madrigal, Madeline, Marlings, Marcone, Margaret, Malory,Mac, Malcome, Maeve, Madge, Marion, Marco, Malone, Amanda *2, Mouse ...

EDIT: Raith == Romary
         Malvora =?= Marlings

Proximity in both cases.

Time travel Harry

Possible but unnecessary for the moment.

[Elegast]

And just for fun, the whole list of PG mysteries with their solution:

Mysteries

• Why did Mab bring Molly into Arctis Tor?                  To have a spare Lady
• What was the Gatekeeper trying to prevent?             An infection of Molly
• What happened to Lea?                                          She was infected by Nemesis
• What did Raith knew?                                            Nothing. He was a pawn.
• Who tried to kill Harry in the Grey Chrysler?             Ace.
• Who fixed Little Chicago?                                       Mab
• Why Mab kept all her troops at the border?               She was busy fighting Nemesis without her knight and Lea
• Why was Glau killed?                                            To remove any proof that Mab was master-minding the attacks
• Who closed Pell's theater?                                      Maeve
• Why was the Scarecrow immune to Harry's magic?    He was old and badass.
• Who is Sandra Marling?                                         A BC operative
• Who was seen fleeing during the second attack?        Maeve.
• Did Mab foresaw the attack on the Spring?               No.
• Who attacked Artis Tor?                                        Nemesis, Namshiel, outsiders.
• Who put up the ward at Splat.?                              Maeve
• Who cut the fire alarm and power at Splat.?             Maeve

[Serack]

I've added WoJ quote code to your first 2 posts.  You might still be messing with reply 2 (post 3) so I'm not going to mess with it yet, besides the WoJ there is the same one, so if you wanted the code is already available.

Your first post is on the edge when it comes to hitting the 20k character limit, and I had to remove the WoJ reference link ahead of the last WoJ quote to get back within toleance, but it's now built into the quote code so nothing lost.

You might take the time later to edit this quote code into your origional posts these are copied from.

[Elegast]

I've added WoJ quote code to your first 2 posts.  You might still be messing with reply 2 (post 3) so I'm not going to mess with it yet, besides the WoJ there is the same one, so if you wanted the code is already available.

Your first post is on the edge when it comes to hitting the 20k character limit, and I had to remove the WoJ reference link ahead of the last WoJ quote to get back within toleance, but it's now built into the quote code so nothing lost.

You might take the time later to edit this quote code into your origional posts these are copied from.

Thx. I think I'll stop there for today. I'll re-read later to clarify, improve grammar/spelling/logic/formatting.

[Second Aristh]

Impressive Elegast, it lays out and answers just about everything from PG

[Elegast]

Impressive Elegast, it lays out and answers just about everything from PG

As Knnn said yesterday, knowing that Nemesis is Mab's enemy makes everything clearer. We were watching a fight where one of the fighter was invisible. So it was really hard to make sense of Mab's action.

[Serack]

As Knnn said yesterday, knowing that Nemesis is Mab's enemy makes everything clearer. We were watching a fight where one of the fighter was invisible. So it was really hard to make sense of Mab's action.

Nemesis is still rather enigmatic though.

Is the piece of Nemesis in all infected beings completely in tune with (communicating with) all the others making for perfect cordination?  What is necessary for the infection to spread? 

Something tells me that Nemesis's control over a being is more effective if it remains subtle, or it can get more use out of said being if the being still retains its own identity.  This closely parallels my understanding of Denarian's relationships with their hosts, and is based off of our experiences with Cat Sith.  It appears that Cat Sith was not wholy a willing participant in nemesis's plans and as such was not as much of a bad ass.  However, Maeve and other Nemesis operatives were truely ambitious and acting out these ambitions in a way that segued with Nemesis's plans and thus were more effective operatives... 

[knnn]

Some thoughts:

1) Yet again, Elegast -- you've come up with amazing explanation for everything.  Kudos

2) Nevertheless, I'm not as happy with this one, as it totally comes off as a big win for Nemesis.  As a Mab fan, I would have preferred for this to be at least a draw. On the other hand, I suppose this makes Mab success in SmF even more awesome...

3) One weak point of the theory seems to be the lack of a reason for the false attack on AT.  It seems like Mab herself set in motion the chain of events that would bring Harry to shoot fire into the Well.  As such, the first attack is little more than a diversion -- and one easily defeated.

4) Also, Mab winking at Harry seems a little incongruous given that she just suffered a major defeat.  Add to that the WoJ that doesn't scan to me as Mab suffering a defeat...   ...still, you have everything lined up nicely.  I'm going to have to think about this a bit more.

[knnn]

Something tells me that Nemesis's control over a being is more effective if it remains subtle, or it can get more use out of said being if the being still retains its own identity.

^this^

Consider that we're dealing with beings who are playing a chess game across the universe, and that given the resources available to both sides brute-force is almost never going to work.  Also, since both are neigh-infallible predicting machines, each will be continually shutting down the other's gambits, ending each round in a stalemate.  The only way one of them can really get an advantage is by playing a game where not all the variables can be predicted --- by either side.

In practice what this means is that both sides are playing with mortal pawns while only subtly using their influence (which would be countered by the other side), and taking big chances (e.g. risking the Archive) in the hopes the their limited vision will triumph. 

Interesting enough, one can argue that the fact that mortals have free will is the key point of the battle -- in a sense, those minor decisions are the only ones that are unpredictable by both Mab and Nemesis, and so success or failure of their eternal conflict hinges precisely on that.

-- This might even serve to explain why Mab smiles every time Harry stands up to her.  The fact that he isn't bowing down to her desires means that he still is unpredictable to an extent -- he is still useful as a pawn.

[Elegast]

Some thoughts:

1) Yet again, Elegast -- you've come up with amazing explanation for everything.  Kudos

2) Nevertheless, I'm not as happy with this one, as it totally comes off as a big win for Nemesis.  As a Mab fan, I would have preferred for this to be at least a draw. On the other hand, I suppose this makes Mab success in SmF even more awesome...

3) One weak point of the theory seems to be the lack the reason for the false attack on AT.  It seems like Mab herself set in motion the chain of events that would bring Harry to shoot fire into the Well.  As such, the first attack is little more than a diversion -- and one easily defeated.

4) Also, Mab winking at Harry seems a little incongruous given that she just suffered a major defeat.  Add to that the WoJ that doesn't scan to me as Mab suffering a defeat...   ...still, you have everything lined up nicely.  I'm going to have to think about this a bit more.

1) Thx.

2) Mab can't win them all, or there would be no BAT.

3) You're right. The Arctis Tor attack is the weakest link, as my explanation is not really convincing. I have a second possibility: Nemesis killed the guard of Arctis Tor to let Harry survive the attack. Had he not, the trolls would have flattened Harry in 3 s, so no chase after Harry

4) I don't really know what to think of the wink.

[Elegast]

Add to that the WoJ that doesn't scan to me as Mab suffering a defeat...   

who says Mab /lost/ the battle at Arctis Tor, before Harry and Company arrived?

 

[knnn]

Yes, it  occurred to me that the WoJ could be read that way...

As I said, I'm going to have to think about this a bit, but for now my working theory is that Mab was entirely getting her way, at least until Harry poured Summer Fire.

So:
1) Mab rescues Molly from Nemesis.
2) Thwarts the first attack.
3) **not sure about Scarecrow

-- Harry does what he does best

4) Nemesis pulls off a last minute upset by having Maeve slow time.  This outs Maeve (note that this possibly happens after the wink, so Mab might well still be feeling smug), but the damage is done.

Note:
- An interesting thing would be to look back at Jim's CIA response to Neuro's original post in light of our current theories.  It might be that there is some cryptic phrase in there that might suddenly click.

- Come to think of it, there was also that WoJ about "exactly two things correct" regarding demonreach.  We might have better intelligence about that one.