How can you predict the future?

[Andinel]

I'm about to start running a regular game, and one of the NPCs in my city is able to predict the future. I was wondering how I would model this in the game, likely with thaumaturgy. Are there any ideas?

[Mr. Death]

I've got a PC who can do similar divinations. What I usually do is keep the prophecies vague to give it wiggle room, and use compels to set up the outcome.

[UmbraLux]

If you're not railroading, an easy way to represent predicting the future mechanically is to use declarations.  I'd even be tempted to write the power up as giving a bonus to declarations.  Depending on how expensive the ability is, you might even have a way of gathering shifts up front to apply to one or more actions later. 

[Rougarou]

I'm about to start running a regular game, and one of the NPCs in my city is able to predict the future. I was wondering how I would model this in the game, likely with thaumaturgy. Are there any ideas?

Whether or not to use thaumaturgy depends on of the pc is a wizard. There are powers that only predict the future (See Casandra's Tears in YS).

In general, you place an aspect on the entire campaign that remains until the prediction comes to pass. My advice is to avoid absolutes and too many details. I.e. Don't give a prediction that Johnny will kill Jane. Make a prediction that Jane will be attacked.

[Richard_Chilton]

There's a discussion about prophecy in chapter nine of Death Masks - mostly on ocular spirits.  Mechanically the PC would use a spell to contact the spirit and have it tell him the future.

To quote briefly:
If they tell you too much, it will change the future that they're experiencing, so they have to give out the advice with a light touch. 

I don't put much stock in prophecy. As extensive and aware as these spirits might be, they aren't all-knowing. And as nutty as people are, I don't buy that any spirit is going to be able to keep an absolute lock on every possible temporal outcome.
...

Of course the prophecy in question was:
 "Should you seek the Shroud, Harry Dresden, you will most assuredly perish."
...  "If you do not, they all die. And this city with them."


Which might be the best way to handle it.  Vague "If X then Y" statements - which can be altered by freewill.  In the above example, Harry was hit with a death and someone else said "Wait - I'll take that death", so Harry didn't die.

Mechanically, I'd say the vague advise could be worth a few "I Saw This Coming" or "I Was Warned About This" declarations.

Richard

[Sanctaphrax]

There are a few Powers for prophecy on the master list.


Haruspicy [-2]
Reading the entrails of sacred animals (dependent on cultural or supernatural heritage) is more of an art than a science. The ability to divine omens from the liver, heart, etc. functions like Cassandra's tears - without the Catch, but with much more viscera.

Prophetic Visions [-1]
Bits and Pieces: Once per scene, this character may roll Lore against a target of Good (+3) to make an assessment or declaration regarding the scene or a character in it.  This represents flashes of insight and relevant info being pulled out of the character's otherwise difficult to interpret visions.  For an Assessment, the GM determines what aspect is revealed, while for a Declaration, the player may invent a suitable aspect, so long as the GM and other players approve. These aspects may be tagged/invoked as usual. This ability may not be used repeatedly to assess/declare aspects regarding the same character encountered across multiple scenes.
I've Done This Already: In exchange for a Fate point, this character may roll Lore in place of any other skill, except as an attack in combat.  This represents a vision in which the character sees himself performing the action in the future, so he already knows what to do.
Major Prophecy: The GM has license to give this character a major vision, usually about once per session, describing its contents and possibly asking for a Lore or other roll to interpret it.  These visions tend to reveal one or more important but vague aspects that exist in every scene until the prophecy is fulfilled.  The player is encouraged to remind the GM of this power, as it can provide good plot hooks and potentially compels on the character's reactions to these visions.

Short-term precognition -2
Description: Your can see a few a moments into the future
Must: You must have Cassandra’s Tears
Pre-emptive Evasion: your dodging checks are made at a +2
I saw you coming: you have a + 4 to alertness check to avoid ambush
Skills Effected 
Athletics, Alertness and some other physical skills

I'm planning to rewrite these. Maybe today, maybe later.

[crusher_bob]

How about something like this to model prophecy:

The prophecy has a general trend or style, say 1-3 different aspects
The prophecy has some amount of positive toward the PCs power
and some amount of negative toward the PCs power
and an end condition

The amount of positive and negative power amounts are the number of free aspect invokes available for or against the PCs, that can freely be used before the prophecy's end condition comes about.

------------------

Comments:
So why give prophecies 'free' fate points, instead of just making them aspects that hang over the game for a while?  Because if prophecies didn't increase the amount of available narrativium, no one would bother to make them.

Why do they have to have both positive and negative fate point totals? The negative fate points are there to make you less eager to run through all the positive points right away.

[GryMor]

Depending the sort of future knowledge (predestination, sum across histories, message from a possible future, etc) the knowledge can be represented by a set of aspects (Kennedy will be shot, Avery is one step ahead, Gatekeeper's warning) which can be used in various ways (compelling the event, simple roll bonus, retroactive prepatory scenes, simple information).

 Characters can know what _will_ happen without the gm and player knowing what is going to happen so long as you use the aspects to fill in events between the seeing and seen event when you work out what is actually going to happen in the absence of the specific knowledge of the event.

[Sanctaphrax]

I'm planning to rewrite these. Maybe today, maybe later.

And it's done. I went for the simplest possible interpretation here.

PROPHECY [-1]
Description: You can see the future, or at least determine its shape somehow.
Skills Affected: Lore.
Effects:
Divination. Add a Divination trapping to your Lore skill. Use that trapping for Assessments, Declarations, and knowledge rolls related to what will happen in the future.
Visions. The GM can cause you to have an infallibly-accurate vision of the future whenever he or she feels inclined.

Any thoughts?

[Locnil]

I, dunno, think it looks kinda weak? Though judging game balance is one of my weak points.

Maybe it should cost 0 Refresh, but require that one of your aspects, or even high concept, should reflect you having this power?

Or maybe a bonus to Lore rolls involving prophecy.

[Tedronai]

require that one of your aspects, or even high concept, should reflect you having this power?

This really should be true of the vast majority of powers.  Usually, it will be the High Concept.

I, too, feel this power could use a boost, though.
Currently, it feels like a relatively weak stunt.

[ways and means]

And it's done. I went for the simplest possible interpretation here.

PROPHECY [-1]
Description: You can see the future, or at least determine its shape somehow.
Skills Affected: Lore.
Effects:
Divination. Add a Divination trapping to your Lore skill. Use that trapping for Assessments, Declarations, and knowledge rolls related to what will happen in the future.
Visions. The GM can cause you to have an infallibly-accurate vision of the future whenever he or she feels inclined.

Any thoughts?

Seems good, a power that actually allows you to declare anything is actually really useful.

[Locnil]

You still have to roll normally, with no bonueses though.

I mean, at some tables, this power gives you nothing you can't already have, except -1 Refresh.

[Haru]

One way of predicting the future would be to "make" it happen. So if you can kill someone with a 30+ shift ritual, you could also predict his car accident next friday with a 30+ shift ritual. The only difference would be in the narrative. That way you can make pretty specific predictions, and the effort to prepare a ritual like that would justify the outcome. This should of course be limited, since making the big bad run in front of a bus would be rather anticlimactic. On the other hand, he might have already set the doomsday ritual into motion, and now it is even harder to stop, there are a number of ways to go.

Ok, back to my point: I would set the complexity of a divination ritual at the same level it would take to inflict whatever the divination ritual is set to find out. The difference to a normal ritual would be in the narrative. The mechanic is bringing forth a plotpoint, the narrative is making it fit the story.

[Sanctaphrax]

I mean, at some tables, this power gives you nothing you can't already have, except -1 Refresh.

They're playing the game wrong.

Seriously, Lore has no Prophecy trapping.

That being said, I can see an argument saying that this is weak. Adding trappings is normally stunt stuff.

Any suggestions for improvements?

Making it require an Aspect won't work, because all Powers have to fit the concept of the character taking them anyway.