Taking, as an axiom of this debate, a position which I do not actually believe, to wit, that there is a Black Council:
The Black Councils goals would have to be to place its members at the top of the magical hierarchy specifically of magically endowed human beings while at the same time organizing the weakening of the other supernatural powers to facilitate a smooth transition during the takeover.
Why ? What do we have to demonstrate they want to conquer and use rather than to destroy ?
It is clear that while Victor Sells is not in the same league power wise as Dresden, He is clearly well trained
I disagree with that entirely. It seems very clear from his fight with Harry that he's an idiot who's been handed a bunch of odd and powerful recipes but has no real handle on magic as a larger thing, no systemic or strategic understanding. He's disposable.
Finally, if discovered by the White Council see if more focus can be placed upon Wizard Dresden in order to recruit him into the organization. He was under the Doom of Damocles and if under suspicion may run right into the Black Councils arms for safety.
I can believe that pushing Harry to go dark is part of the point, even if not recruiting him directly. The flip he nearly has outside Sells' house, before the mysterious female voice brings him back to himself, seems to me like it very well might be the whole point of the operation.
Dresden was discovered to be far more resilient than suspected. Rather than running from White Council justice Dresden stayed to uncover the Sells operation killing Sells, capturing his associates, and destroying the production center for Third Eye. Worse, he clears himself of any wrongdoing and of the Doom meaning it will be more difficult to place blame on him in future events.
I would say that considering what anyone with a White Council agent could have found from the public record about Harry, thinking he would fold easily here is way too dumb for any plausible Black Council.
Clearly the entire operation was ruined and almost a complete loss. None of the objectives were achieved. Due to the interference of Dresden; Third Eye could not be either reproduced or it was deemed a security risk as its production after Dresden proved he was innocent would have let on that Sells had compatriots.
They did however get data on how well the curse worked, which may well have been useful for designing the implementation in Changes.
Marcone survived and was able to consolidate power in Chicago with greater understanding of the supernatural.
The White Council is proven to be completely blind to the goings on within its own community except when the most gross of actions are taken and even then they turn on their own before looking to other culprits.
I disagree here too. The Council investigation in SF focuses most attention on the only plausible candidate. To have reason to look elsewhere they would need to have much information they do not and it is not plausible to expect them to have.
Gain allies and operatives within the federal government utilizing supernatural favors to influence members
Really ? Considering the extent to which those FBI agents' self-control is being undermined by the belts, how long can we envision them remaining useful ? The belts destroy the users in pretty short order.
Eliminating Marcone is also a priority in that it opens Chicago for the Black Council Agent Bianca St. Claire
You are positing a plan where at this point they want to keep her alive and replace Marcone ?
Evidently the Hexenwolfen sociopathic effects are also accelerated by the panic of discovery by Dresden
Not evident at all to me. The belt Harry wears comes very near corrupting him in a matter of minutes.
However there are several positives, one is that again there are no direct ties to the Black Council, second Marcone loses his supernatural enforcers meaning that he would have to start from scratch.
What supernatural enforcers ?
Starting a large scale conflict between The Red Court of Vampires and the White Council is clearly the most important goal of the events. The Black Council has had prior dealings with Harry Dresden; they know what makes him tick and specifically manufacture an event that will cause him to react. Bianca St. Claire is clearly misled on how Dresden will react to the situation. A child is threatened, a woman is threatened, his friends are threatened, and finally his beloved is threatened. He is forced to be there by his duty to the White Council, the Red Court is already looking for war. These are all specifically tailored to make him react violently and (in the opinion of the White and Black Councils) excessively.
I don't really buy this one either.
We are looking at a Council which has, for centuries, held not starting a war with the Red Court more important than protecting any individual Red victim. Bianca misread Harry, but I don't think that takes being misled; it takes Harry in this particular situation being wildly atypical for a Council member. Nor is he forced to be at the party by his duty; he makes that clear when first invited.
If Dresden surprises everyone by allowing these actions to take place then it only underscores the weakness of the White Council to a predatory species that would merely find some other pretext to act on that weakness.
No, it wouldn't. The Council have already been not interfering with the Red Court for centuries. Continuing to not interfere says nothing about weakness. The Council don't react to Red Court provocation because they basically have no need to; we see in Changes that when they finally do bestir themselves, the Red Court survive a matter of days. The Council are in the position of a martial arts master walking down the street refusing to be provoked by the taunts of a small child into killing that small child with one blow.
Dresden being killed in the meantime is all the better as he has interfered in several operations killing in chronological order agents Kravos, FBI Hexenwolfen, and Sells disrupting each of their operations.
This whole analysis is excluding his value as an Outsiderbane.
Not much Dresden reacted exactly planned; war between the two major groups is accomplished. The loss of Bianca St. Claire while unfortunate is not critical.
I would say it's absolutely critical. She is another sacrifice; her death is a casus belli.
The Red Court’s first strike against Senior Council Member Simon Petrovich and Archangel is clearly done with advanced intelligence from Black Council agents.
If you believe that Simon is dead, and that the point of that operation was not to give him a deniable escape, perhaps.
The Attack on Archangel is a message from the Red Court to the White Council that the war is so serious that the Red Court kills the White Council member that they trust the most first.
Alternatively, given that we know Ortega planned it, it's the "no war now" faction of the Reds' best hope to end the war. Trade Simon for Bianca, an eye for an eye, payment in kind under the Accords, and the justification for the war goes away. Otherwise there would not be a peace offer at the Council meeting in SK.
