I'd say the people trampled to death are not Lawbreaker (the Wizard did not compel anyone to stampede, and the mortals of their own free will decided to panic as opposed to file out orderly or die in the fire [the latter is a jerk thing to say, but the panicked crowd still had free wil]), the others are.
Well, as someone in one of the books says (paraphrasing) "you'd be surprised how little people use free will."
I think the litmus tests should be more like the following:
Did Magic directly violate a law? (if so, it's a violation, regardless of intent)
Did Magic cause a direct chain of events with no intelligent actors that led to deaths? (if so it's a violation, though exceptions could be made for long causal chains that are completely unforeseeable...but that's not going to show up in a game).
If not....
1. Did the wizard intend to kill?
2. Did the intelligent actors behave in an extremely predictable manner (e.g. crowd panicking) where none of them had to intend to kill someone to make the death happen?
If you have both of those, I think it is definitely a violation.
Consider Blood Rites. Trixie kills someone with a gun, but didn't intend to do that..in fact an entropy curse caused it. Still, she CHOSE to fire. Not a perfect example, but suppose you made someone attract bullets in that scenario instead. You know that Trixie is likely to be goading into shooting (but you don't do the goading). She fires, the spell causes the bullets to hit an innocent and kill them. That's a violation even though it depended on someone else, because that other person didn't have to intend to kill anyone.
You've set things up so your magic CAN cause a death if people behave as they are likely to. Note, it is important, imho, that the people you are using in 2. did NOT intend to kill anyone, you are using them to kill by betting on likely behavior resulting in accidents leading to death. If someone there is deciding to kill and without that it wouldn't happen, then they are the ones responsible, even if you help out by binding, sleeping, whatevering the enemy.
Now, if instead of 1. you have
3. Did you just recklessly endanger people with magic so death was a real possibility due to your negligence?
2. and 3. together are quite possibly a Law violation. Yeah, you didn't INTEND it, but you are being extremely sloppy and a cursory examination of what is going on is going to show that your actions are likely to result in death. (1st law violations don't have to have intent, it just helps make the case clear...lack of intent makes it murkier and possibly not a violation if enough other things aren't in place).
On the other hand, if you just have 1. Intent but not death, you didn't get a violation. If you just have 2., but actually knowing 2. was there wouldn't be easy (e.g. you didn't behave recklessly), then I don't think that should be a violation. If you just have 3, reckless behavior, but no one died, then that's not a violation either. When these start to get mixed together, imho, is where the grey area exists.