Kemmler was the last Warden but one before Harry, it is indeed in A WOJ offered when Jim was asked about the Warden before Harry, and wouldn’t say, so it obviously plays into a significant plot point, and may have been someone we know or heard about. One of the deceased Senior Council perhaps? Obviously they hadn’t been to the island for some time.
My thought was that Warden was put in place to prevent Kemmler returning and reclaiming the wardenship, and really nothing more, but his role was enough to mark him for death.
I think it was LaFortier, whose murder in Turncoat is unexplained as regards motive, but what if it was a play for the wardenship, but before the Black Council could get their Warden in place Harry does a Sanctum Invocation. That’s the motive for his murder, to free up Demonreach and access to its prisoners. The mind control by Peabody was Plan A, but it wasn’t working or working fast enough. Murder was Plan B but then everything went all Dresden. La Fortier had interests in other parts of the world, once Warden he probably ignored Demonreach.
It also explains the interest in the Black Council with Chicago, Harry had settled right next to Demonreach, so his early cases were them aiming various people at Harry to get rid of him, Dead Beat was to tap into Demonreach’s ley line to power the Dark Hallow, Cold Days and Battle Ground had Nemesis making direct plays to break in.
The Black Council were never really interested in Harry, they were interested in Demonreach, looking to get one of their own as Warden and then a powerful rogue young Wizard moved to nearby Chicago, and ends up going to Demonreach in Small Favour. That may have panicked the Black Council, and why they set the captain of Wardens on him, not just because he wasn’t subject to Peabody’s influence.
The Black Council must really, really hate Harry, time and time again he buggers up their plans by accident.
I can see a FEW motives for offing LaFortier. Kill a senior council member? Weakens the Council. It is found that the Captain of the Wardens does it? Weakens the Wardens too, you are going to chop off her head. Maybe they pick him as the target because there will be opportunity. Or because they want Christos in. And maybe an Eb or Langtry are too strong to risk going after anyway. Maybe Mai is not accessible. They spread distrust in the ranks. Maybe wobble the Merlin's power base, and while he tends to that, he might not be as observant at other things.
LaF gone, there is an opening in the Council. Maybe Christos is their man, and he gets into position. He's LaF's protege, right? and if he doesn't get it, he causes a schism - which weakens, perhaps fatally, the Council. So the Council HAS to name him. Even if he is not their man, maybe he is not quite up to the job.. and weakens the Council.
Peabody is their agent in place to influence the wizards. He and his drugs give them an assassin (Luccio) to kill LaF. They went after LaF, not Harry. Also... they may not have counted on MORGAN, not Harry. They may have WANTED Luccio caught, tried, and executed as a destabilizing event. Luccio had no clue why she did it. Morgan and Harry figured HOW, and cost them Peabody.
I don't know DR is the target. DR is the target, why take out LaF? Let Camp Kaboom go undisturbed. A couple of kid wardens finishing their training are not significant. Little more time together in camp, Luccio and Harry get closer, he takes her
out to the island and she sees what she can see, then an ice pick in the ear for Harry while he sleeps, and Demonreach needs a new warden.
Possible they are not looking so much at Demonreach so much as a rather powerful wizard they do NOT have their hooks in. Honey trap? Remember, she's young and cute now. They let things roll... maybe she eventually moves in with Harry and starts putting the psychoactives in the corn flakes... and then they have him too.
