New GM - Looking for advice on Shapeshifter NPC

[ejs4th]

I'm going to be running my first game with some friends in a little while, and we've all decided to start at the Submerged power level.  There will be four PCs, and they haven't rolled yet, but I doubt any would play pure mortals.  The guide says that equal opposition would be equivalent to the total refresh of the party, but I statted out the shapeshifter below (apologies if the format is not what is typical, I'm new) and it looks as if they would not be able to take this enemy in a fight.  Does this look like something 4 PC's at the submerged power level could take on in a fair fight, or is this a more challenging encounter they'd need to research and significantly prepare for?

Skills default to Good (costs 75)

Fantastic: Might, Conviction, Fists, Discipline, Lore (15)
Superb: Presence, Stealth, Intimidation, Deceit, Endurance (10)
Great: Alertness, Athletics, Survival, Investigation, Burglary (5)

True Shapeshifting (-4)
Modular abilities (-16)
Evocation (-3)
Thaumaturgy (-3)
The Sight (-1)
Soulgaze (-0)
Lawbreaker First Law (-2)
Lawbreaker Second Law (-2)
Lawbreaker Sixth (-1)

Mythic Toughness (-6)
Catch (0, party/story dependent - likely native american rituals or something, as long as it can tie into plot well)
Refinements (-4) (+1 power, control Spirit) (+1 power, control air)(ability to cast final two elements, each at plus 1 power)

Base Stress Tracks:
Physical OOOO(Toughness OOOOOO)(OO) (Armor:3)
Mental OOOO(OO)
Social OOOO(OO)

Tank form (giant lobster with translucent shell)
Physical Immunity (-8) (catch boiling water +2)
Mythic recovery (-6)
Hulking Size (-2) (Physical stress track is OO longer)
Recover from stress as if consequences are 3 steps lower, shake off 3 minor consequences as sup acts per fight. 

Grappling form (Dire Wolf)
Mythic strength (-6) (+6 damage to fists) (grappling benefits)
Poisoned claws (-3)
Supernatural Speed (-4)

Flying form (jet black bat)
Mythic speed (-6)
Poisoned claws (-3)
Flying (-1)
Supernatural Strength (-4)

[Sanctaphrax]

Ignore the guidelines in the book. Refresh count isn't what matters in a fight.

And yeah, that guy would obliterate most Submerged parties if played intelligently. It wouldn't be close, the players would just get stomped into paste.

[bobjob]

To my eye that looks a little scary. Also, it kind of looks like the Naglioshii.

One good hit could take out a PC thus bringing the opposition to that thing down to 3 (particularly in grapple form). I tend to go towards half the refresh of the party for major villains and then split up the remainder of the refresh up into various lieutenants/minions. Don't get me wrong, I think this is formidable and with the right preparation they might be able to take him down. I just wouldn't want it to be in a knock down fight because that thing would hurt.

Besides, if you're fighting fair, then you're fighting wrong.

[Taran]

A few years ago, I did almost exactly the same thing:

14 Modular abilities
+ 0 Human Form
-3 True Shapeshifting (can only turn into "living creatures")
-1 Supernatural sense(psychic): shapeshifters
-1 Pack instincts (any shapeshifter dominated)
-3 Domination (ranged) Plot device, not a combat device.
-6 mythic recovery
-6 Mythic Toughness
-6 Physical Immunity:  Own powers, Requires at least one Mental consequence before it can be hurt
Catch Holy Stuff, silver, wolfsbane: +2
Total refresh: 38

(click to show/hide)

+6 Weapons
+5 Endurance, Fists
+4, Alertness, Stealth
+3 Conviction, Athletics
+2 Survival, Might, Discipline
+1 Presense, Scholarship, Lore

-2 breath weapon Power=Endurance Control=Weapons (grapple)
-2 Claws (venomous)
-1 echoes of the beast(tremorsense)
-1 Spider walk
-4 Supernatural speed
-2 Inhuman Str

(click to show/hide)

+6 Might
+5 Endurance ,  Fists
+4 , Alertness,  Athletics
+3 Conviction, Intimidation,
+2 Survival, Weapon, Discipline
+1 Presense, Scholarship, Lore

-2 Hulking size
-6 Mythic STR
-2 Stomp Power=Might Control=Endurance (maneuver: knocked over)
-1 Claws
-1 echoes of the beast(hearing)

(click to show/hide)

+6 Weapons
+5, Fists, Endurance
+4, Athletics, Might
+3 Conviction, Alertness
+2 Survival, Stealth, Discipline
+1 Presense, Scholarship, Lore

-2 breath weapon (fiery breath)
-1 Claws
-1 Wings
-4 Inhuman speed
-2 Supernatural Str
-2 Hulking size

(click to show/hide)

+6 Athletics
+5 Endurance, Weapons
+4, Fists, Alertness
+3 Conviction, Might
+2 Survival, Stealth, Discipline
+1 Presense, Scholarship, Lore

-2 Screech (sonic screech)
-2 Claws
-1 Wings
-4 Inhuman Str
-2 Supernatural speed
-1 Echoes of the beast (sight)

So, maybe I didn't know the rules as well as I do now...

I'm not sure how similar my beast and yours are, but here's what happened to me:

- I rolled poorly and barely managed to hit anyone,
- It takes a full round action to shift, so that became a problem when I found I was not in an ideal form.
- They found his weakness fairly quickly. (within 3 exchanges)
- I was supposed to have some NPC shape-shifters on the side-lines helping the beast with the fight and I forgot about them...it would have made the fight better, especially since the wizard wouldn't have been able to insta-kill them because they were mortal.

I'd say the fight lasted 5 exchanges, max. The the party obliterated the monster.  Only one character was seriously hurt but he was the tank and had supernatural recovery.

Oh, also, I allowed mental evocations.  That was a mistake.

[PirateJack]

A bit of advice I read on here a while back that I've taken to heart is that you should work out the effective skill ratings of your PCs' attacks/defences, and then have your Big Bad +2/+3 higher than that.

Effective skill rating is basically Skill + Stunt + Power. So for Evocation it would be Discipline + Control Specialisations + Focus Items. For brawlers it would be Fists + Stunt with a Strength Power/Item adding stress.

Do the maths with those and tailor your named NPCs to be +1/2/3 above your PCs.

[Haru]

Yeah, this will pretty much crush your players one after the other, probably even without them ever coming close to hurting it. As the rest said, ignore the guidelines, they don't work.

The first monster I send after my group of 5 players had about 18 refresh spent on 5 submerged characters. The fight lasted quite a while, especially since the thing could soak 10 shift attacks like it was nothing. Since it didn't have too much of an attack rating, and I didn't know how to play its strength yet, it didn't inflict too much damage on the players, too.

Fate is a bit weird in adjusting the strength of your opponents. If the players know how to work together (stacking aspects), they can wipe the floor with a lot of opponents (including the one you linked above), simply because having more actions can be a huge advantage. On the other hand, if they don't work together, an opponent you thought would be rather weak can turn out to be rather difficult for them to deal with.

Ultimately, my advise would be to just try it and get a feeling for it. Be sure everyone at the table knows about concessions, so you have an exit strategy on both sides, if you realize you've miscalculated. If the opponent was too strong, let the players lose, without being turned into pulp, but still at some costs. If the opponent was too weak, but you want to keep him in the game, make him suffer a major setback and get away to scheme another day. Just incorporate the misjudgment into your game and roll with it, and it won't bother you too much. You can learn from it and sooner or later, you know how to adjust the opposition for your group.