The White Council and Demographics

[crusher_bob]

Or: Where are all the wizards with names like Xiao, Mohammed, and Nagesh hiding?

Have done some (very) rough estimates on the number of wizards you'd expect to be around, and how ol dyou'd expect them to be.

Assumptions are as follows
1 birth of wizard class talents are (relatively) randomly distributed over the world's population
2 around one in one million (1 in 1,000,000) births is someone of council level talents

Code: [Select]

           Birthplace
Median     World   Africa Asia  Europe Latin   Northern  Oceania
Age        Total                       America America
235        1780    239    1130   367     36       5        5
185        2201    241    1429   457     54      16        5
135        2840    250    1820   621     86      59        5
Note discontinuity here, source switched from 50 year blocks to 5 year blocks
85         3713    299    2131   918    167     185       14
58          567     50     315   123     38      39        3
53          551     49     308   115     38      37        3
48          522     48     293   105     37      36        3
43          584     55     332   111     44      38        3
38          646     62     375   115     50      41        3
33          712     71     419   118     56      43        4
28          665     71     395   104     54      38        3
23          725     81     433   106     60      40        4
18          658     78     396    90     55      35        3

Totals    16164  1594     9776  3350    775     612       58
(as %)      100%   10%      60%   21%     5%      4%      ~0%

Observations
Re: more young wizards
Worldwide total yearly birthrate of wizards today is around twice as many per year (~140 born a year) when compared to 1900 (~70 per year)

Capture Rate
How likely is someone of council level talents to actually end up with the council?
Also, capture rate may vary by region.  For example, the capture rate for Latin America is likely to be low, since it's implied that the Red Court had a pretty strong grip on that region.

If the council isn't capturing the vast majority of the Asian born wizards, where are they ending up?

[gaelvin]

If the council isn't capturing the vast majority of the Asian born wizards, where are they ending up?

How about the Jade Court?

[Belial666]

1) What if wizards aren't randomly distributed over the world's population? No other supernatural being is, after all.

2) Wizards that are not found, or for some reason neglect or do not believe in their talents, may end up as only minor talents or even lose their powers altogether.

[Dominik]

The books actually hint that the distribution isn't random at all, after all every family member of harry's, beside his father, that we know off is a magic user. Molly's mother is a magic user, perhaps some of her siblings will show the talent, too.
That seems like wizardry is a hereditary thing which means you will not have an even distribution. I'm gonna bet that there are some crazy-old wizard families in europe or (not so crazy-old but still oldish) in new england.

[Todjaeger]

The books actually hint that the distribution isn't random at all, after all every family member of harry's, beside his father, that we know off is a magic user. Molly's mother is a magic user, perhaps some of her siblings will show the talent, too.
That seems like wizardry is a hereditary thing which means you will not have an even distribution. I'm gonna bet that there are some crazy-old wizard families in europe or (not so crazy-old but still oldish) in new england.

Based off some of the information available from the novels, as well as comments made by Jim at a few points, here are some things to consider.

Magic tends to be an inherited condition, which usually follows Salic law, which generally means that it is passed along matrilineal lines.  Which also raises the interesting question of just whom is Harry's maternal grandmother

From a post by Jim, here, it is strongly suggested that in order for ability to handle magic to be passed down, the child has to have been conceived/born at a time when the mother/parent still possessed the ability to use magic.

One of the other things which Jim has apparently said previously (not sure where, can't find the citation presently) is that in the past, there might only be one or two White Council-level wizards born in a (European/Western) country in a generation.  Given the explosion in the human population in the last century, as well as the medical advances which means many ailments which would often kill infants and children before they would be 'old enough' to manifest magic, it is not too surprising that more and more potential candidates would appear.  The current world population is ~6.8 billion, and at the start of 1900, ~1.9 billion, with Europe likely having ~16-32+/- new candidates for membership in the White Council developing in the generation around 1900.  What this would translate into now, is Europe (or the US/Canda) likely having something like 56-100+ candidates develope in the current generation, Harry being one of the more notable ones.

As has also been mentioned in the books, the White Council tends to be a very Eurocentric group, with some members coming from the Mideast, Native Americans, India/South Asia and the Far East, (the Gatekeeper, Joe Listens to Winds and Ancient Mai being obvious) but there are apparently other magical people from these cultures that wield significant powers without being members of the White Council.  So it is quite possible that areas outside of Europe or former European colonies could have their own distinct magical traditions which Jim just hasn't (or won't?) gotten to.

[crusher_bob]

The problem I had with assuming mostly inherited magic is that you wouldn't have the sort of random warlock problems that seem to occur, since everyone would more or less know the people who stood to inherit magic. 

And if magic in mostly inherited, why isn't the white council more clannish?  It looks like the council breaks down by political affiliation not by relation.  So people support the Merlin because they like they status quo, not because he's their great aunts cousins brother, or whatever.  And if magic was strongly inherited, why isn't the council more matriarchal?  Where are all of Ancient Mai's magically turbo-charged descendants that she rules with a fist of iron? 

The way I sort of though about it, around 1 in 1000 births is someone with some sort of minor talent, and they are the ones who are randomly distributed over the population; and the council level talents are largely born to them.  That cuts down on the needle in a needle stack hunt that looking for a young wizard would be, but still makes it difficult to keep track of everyone.

[Todjaeger]

The key thing to remember is that of the numbers I listed, that is the numbers of people (roughly) born per generation that can achieve Council-level power.  They (the people who are potential candidates for the White Council) are presumably born to parents (again, likely female) who are have some level of power, but not necessarily able to reach Council level.  As such, those already within the White Council won't automatically know who can/will have power.  Remember Captain Luccio mentioning that she keeps tabs on her living descendants in Italy, checking up on them every few years to see if any of them start to display talents.

What the actual number of people who are minor talents, etc is indeterminate, at least with the information currently available.

[JustinS]

Where are all of Ancient Mai's magically turbo-charged descendants that she rules with a fist of iron? 

I will need to do something with this as a player or GM someday (esp after the Tiger mother stories getting around the past week).

[deathwombat]

Assumption is the mother of all foulups.

[newtinmpls]

"And if magic in mostly inherited, why isn't the white council more clannish?  It looks like the council breaks down by political affiliation not by relation.  So people support the Merlin because they like they status quo, not because he's their great aunts cousins brother, or whatever.  And if magic was strongly inherited, why isn't the council more matriarchal?"

In my game setting the council is a LOT more clannish; it just seemed to make sense. I have one PC who is a member (now fairly outcast) of the council and one of the major families thereof, and another who is descended from talented (but not wizard level) folks, she is the first one to have actual wizard potential, and she's in the process of her powers blooming - which will have it's down side, since the character is also a member of a local band, and will (as her powers increase) cause more and more problems with the sound system...

"Where are all of Ancient Mai's magically turbo-charged descendants that she rules with a fist of iron?"

Oh damn.....this answers a question I had in my campaign. Thanks!
 
"The way I sort of though about it, around 1 in 1000 births is someone with some sort of minor talent, and they are the ones who are randomly distributed over the population; and the council level talents are largely born to them.  That cuts down on the needle in a needle stack hunt that looking for a young wizard would be, but still makes it difficult to keep track of everyone."

My tweak on the universe is that along with population explosion, there has also been a change in the way the world works (it's refrenced somewhere that 'magic used to curdle milk, now it wrecks tech) based on my playing fast and loose with particle accelorators & weird tech made from Tesla-style messiness, such that there is "more" magic than there used to be. Which spreads the wardens thinner ... which allows more bad guys...

Dian

[crusher_bob]

Hmm, twice necro'd now.  I must have done something right...