True enough, but is not Dresden doing that every time he calls Fire? or Air? or Earth? 50 seems absurd to me.
What? No, I don't believe Harry is changing atomic structures when he casts spells. Fire isn't an element, for one. And Earth, Air, and Water are basically everywhere, so they're not being created out of nothing. But I would allow evocation to turn oxygen into helium (although maybe it could collect and filter out the small amounts of helium in the air...) or copper into cold iron.
50 shifts is still a pretty huge amount. It's based on the idea proposed earlier that "you can't use magic to get rich", so I wanted to suggest a game mechanic to explain that. But "add 5 shifts per kg" was an arbitrary choice. Maybe it should be something like "add 2 shifts per kg", and therefore only add 20 shifts, or "add 5 shifts per 10 kg", and therefore only add 5 shifts. Or maybe the proposed rule #3 needs to be scrapped entirely. I'm definitely open to suggestions!
That being said, permanent transformation requires enough shifts to use up all consequence slots and *then* to take out the object. Assuming something simple with a minor consequence and a moderate, and 3 stress, that's 9 shifts required to transform it period. More depending on it's defense if it gets any. Now take into account that you may not actually get proper "gold" for the lead to gold example, you'd require at the minimum of 4-5 shifts just to add to complexity, maybe more depending (this is taken from the conjuration section, but should apply here as well). At this point, that's approx 15 shifts you'll need. Lets just say that you add 4-5 more to chalk up to added complexity, and vastly different material. That's approx 20 shifts. Oh, and don't forget, you'd probably actually have to have some real gold for the ritual to even work, so that's some resources you'll be tapping into. At this point, wouldn't you be better off just summoning some gold or stealing it from a bank/jewelry store?
Also, I wouldn't say that craftsmanship is required here, as it really isn't for conjuration either. However, I'd be inclined to say that the complexity is limited by your craftsmanship/scholarship, depending on the object. Meaning that if you don't understand the fundamentals of the desired object, you're not going to be able to transform it properly.
Well, the guidelines I proposed are based on the idea that normal objects, in general, can't take consequences, since they can't heal themselves. What would be a mild, moderate, or severe consequence for a bar of lead? It was also based on the idea that simple transformations should be possible (i.e. transforming a rock into a stone chair, transforming a knife into a lock pick, etc.) If every transformation spell starts at a baseline of 9 shifts of complexity, plus several more shifts depending on complexity, then transformation is almost never going to be a useful theme in the game.
Don't misunderstand - I think the argument you gave for this specific spell is completely reasonable. The result certainly "feels" about right. But I'm interested in a simple set of guidelines to follow for
any Transformation ritual, and I'm not sure I could apply your reasoning to other spells and come up with a satisfying result.