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Messages - wyltok

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76
i will remind you of the Novikov self-consistency principle of time travel. NOTHING is proven or disproven till its explained in a book.

I'm afraid that the Novikov self-consistency principle has been proven in the book to not apply to prophecy / foresight. Examples include:

- The prophecy in Death Masks only included two alternatives: Harry dies, or the Knights all die. Neither of these happens.

- Abby replied to a question before he got a chance to make it, and her reply stopped him from making it. Meaning, the timeline where he asked the question never happened in the first place.

- The Gatekeeper used some sort of ability to determine Harry's chances near the end of Turn Coat. This ability gave two different results. If the ability is foresight / time-based (as the dialogue in that scene implies) then it saw two different futures.

Now, what the Novikov self-consistency conjecture states is that only close time loops can happen. But proving that this conjecture is false does not automatically mean that close time loops can't happen, only that they aren't the only alternative.

It's still possible that the Little Chicago situation is a closed time loop. As an example, I'm fairly certain that what Merlin did when he created the Well qualifies as a closed time loop.

77
I see only 4 options for the myrk at Splattercon!!!.
 - Maeve was there, and cast the myrk to cause further disruption and chaos for the fetch.
 - The fetch itself cast the myrk, just like the hobs in SmF did.
 - Mab cast the myrk remotely from AT.
 - TTH, as the WK, cast the myrk to slow down the phage's attack.

The issue with it being Maeve is that we don't have any proof that Maeve was there, other than the lil' vamp.  The issue with the fetch doing it is that none of the other fetches did it.  The issue with Mab doing it is that she was busy in AT.  And the issue with TTH doing it is... because he wasn't there?

There's a few things I like to point out about that particular attack.
 1) The fetch presumably manifested in the room itself, based on Harry's observation at the end that the fetch came through Rosie's compact mirror.  So who wrenched open the door with enough strength to rip it off its hinges?
 2) The myrk cast by the hobbs in SmF wiped out all light, including Harry's amulet, but did nothing to impede his progress physically.  But the myrk in PG allowed both Harry's amulet and staff runes to glow enough around him to see up to 15 feet, yet there was a physical ward included that impeded his ability to navigate toward the theatre.
 3) Harry observed (once again) that the magic seemed familiar.  But Harry hadn't experienced a myrk yet in the books, and hadn't felt any magic of Maeve's, other than her come-hither trick.
 4) Someone was observed leaving the theatre, and then the myrk and pressure left.  If Mab did it remotely, or the fetch did it itself, that observation wouldn't have been necessary.

I propose an option #5. Molly did it.

The reason why it's familiar to Dresden is because it is a mental compulsion similar to the mind fog used by Elaine in Summer Knight that's urging him to stop moving forward (and he breaks it the same way, using his amulet). Really, when you look at this murk ward, it is precisely the kind of spell that a pre-trial Molly would use: a mental compulsion backed by an illusion of darkness (she keeps the illusion of darkness in her post-trial days, too, btw; it's the same spell she used against Luccio during Turn Coat).

We also know from the end of the book, when Harry confronts her at the church, that Molly can summon a not inconsiderate amount of power subconsciously, so she has the oomph for it. And it makes perfect sense for Molly to be near Rosie, since she told Sandra about how worried she was about Rosie in the prior scene, and it makes sense for Molly to hide from Harry rather than reveal her magic, since she's been doing it for years now.

Question is, what about the cold? Here's the thing, though: if you look at the last attack, we have the same coldness happen (it causes a fog to pop up), even though there is no murk that time. So the coldness and the murk are not actually related! The coldness is due to the fetch's presence, while the murk ward is due to another presence, specifically (in my opinion) Molly. Or Maeve, or TTH, or insert your alternative here. But really, I still say a mental compulsion / illusion spell yells "Molly did it!" to me.

78
I thought the echo thing was unique to demon reach?

Hm, I just re-read that section, and it seems I remembered how this works incorrectly. We are actually discussing two separate things.

- There is a law of conservation of history, what Odin calls temporal inertia. This makes changing the past considerably harder than changing the future.

- There is a secondary effect which is the temporal echoes. This effect always manifests for a longer time than the actual time gap that's bridged. Think of ripples in a pond, expanding from the point of impact.

The first element is fairly straightforward, as Elegast pointed out: If Future Harry always traveled to the past to fix LC, then there would be no going against temporary inertia. In which case, Cenphx later post would be correct: Future Dresden did not actually change the past. He merely travelled in time. In time travel, this is known as a time loop. This is considered a paradox, because it means that the knowledge about the flaw in Little Chicago literally appeared out of nowhere (onthological paradox).

Paradoxes aside, it's worth keeping in mind that just because one can travel to the past and not change it does not mean that one cannot travel to the past and change; one thing does not exclude the other (just because some balloons are blue does not mean all balloons are blue).

Now, the temporal echoes or ripples are definitely a bigger problem than I originally thought. From how Odin describes them, they always happen, whether you're traveling forwards or backwards in time. This would imply that the ripples travel in both directions along the timeline, I think? Though there's no mention of echoes after the dawn of November 1st...

The other point regarding the echoes is the magnitude of them, as Cenphx originally pointed out. For a multi-state explosion, the echoes were appropriately massive. I have to agree with the OP: I have no idea what the echoes of a time-travelling Harry would be.

... time travel is confusing.

79
You're making the assumption that Future Dresden traveled to the past to change it, rather than Future Dresden traveled to the past to ensure everything happened the way it was meant to. Think Harry Potter and the Prisioner of Azkaban, where Potter makes the Stag Patronus that saves himself and Sirius from the Dementors.

If the situation here is like the one in Harry Potter, then the time travel is aligned with the temporal inertia, rather than against it, so there would be no temporal echoes in the past. Instead, the temporal echoes would occur near the time in the future where Dresden travels to the past, with the echoes being a result of the timeline changing if Dresden fails to do what he already did.

80
I was recently looking at Elegast's theory index and was surprised to notice that the Gatekeeper is no longer up as a suspect for fixing Little Chicago. This surprised me, as I seem to recall that he was the original suspect. So I decided to make this topic to try to get him back on the list, as I consider him the most likely suspect; maybe I'll be able to convince others.

This topic can be seen as discussing two ideas. The first aspect will focus on the things that point to Rashid being the one who did it. A considerable part of this evidence is based on Rashid's ties with Winter, however, so the inevitable argument will be made that the evidence does not truly differentiate between Rashid and the current forerunner, Mab. So the second  focus of this post will be why Rashid is a more likely Culprit than the Queen of Air and Darkness.
There are five things needed of whoever fixed Little Chicago. In order of difficulty, they are:

1. Whoever did it waited until Bob was out of Harry's place before they did anything. So they had to know about Bob.
2. Whoever did it had to have known that Little Chicago existed and had a fatal flaw.
3. Whoever did it had to understand the magic involved well enough to fix the problem.
4. Whoever did it had to be able to work enough magic inside Harry's house to be able to fix the problem.
5. Whoever did it had to have a way to get into Harry's lab past his wards to fix it.

Let's tackle the points from easiest to hardest. As the topic is rather long, I've separated each one into its own spoiler box.

The Culprit's Point of Entry
(click to show/hide)

The Culprit's Power Level
(click to show/hide)

The Culprit's Skill Level
(click to show/hide)

The Culprit's Knowledge of LC
(click to show/hide)

The Culprit's Knowledge of Bob
(click to show/hide)

Other considerations (Mab & and the murk)
(click to show/hide)

Of the classic investigative triangle, the previous points focus on means and opportunity. In conclusion, I would like to take a look at the final piece of the puzzle: motive. Cold Days is interesting, because in it we learn that Mab was not preparing Molly to become the Winter Lady, but rather thought she would make a better Summer Lady. However, I don't think that the events of Cold Days were completely unexpected. I propose that Rashid's whole purpose in setting Harry up to save Molly was specifically so that she would be there when the time came, and she would become the next Winter Lady. It is as he said to Harry in Cold Days: Harry was the cavalry, come to save the whole debacle initated by Maeve's possession and Harry setting Summer's fire into Winter's Wellspring.

So, with better means, a clearer motive, and ample opportunity, I humbly propose that Wizard Rashid, the Gatekeeper, was the one who fixed Little Chicago as one of the first pebbles that would end with the avalanche of Margaret Katherine Amanda "Molly" Carpenter as Winter Lady. Apologies for any typos or errors I missed, and I would certainly love to hear everyone's thoughts and feedback.

81
A random thought about the idea of Elaine being infected. In White Night, after the fight in Thomas' boat where Harry turns the lake's surface to ice and survives being shot at with a machine gun, Thomas, Elaine, the other practitioners, and an unconcious Harry go to ground. Harry spends 8 hours unconscious, most of that time without Thomas around, and awakens to Elaine performing a spell on his head. She claims that it is Reiki, but it would seem to me to be the perfect opportunity for her to infect Harry.

It is worth pointing out as well that it is after this book that Harry's headaches begin.

Of course, on the other hand, even if Harry was knocked out, Lash was not, and I'm fairly certain she would have let Harry know if Elaine did try to infect him in his sleep.

On the gripping hand, Lash mentioned that she recognized Vittorio's possesion by an Outsider because she had felt such a presence before. Maybe she meant in Elaine?

82
What's the reference for that latter date ?  Titania not having spoken to Mab since before the Battle of Hastings (1066) might well connect, there.

The reference is a WoJ where someone asks about the staff and Jim says to look for info in that time and a particular place (Ireland, I think it was?).

83
DF Reference Collection / Re: [CD spoilers] Small Favor
« on: December 20, 2012, 12:22:52 PM »
A troll snatching a kid off a playground for a snack is very different then a troll under Mab's orders doing ANYTHING.  Kid snatching is troll NATURE.

And even then, under the Accords, trolls are only allowed to snatch naughty kids (as discussed in Restoration of Faith). Nice kids are safe. Every other Fae is probably similarly constrained by their nature. A knight isn't: they can go against anyone the Queens deem needs killing.

84
DF Reference Collection / Re: Morgana Le Fay (includes CD spoilers)
« on: December 18, 2012, 08:09:56 PM »
I don't recall seeing that one, and I'd rather like to, as I've believed that for some time.

It's part of the classic Proven Guilty WoJ that discusses the fetches, Mab's ability to predict Harry, etc (sidenote: it's a little sad that I can find such an important WoJ more easily in the DLP forums than here). I underlined whe part we're interested in.

Mab as orchestrator of all is just a little much for me to swallow. Seems like she loses a lot more than she gains, and I don't think Mab is big on coming out behind in her negotiations.

Yeah. It sure looks that way from here, don't it.

But to correct some minor stuff: the fetches aren't even /close/ to her strongest servitors. They're her couriers, harassers, spies and occasional assassins. Captain Kudzu was a being that was deemed more-or-less sufficient on the badassometer, but nothing to write home about. The fetches main use, to Mab, isn't as battlefield thugs. She's got /plenty/ of other things for that. Another mild correction: who says Mab /lost/ the battle at Arctis Tor, before Harry and Company arrived? At the end of the day, the Winter Queen was still in her fortress--but you didn't see anyone standing around assaulting the place, did ya.  Also, it has probably occurred to more than one of you that if Mab was /really/ in trouble, she could have had the entire military might of Faerie back at the fortress in moments--exactly the way they *did* come back when Harry smacked the Winter Well with the fires of Summer.

(Which goes to show that while Mab may be canny to an inhuman degree, she isn't infallible. Just way closer to infallible than us.)

See above regarding "the question is *why*?"

Ask yourself why Mab had Molly brought in. What chain of events did that set in motion? What secondary effects came about because of it? Ultimately, Mab can always go to the Wyld and draw in more muscle to replace fallen thugs. If worst comes to worst, with just a few "seed" fae, she could rear up enough Changelings to repopulate her cadre within a human generation or two--nothing, to a being thousands of years old.

As far as she's concerned, everyone and everything is expendable, including herself, when it comes to adhering to her (seemingly irrational and inexplicable) priorities.

(And by the way--don't think Titania is much better. When push came to shove, she let her own daughter be murdered rather than upset the balance of the Faerie Courts. At least Mab is up front about it. Usually.)

Sacrifice her best troops? Mab would sacrifice every creature *in* Winter, every one she could bring from Summer, and every single mortal on planet Earth if that's what she thought was appropriate. And she wouldn't even need to add extra sugar to her cup of tea afterwards, much less lose sleep over it.

But no one does cold-blooded like the Queen of Winter. Mab's been in the business a long time, she's got a balance sheet, and she is *not* going to come out in the red--

--unless, of course, she really *has* stripped a gear, as Lily and Maeve believe. In which case there's a stark raving bonkers demigoddess whose powers are no longer being held in check by the Escher-esque code of Sidhe behavior. And that's all kinds of bad.

But hey. It's probably not that. I mean, not *everything* that happens can be the absolute worst possible possibility, right?

Jim

85
DF Reference Collection / Re: Morgana Le Fay (includes CD spoilers)
« on: December 18, 2012, 08:00:00 PM »
I am not seeing that as notably different from the bit in CD about burying the deceased ladies on Demonreach, fwiw.

Which just goes to show, that not even Mab is as cold and implacable as advertised, nor is Titania as passionate and family-oriented as suggested. After all, per WoJ, Harry only succeeded in killing Aurora because Titania allowed it to happen for the sake of the balance.

86
DF Reference Collection / Re: Morgana Le Fay (includes CD spoilers)
« on: December 18, 2012, 07:24:45 PM »
Mother Summer seems to have everything under control so I think it is just the combination of Mantle and person that counts.

I was actually going to use Lea as a comparison, instead. She doesn't seem nearly as cold and implacable as Mab, either (for example, her taking care of Susan's remains in Changes), the same way as Eldest Gruff isn't as passionate as Titania. So yeah, it may be a mantle thing.

87
DF Reference Collection / Re: Morgana Le Fay (includes CD spoilers)
« on: December 18, 2012, 06:52:04 PM »
yep, as i noted, this charchter has a long, long history going all the way back to the red branch celtic legends- where she was Mab's sister.

I wonder if in the jIm verse she was Titania's predecessor?

Hmm... we do know from WoJ that the current Mother Summer has not had that mantle as long as Mother Winter has (the previous Mother Summer abdicated). If you are right, and Morgana was Titania's predecessor, would that make her the current Mother Summer?

when it comes to implacable will or super human intellignece, summer just ahsnt impressed me that much, yet.

I suspect that that implacable will and super human intelligence are not summer's purpose. They seem to exist to balance out those excesses, so that humanity and free will may flourish in the middle.

88
DF Reference Collection / Re: Morgana Le Fay (includes CD spoilers)
« on: December 18, 2012, 04:32:18 PM »
In PG Lea mentions:

Quote
I grew too arrogant with the power I held.  I thought I could overcome what stalks us all.


Given our current understand, she may well be referencing Nemesis.  It's not obvious from the text when she grew arrogant.  Maybe she felt powerful enough during GP (e.g. because of her bargain with Starborn Harry, or because she was in possession of Ammorachius) to be able to accept the Athame without being corrupted?

That actually makes a lot of sense, and certainly explains what she meant there.

89
DF Reference Collection / Re: Morgana Le Fay (includes CD spoilers)
« on: December 18, 2012, 03:23:17 PM »
This is a very good catch, knnn! I agree that Morgana was likely patient zero for Nemesis.

Which of course, begs the question: why did Lea agree to receive the Athame in Grave Peril? It almost seems as though Lea (and by extension, the Winter Court) was not aware that Morgana had been infected by Nemesis all those years ago.

On the other hand, Titania knew Nemesis' name. Maybe Morgana spent her time with Summer instead of Winter?

90
DF Reference Collection / Re: A Badelynge of Quackiness, Part Two
« on: December 17, 2012, 09:17:19 PM »
In incline to read Mother Summer at the Gates as saying that Winter holds this duty in this age of the world, as it were, but that there have been other before; that and Rashid appearing to talk to Harry in a manner consistent with being linearly timebound to their previous conversations appear to me rule out the no-space-and-time posit on the Outside.

I don't believe that the area outside the Gates is truly Outside, nor truly part of the Never Never. Rather (in my opinion) it's an in-between place like Chicago-ove-Chicago or the Valley of the Stone Table. I agree with you that time and distance appear to be nice and stable there, which is probably something the Gates are designed to accomplish so that the defenders are actually capable of defending instead of succumbing to madness trying to navigate the Non-Eucledian Landscape (TVTropes Warning).

If there is only Here and Now, if there is action (as we see in the attack on the Outer Gates), it implies purpose, and for there to be Purpose, there must also be consensus.

Not following your logic here either; does a spinal reflex pulling away from a flame imply purpose ?

Apologies for using anthropomorphic speech. They should have sent a poet, but alas, I'm but an engineer. What I mean by purpose does not necessarily imply that there is sentience or reason behind it. Your quote above is a clear example of purpose without reason (namely, evolution). Another classic example is a bubble's circular shape (with the purpose being that nature tends toward the lowest energy state possible, no sentience required). I suppose I could have used "reason" instead of "purpose", but that word is even more correlated in my mind with sentience, so I stuck with purpose.

In any case: try to picture a situation where secrets are impossible. Where your very name reveals every aspect of your being. Where it is impossible to go into the corner and work out an alliance with a few; where everyone hears everything you have to say in favor of some action, and has already heard it all before, so you are incapable of changing his mind, and you know you are incapable of changing his mind, because he has no secrets from you, either. There are but two possibilities I can envision: total chaos, as that only available instant of indecision becomes permanent, due to lack of advancing time. Or unity of purpose, as some sort of consensus is reached that has always been reached and will have always been reached (again, when I use the word "purpose" here, I don't imply all the beings on the Outside are sentient, held a vote, and reached a decision, so much as they all obey the same rules of nature, as it were).

I propose that the beings of chaos of the Outside, when they enter into the non-chaos of our reality, becomes somewhat like Harry's description of goblins in Changes: all different, yet curiously similar. And that's why they all seem to act toward a single purpose: it's not so much a choice they made, as an inevitable rule of their nature.

On largest-scale goal, perhaps, but on strategy, and smaller goals along the way?

That is certainly an interesting question: are all those infected by Nemesis connected? Did He Who Walks Before recognize Harry as He Who Walks Behind did back in Blood Rites?

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