I'm not going to be responding to everything stated here, because some of these posts are getting really long. I'll try to cover every point brought up, but no promises.
This is still assuming a level of micromanagement that's probably completely unnecessary for an edge case that probably never, or almost never, comes up in any kind of practical sense. If it hasn't happened in 2,000 years, Nicodemus isn't going to give a damn about the possibility.
Nicodemus is a spymaster. Keeping track of what his enemies know/believe is
what he does.I'm not saying it's his first priority, but between Anduriel and the fact that we
know that there is enough corruption in the Church for the Denarians to keep getting their coins back, it wouldn't be that difficult for him to keep track of.
As you say, it's at best remote; and I doubt Michael would be swayed, anyway.
Agreed.
He literally looks Harry in the eye and says that if Harry takes up the coin, he absolutely will be there, and says so while his hand is on his sword. I don't know what more you could possibly want on this -- Michael makes it absolutely clear that he is fully prepared to take his best friend's head off if need be.
I'll accept this as provisionally true, on the basis that the only argument I can think of making against it is personal and I don't want to discuss it; and I'm not going to claim you're wrong without providing an explanation of why I think so.
I kinda don't think formal logic comes into play; we're not talking about randomized statistical samples here.
Formal logic only comes into play because you were claiming that this wasn't evidence; formal logic allows me to establish that it absolutely is evidence.
How much weight to give that evidence, on the other hand...
Nicodemus is arrogant as hell, and after a couple hundred years of nobody to his knowledge removing a Shadow, he probably just thinks it's impossible and stops worrying, if he ever worried at all.
He's as vulnerable to confirmation bias as anyone, so if he doesn't want there to be a way to get rid of a Shadow, and in a couple hundred years, nobody does, that's good enough for him to conclude that it's simply a non-issue.
Maybe, but I seriously doubt that Nicodemus is going to decide "well, I've been spying on the Church for 2000 years, I'll just stop now."
The argument you should be making is that Nicodemus doesn't consider the possibility of Harry having gotten rid of the shadow because he's
well aware that Harry's still throwing magic around, and furthermore that he's been using hellfire.
True. I won't posit that he can go to The Man Upstairs for confirmation on everything, but given what we see in the books, I'd suggest that his intuition and "gut feeling" is probably more accurate than most when he's trying to suss out the truth.
Fair enough.
Fair on the first bit. On the second, again, I have to insist that Michael has no reason to be aware of these risks, and that the "missing information" didn't exist until it was posited in this thread. It's just not a reasonable concern he would have or should have had, and it's unfair to expect him to account for it.
I'd argue that the missing information was in the books, but absolutely Michael would not know it. That was the point I was trying to make--Michael does not and should not be expected to have access to this information.
I wouldn't call it an exaggeration, per se, but as I said, Michael tends to speak with conviction and sureness; he believes it will work, so he speaks as if it's a sure thing.
Fair enough. At this point I'm convinced that Michael absolutely had reason to believe that his suggestion would help and would be the right thing to do (I just think it might not have done quite as much as he implied it would--but as you pointed out, that could just be a result of Michael's certainty, rather than any attempt to deliberately mislead Harry).
Isn't kind of like believing in the afterlife? Some believe in it even though there is no documented evidence proving it and will argue hard that there is one... Others believe just as hard that dead is dead, and there is actually good evidence for that belief.. But those who believe in the afterlife will continue to cling to the belief despite the evidence... So who is lying?
I think this is an issue of differing axioms and differing beliefs about what constitutes evidence.
I'd rather not discuss it further, because it's getting too near real world religious issues for my comfort.