Unless those mortals were well placed - in reference to Harry. Each of them are part of significant events in his life. It could well be that Nemesis is far more focussed on Harry than we realise.
It's possible, but I don't think it's the most likely solution. Not without more compelling evidence.
It's certainly possible Maggie was the founder. I personally think it's actually older and Kemmler founded it. But there's no way to know really until we have more information about the Black Council. Btw, do we know for sure that the Black Council think they're using Nemesis? I don't remember any conversation with a confirmed member of this still-unconfirmed organisation. We only have Harry's speculation on the whole thing. We don't have anyone saying "Hey, join our super friends team called "the Black Council" - we have great dental!". I think we have to be careful about assuming anything about the Black Council.
It's speculation, but it fits what we know so far about Maggie Sr's associates. Kemmler is possible, but he strikes me as more of a lone megalomaniac than the guy to build a legion of doom.
I like Maggie Sr for the Circle founder because we know that she was hopping all around the world befriending some tough customers. We also know from Luccio she was interested in changing the Laws of Magic to be more just. That led to the famous dinner fight with Eb and some major vampire players where she tried to recruit him. When that didn't work, she went to his best friend Simon Pietrovich, i.e. Cowl. His apprentice Justin DuMorne follows along. Eventually, Maggie Sr changes her mind about things and tries to pull out, and she's only mildly successful. The rest is difficult to make guesses at without a better understanding of motives.
As far as using Nemesis, it's been around forever from what we can surmise. For a Maggie Sr Circle, desperate for the power to try to make the world a better place, Nemesis probably seemed like a dangerous but enticing ally. They don't want it to succeed in destroying reality, but they need its power to make the changes they think should be made to the current order. Nemesis is using the BC to get ahead itself with the chaos of a secret powerful faction.
Did the Red Court want to avoid Empty Night? Were the ideals of the whole of the Court the same as the ideas of their most dominant faction? Did the leadership of the Court really say what they wanted?
I don't think we have any real answers to those questions. But we do know that Arianna represented a powerful faction at odds with the Red King. We know that there was at least one Lord of the Outer Night involved who wished to rule the whole Red Court.
Considering the Red Court leaders called themselves the Lords of the "Outer Night" which has been used interchangeably in the series with Outside...there is a clear connection between the two. Who says they weren't merely the agents of the Outside on Earth? The goals of the Red Court were largely unknown beyond feeding, domination and slaughter. Let alone the goals of the Red King, or whatever internal faction Arianna was a part of etc.
We just don't know if the Red Court really wanted the Masquerade to continue. In point of fact, part of the reason to remove the Wizards was to begin a free-for-all hunting season on humanity.
I don't think "Outer Night" is anywhere interchangeable with beyond the Outer Gates.
It's hard to figure out different motivations for the Red Court factions because most of the perspectives that we get are villain monologues. I don't think they wanted to end the masquerade, just less interference on how they managed their food source. Riled mortals are still stronger with their ferromancy.