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Messages - dspringer1

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121
DF Spoilers / Re: Fellowship and Formor
« on: October 06, 2017, 08:37:22 PM »
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Consider how it would look to an outsider; mysterious deaths and/or kidnappings occur, and activity among these people increase. It seems like they speak in code to someone who isn't clued in. "We had another ghoul attack," for example; how would someone gathering intelligence interpret that? To some, things might look like a territorial or criminal interest dispute. Then they call in help from people like Dresden, who is definitely on several terror watchlists by this point...

There are thousands of people who die each year in car accidents who gather together in groups, engage in strange dialoged and code words and have a massive social network of semi-cryptic communication.   Is this a conspiracy against some secret society or a coincidence.   If I said the group were football fans and the accidents were just random chance.  If you get millions of fans, statistically several thousand would die in car accidents.  It is not a conspiracy.

My point is that the police agencies would have to
a) recognize that that paraneters are some kind of international organization with a specific agenda
b) recognize that all these disappearances of various marginal members of society are connected and not just a random spike in crime. 
c) recognize that the paranet is the connection point -- despite the fact that I suspect "most" of the kidnapped are not paranetters.   I suspect only a fraction of the gifted belong the paranet as active paranet participation requires a high degree of passion to overcome inertia/business of life. 
d) recognize that there is something different about paranetters that makes them a target (ie - magic). 

So if someone connects A, B, C together, they can see a pattern.   Even if they do see the pattern, they will not understand/accept it as causation unless they know D.  Then they must convince their peers and superiors it is important when they those same superiors will almost certainly not accept D.   

It is certainly possible given the scale of kidnappings the Formor have conducted.  But it is still not likely and almost certainly not something accepted wildly except maybe by the government magical agency which has the advantage of already knowing C and D.   

122
DF Spoilers / Re: Changes battle, we only saw the surface?
« on: October 06, 2017, 08:25:09 PM »
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The part that blows my mind is that the ritual was one of the dumbest things the reds could do.

 They know for a fact that when Ortega went after Dresden in a underhanded manner a satellite crashed and destroyed everything for hundreds of yards around his house.
That was meant to be an example, so yes they know it wasn't random.

So their great plan is to go after Dresden in a underhanded manner while gathering all of their strongest members and almost all of their weaker ones within a couple hundred yards.
they were not even particularly secretive about the fact that they were all gathering there.  With the senior councils information gathering ability its almost a sure thing that they would find out.
Thats the main reason i think their was some more important goal than killing Ebeneezer.  If their wasn't the red court would have died out long ago from similar stupid plans.

Ok so let's argue the value of the ritual.
* The initiator of the ritual is Arianna, not the Red King.   She needed something public, something dramatic and something deadly.   The ritual was way over the top, but that is what her power struggled called for if she was to overthrow the Red King.   And she probably had the support of a lot of the Lords of Outer Night behind her --enough that the Red King dare not squash it. 

*  The Red King, once Arianna is dead, also needed something dramatic.  It is unlikely he would have kicked off the ritual himself, but if Arianna did  - utilizing the ritual himself makes perfect sense.   So the Red King would not have been in some hurry to end the ritual.  He needed the ritual to shore up his support as well for almost the same reasons as Arianna. 

*  Consolidating all the Red Court together in one place is not that major a risk.  They disabled a lot of the White Council already.  The Lords of Outer Night were no doubt on guard against some kind of magical assault (falling satellite for example) and would not be killed by such an act.   The Lords of Outer Night could swat that satelite out of the sky in an instant.  Maybe the Fellowship could have hidden a nuclear bomb at the site and blown them all up -- but outside of that scenario it is hard to see how the Red Court would have been seriously threatened.   After all, even with the surpise intervention of three knights of the cross, at least one minor god (odin), an army of Kenku, leah, the new winter knight,  and some of the biggest heavy hitters on the council --- the white council was clearly loosing.  And that was without the lords of the outer night playing a significant role in most of the battle.    The conditions that allowed Harry to win were real "threading the needle in the middle of a hurricane" type conditions. 

*  The value of the kills is huge.   Killing Harry and you kill the boogieman scary enough to cause red court vampires to run away in battle -- and whose death would allow the red court leadership to end the premature war now and finish off the council in 30 years.   Killing Eb destroys the most powerful war wizard in the white council and likely destabilizes the leadership of the white council. 

*  Further more, it is possible that the curse would be so powerful that it shatters the wards around Edinburgh when it takes out Eb.  It would take the white council weeks or months to repair those wards.   I can totally see the Red court celebrating victory when they complete the ritual and then spending the very next night attacking Edinburgh.   The vamps are running an a victory high and the wizards are sickened, scared and demoralized.    They obviously could not count on Eb being there, but it would be a nice bonus.  Even if the ritual did not crack the wards, the momentum they would get from these events would probably allow the Red Court to break the White council in weeks. 

So big upside, little chance for downside.   Why not do it.     

I do agree that the Reds should have stationed a lot more guards around the trigger, but remember the logic that Bob said.  Unless you sacrifice a red court vamp on the alter, it is hard to see how the ritual could hurt the red court.   And almost the entire Lords of Outer Night were there to defend the ritual when Harry got there.   

I do agree it was arrogant for the Red Court to create such a weapon that another could take from their hand.  But the United States builds nuclear bombs and there is always a remote chance that somebody could steal one and use it against us.   We still build them because the bombs are damn useful in the right circumstances so we accept the small risk.   At the end of the day, the Reds did not think anybody had a real chance to take their weapon and they died because they were wrong.   

123
DF Spoilers / Re: Wizard strength level
« on: October 06, 2017, 08:00:14 PM »
So there are two variables.
1) Source of power -- presumably a wizard could tap with the right ritual/assistance an extremely powerful ley line to get the power equivalent to that of a god, although i doubt any wizard would have that level of power "internally".

2) Effectiveness in utilizing the power - presumably a wizard's skill will determine how efficiently the can control/manage/use that power.   In changes, it was clear that a big power source is more difficult to control, but clearly a very skill wizard can handle a LOT of power. 

I am not arguing against what JB said.  With sufficient power, a wizard can rewrite reality.   Certainly a wizard's careful application of magic in a specific use case could match what (for example) Mab could do.   That is certainly god-like power. 

But recognize the difference.
1) The wizard can match Mab's power with very careful preparation toward a specific end.  Mab can wing it... So Mab's ability to display godlike power in many different ways in a relatively short period of time is an order of magnitude better than any wizard could do.   

2) The wizard is relying on an external power source.  Mab is not.  Presumably Mab could also draw on external sources and thus again exceed the wizard.

3) Mab is fairly weak on the god scale.   Mother Winter is an order of magnitude stronger than Mab and she is maybe average on the god scale.   

4) remaking reality is a vague statement.   Uriel - for example - can destroy galaxies.  I would argue that Uriel can remake reality on a lot larger scale than any wizard could possible manage.   

5) ANY individual can remake reality if they apply just the right force, at just the right time, in just the right place when conditions are in perfect balance.   I suspect that is why mortal will decide the fate of the universe.   The gods and godlike horrors are in balance.   So despite their enormous power relative to all of mortal kind, the mortals are the only beings really free to tip the oh so very carefully balanced scale.   

124
DF Spoilers / Re: Fellowship and Formor
« on: October 04, 2017, 03:39:41 PM »
Cult or crazy very likely.   The whole "magic is not real" thing makes that designation very likely - plus many are probably a bit strange.   

Terrorist or gang - not so likely.  If magic is not real, they hardly seem dangerous.  They are a mixture of people from all walks of society and tend to be led by old women (witches) or men (wizards) as these individuals have the most skill.  Very few engage in illegal activities.


125
DF Spoilers / Re: "Conjure by it at your own risk."
« on: October 03, 2017, 11:26:08 PM »
Another possibility. 

Harry was roaring out his name because it really helped his defense against the Outsider and his attack to drive the Outsider's mind out of his own.  The Outsider was attacking his mind and soul.  Harry's name is an expression of his mind and soul.  By calling out his own name, Harry was - in effect - heavily reinforcing his mind/soul against attack and simultaneously using that naming to expel the Outsider which did not belong. 

It is an open question what the outsider can do with this name spoken in this context.   After all, the name was not spoken "out loud".  Previous comments indicated that naming was very precise and simply reading his name from his birth certificate (for example) would not help anyone.  I am sure all of Harry's enemies know his full name.  They just do not "KNOW" his full name. 

126
DF Spoilers / Re: Fellowship and Formor
« on: October 03, 2017, 11:18:45 PM »
Not sure I see the paranet being such a bridge.   After all, it has a very specific mission - magic using humans. 

It could become an organization that offers protection to outcasts or other supernatural flavored groups, but there has been no evidence to date that it has done so.   At best it has semi-allied itself with Marcone and the White court to defend itself vs the Formor.  But that alliance is clearly opportunistic and temporary.   

127
DF Spoilers / Re: What does the Merlin want out of Peace Talks
« on: October 03, 2017, 11:16:15 PM »
I am not sure that our view of territory matches that of the supernatural races.   Case in point.  The Red court territory was Central and South America.  Yet they had operations in North America, Africa, Europe which they used in their war with the White Council.   It was also noted that wizards of the White Council lived in Central and South America despite the Red's control of that space.  (examples given in books)

I am guessing that territory is more of a measure of effective dominance than exclusive use.  The Reds controlled Central and South America and thus dominated the local governments, had a strong presence in most countries, and were clearly the most powerful supernatural nation in the area.  Anybody who lived in this region had to respect Red Court power and live to some extent with their dictates.    This is why Bianca had to respect Harry in Chicago - she was operating in .White Council territory.  Harry's ability to threaten her would have been much less if the same conversation occurred in Bogota

I suspect there are many pockets of supernatural races in Central and South America.  Any one pocket might be relatively weak in the grand scheme of things, but collectively I suspect there was a lot of power there.  Now that the Reds are gone, it is these pockets that have the most opportunity to expand -- and compete against outside powers moving in (like the Formor).  Of course, not every supernatural races is expansionistic or able to expand quickly even if so inclined.  But I suspect most of them will expand their own territory to some extent now that the Reds are broken. 

128
DF Spoilers / Re: Which absent villian will appear in Peace Talks?
« on: October 03, 2017, 11:02:49 PM »
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Well, we know that Mab is going to be looking to take them down a notch, they were attempting to violate her Accords with their backstabbing actions in 'Bombshells'.

I think you are misreading the situation.   Mab is going to take down the Formor because she believes they are working with the Outsiders.   However, Mab is constrained in her actions.  If she can get the formor to actually violate the accords, then she can directly act against them.  Right now she is limited to indirect action like that of Leah in Bombshells. 

Do not get me wrong.  Mab will defend the accords in any case.  All I am saying is that Mab had very good reasons to take down the Formor well before any accord violation takes place.   She is actively looking for an excuse to act. 


129
DF Spoilers / Re: Which absent villian will appear in Peace Talks?
« on: October 03, 2017, 05:23:14 PM »
The formor have not been waging war in the accords sense.  They have not made war with any major supernatural race.  The formor have been very aggressively moving to grab mortals with supernatural powers (who do not have status under the accords), although that has put them in some conflict with the White Council which has some protective impulses over the lesser human magic types. 

In the process, they have been riling the other supernatural powers. 
*  They have clearly been pressing against White Council interests in Europe and North America. 
*  It is implied that other supernatural powers are being pressed as well, especially those who want to take territory in the former Red Court lands.  Not at the level of a war, but certainly at the level where "border incidents" and "diplomatic incidents" and "regrettable deaths of not quite formal allies" occurs
*  They have been unusually public in their pursuit, raising worries that normal humans will become aware of supernatural events
*  They have seriously offended the Svartelves (aka - as seen in Bombshells).  And the svartelves were worried about the Formor actions before these events occurred - which was why the agreement with the Formor was originally planned. 
*  They clearly care little for the accords
*  Winter is clearly seeing them as a threat and working to contain that threat (also seen in bombshells)

130
DF Spoilers / Re: What does the Merlin want out of Peace Talks
« on: October 03, 2017, 03:23:26 PM »
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What would the council want with territory? All of the WC wizards we've seen on-screen have had a personal domain or area and couldn't really care about the rest. Half the Senior Council seem to have no interests in material wealth at all.

Multiple Reasons
1) Much easier to find and recruit wizards in territory that they mostly control.  This is not a strong reason as the White Council cannot effectively recruit in their own territory.
2) There are wizards in these lands and the white council dominating this territory makes them safer/stronger/more effective.  Many of these would argue for expanding their area of dominion. 
3) Keeping the territory means that some other supernatural races does not have it.   That means some other supernatural race is not getting a lot stronger and thus a bigger threat. 
4) Status

131
DF Spoilers / Re: Was Justin preparing Harry to learn necromancy?
« on: October 03, 2017, 03:18:03 PM »
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That said, given that even Butters is apparently a better Wizard then him (in spite of having literally zero magical talent) Harry may well be over-estimating himself.

I think you are overselling your point.   Butters is very intelligent and very creative in using Bob's magic.  But that is a long way from saying Butters is a wizard in any way. 
*  The hard part of being a wizard is actually casting the spell.  It requires skill, concentration, power and knowledge.   Butters clearly lacks the power, skill and concentration required, although with Bob's help he has the knowledge.
*  Most of the work involved in Butter's use of magic is Bob's, not Butters.   
*  Most of the magic we saw used is an application of magic that Harry and Bob has already worked out years ago.  (skate board, potions, etc).  It is applied in creative ways, but the hard design work had already been done.   

Do not get me wrong. Butters is amazing.  It is just not wizardry. 

132
DF Spoilers / Re: Fellowship and Formor
« on: October 03, 2017, 02:58:49 PM »
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The scions similar to the talented practioners, they are straddling the line between the mortal and supernatural realm. They both could be seen as mortals marked by the supernatural. Full wizards are far more seperated from the mortal world.

I would instead state it as follows.  Scions are mortals who share some supernatural traits with their supernatural parent, but still retain the mortality of their other (human) parent.  Some like half fey have the ability to become fully supernatural. Others are always going to be in that half state.   

Kazimmoinuddin is correct that many are probably more comfortable with technology that a powerful wizard as few supernatural races have a problem using technology.  However, I suspect many scions have other issues based on scion status such as unusual appearance, cravings, allergies, crazy relatives, etc.   There is no source of power in the Dresden world that comes without liabilities. 

133
DF Spoilers / Re: What does the Merlin want out of Peace Talks
« on: September 28, 2017, 04:54:06 PM »
I think their victory in the war gives the White Council a legitimate claim on the territory.    That is not nothing, but it is not enough to keep the territory by itself.  If the White Council lacks the strength or will to defend the territory, other supernatural races WILL move in and take over the territory.   The supernatural races are almost all predators after all.   

I think if conditions were different, the White Council could probably claim and keep a big chunk of the captured territory, but even under ideal conditions the White Council would have lacked the numbers/strength to hold ALL the former Red Court's territory.   After all, it would be a doubling of the size of White Council territory (which is mostly Europe and North America prior to the war) and it is not exactly easy to govern either (dysfunctional governments, criminal gangs, power vacuums, income disparities, ect).  That is an awful lot to absorb and defend even if conditions were ideal.  And things are certainly NOT ideal now. 


134
DF Spoilers / Re: bonies conception is in the book small favors
« on: September 28, 2017, 03:25:01 PM »
The act of creation was at the point where Harry was held fast by the will of the Outsiders in the Grotto and Lash sacrificed herself to allow him to act.  It was her one act of selfless love -- and thus the spark of creation in this matter.  Whether Uriel helped or not is irrelevant in my mind.  She choose. 

135
DF Spoilers / Re: What does the Merlin want out of Peace Talks
« on: September 28, 2017, 03:22:14 PM »
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I think the argument for Harry being the Merlin's ace-in-the-hole is primarily Doylist. From Jim's perspective, the reason to build a book around a concept like a summit is to play with Harry's now divided loyalties.

Very logical.  But in order for that play to make sense, the Merlin's agenda has to have changed.   His old agenda was to return to the status quo.   I can see no scenario where the Merlin would rely on Harry to achieve that outcome.   



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The WCW's inability to defend all of this now-exposed territory is why I feel like the Merlin might be willing to trade away the safety of some portion of the vanilla mortals and lower talents for peace.

Of course the Merlin would trade away territory.  Giving away territory is easy - all the troublesome nations would happily accept the territory of the Red as a gift.   The peace talks would only be challenging if the Merlin did NOT want to give away most of the territory.  And given this territory might strengthen very dangerous potential enemies of the White Council, the Merlin has a strong incentive to manage the territory changes that come out of the Peace Talks. 
*  The White Council may lack the strength to keep large blocks of the territory
*  The White Council may lack the enthusiasm/support to keep large blocks of the territory
*  Other powers may object to the White Council claiming the territory.

If the purpose of the White Council is to leave the Peace Talks with some agreement that aids the White Council in keeping a lot of this territory - or at least make sure that the territorial gains other powers make do not threaten the White Council, that can be a very good use of Peace Talks  (in the eyes of the Merlin). 

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I didn't state that Harry would be a knowing and willing ace-in-the-hole plan.

I did not make that assumption.  But the Merlin "knows" Harry to some extent and would predict the likely outcome if Harry gets involved (insults, threats, fights, disruption, etc).     The only reason I can think of for the Merlin to want harry there is
a) he wants the talks to fail and the war continue
b) he expects the talks to break down into open fighting and he wants one of his most dangerous wardens there in the fight


Besides, I thought I read on this site that Mab was the one insisting Harry be at the peace talks - against the Merlin's wishes. 


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