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The Dresden Files => DF Spoilers => Topic started by: g33k on June 01, 2024, 12:27:42 AM
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... at 50%
per jim's little "progress-o-meter" widget.
https://www.jim-butcher.com/faq/upcoming-works
I think I recall it at 50% kind of a long time ago...
Is Jim having another case of writers' block?
Is he so feverishly-productive that he's had no time to update his widget?
Did the Dresdenverse suffer a temporal anomaly, and he's had to go back and re-write a bunch of stuff?
Or...?
I'm hoping Jim's event at last weekend's Comicpalooza (or last month at the Steampunk Expo) shook loose some in-person bit of info, that "the channels" didn't see.
Or maybe it's all already old news somewhere else...?
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According to a fan who attended Comicpalooza this past weekend, Jim said he's planning to turn the book to the editors by July 1st.
In theory, that could give us a release by the end of the year.
I don't trust him to keep that schedule, personally, but let's hope.
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Do I remember reading that Jim had another case of COVID? If so, that could explain the delay. Long COVID is a bear to deal with (bear being spelled so it rhymes with witch). It's also possible that he's just gotten distracted again.
In any case I too wish he'd finish this book and move on to complete the series. I'm getting old and want to find out what happens in the BAT. If it takes him another 20 years to finish I don't think I'll be around for the ending.
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According to a fan who attended Comicpalooza this past weekend, Jim said he's planning to turn the book to the editors by July 1st.
In theory, that could give us a release by the end of the year.
I don't trust him to keep that schedule, personally, but let's hope.
OK, the widget's just out of date, then -- TYVM, Lara!
Not even Jim "I couldn't keep a writing schedule if you threatened me with a radioactive wood-chipper" Butcher could estimate July 1st if the draft was only 50% done.
Like you, I don't trust that timing; but it's a strong indication that the draft is close (way closer than 50% done).
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According to a fan who attended Comicpalooza this past weekend, Jim said he's planning to turn the book to the editors by July 1st.
In theory, that could give us a release by the end of the year.
I don't trust him to keep that schedule, personally, but let's hope.
Thanks Lara, at least that's more promising than the 50% but I'll be happy so long as he gets it done
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Today we have 54% :)
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Today we have 54% :)
And only 46% left to do! ::) ;)
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Today we have 54% :)
:o
Hrmph.
That is... not as much progress as I was hoping we'd see (after the stuck-at-50% blockage & his estimate delivered at Comicpalooza).
Jim -- if you're reading this -- you'd best advise your editors you'll be missing that "July 1st" ETA!
;)
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Agree, but at least the loading bar is moving again. I am almost sure Jim won't be finishing it for july, regardless of the loading bar. Nevertheless, I think it is a signal that he is writing, and that is always good.
Do you (collective you, not only g33k) know if Jim is writing something else, like a short story, right now?
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... Do you (collective you, not only g33k) know if Jim is writing something else, like a short story, right now?
I don't know of any; but I don't know he's not, either.
I believe he has been relatively busy this past Spring, doing conventions & similar events.
I don't feel an urgent need to figure out why he's writing apparently-slowly... though it'd be very nice to be reassured that this slowdown is transient (ideally, that it's over and his pace is picking up again)! It's nice to see at least some progress, though... 58% today!
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Agree, but at least the loading bar is moving again. I am almost sure Jim won't be finishing it for july, regardless of the loading bar. Nevertheless, I think it is a signal that he is writing, and that is always good.
Do you (collective you, not only g33k) know if Jim is writing something else, like a short story, right now?
I’m not aware that Jim is writing anything else. Someone who has been at a con or other personal appearance might have heard different. I think the fact that the upcoming works bar is moving again I doubt there is anything else at the moment. I haven’t expected Jim to finish Twelve Months before the end of Summer or sometime in the Fall. My guess is we won’t get Twelve Months until next Summer.
I wonder if Jim will write another novella before Twelve Months is released because he has said that he wants continue to do what he did with the last Cinder Spires book. It worked in that case. The story; Warrior Born, was a tightly focused story and was a nice introduction to The Olympian Affair but it didn’t make the mistake of giving too much away about the story in the novel.
The Law, the last novella Jim wrote in the Dresdenverse, already takes place after Peace Talks, so I don’t know if Jim will feel the need to write another novella that takes place before Twelve Months.
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It could be something quite simple.
Twelve Months is an unplanned book. It's not in the decades long outline that Jim uses for the rest of the Dresden Files. He may just need more time to tidy up the flow of the story and to keep it reconciled with continuity.
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It could be something quite simple.
Twelve Months is an unplanned book. It's not in the decades long outline that Jim uses for the rest of the Dresden Files. He may just need more time to tidy up the flow of the story and to keep it reconciled with continuity.
This.
I can totally imagine that this book would be difficult to write, both because of what you said and also because it is emotionally straining for Jim himself. This book is supposed to deal with trauma.
I am no author myself but I can imagine, when you write about someone else's trauma you force yourself to deal with your own. Sure it can be therapeutic, but also exhausting in the process.
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Thanks Kurtin. I agree Warriorborn worked well.
Vincentric, why do you say 12 months has not been planned?
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Thanks Kurtin. I agree Warriorborn worked well.
Vincentric, why do you say 12 months has not been planned?
Because he planned to write Mirror Mirror but noticed there should be a book in between where Harry deals with his trauma.
All the other books have been planned or rather outlined before Storm Front was published. Twelve Months is a necessary addition.
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Because he planned to write Mirror Mirror but noticed there should be a book in between where Harry deals with his trauma.
All the other books have been planned or rather outlined before Storm Front was published. Twelve Months is a necessary addition.
This isnt the first time its deviated though from that outline, right? IIRC Changes was supposed to be 10, or was that some Mandela effect memory I am having?
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This isnt the first time its deviated though from that outline, right? IIRC Changes was supposed to be 10, or was that some Mandela effect memory I am having?
Not sure about Changes, but I think he switched Death Masks and Blood Rites. Or was it Blood Rites and Dead Beat? Or even Death Masks and Dead Beat?
But this is different, those were just changes in already existing plans. Not something completely new like Twelve Months.
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Mm, I did not know about that. That is weird, considering all the things that should be happening in 12M.
Was he planning to have the wedding right at the beginning of MM? Or the wedding itself is a new idea? What about Justine pregnancy? So many questions...
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Not sure about Changes, but I think he switched Death Masks and Blood Rites. Or was it Blood Rites and Dead Beat? Or even Death Masks and Dead Beat?
But this is different, those were just changes in already existing plans. Not something completely new like Twelve Months.
I think it was Dead Beat and Proven Guilty.
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My very earliest memory was 20-21 case files plus BAT which makes 23-24 books. Since he's added Twelve Months, he plans to make it 25 books. Assuming my memory is right, he is doing it because he thinks he needs to work Harry through a lot of stuff and because he wants to step up his writing. I think he wants to stretch his legs and tell either a anthology that happens to all have Harry as POV (maybe Lara or Molly but mostly Harry) or a very introspective, moody story with comparatively little action. I'm excited for this if he does it. I love it when author stretch out because, even if the experimental stuff isn't as good, it usually improves the regular stuff.
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Do not forget he split PT. BG was not in the plan as an independent book.
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I think it was Dead Beat and Proven Guilty.
That's it! Molly and Sue. I cannot imagine how the story would have been, hadn't they've been switched. How would Molly as an apprentice have fit in Dead Beat?
And there wouldn't have been that much time passing since Harry took up the coin and stopping to see Michael, thus not being around the Carpenters to notice Molly developing her magic. Maybe that's why he switched them. Molly's situation was the indirect result of Harry's absence in her life.
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. Maybe that's why he switched them. Molly's situation was the indirect result of Harry's absence in her life.
I know Mab likes to lay that as a guilt trip on Harry, and he is willing to let himself be guilted. However I think Molly's situation had more to do with Charity willingly blinding herself to her daughter's awakening talent. Further complicated by her believing that if she just kept Molly away from Harry her talent would just fade away and not become an issue. I think if she and Michael had sat down with Harry and tell him what they observed when Molly was maybe twelve or thirteen, even if Harry didn't feel he was qualified to be her master, he may have been able to suggest someone who could.
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I know Mab likes to lay that as a guilt trip on Harry, and he is willing to let himself be guilted. However I think Molly's situation had more to do with Charity willingly blinding herself to her daughter's awakening talent ...
I'm pretty sure Mab tasked Lea (whose schtick is abusively "inspiring" the talented) with making sure Molly went down the Left-Hand path.
We can be absolutely certain that Mab knew of Michael & Harry's close friendship, and would therefore educate herself about Michael's family; realized one or more of the early-born Carpenter kids would have a decent shot at being gifted. Mab may have had ways to make that more-likely, or even certain.
Whatever: she wanted levers upon Harry, and she got them. Levers of obligation, of guilt, of covert desire (and thus more guilt).
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I'm pretty sure Mab tasked Lea (whose schtick is abusively "inspiring" the talented) with making sure Molly went down the Left-Hand path.
We can be absolutely certain that Mab knew of Michael & Harry's close friendship, and would therefore educate herself about Michael's family; realized one or more of the early-born Carpenter kids would have a decent shot at being gifted. Mab may have had ways to make that more-likely, or even certain.
Whatever: she wanted levers upon Harry, and she got them. Levers of obligation, of guilt, of covert desire (and thus more guilt).
I am not saying that any or all of what you are saying isn't true. Actually I think a lot of it is very true, however I still think a lot, I mean A LOT, of this could have been avoided if Charity faced up to what she was, and that that power could be passed on. She chose to ignore it when it awakened in her daughter, kept Molly from someone who'd recognize it, nor did she talk to Harry about it or her own past, thinking it would just go away like hers did.. While its true that Charity's power faded over time from lack of use, she ignored the facts that almost sent her down the warlock path until Michael saved her from that dragon.. When the power awakened, Charity had to experiment with it, like most kids would. With no master wizard guidance, like most unguided kids, she started down the slippery slope to warlockhood, only luck or Providence saved her.. Her unwillingness to admit that to herself nearly cost her daughter her head.
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... however I still think a lot, I mean A LOT, of this could have been avoided if Charity faced up to what she was, and that that power could be passed on ...
Oh, absolutely!
But, y'know... all part of being human. We all have weaknesses, blind spots; truths we cannot face.
And Mab retains j-u-s-t enough humanity to recognize (at least most of) those, and know how best to exploit them.
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I think Molly was doing everything she could to hide her talent from Charity. Seeing as she described to Harry (in Proven Guilty) that she pulled up a vail on her own without previous instruction must have made it much easier to keep her talent hidden.
Minor difference of opinion here, but I don’t think it was Charity not seeing the signs that her daughter was developing magical talent as much as it was Charity not wanting to believe that her daughter would develop the talent combined with Molly keeping the secret to herself.
That is until Molly started asking other people; anyone except her parents of course, questions about magic. Which reminds me, I wonder how much longer Jim will keep Sandra Marling in hiding. The person who suggested using fear to keep a drug addict away from drugs hasn’t been seen since Proven Guilty. She’s got to comeback sometime. Unless we find out she was a disposable vessel or pawn of a supernatural being. Unfortunately, learning that would require that at some point in the future a bad guy or gal will ignore the supervillain handbook and go into monologue mode and reveal to Harry how they fooled him and Molly in the past.
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And progress is up to 60%.
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:)
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And progress is up to 60%.
You beat me. This feels much closer to 100% than before, lol.
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Minor difference of opinion here, but I don’t think it was Charity not seeing the signs that her daughter was developing magical talent as much as it was Charity not wanting to believe that her daughter would develop the talent combined with Molly keeping the secret to herself.
Yes, but also not leveling with Harry up front from the beginning of her husband's friendship with him, of her own background. Instead she treated Harry as if he were a corrupting influence on her children. I think it was out of ignorance, fear, and misplaced thinking that magical talent is somehow evil in of itself that guided her. As forbidden fruit, Harry's talent and exploits became even more attractive to Molly, for many of the wrong reasons..
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You beat me. This feels much closer to 100% than before, lol.
Specifically, it feels 10% closer.
/snark (*)
(*) -- ahhh, who th'hell am I kidding? You'll stop my snark when you pull the keyboard from my cold, dead fingers...
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(*) -- ahhh, who th'hell am I kidding? You'll stop my snark when you pull the keyboard from my cold, dead fingers...
Gnarly old fingers clutching the ancient keyboard, refusing to let go. With one last effort the trembling index finger hits "post".
One last snark leaves the cozy run down home to find its place in the void of the world wide web.
One last breath escapes, almost like a content sigh.
Gone is the snark.
Gone are the typing noises.
No more.
Nothing left.
Silence.
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Yes, but also not leveling with Harry up front from the beginning of her husband's friendship with him, of her own background. Instead she treated Harry as if he were a corrupting influence on her children. I think it was out of ignorance, fear, and misplaced thinking that magical talent is somehow evil in of itself that guided her. As forbidden fruit, Harry's talent and exploits became even more attractive to Molly, for many of the wrong reasons..
I think you're more or less correct, but you seem to be judging Charity's all-too-human failings quite harshly.
"Thou shalt not suffer a witch to live."
As Harry notes, modern scholarship puts gives us a *MUCH* more nuanced understanding of this verse.
But from what we understand of Charity's upbringing... that's probably how she felt about the matter.
Her background with magic was something she was ashamed of. She never really took any time to really think about it, come to a deeper understanding. She felt a reflexive dread, and shied away from addressing the issue, doing the emotional work that her own background would have required, if she were to address the issue rationally.
And, just as a practical matter: as Charity noted, most of Michael's serious injuries came from the few occasions he worked with Harry. How could she see Harry (and "wizardly" pursuits) in anything other than a horrible light?
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I think Molly was doing everything she could to hide her talent from Charity. Seeing as she described to Harry (in Proven Guilty) that she pulled up a vail on her own without previous instruction must have made it much easier to keep her talent hidden.
Minor difference of opinion here, but I don’t think it was Charity not seeing the signs that her daughter was developing magical talent as much as it was Charity not wanting to believe that her daughter would develop the talent combined with Molly keeping the secret to herself ...
Speaking as a parent: one becomes very adept at spotting your kids' BS.
Not perfect -- never 100% perfect -- but IME kids fool their parents less than they think they do.
I think it was both, and in roughly equal measure: Molly working really hard to hide it, and Charity not wanting to face it. Molly provided just enough "plausible deniability" that Charity could convince herself "nothing magical" was happening... despite the fact that Charity herself had a background of being a tween/teen becoming magical under parental disapproval, i.e. personal experience of exactly what Molly was going through.
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I think you're more or less correct, but you seem to be judging Charity's all-too-human failings quite harshly.]
No, not judging them, actually also as a parent understanding them.. You can state facts without judging them, Charity had a choice and Molly has to live with the consequences of that choice.. If she had chosen to be more open with her past to Harry and Molly, it may not have changed anything.. Molly still had to make her own choices.. That's the hell of all of this. It's like the old debate about sex education in schools, there are those who think if the kids learn about their bodies and sex, they will go out, have it, and any kind is bad... And those who think if they are educated about it, they still might have sex, but be responsible.. Or not.. Truth, teenagers and preteens have changing bodies that harbor awakening sexual hormones and impulses, no matter if they are educated before hand or not.. Preventing that education isn't going to stop those hormones, and educating them isn't going insure they will make wise choices about them.
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I think you're more or less correct, but you seem to be judging Charity's all-too-human failings quite harshly.
"Thou shalt not suffer a witch to live."
As Harry notes, modern scholarship puts gives us a *MUCH* more nuanced understanding of this verse.
But from what we understand of Charity's upbringing... that's probably how she felt about the matter.
Her background with magic was something she was ashamed of. She never really took any time to really think about it, come to a deeper understanding. She felt a reflexive dread, and shied away from addressing the issue, doing the emotional work that her own background would have required, if she were to address the issue rationally.
The overall Scriptural view of magic is still negative, including the New Testament.
Charity is not just ashamed of magic, she's afraid of it And with very good reason. She nearly came to disaster because of her own fairly minor Talent, and only Michael prevented it. Or to put it another way, Charity was rescued by Divine intervention.
Magical talent is dangerous in the DV. It can be useful, but it also makes you a target, in several different ways. Magic users are more tasty and tempting to White Vampires. They are useful pawns and tools for bad actors like Victor Sells (or Charity guru). Their interests take them to the very places where monsters are likely to show up.
(You're more likely to run into a White Vampire by chance at Mac's than you are at the local McDonald's. You've got a higher chance of meeting up with a bad-intentioned player at Bock's than at Barnes and Noble. Etc.)
Plus, of course, the risk that one could inadvertently violate one of the Seven Laws and then the relative good guys will hunt you down and behead you.
I realized a long time ago that for a person possessed of a fairly minor Talent in the DV, Charity is basically right. Your best bet is to turn away from it. It'll almost surely bring you more Trouble than benefit to pursue it.
If you have a somewhat stronger Talent, and if you have a trustworthy mentor or teacher, the equation changes. The benefits might outweigh the costs then. But finding such a mentor is no easy thing, and there are many, many ways for it to Go Wrong.
This is an example I've cited before, but it's relevant: imagine you're a modest-or-stronger Talent trying to figure out how to use your powers. You discover two textbooks in the magic shops: Elementary Magic by E. McCoy, and Basic Magic by E. Relmmek.
Both purport to be introductory textbooks for magical theory and practice. Both are full of useful information, exercises, and examples. Both have the necessary information to let you increase your skills and learn to use your Talent.
How are you supposed to know that you can trust McCoy, but that you should burn the Relmmek textbook in the hottest fire available, while handling it with gloves?
Charity's attitude is 95% reasonable and well-founded. Molly fell through the cracks of the other 5%, but that's not to say that Charity is wrong, because she's mostly right for most people most of the time.
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I agree, all what you say is true. It is perfectly reasonable, but Mira is also right in that it has consequences in Molly's life.
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Charity's attitude is 95% reasonable and well-founded. Molly fell through the cracks of the other 5%, but that's not to say that Charity is wrong, because she's mostly right for most people most of the time.
In her daughter's case she made a serious mistake, and sadly as often happens her intentions were good. Out of her own fear and ignorance, she thought she was protecting her child from what was nearly her own fate. I say ignorance because when the dragon had gotten a hold of her, she had magical talent, but no understanding of it.
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Last update from Jim, from an interview he did 11 days ago with the Beyond the Cape podcast, he hopes to be done with Twelve Months by the time DragonCon comes around, to announce there the book is finished. We'll see, I guess. ^^
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Last update from Jim, from an interview he did 11 days ago with the Beyond the Cape podcast, he hopes to be done with Twelve Months by the time DragonCon comes around, to announce there the book is finished. We'll see, I guess. ^^
When is that?
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When is that?
Aug. 29 – Sep. 2, 2024 in Atlanta, GA
Ambitious, considering the progress bar is only at 64%. But he has been known to miscalculate estimates before, so I take that with a big grain of salt.
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Perhaps the person writing the updates in the site is doing their own estimation based on what Jim tells them, and it is probably delayed with respect to the truth. In any case, perhaps Jim intends to finish a draft for the Dragon Con and then do an exhaustive revision, including perhaps things that were not truly finished before. Anyways, those are good news, mainly because they showed that Jim is focused in his writing.
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I have learned over the years no to hold my breath on such matters... ::) On the other hand, we have been a most patient set of fans, happy for any crumb that is thrown our way... Maybe just maybe he appreciates that, thus not making us wait for years for the next book in the series..
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I have learned over the years no to hold my breath on such matters... ::) On the other hand, we have been a most patient set of fans, happy for any crumb that is thrown our way... Maybe just maybe he appreciates that, thus not making us wait for years for the next book in the series..
I think the GRRM fans have us beat in terms of patience. ^^
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I think the GRRM fans have us beat in terms of patience. ^^
That's true.
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I think the GRRM fans have us beat in terms of patience. ^^
I think they do, yes.
<looks longingly at Sanderson's output>
sigh
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Aug. 29 – Sep. 2, 2024 in Atlanta, GA
Ambitious, considering the progress bar is only at 64%. But he has been known to miscalculate estimates before, so I take that with a big grain of salt.
Indeed.
Like when he estimated a July1 completion in early June, with the book-o-meter stuck at 50% ...
:o
Honestly, I'm beginning to think he just rolls d12 for months-away, and adds d100/3 days past the 1st of the month.
(is a RPG'ing reference, for those of you unfamiliar -- but we know Jim is a RPG-geek (among his other geekeries), so it's not actually that improbable...)
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LOL, It would be a good way to use d12, which is usually quite underused.
Harry himself plays RPG with his friends. I like that so much.
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64% I'm hoping inertia is in our favor now!
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66% now
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64% I'm hoping inertia is in our favor now!
66% now
Woot! 2% per day would see completion in just 17 more days!!!
(this is not my prediction, however)
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Mm, it was in 64 for several days though.
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Mm, it was in 64 for several days though.
Awwww, dang it!
Why u gotta harsh my vibe?
I mean... besides being right?
(66% late on the 13th, Jim Standard Time)
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Sorry..
But 66 is good :)
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Seventeen, almost 18 books in 25 years? Seems fast to me, and that's not counting 2 other series, how many shorts, an a con schedule every year. The dude is working.
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68% now. Seven days since the last progress.
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:) The progress is quite constant.
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Well, they say the last 32% are the hardest.. ::)
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Well, they say the last 32% are the hardest.. ::)
Huh... y'know, I've never actually heard them say that.
;)
(whatever, though: we're seeing nice, more-or-less steady progress! so YAY! for that)
(also, reviewing the thread, I observe that it's possible I might be a bit too OCDish -- even obsessive -- about the Dresden Files... It's also possible I'm not alone in that)
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(also, reviewing the thread, I observe that it's possible I might be a bit too OCDish -- even obsessive -- about the Dresden Files... It's also possible I'm not alone in that)
I have not the faintest idea about what are you saying :-[
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Huh... y'know, I've never actually heard them say that.
Who are they anyway?
(also, reviewing the thread, I observe that it's possible I might be a bit too OCDish -- even obsessive -- about the Dresden Files... It's also possible I'm not alone in that)
No no, this can't be. (*****checking the books for references once again in the middle of the night after looking for any updates on several DF relevant sites*****)
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Huh... y'know, I've never actually heard them say that.
;)
(whatever, though: we're seeing nice, more-or-less steady progress! so YAY! for that)
(also, reviewing the thread, I observe that it's possible I might be a bit too OCDish -- even obsessive -- about the Dresden Files... It's also possible I'm not alone in that)
Then you've never tried to get that winning eleventh point in a hard fought pickle ball game... ;)
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I've never been near a pickle game myself :D
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I've never been near a pickle game myself :D
Oh you got to check it out on Youtube! ;D
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Oh you got to check it out on Youtube! ;D
Probably, yes :)
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It updated to 70%.
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It updated to 70%.
:D
(in lieu of having a celebratory "React" available)
It's kind of irrational, I know, but "70%" just feels much closer to done than "68%" feels... waaaay more emotional weight than that 2% change !
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I know, right? :)
I remember one forumite who did the happy butt dance when celebrating. It was with signs like << but I do not remember it specifically.
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Well, if one is patient enough and waits long enough, a dripping facet will eventually fill a glass... So before we were looking at a glass half full or half empty, now it's almost three quarters full! ;)
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The % complete is just a number, without any basis to judge how accurate it is. And even if the % is dead-on accurate, it doesn't mean a thing to how soon the next book will be done - beyond maybe an acknowledgement that with every day publication is closer (assuming, of course, it eventually gets published). In fact, the % is a non sequitur as answer to the Q that JB posed - "WHEN’S THE NEXT BOOK?!!" Answer: 70%.
No one asked for this advice, but I'd recommend that the % complete be ignored. The next book will be published when it's published, you have no ability to affect that, you can't speed up that date or push it back, no matter how loyal or fanatical a fan you may be. Even JB hasn't been an accurate predictor of how quickly he'll write or when he'll be done with the next book (or even how many books there will be). Just accept that the wait will last as long as it lasts, and relax.
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...
No one asked for this advice, but I'd recommend that the % complete be ignored. The next book will be published when it's published, you have no ability to affect that, you can't speed up that date or push it back, no matter how loyal or fanatical a fan you may be. Even JB hasn't been an accurate predictor of how quickly he'll write or when he'll be done with the next book (or even how many books there will be). Just accept that the wait will last as long as it lasts, and relax.
For me, every update means something meta:
in Jim's own opinion, he's just completed a notable bit, and has surfaced to take a breather. It isn't necessarily an accurate %age (particularly as regards timing, mostly because he may hit a stumping writers-block issue on zero notice, but also because I think he revises based on beta-reader feedback before the editor/publisher gets it)... but I do think Jim tries to keep it close to how complete it "feels" to him.
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The % complete is just a number, without any basis to judge how accurate it is. And even if the % is dead-on accurate, it doesn't mean a thing to how soon the next book will be done - beyond maybe an acknowledgement that with every day publication is closer (assuming, of course, it eventually gets published). In fact, the % is a non sequitur as answer to the Q that JB posed - "WHEN’S THE NEXT BOOK?!!" Answer: 70%.
No one asked for this advice, but I'd recommend that the % complete be ignored. The next book will be published when it's published, you have no ability to affect that, you can't speed up that date or push it back, no matter how loyal or fanatical a fan you may be. Even JB hasn't been an accurate predictor of how quickly he'll write or when he'll be done with the next book (or even how many books there will be). Just accept that the wait will last as long as it lasts, and relax.
Back from when Jim used to post this kind of % completion estimate on Twitter; so over ten years ago, the percentage completed that was posted back then was based on the expected word count that Jim had predicted he would need to write that novel. So, when Jim was finished his estimate might have been off by five, ten, fifteen thousand words or more.
A lot depends on how complicated the story is getting. For example, I remember seeing Jim at a book signing many years ago where he said Ghost Story was a book that went far above his expected word count. I remember that Ghost Story; more specifically, the main story of Harry finding out who killed him, took a long time to reach it's conclusion. I can see why Jim greatly underestimated his word count for that novel.
My guess, and it's just a guess, is that Jim has more than his expected word count to go on in predicting his completion rate this time around. After all, the story is called Twelve Months for a reason. Jim knows how far he is into the story chronologically and even if he hasn't written it yet, he knows at what time in the story big events or big boss battles will occur. So my guess is the 70% completion estimate for Twelve Months isn't too far off the mark.
For some time I've guessed has been that Jim will not finish Twelve Months until sometime in the fall. I was hoping he would have it done by the time Dragon Con rolled around but I think sometime in early October is more likely. That means we could get the book by mid to late Spring next year or Early Summer. If I'm wrong and Jim finishes earlier than I expect, I will be very happy to have been wrong.
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This maybe a controversial opinion but I'm somewhat hopeful that Jim is taking his time on this. I've seen a lot of series go from beloved to hated or ignored based on the last chunk including GoT and Star War sequel trilogy. My hope is that Jim is taking his time to ensure that Harry's relationships are written well. Since this is first book after Murph's death, first one where Harry's with Lara, first one with Harry out of the White Council, and first one with Harry being personally antagonistic with Ebenezer and Carlos, it could make or break several key components of the rest of the series.
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This maybe a controversial opinion but I'm somewhat hopeful that Jim is taking his time on this. I've seen a lot of series go from beloved to hated or ignored based on the last chunk including GoT and Star War sequel trilogy. My hope is that Jim is taking his time to ensure that Harry's relationships are written well. Since this is first book after Murph's death, first one where Harry's with Lara, first one with Harry out of the White Council, and first one with Harry being personally antagonistic with Ebenezer and Carlos, it could make or break several key components of the rest of the series.
You are correct. And I believe he is doing that. Taking his time. This is a book that has not been planned. A book to deal with trauma. And difficult personal and political times.
Iirc, the person who managed Jim's website after Priscelli said, that the progress bar was Jim's idea to motivate himself. And I think it is a wonderful idea.
Of course, it's not accurate, just an estimate, but I am always happy to see it moved. This means one step further, a little progress. This motivates me, too.
It is completely different from the wait between Skin Game and Peace Talks, when you heard and read nothing.
At first I didn't know of the paranet, his website or the reddit sub, but I started to look for them, because I thought, omg what if he died? Don't laugh, this is not so far fetched. I wanted to know if I should leave the DF behind me or if there was still hope they would be continued eventually.
But then I found the paranet and all the people here, some even more crazy than I am, lol.
I also want this book to be good.
Taking longer to write doesn't necessarily mean, it will be a better book, and also writing faster doesn't necessarily mean it will be worse.
When it is done, it is done. But I am happy for every tiny breadcrumb I find, even it is only 2% on a progress bar.
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... It is completely different from the wait between Skin Game and Peace Talks, when you heard and read nothing ...
Not quite nothing. The info was out there, but it was all non-Dresden personal Jim-info, and so didn't permeate the fandom quickly, nor completely, and was poorly known.
Housing transition that collapsed (resulting in extensive couch-surfing and borrowing friends' spare-rooms (q.v. Woolfe's "room of one's own" -- Jim had none), death of a beloved dog, death of a marriage... Stuff you'd expect to wreak havoc upon a creative project like writing.
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This maybe a controversial opinion but I'm somewhat hopeful that Jim is taking his time on this. I've seen a lot of series go from beloved to hated or ignored based on the last chunk including GoT and Star War sequel trilogy. My hope is that Jim is taking his time to ensure that Harry's relationships are written well. Since this is first book after Murph's death, first one where Harry's with Lara, first one with Harry out of the White Council, and first one with Harry being personally antagonistic with Ebenezer and Carlos, it could make or break several key components of the rest of the series.
This is the general opinion of most of the fandom. I do not remember if this was when we were waiting for SG or for PT, but we here had decided we do not want a half-assed book that comes soon. I think that was inspired for some WOJ but we began chanting the mantra "Full-assed for the win!" (FTW). So many of us had our Forum signatures saying FTW as a show of support to Jim taking his time.
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72% now. That was fast. ;D
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Oops. 74%
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Oops. 74%
:o ;D
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Awesome!
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76%
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78% now. The progress is progressing.
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78% now. The progress is progressing.
:D
We wants it, Preciousssss, yessss...
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Apparently in DragonCon there is a WoJ that the book will be ready in around a month :)
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Apparently in DragonCon there is a WoJ that the book will be ready in around a month :)
Found this on Reddit:
New WOJ from DragonCon: 12 Months will be finished in 3-4 weeks
He said finished finished as in edited and everything. Looks like it’s heading to the printers soon!
Happy happy joy joy
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Assuming WOJ being reported from DragonCon is accurate, we now have a stick in the ground by which to judge Butcher's estimates. I confess I have a hard time believing that both the current 78% is accurate, and his statement that the remaining 22% will be finished by no later than September 30, 2024 will also turn out to be accurate (though I hope both are).
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... we now have a stick in the ground by which to judge Butcher's estimates ...
We do; but I'm dubious about using this single stick and trying to generalize...
OTOH, this thread actually has several sticks planted:
my "50%" OP is useless, as it was a "been 50% a long time, I think" gripe, so AFAIK there's no document as to when Jim bumped it up to 50%.
HOWEVER:
@Dina reports 54% on 14 June
my own 58% on 23 June
@vincentric posted 60% on 28 June
(etc. I'm not actually going to try to plot the dates vs the %complete; I will look with mild interest upon the efforts of anyone who does want to do an analysis ... 8) ... )
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@ g33k
There is someone who does that on reddit:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1V7giXTFs_viWik1hOOTW0lfMEe4RB4jcKRtRyGDgioU/htmlview
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@ g33k
There is someone who does that on reddit:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1V7giXTFs_viWik1hOOTW0lfMEe4RB4jcKRtRyGDgioU/htmlview
Huh.
TYVM!
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There was an interview in June, "Beyond the Cape" podcast, Jim said then that he expected to be done and announce it during Dragoncon. Apparently, not quite...
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Well, one month is close enough, but we will need to see if it is right.
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*bump* of the OP/topic.
78% still (first reported over a month ago).
I'm gonna predict Jim will miss his (honestly over-)ambitious DragonCon estimate.
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We will see. When I do an update of windows it sometimes has hiccups. A while stuck in a value and then a sudden sprint to the goal. Perhaps this is the same :)
Anyways, I admit I won't be surprised if it takes some more time, but I can feel it, we are close.
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'He's got a long way to go, and a short time to get there.' - Jerry Reed, almost
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Jim mentioned recently he had a slip disk which was why the book stalled. Hoping it picks up now?
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Jim mentioned recently he had a slip disk which was why the book stalled. Hoping it picks up now?
That is a real sucky injury, though at least it wasn't something life threatening. I've had it happen to me. As long as you don't require surgery it can be dealt with, with good long-term recovery possible, even though potential for further injury always remains.
Until the injury is dealt with, the pain can be very distracting and pain killers can dull any writer's ability to get work done. I required cortisone injections and I lost considerable weight after that to reduce the chance of reinjuring myself. My doctor tried other therapies before the cortisone injections, so I can understand how this situation has cost Jim a fair amount of work time.
In my case, this injury occurred over fifteen years ago and I haven't had any pain since then.
Good luck Jim!
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That is a real sucky injury, though at least it wasn't something life threatening. I've had it happen to me. As long as you don't require surgery it can be dealt with, with good long-term recovery possible, even though potential for further injury always remains.
Until the injury is dealt with, the pain can be very distracting and pain killers can dull any writer's ability to get work done. I required cortisone injections and I lost considerable weight after that to reduce the chance of reinjuring myself. My doctor tried other therapies before the cortisone injections, so I can understand how this situation has cost Jim a fair amount of work time.
In my case, this injury occurred over fifteen years ago and I haven't had any pain since then.
Good luck Jim!
I echo that, having suffered from it as well, lots of pain and loss of sleep from the pain, hope Jim gets well soon.
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I echo that, having suffered from it as well, lots of pain and loss of sleep from the pain, hope Jim gets well soon.
I forgot about the loss of sleep part. That was maddening and even if the pain diminished while I was awake, not sleeping killed my ability to concentrate while I was awake. The right painkillers helped me sleep, but they aren't a solution and they have their drawbacks when you are awake. Plus, they are potentially addictive so it isn't something you want to rely on for any great length of time.
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Jim mentioned recently he had a slip disk which was why the book stalled. Hoping it picks up now?
Oh, I did not know that. I hope he gets better soon!
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I forgot about the loss of sleep part. That was maddening and even if the pain diminished while I was awake, not sleeping killed my ability to concentrate while I was awake. The right painkillers helped me sleep, but they aren't a solution and they have their drawbacks when you are awake. Plus, they are potentially addictive so it isn't something you want to rely on for any great length of time.
Plus pain killers don't help to focus the brain much.. :(
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It moved.
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:D :D :D :D :D
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I noticed as well. :) It's great for the book, but having once suffered a similar injury, I hope Jim is now fully pain free and can continue to remain that way.
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According to the website, Jim will be on a convention this weekend. It has been announced for weeks and it has not changed, so I hope that means he is feeling well enough.
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It moved.
Yes, from 78% to 80%.
Where (3 weeks later) it still sits.
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Went to 82% today. So, it looks like Jim is back in the saddle. Hopefully we'll see some steady progress over the next week.
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Went to 82% today. So, it looks like Jim is back in the saddle. Hopefully we'll see some steady progress over the next week.
Dunno, every week seems kind of... over-frequent?
Before December, is my hope.
But, of course, we here in the USA have our National Turkey Sacrifice happening shortly, and I've no idea what Jim might be doing in that regard; it's entirely-possible that he's got travel&party&c plans that preclude "steady progress."
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84% today. That is what I was looking for. Sure, Thanksgiving (in the U.S. as opposed to Canada) is next Thursday, but Jim could finish or be in the high 90’s before then, if he has to travel for the Holiday.
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Progress is progress! :)
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86% this morning.
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84% today...
86% this morning.
woot!
Go Jim Go!!!
(write Jim write!!!)
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Yes! :)
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86%, woohoo
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89% now! ;D
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Excellent!
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So... What does 100% mean? There's still a lot of work to do after the manuscript is final , after all
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Traditionally, 100% means that Jim announces "the end". Which is actually the beginning of the publishing time (i mean, it is when it is no longer Jim's responsibility but the publisher's).
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Traditionally, 100% means that Jim announces "the end". Which is actually the beginning of the publishing time (i mean, it is when it is no longer Jim's responsibility but the publisher's).
It's always possible the editor will redline some fixes they want Jim to do; his 100% may not be his final contact with the manuscript...
But such fixes (if any) are likely to be minimal, I expect: I understand Jim has a robust "beta reader" group that catches most of this kind of stuff.
Also:89% now! ;D
WOOT!
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The last time I remember that Jim posted percentages for a book’s completion was for Ghost Story. He might have also done so for Cold Days, but I am less certain about that.
In any case, Jim did this on Twitter and in one post he said that the percentage of completion was based on the expected word count Jim had calculated before he started writing. So in a simple example, if Jim calculated; or guesstimated based on past experience, that a particular novel would take 100,000 words to complete, when he reached 90,000 words, he would post that he was 90% completed.
However, there was a problem with Ghost Story. Jim needed an extra ten or fifteen thousand words to wrap up that story in the way that he wanted. So when Jim got to 100%, he wasn’t done. It only took a few more days for Jim to complete, but it was annoying having to wait, no longer having a clue how long it would be. I don’t think Jim ever posted anything that told us how far past 100% of his expected word count he went. I just recall a post that was so short and to the point about Jim sending the manuscript to his publisher that I had to read it twice to be certain.
As of today, Jim has been stuck on 89% for the past two weeks, which does surprise me a bit. I thought he would really be pushing hard to finish before year’s end. Of course, I have no idea what is going on in Jim’s life that could have forced him to put the brakes on. For example, there is a nasty flu going around in North America at the present. In fact, I have heard there are two separate strains of flu currently making the rounds. This might be true as I was vaccinated near the end of November and still got the flue a week later.
Hopefully, whatever slowed Jim down will be resolved and hopefully he has a much better estimate of his percentage of completion than he did with Ghost Story.
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The last time I remember that Jim posted percentages for a book’s completion was for Ghost Story. He might have also done so for Cold Days, but I am less certain about that.
In any case, Jim did this on Twitter and in one post he said that the percentage of completion was based on the expected word count Jim had calculated before he started writing. So in a simple example, if Jim calculated; or guesstimated based on past experience, that a particular novel would take 100,000 words to complete, when he reached 90,000 words, he would post that he was 90% completed.
However, there was a problem with Ghost Story. Jim needed an extra ten or fifteen thousand words to wrap up that story in the way that he wanted. So when Jim got to 100%, he wasn’t done. It only took a few more days for Jim to complete, but it was annoying having to wait, no longer having a clue how long it would be. I don’t think Jim ever posted anything that told us how far past 100% of his expected word count he went. I just recall a post that was so short and to the point about Jim sending the manuscript to his publisher that I had to read it twice to be certain.
As of today, Jim has been stuck on 89% for the past two weeks, which does surprise me a bit. I thought he would really be pushing hard to finish before year’s end. Of course, I have no idea what is going on in Jim’s life that could have forced him to put the brakes on. For example, there is a nasty flu going around in North America at the present. In fact, I have heard there are two separate strains of flu currently making the rounds. This might be true as I was vaccinated near the end of November and still got the flue a week later.
Hopefully, whatever slowed Jim down will be resolved and hopefully he has a much better estimate of his percentage of completion than he did with Ghost Story.
Yup, it will be done when it is done.. And I believe anyway that our satisfaction will depend on Jim using as many or as few more words to complete it to his satisfaction.
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I have to say that I was hoping for a Christmas present via the % complete slider . . .
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I have to say that I was hoping for a Christmas present via the % complete slider . . .
I think Jim might just be taking Christmas off...
But of course, it's also the case that there's plenty of "Chrismas Day" left in the day, in Jim's TZ; so he could be planning an update for this afternoon or evening .
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89% now! ;D
le sigh
A full month on, still at 89%
:-\
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le sigh
A full month on, still at 89%
:-\
Give the guy a break, the holiday turn around has been very short and hectic this year!
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Unstuck. For a few percentage points, any way.
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Unstuck. For a few percentage points, any way.
92% today. *** does the dance of joy ***
Give the guy a break, the holiday turn around has been very short and hectic this year!
That's what I thought. Everything I planned to do had to be left for after the Holidays.
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Yay!! :)
Yes, I also thought there would not be news until after the Holidays.
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Yay!
I'm probably reading too much (or not enough) into things, but I hope that the pause right before the last 10% of the book means the climax had extra time to cook.
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I am hoping that the closer he is to being done with the transcript the faster he works on it
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Jim just posted on Twitter that it’s done. He’s gotta do some clean up and then send it off.
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Jim just posted on Twitter that it’s done. He’s gotta do some clean up and then send it off.
Just found a screenshot on Reddit.
Here's the link:
https://www.reddit.com/r/dresdenfiles/s/o3GKvIfRR5
***does the dance of joy***
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*Does the happy dance*
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Just saw it. Pretty cool!
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Hooray! :D
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Wait, how can he be done? We still have some questions we've been discussing ad nauseum. I mean we haven't talked about cowl identity 500 times yet. Just 478.
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that just means we are the ones behind scedual.....here let me help with the not so creative process....I wonder who cowl is.
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that just means we are the ones behind scedual.....here let me help with the not so creative process....I wonder who cowl is.
Only one of the many loose ends!
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We have the 100% bar.
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Labor Day, Halloween, Thanksgiving, or Christmas?
For release that is
:)
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Labor Day, Halloween, Thanksgiving, or Christmas?
Whatever, it is still almost a year away.
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Here the thing about guessing when it will be released. Jim pattern doesn’t fit most other authors. If his Beta readers have kept Jim real clued in to possible errors or inconsistencies, he is very good at pre-editing his own work. So for most other authors I would say we have a full year to wait from when he sends it in to the publisher. Jim’s books can; sometimes, be out in several months less time than that.
Let’s say in two to three weeks Jim finishes up the touch ups he will do before sending it in, my guess is we will get Twelve Months around Christmas, maybe even in time for Black Friday or Cyber Monday sales. Though nothing is guaranteed.
However, a long time ago; make that a long-long time ago, for one of the novels between Small Favor and Changes, Jim finished; sent it in, sometime in mid-December and that book hit the shelves around the first week of April, just under four months later. I don’t know how the publisher achieved such a fast turn around to get the book out so fast. Maybe it’s was during the Great Recession and Jim’s publisher had less material to work on, I don’t know. What I do know is I wouldn’t count on that kind of fast turn around today.
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We have the 100% bar.
;D
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Super excited for a new Dresden novel.
It would be nice to have an amazon placeholder for Twelve Months so it can be saved on TBR lists. Any idea how to request the publisher to create one?
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Super excited for a new Dresden novel.
It would be nice to have an amazon placeholder for Twelve Months so it can be saved on TBR lists. Any idea how to request the publisher to create one?
If I had to guess, I'd guess that Amazon does that based upon word from the boring bean-counters at the publishers, not the fickle & flighty remarks of creatives like authors (whose profession it is to invent falsity).
Fortunately for me, I don't have to guess!
Unfortunately for all y'all, I've done so anyhow ...
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We have the 100% bar.
;D
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Have there been any updates since the original?
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Jim Butcher
@longshotauthor
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Feb 19
Okay. Twelve Months is done and off to the editor.
More information as I receive it wrt publish dates.
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I asked the new GROK 3 a.i. and it estimated about 6-9 months after the finished manuscript based on all the info it looked up. Publisher history for other books....etc.. My guess is October 31st, Harry's birthday.
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I asked the new GROK 3 a.i. and it estimated about 6-9 months after the finished manuscript based on all the info it looked up. Publisher history for other books....etc.. My guess is October 31st, Harry's birthday.
This would be cool, but unfortunately October 31st is a Friday. New books are rarely published on Fridays. I'm not sure, if it is Tuesday or Thursday in the US.