Twelve Months stuck?

[Dina]

(also, reviewing the thread, I observe that it's possible I might be a bit too OCDish -- even obsessive -- about the Dresden Files... It's also possible I'm not alone in that)

I have not the faintest idea about what are you saying 

[Regenbogen]

Huh... y'know, I've never actually heard them say that.

Who are they anyway?

(also, reviewing the thread, I observe that it's possible I might be a bit too OCDish -- even obsessive -- about the Dresden Files... It's also possible I'm not alone in that)

No no, this can't be. (*****checking the books for references once again in the middle of the night after looking for any updates on several DF relevant sites*****)

[Mira]

Huh... y'know, I've never actually heard them say that.

 

(whatever, though:  we're seeing nice, more-or-less steady progress!  so YAY! for that)
 
(also, reviewing the thread, I observe that it's possible I might be a bit too OCDish -- even obsessive -- about the Dresden Files... It's also possible I'm not alone in that)

Then you've never tried to get that winning eleventh point in a hard fought pickle ball game...

[Dina]

I've never been near a pickle game myself 

[Mira]

I've never been near a pickle game myself 

Oh you got to check it out on Youtube!   

[Dina]

Oh you got to check it out on Youtube!   

Probably, yes 

[Regenbogen]

It updated to 70%.

[g33k]

It updated to 70%.

 
(in lieu of having a celebratory "React" available)

It's kind of irrational, I know, but "70%" just feels much closer to done than "68%" feels... waaaay more emotional weight than that 2% change !

[Dina]

I know, right? 
I remember one forumite who did the happy butt dance when celebrating. It was with signs like << but I do not remember it specifically.

[Mira]

Well, if one is patient enough and waits long enough, a dripping facet will eventually fill a glass... So before we were looking at a glass half full or half empty, now it's almost three quarters full!

[Lord Kinbote]

The % complete is just a number, without any basis to judge how accurate it is.  And even if the % is dead-on accurate, it doesn't mean a thing to how soon the next book will be done  - beyond maybe an acknowledgement that with every day publication is closer (assuming, of course, it eventually gets published).  In fact, the % is a non sequitur as answer to the Q that JB posed - "WHEN’S THE NEXT BOOK?!!"  Answer:  70%.

No one asked for this advice, but I'd recommend that the % complete be ignored.  The next book will be published when it's published, you have no ability to affect that, you can't speed up that date or push it back, no matter how loyal or fanatical a fan you may be.  Even JB hasn't been an accurate predictor of how quickly he'll write or when he'll be done with the next book (or even how many books there will be).  Just accept that the wait will last as long as it lasts, and relax.

[g33k]

...

No one asked for this advice, but I'd recommend that the % complete be ignored.  The next book will be published when it's published, you have no ability to affect that, you can't speed up that date or push it back, no matter how loyal or fanatical a fan you may be.  Even JB hasn't been an accurate predictor of how quickly he'll write or when he'll be done with the next book (or even how many books there will be).  Just accept that the wait will last as long as it lasts, and relax.

For me, every update means something meta:
in Jim's own opinion, he's just completed a notable bit, and has surfaced to take a breather.  It isn't necessarily an accurate %age (particularly as regards timing, mostly because he may hit a stumping writers-block issue on zero notice, but also because I think he revises based on beta-reader feedback before the editor/publisher gets it)... but I do think Jim tries to keep it close to how complete it "feels" to him.

[KurtinStGeorge]

The % complete is just a number, without any basis to judge how accurate it is.  And even if the % is dead-on accurate, it doesn't mean a thing to how soon the next book will be done  - beyond maybe an acknowledgement that with every day publication is closer (assuming, of course, it eventually gets published).  In fact, the % is a non sequitur as answer to the Q that JB posed - "WHEN’S THE NEXT BOOK?!!"  Answer:  70%.

No one asked for this advice, but I'd recommend that the % complete be ignored.  The next book will be published when it's published, you have no ability to affect that, you can't speed up that date or push it back, no matter how loyal or fanatical a fan you may be.  Even JB hasn't been an accurate predictor of how quickly he'll write or when he'll be done with the next book (or even how many books there will be).  Just accept that the wait will last as long as it lasts, and relax.

Back from when Jim used to post this kind of % completion estimate on Twitter; so over ten years ago, the percentage completed that was posted back then was based on the expected word count that Jim had predicted he would need to write that novel.  So, when Jim was finished his estimate might have been off by five, ten, fifteen thousand words or more.

A lot depends on how complicated the story is getting.  For example, I remember seeing Jim at a book signing many years ago where he said Ghost Story was a book that went far above his expected word count.  I remember that Ghost Story; more specifically, the main story of Harry finding out who killed him, took a long time to reach it's conclusion.  I can see why Jim greatly underestimated his word count for that novel. 

My guess, and it's just a guess, is that Jim has more than his expected word count to go on in predicting his completion rate this time around.  After all, the story is called Twelve Months for a reason.  Jim knows how far he is into the story chronologically and even if he hasn't written it yet, he knows at what time in the story big events or big boss battles will occur.  So my guess is the 70% completion estimate for Twelve Months isn't too far off the mark.

For some time I've guessed has been that Jim will not finish Twelve Months until sometime in the fall.  I was hoping he would have it done by the time Dragon Con rolled around but I think sometime in early October is more likely.  That means we could get the book by mid to late Spring next year or Early Summer.  If I'm wrong and Jim finishes earlier than I expect, I will be very happy to have been wrong.

[peterwiggin94]

This maybe a controversial opinion but I'm somewhat hopeful that Jim is taking his time on this. I've seen a lot of series go from beloved to hated or ignored based on the last chunk including GoT and Star War sequel trilogy. My hope is that Jim is taking his time to ensure that Harry's relationships are written well. Since this is first book after Murph's death, first one where Harry's with Lara, first one with Harry out of the White Council, and first one with Harry being personally antagonistic with Ebenezer and Carlos, it could make or break several key components of the rest of the series.

[Regenbogen]

This maybe a controversial opinion but I'm somewhat hopeful that Jim is taking his time on this. I've seen a lot of series go from beloved to hated or ignored based on the last chunk including GoT and Star War sequel trilogy. My hope is that Jim is taking his time to ensure that Harry's relationships are written well. Since this is first book after Murph's death, first one where Harry's with Lara, first one with Harry out of the White Council, and first one with Harry being personally antagonistic with Ebenezer and Carlos, it could make or break several key components of the rest of the series.

You are correct. And I believe he is doing that. Taking his time. This is a book that has not been planned. A book to deal with trauma. And difficult personal and political times.

Iirc, the person who managed Jim's website after Priscelli said, that the progress bar was Jim's idea to motivate himself. And I think it is a wonderful idea.
Of course, it's not accurate, just an estimate, but I am always happy to see it moved. This means one step further, a little progress. This motivates me, too.

It is completely different from the wait between Skin Game and Peace Talks, when you heard and read nothing.

At first I didn't know of the paranet, his website or the reddit sub, but I started to look for them, because I thought, omg what if he died? Don't laugh, this is not so far fetched. I wanted to know if I should leave the DF behind me or if there was still hope they would be continued eventually.

But then I found the paranet and all the people here, some even more crazy than I am, lol.

I also want this book to be good.

Taking longer to write doesn't necessarily mean, it will be a better book, and also writing faster doesn't necessarily mean it will be worse.

When it is done, it is done. But I am happy for every tiny breadcrumb I find, even it is only 2% on a progress bar.