Harry should have trusted Ramirez

[vincentric]

I don't believe that LaFortiere was the Warden at the time of his murder unless it was a secret from everyone on the Senior Council who knows what Demonreach is. Otherwise their response makes no sense.

Think about it. The keeper of the keys to the prison of the the collective monsters and horrors of the planet's history is murdered and no one is sent to check on the prison. If someone told me the keys to the Gates of Hell have been stolen, I'd want to watch the path to them, even if from a distance.

Harry may not have had the Council's full trust, but he is the warden they put in charge on North America despite there being three Senior Council members who reside there. In the two days  it took Morgan to reach him, you'd think that someone might have passed the word for him to be on the lookout for unusual activity near there with no need to mention the manhunt for Morgan. Then Morgan arrives and there are two days of TC and still no one goes the the island until Harry tells them to meet him there.

Even after arriving there, they are so concerned with Morgan's capture than no one, besides Rashiid, says anything about it even though Eb and Listens both show awareness of Harry's link to Demonreach? That shows either complete trust in Harry or a startling level of incompetence on the Council's part. Surely there should have been some questions asked or some pointers given. Perhaps a word to Harry about keeping a watch on the island might be advisable. Harry isn't completely resolved of this either. He made the pact and didn't do a thing to learn about it until he was forced to.

And then after Changes, after a second Warden over the island in murdered, no one thinks to say, "Hey, maybe the bad guys are plotting something to do with the prison."? They don't post a guard or have someone do periodic checks?

At some point, you have to realize that the secrecy you're protecting has become so paranoid that it's causing far more harm than good. The mushroom treatment given to even dedicated wardens causes more rebels in the long term out of ignorance and frustration than the protection it provides against possible traitors. Unless they're just that bad at evaluating the character of all their trainees. 

[Mira]

This makes lots of sense.

[Conspiracy Theorist]

You misconstrue, the punishment room in Arctis Tor is the NeverNever backdoor to Demonreach, but you have to get past Mab AND then Alfred in the real world. But in doing so it provided an idea of the force required to overcome Alfred with a Warden,  so not a total failure. A first attempt at a break in to ascertain how bad the defences were, for a better organised attempt in the future.

They successfully did the former and failed on the latter. For most beings Demonreach is a one way ticket, word of Alfred is very unlikely to get out. Only a handful of Wardens may have actually been privy to its full secrets with nothing ever written down because of the Archive, and if originally it was only accessed by the NeverNever, (likely as most of its history predates midern transport) its physical location may not have been known, especially as it doesn’t appear on maps. This made it more difficult for Kemmler to get back to Demonreach. Mab had closed the backdoor and made travel to the island by boat dangerous, especially for a wizard whose power is grounded by magic. The connection between Merlin and Mab in Peace Talks has been established

listen to the Wind and McCoy are relatively ‘local’ so may have figured out the rough area, getting final directions from Harry, merely confirmed it. As Blackstaff Eb may have been the last to deliver a Prisoner to Demonreach before Harry, presumably via the Never Never. Fortier may have been taken to the island by Rashid in the Never, Never with the blessing of Mab to become Warden and never went back.

Mab clearly had met Kemmler, hers is a personal opinion, which tends to support this theory. Rashid would shepherd a new Warden via Arctis Tor and probably make an introduction to Mab. This is pre Accords, so Mab would have been less on speaking terms with the Senior Council and other Wizards at this point, except Rashid.

Much of the series since Grave Peril has been about (1) controlling Harry and (2) controlling Demonreach with (1) and (2) becoming the same thing in Turn Coat.

[morriswalters]

Everything that happens through Cold Days revolves around an attempt to replace Mab on the throne with Maeve.

The attack on Demonreach is meant to sow chaos.  Butcher does a callback to Nicodemus's words in Death Mask to draw that association.

"Then why do this?"

Nicodemus studied me for a moment before smiling. "Apocalypse is a frame of mind," he said then. "A belief. A surrender to inevitability. It is despair for the future. It is the death of hope."

“Apocalypse isn’t an event,” Nemesis murmured. “It is a frame of mind.”
I probably would have staggered anyway, but the phrase hit hard.
“This was less a plan than . . . an act of faith, I suppose you would say,” the Outsider continued through Justine’s lips.
“Faith?” I asked.
“In what is coming,” the Walker said. “The unraveling of all things into darkness and silence.”

The last of the text from Battle Ground contrasts in how the event is seen by different eyes. Be it despair and the loss of hope or from Nemesis's POV the faith that the event will occur.

[Mira]

You misconstrue, the punishment room in Arctis Tor is the NeverNever backdoor to Demonreach, but you have to get past Mab AND then Alfred in the real world. But in doing so it provided an idea of the force required to overcome Alfred with a Warden,  so not a total failure. A first attempt at a break in to ascertain how bad the defences were, for a better organised attempt in the future.

What is your evidence for this?  Can you sight a quote from any of the novels or short stories to back this up? Story,chapter, page please.  The only thing close that I can think of is Lea's garden that was connected to Harry's basement apartment.. But that isn't the same as you are suggesting.

They successfully did the former and failed on the latter. For most beings Demonreach is a one way ticket, word of Alfred is very unlikely to get out. Only a handful of Wardens may have actually been privy to its full secrets with nothing ever written down because of the Archive, and if originally it was only accessed by the NeverNever, (likely as most of its history predates midern transport) its physical location may not have been known, especially as it doesn’t appear on maps. This made it more difficult for Kemmler to get back to Demonreach. Mab had closed the backdoor and made travel to the island by boat dangerous, especially for a wizard whose power is grounded by magic. The connection between Merlin and Mab in Peace Talks has been established

The closest thing to this is when Merlin created the island in the first place, he did emerged from the  Nevernever as described by Alfred and Bob explained to Harry in Cold Days.  However while what you suggest is a cool theory, even a theory has to have some hard evidence either in print or WOJ to back it up.

listen to the Wind and McCoy are relatively ‘local’ so may have figured out the rough area, getting final directions from Harry, merely confirmed it. As Blackstaff Eb may have been the last to deliver a Prisoner to Demonreach before Harry, presumably via the Never Never. Fortier may have been taken to the island by Rashid in the Never, Never with the blessing of Mab to become Warden and never went back.

No evidence for any of that.. Eb could have possibly taken a prisoner to the island, to what purpose? Eb doesn't have the authority as Warden to bind the prisoner and jail he,she,or it.  Rashid has as little to do with the island as possible, this is clearly stated in his conversation with Harry on What's Up Dock in Turn Coat.  Paraphrasing, "The island has a grudge against me.."

Mab clearly had met Kemmler, hers is a personal opinion, which tends to support this theory. Rashid would shepherd a new Warden via Arctis Tor and probably make an introduction to Mab. This is pre Accords, so Mab would have been less on speaking terms with the Senior Council and other Wizards at this point, except Rashid.

What is your evidence that "Mab clearly met Kemmler"?  Why would Rashid shepherd a new Warden to meet Mab?  Mab doesn't have anything to do with the island... More pointedly by her reaction in Cold Days to Harry's threat "to sic Alfred on her," she has no say at all on the island.

Much of the series since Grave Peril has been about (1) controlling Harry and (2) controlling Demonreach with (1) and (2) becoming the same thing in Turn Coat.

If that is Mab's aim, she isn't very successful.. Also it is clear from when Harry awakens in Ghost Story and the exchange between Mab and Alfred, on the island at least, Mab has no control of either Harry or the island.

[Conspiracy Theorist]

No, this was not an attack on Mab, she was not the intended target, if Maeve had succeeded Mab would have survived. She only turned up when it failed, to get her new Winter Lady.

The quotes are either lazy writing or Nicky is quoting someone else, that “someone else” is likely the Black Council Denarian. There is no indication Nicky is working with the Black Council (wittingly at least).

It would be typical of Jim to show us something only for us to not realise the import at the time. The rules of the NeverNever are such that Demonreach would back onto somewhere similar in the Never Never. We have seen Mab’s punishment room, her prison for the poweful the other likely option is Tartarus in Hades realm, less likely as that is a prison for ordinary souls.Maeve wouldn’t be able to access Tartarus, and wouldn’t dare, Rashid might have access, but both would have to have access from the same point to get onto Demonreach via the Never Never.

Merlin clearly built Demonreach as the ultimate prison, so he won’t have left the backdoor to the NeverNever unguarded, and will have designed a congruency into its creation with a particular point in the Never Never.

[morriswalters]

“What do you suppose will happen to you if you do not heed Mab’s command?” “Command?” I asked. “Don’t be coy, child,” Mother Summer sniffed. “What my counterpart knows, I know. Mab commanded you to slay Maeve. What do you think will happen if you disobey her?” I walked for a while before I answered, “It depends whether or not Mab’s still around when the smoke clears, I guess,” I said. “If she is . . . she’ll be upset. I’ll wind up like Lloyd Slate. If she isn’t . . .” “Yes?” “Maeve assumes Mab’s mantle and becomes the new Winter Queen.”

Butcher, Jim. Cold Days (The Dresden Files, Book 14) (p. 333). Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.

This is explicit and straightforward.  Cold Days was meant to be the coda on the story to that date..  And with the exception of one or two points it clears the books.

That quote isn't an accident. Butcher does this a lot as in these two examples from Summer Knight and Proven Guilty.

Sudden blue light gathered around her fingers, and the temperature in the room dropped by about forty degrees. She spoke again, and flicked her wrist, sending glowing motes of azure flickering toward Slate.

The snowflake brand flared into sudden light, and Slate's advance halted, his body going rigid. The skin around the brand turned blue, then purple, then black, spreading like a stop-motion enhanced film of gangrene. A quiet snarl slipped from Slate's lips, and I could see his body trembling with the effort to continue toward Maeve. He shuddered and took another step forward.

He shivered then, and when he exhaled his breath came out in a long, frosty plume. The temperature had dropped maybe forty degrees in the space of a minute.

I struggled to ignore the sounds of frightened people in the dark and focused on my magical senses. I reached out to the cold and the gloom, and found it a vaguely familiar kind of spellworking, though I couldn’t remember precisely where I’d encountered it before.

“What’s wrong?” Rawlins asked, his voice tight.

We passed under one of the hotel’s emergency light fixtures, its floodlights only dim orange rings in the murk until my amulet’s light burned the shadows away. “Dark magic,” I growled through clenched teeth. “A kind of ward. Trying to keep me from moving ahead.”

I just showed you where he had seen it. And he runs into the same ward that Slate did.  Murk is also used in this scene and is used again in Small Favor.

[Conspiracy Theorist]

Of course each Mother knows what the other does, they are both Intellectus. Doesn’t apply to Queens or Ladies.

Those quotes do not point to an attack on the succession, they point to an attack to prevent Maeve betraying Winter. Remember Mad had an inside man for decades way before Grave Peril.

[morriswalters]

The Mother's know what each does for a number of reasons.  The are part of something that was split to make them, maybe Hecate.  They are also the Fates.  When Harry summons Mother Winter he uses her other names.

Athropos! Skuld! Mother Winter, I summon thee!”

Butcher, Jim. Cold Days (The Dresden Files, Book 14) (p. 319). Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.

Leading to this exchange.

Mother Winter’s rocker creaked, though it didn’t really seem to move. “He knew certain names. He was not wholly stupid in choosing them, or wholly wrong in using them.” Mother Summer’s bright green eyes narrowed. “Did he . . . ?” “No,” croaked Mother Winter. “Not that one. But he has seen the adversary, and learned one of its names.”

Butcher, Jim. Cold Days (The Dresden Files, Book 14) (p. 329). Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.

Mab has given her word to defend the Gates. There is no outcome where the Gates are opened that ends with Mab as a living Queen. Butcher has pretty much made that explicit. The recurring theme throughout Cold Days is who does Harry need to kill.

I going to share some random thoughts since we seem to be talking past each other.  The tendency is to look at the Queens and think the Hecate was split into Winter and Summer and then to Mother, Matron and Lady.  Butcher in one of the thousands of WOJ's says that is incorrect. I suspect the third Fate's manifestation is the Outer Gates.

I think that the Lady and the Knight were creations different then the Queens, that is that the Queen's become part of Hecate but the Lady and the Knight don't.  This is weakly supported in the text. One of the purposes of the Ladies Mantle may to be to remove the humanity from the person who assumes it to prepare them to be the Queen. And this would be why Molly and the Ladies cannot have sex.

Rashid may have been a former Winter Knight and may represent what Harry could become. That is purely speculative. I could go on but I think people are already rolling their eyes.

[Mira]

I think that the Lady and the Knight were creations different then the Queens, that is that the Queen's become part of Hecate but the Lady and the Knight don't.  This is weakly supported in the text. One of the purposes of the Ladies Mantle may to be to remove the humanity from the person who assumes it to prepare them to be the Queen. And this would be why Molly and the Ladies cannot have sex.

I don't think so,  Skin Game page336

"Is that Hecate?" Ascher murmured, staring up at the statues in awe. "The triple goddess of the crossroads, right?"
I swallowed.  "Uh. It. . .Yes, it might be."
And it might also be Grannies Summer and Winter, Mab, Titania, Sarissa, and Molly Carpenter. But I didn't say anything about that.

[morriswalters]

Whatever works for you.  I'm going to try and support it but the WOJ database is almost useless on search. I'll either post it or I won't.

[Conspiracy Theorist]

Nemesis role is as saboteur to sow discord and dissent behind the “enemy” lines and weaken the current defenders of the Gates. Killing the Queen is no good because of the Succession of Mantles. Winter’s role is actually the protector of humanity. Destroy humanity then Winter loses its purpose and the Gates fail. That is why all the apocalypses, or attempts at the same. Damage humanity enough through an ice age, or a plague or a massive super explosion by blowing up Demonreach’s failsafe, or setting a Titan on humanity then it weakens the Defenders enough for the Gates to be breached.

In the Mirrorverse we have to presume Harry did not stop the Summer Knights power going into Winter (strengthening Winter) causing an Ice Age. Harry did not stop the plague Nicodemus unleashed with the fake Shroud. Harry did not stop the Red Court decimating the White Council and getting its fangs deeper into humanity. Harry did not become Warden of Demonreach meaning someone else maybe and is releasing its inhabitants on humanity, and there is a Titan roaming free, taking out City after City. That may well be the Mirror Universe that will appear in Mirror Mirror, a terminator style apocalypse where humanity is losing and losing badly and the Gates are crumbling.

If the Gates are breached, yes Mab will be dead, so will everyone else in that universe, the White God probably deletes any universe where that occurs to prevent all of reality being affected, plus any universe(s) which split from the infected universe. Thus if the Mirrorverse gates fail then it will be deleted but not the Prime Dresdenverse as they split in Grave Peril.

If Harry defeats Nemesis (including the Black Council, and quite possibly their dupes like Nicky) then the Dresdenverse Prime is safe as well as all split off universes from it. At least for now.

[Mira]

Nemesis role is as saboteur to sow discord and dissent behind the “enemy” lines and weaken the current defenders of the Gates. Killing the Queen is no good because of the Succession of Mantles. Winter’s role is actually the protector of humanity. Destroy humanity then Winter loses its purpose and the Gates fail. That is why all the apocalypses, or attempts at the same. Damage humanity enough through an ice age, or a plague or a massive super explosion by blowing up Demonreach’s failsafe, or setting a Titan on humanity then it weakens the Defenders enough for the Gates to be breached.

Yes, that is why Nemesis tried to infiltrate the Winter Court with the Knife, and with the infection of Maeve nearly succeeded.  I think we have yet to see the full repercussions from that.  Yes, seemingly it all turned out but because she internalizes so much we don't know what having to order the death of her daughter and death of her daughter did to Mab. 

[morriswalters]

Mother Summer tells you the possible outcomes. With Mab dead and Maeve in charge the brakes would be off.  Harry would eventually end up like Slate and without Mab to enforce the accords Summer would go to war to protect humanity, which is Titania's purpose, again per Mother Summer. Cold Days was the end of an arc and it ties up most of the mysteries  of the first half.

[Mira]

Mother Summer tells you the possible outcomes. With Mab dead and Maeve in charge the brakes would be off.  Harry would eventually end up like Slate and without Mab to enforce the accords Summer would go to war to protect humanity, which is Titania's purpose, again per Mother Summer. Cold Days was the end of an arc and it ties up most of the mysteries  of the first half.

Yes, but we also have the conversation between Harry and Mab after Maeve's death, and Mab admits to being human once.  Kringle warns Harry to not have this kind of conversation in front of others because of her pride and perhaps fear of appearing vulnerable.  In my opinion this hints of possible future problems with Mab aside from the obvious ones.  It may have even been a factor in Mab ordering Harry to kill Molly if something happens to her.  I know we've come up with a lot of explanation, like she wants Lara to be her successor or that Molly isn't ready so kill her off.  However this order came before she proposed the marriage between Harry and Lara, so if Mab died, and the mantle automatically passed to Molly, Mab is asking Harry to kill his Queen.  It is just very odd is all I am saying.