Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?

[groinkick]

Lots of death, but no call out for reinforcements and they leave without getting to Lea.  That says more that the mook bodyguards got sacrificed for whatever reason than Arctis Tor was in danger of falling.

Who hits Mab and lives to tell the tale??  Apparently the ones who hit there.  They had to be heavy hitters.  Ok at a minimum, who do you think could have pulled it off?  Gone to the heart of Winter, hit a location where Mab was, and not get obliterated?

[Second Aristh]

Don't read this if you don't want a half ass WAG. And it is just that.

(click to show/hide)

The answers to your questions may be revealed in the text. Starting with the Cantina Scene in Summer Knight. Harry will tell Billy something about Maeve.  Eb's question at the start of  Proven Guilty tells you why Arctis Tor was attacked.  By Cold Days you should know how Rashid knew. Of the 5 attacks consider the ones where people died and the ones where they didn't. Consider the possibility that the last attack at Michael's house happened before the attack at the Fool Moon Garage and that Harry was wrong about how Scarecrow got to the Fool Moon Garage.  Consider why someone might want Madrigal dead in light of the events of White Knight. Harry learns three things at Arctis Tor.  Mab has been attacked at her stronghold.  Lea has some weird disease.  And Slate still lives. Then consider Dead Beat. The last time you hear from Mab directly is in Dead Beat.  She won't speak to Harry again until Changes. In Proven Guilty Mab is alone and the Courts are out of balance. Michael tells you who the events were meant to protect in the denouement. Mab points at Namshiel as the culprit in Small Favor And by the end of Skin Game she has killed or ruined everyone she can reach associated with the attack.  And it's even money Namshiel acted alone.

The WAG would be easier to follow if it was explicit instead of a series of innuendos.  This is a spoiler section full of people that have read the series several times over.

[Second Aristh]

Who hits Mab and lives to tell the tale??  Apparently the ones who hit there.  They had to be heavy hitters.  Ok at a minimum, who do you think could have pulled it off?  Gone to the heart of Winter, hit a location where Mab was, and not get obliterated?

I think it's more complicated than that.  There's a contradiction: it has to be a group tough enough that they can do that kind of damage in the heart of Winter.  At the same time, they have to be weak enough that Mab didn't feel like there was any real danger for her interests (otherwise call in reinforcements).  WoJ says that Wild Hunt + Erlking + Namshiel would be iffy about Mab even needing to make an effort to stop them.

Altogether, it makes it seem like Mab made a judgement call and showed restraint towards the attackers for an unknown reason.  Harry didn't notice any enemy bodies Mab left behind, but her guards were all killed.  In the end, the attack doesn't seem to have met its objective either.  Mab still has Lea on ice (if that was even the goal at all).

[groinkick]

I think it's more complicated than that.  There's a contradiction: it has to be a group tough enough that they can do that kind of damage in the heart of Winter.  At the same time, they have to be weak enough that Mab didn't feel like there was any real danger for her interests (otherwise call in reinforcements).  WoJ says that Wild Hunt + Erlking + Namshiel would be iffy about Mab even needing to make an effort to stop them.

Altogether, it makes it seem like Mab made a judgement call and showed restraint towards the attackers for an unknown reason.  Harry didn't notice any enemy bodies Mab left behind, but her guards were all killed.  In the end, the attack doesn't seem to have met its objective either.  Mab still has Lea on ice (if that was even the goal at all).

Here is a theory.  What if Mab needed her full focus to isolate Nemesis in Leah, leaving her vulnerable.  Nemesis knowing this directed It's forces to launch the attack in an attempt to force Mab, at a critical moment, to lose her focus. 

[Second Aristh]

Here is a theory.  What if Mab needed her full focus to isolate Nemesis in Leah, leaving her vulnerable.  Nemesis knowing this directed It's forces to launch the attack in an attempt to force Mab, at a critical moment, to lose her focus.

Possible, but then Mab can cut her losses and kill Lea.  She did it with Maeve.

[groinkick]

Possible, but then Mab can cut her losses and kill Lea.  She did it with Maeve.

Maybe not.  Maybe once the process of removing Nemesis has been started, it cannot be halted, or she risks Nemesis entering her mind. 

[Second Aristh]

Maybe not.  Maybe once the process of removing Nemesis has been started, it cannot be halted, or she risks Nemesis entering her mind.

I kinda doubt it, but it's possible.  Mab's "cure" seems to be more like a mental wall of ice blocking Nemesis from entering whatever backdoor it made in Lea's mind.

As a different thought along those lines, perhaps Mab made a masterful counterstroke with Lea.  If Nemesis has a finite amount of hosts it can bounce between, keeping Lea alive but unable to be controlled might deprive Nemesis of a host body it could otherwise have.  Say the Arctis Tor attack was an assassination on Lea gone wrong.  With Lea on ice, Mab should have been at the Outer Gates.  Perfect time to make a ballsy move in her empty palace.  Except, nope there she is.  Time to leave as quickly as possible?  Mab might have chased them, but they're not big enough fish to deserve her personal attention.  Especially if it might have been a feint and more attackers would sneak in with Arctis Tor actually empty.

That kind of idea would have the right caliber of enemy to kill Lea (hence burn Arctis Tor) but not worry Mab.

[The_Sibelis]

If Nemesis has a finite amount of hosts it can bounce between, keeping Lea alive but unable to be controlled might deprive Nemesis of a host body it could otherwise have

certainly possible. Though I also wonder if, to trap part of it, you can't more or less "kill" it as far as that's possible, or use the connection to lock down every host/piece of Nemesis via Thaumaturgy. The kill part I wonder about because of what Nic said when Harry was telling him this, about it having a sense of self preservation. Preservation wouldn't be the right word if it wasn't under some real sort of threat.
Though, I'm sure she had to rub against Lea's consciousness to help her fight nemesis, so I do see that as a possibility.

[Second Aristh]

certainly possible. Though I also wonder if, to trap part of it, you can't more or less "kill" it as far as that's possible, or use the connection to lock down every host/piece of Nemesis via Thaumaturgy. The kill part I wonder about because of what Nic said when Harry was telling him this, about it having a sense of self preservation. Preservation wouldn't be the right word if it wasn't under some real sort of threat.
Though, I'm sure she had to rub against Lea's consciousness to help her fight nemesis, so I do see that as a possibility.

Anduriel was making a comment about Harry keeping his mouth shut when talking about self preservation.

[The_Sibelis]

Anduriel was making a comment about Harry keeping his mouth shut when talking about self preservation.

🤔 no he wasn't? He was discussing what happened with anduriel while harry gave him mad amounts of lip, that's not a self preservation instinct, that's harry. Harry's not an IT either so..

[Second Aristh]

Harry was snarking off, but he decided to keep his mouth shut for once. Harry makes an inner monologue comment about behaving. Plus Anduriel doesn’t care that Harry isn’t an it.

[The_Sibelis]

Harry was snarking off, but he decided to keep his mouth shut for once. Harry makes an inner monologue comment about shutting up. Plus Anduriel doesn’t care that Harry isn’t an it.

yea, I'll go scrounge for my book right now. That's not the way that scene plays out. And Nic says it, not Andy. I've already had a similar discussion on divorcing pronouns based on perspective and how older beings refer to Nemesis as it.

[Second Aristh]

Go for it. I just reread the passage like last week. It’s their meeting at the shedd before the archive kidnapping.

[TheCuriousFan]

🤔 no he wasn't? He was discussing what happened with anduriel while harry gave him mad amounts of lip, that's not a self preservation instinct, that's harry. Harry's not an IT either so..

His arm quivered for a second, and then he lowered his eyelids until they were almost closed. A moment later he very, very slowly relaxed his arm, allowing me to breathe again. My throat burned, but air came in, and I wheezed for a second or two while he stepped back from me.

I glared up at him and debated slamming him through one of those Corinthian columns by way of objecting to being manhandled. But I decided that I didn’t want to piss him off.

Nicodemus’s lips moved, but an entirely different voice issued from them—something musical, lyrical, and androgynous. “At least it has some survival instinct.”

[The_Sibelis]

I've never seen it interpreted that way, I only recall others discussing Nemesis in relation to this event. Andy came out because of what Harry said about hellfire and Arctis Tor, leaving almost immediately after. I don't see why he'd be interested in Harry there, though I do see the perspective.