Could Dresden have been wrong about Thorned?

[morriswalters]

I hope he applies the principle of parsimony. But he will use it and has said when.

[Mira]

I hope he applies the principle of parsimony. But he will use it and has said when.

Yeah, well, Harry has always been a bit tight, and with good reason, he has always lived from hand to mouth...  He does have some degree of wealth now from the diamonds, and who knows Murphy may have left him her share as well, but old habits die hard.

[groinkick]

It's been done so much it is tired, which is my point..  There is enough multidimensional interplay, the Outsiders, the Old Ones, the Outer Gates, the Nevernever, Hades, Heaven, Valhalla, wizards. that all along the way in real time beings from these dimensions could be messing with Little Chicago, calling up Cornerhounds, etc., for their own reasons, no need for Harry or anyone else to travel though time for any of it.  The trick is for him to figure out the big mystery.. Not as easy perhaps as time travel, but perhaps more interesting.

How can you think Harry could face someone who's been altering time without messing with time himself?  I for one am looking forward to it.  I also am thinking that the time travel story will reveal who Cowl, and Kumori are.

[morriswalters]

How can you think Harry could face someone who's been altering time without messing with time himself?  I for one am looking forward to it.  I also am thinking that the time travel story will reveal who Cowl, and Kumori are.

Who has altered time? What event will he fix?

[groinkick]

Who has altered time? What event will he fix?

If I knew that I would know what going to happen several books from now.  My guess for example is that future Harry fixes past Little Chicago.  I don't think Harry will be chasing someone through time.  I think that someone during those time periods was breaking the rules in such a way that Harry goes back to correct things to the way they were supposed to play out.  I don't know how "they" messed things up.  I just feel that Harry goes back to fix things.

[morriswalters]

I actually agree.  Assuming that he will go back then he has already done it for any event that has already made it into the text. You've identified one and I believe there are others. But having Harry fix an event in which he might die is paradoxical.  If he dies how does he exist to go back and change the event and how does he know it has to be him?

[The_Sibelis]

They get around free will by, well, just straight up not violating it directly. Twinning the universes is a different sort of paradox (or did Odin say apocalypse 🤔 )
Take the events of DB. Harry was supposed to die in that Alley. He didn't specifically because of Kumori getting Marcones attention reviving the thug on Wacker St. Which I know, should be paradoxical in itself. But why wasn't it? Because the thug was never supposed to die. We've already seen another prime example of someone messing with perceptions to get two groups to shoot each other, when the Rag Lady was operating. So, she does something to cause a shoot out(which works really good as a future Alt version of Molly btw) and then something spectacular to draw attention to it's oddity. This cascade's into Marcone making the choice to go meet Dresden and save him in the Alley. The rules have already been laid out, you just have to look for things that fit.
The funny thing to me, is Kumori does that minutes before they show up together at Bocks. I think if Harry had died in the alley, there wouldn't be a body left to revive. So cowl didn't exist when fate was on that path, only Kumori. Timeline flux with each intervention changing who went back from where and what they changed,

[Second Aristh]

I actually agree.  Assuming that he will go back then he has already done it for any event that has already made it into the text. You've identified one and I believe there are others. But having Harry fix an event in which he might die is paradoxical.  If he dies how does he exist to go back and change the event and how does he know it has to be him?

Yeah, I think Harry to go back through time to make sure what has already happened happens (Prisoner of Azkaban style).  Chasing someone through time to prevent them from screwing with the timeline is one convenient way to do that, but regardless I expect the time travel book to be the one where the important behind the scenes information of the big bads' actions can be conveyed to the reader.  Jim can get Harry's eyes on events that he had no way of knowing or understanding during the regular case files.  For example, we get to see how Little Chicago got fixed, we get to see what was going on with Arctis Tor, how did Aurora get infected, who hired Shagnasty, etc.
It's also a good chance for fan service by giving dead characters good cameos.  Susan, Morgan, or Aurora perhaps.

Say Harry does it nearly perfectly, one small error in judgement could mean the kickoff to the BAT.

[morriswalters]

Maybe, but I don't see a reason to do much around PG other than LC.  As of Cold Days most of the characters are dead.

[Second Aristh]

Maybe, but I don't see a reason to do much around PG other than LC.  As of Cold Days most of the characters are dead.

It also gives Harry a chance to use LC one last time before it blows up.  It got a lot of page time for something that only got used once or twice.

Regardless, it would be nice to know if the Denarian throwing hellfire in Arctis Tor was working alone as well as the purpose of the assault.  If it was to rescue Nem!Lea, why did they kill all the trolls but not finish the job in the garden (where Mab would have been able to skewer them thoroughly)?  If Mab did step in to stop them, where are all their bodies?  If it was a stealth mission, throwing hellfire isn't that stealthy.  Overall, it's confusing even when you make the assumption that Maeve was bumping Mab's elbow with ordering fetches around (thereby revealing her own infection).

[groinkick]

It also gives Harry a chance to use LC one last time before it blows up.  It got a lot of page time for something that only got used once or twice.

Regardless, it would be nice to know if the Denarian throwing hellfire in Arctis Tor was working alone as well as the purpose of the assault.  If it was to rescue Nem!Lea, why did they kill all the trolls but not finish the job in the garden (where Mab would have been able to skewer them thoroughly)?  If Mab did step in to stop them, where are all their bodies?  If it was a stealth mission, throwing hellfire isn't that stealthy.  Overall, it's confusing even when you make the assumption that Maeve was bumping Mab's elbow with ordering fetches around (thereby revealing her own infection).

That's the thing.  We saw what Mab was capable of in Battle Ground.  Mab was at the heart of Winter, in her fortress, and her forces got demolished.  It doesn't appear the attackers were successful, but they got pretty darn close.  There had to have been some extremely heavy hitters there.  I'd like to know who they were.

[Second Aristh]

That's the thing.  We saw what Mab was capable of in Battle Ground.  Mab was at the heart of Winter, in her fortress, and her forces got demolished.  It doesn't appear the attackers were successful, but they got pretty darn close.  There had to have been some extremely heavy hitters there.  I'd like to know who they were.

Troll bodyguards got killed, but "demolished" might be an overstatement.

But to correct some minor stuff:  the fetches aren’t even /close/ to her strongest servitors.  They’re her couriers, harassers, spies and occasional assassins.  Captain Kudzu was a being that was deemed more-or-less sufficient on the badassometer, but nothing to write home about.  The fetches main use, to Mab, isn’t as battlefield thugs.  She’s got /plenty/ of other things for that.  Another mild correction:  who says Mab /lost/ the battle at Arctis Tor, before Harry and Company arrived?  At the end of the day, the Winter Queen was still in her fortress–but you didn’t see anyone standing around assaulting the place, did ya.   Also, it has probably occurred to more than one of you that if Mab was /really/ in trouble, she could have had the entire military might of Faerie back at the fortress in moments–exactly the way they *did* come back when Harry smacked the Winter Well with the fires of Summer.

Edit:
Balance that with

    The Wild Hunt lead by a couple of Denarians such at Thorned Namshiel, The Erlking and a bunch of Outsiders could get the job done. That would have been a fight to see (from a distance).

Nah, they wouldn’t even come close.  I mean… it’s like comparing apples and… and hand grenades.

Just about the best they could hope to accomplish would be to force Mab to make an effort.  Though when Mab came for them, it wouldn’t be a kick-down-the-door-and-kick-ass kind of encounter.  It would be a One-two-three-four-five-Hey-weren’t-there-SIX-of-us-here-a-second-ago? situation.

I mean, sure, the Erlking is a peer of Mab’s–but there’s kind of a reason that it’s /Mab/ who rules the Worst of the Worst in Faerie, and not the Erlking.

All of which doesn’t even TOUCH on the way power is actually balanced in Faerie, because neither Mab nor the Erlking would attempt such a thing, or /consider/ attempting such a thing.  It would upset the natural order.  Conflicts between most of the Fae powers are very subtle, and generally involve proxies, pride, sex or all of the above.

Harry (or Molly or Murphy or Butters or any other mortal) has more potential to harm Mab than that crew.  Not much more likelihood of victory, true, but it isn’t /zero/, either.

Jim

I agree that more information would be better.  It's a confusing scene, and I don't think we have enough clues to make a great guess yet.

[morriswalters]

It also gives Harry a chance to use LC one last time before it blows up.  It got a lot of page time for something that only got used once or twice.

Regardless, it would be nice to know if the Denarian throwing hellfire in Arctis Tor was working alone as well as the purpose of the assault.  If it was to rescue Nem!Lea, why did they kill all the trolls but not finish the job in the garden (where Mab would have been able to skewer them thoroughly)?  If Mab did step in to stop them, where are all their bodies?  If it was a stealth mission, throwing hellfire isn't that stealthy.  Overall, it's confusing even when you make the assumption that Maeve was bumping Mab's elbow with ordering fetches around (thereby revealing her own infection).

Don't read this if you don't want a half ass WAG. And it is just that.

(click to show/hide)

The answers to your questions may be revealed in the text. Starting with the Cantina Scene in Summer Knight. Harry will tell Billy something about Maeve.  Eb's question at the start of  Proven Guilty tells you why Arctis Tor was attacked.  By Cold Days you should know how Rashid knew. Of the 5 attacks consider the ones where people died and the ones where they didn't. Consider the possibility that the last attack at Michael's house happened before the attack at the Fool Moon Garage and that Harry was wrong about how Scarecrow got to the Fool Moon Garage.  Consider why someone might want Madrigal dead in light of the events of White Knight. Harry learns three things at Arctis Tor.  Mab has been attacked at her stronghold.  Lea has some weird disease.  And Slate still lives. Then consider Dead Beat. The last time you hear from Mab directly is in Dead Beat.  She won't speak to Harry again until Changes. In Proven Guilty Mab is alone and the Courts are out of balance. Michael tells you who the events were meant to protect in the denouement. Mab points at Namshiel as the culprit in Small Favor And by the end of Skin Game she has killed or ruined everyone she can reach associated with the attack.  And it's even money Namshiel acted alone.

[groinkick]

Troll bodyguards got killed, but "demolished" might be an overstatement.

The fire was so hot that Harry said he couldn't have done it with Hellfire.  There were skeletons everywhere, indicating a lot of death.  I believe Dresden called them Mab's personal guard.  In other words, badasses.  Mab wouldn't have wimps for protection. 

[Second Aristh]

The fire was so hot that Harry said he couldn't have done it with Hellfire.  There were skeletons everywhere, indicating a lot of death.  I believe Dresden called them Mab's personal guard.  In other words, badasses.  Mab wouldn't have wimps for protection.

Lots of death, but no call out for reinforcements and they leave without getting to Lea.  That says more that the mook bodyguards got sacrificed for whatever reason than Arctis Tor was in danger of falling.