Nicodemus theory spoilers, spoilers , spoilers

[happyelf]

Hey guys I want to run this one by ye all and see if anyone agrees with me because anytime I mention it on forums people think I am thrashing nico and don’t read the post properly.

Obviously this will be spoiler heavy so if your not caught up to skin game don’t read.

Spoilers

So my theory is simple enough since his first appearance we have been told the Nicodemus is the baddest of the bad ,feared , respected the oldest of the denerians nearly or maybe over two millennia in age. He has killed hundreds of knights pulled many a successful schemes to the point that Mab has a personal grudge. Yet from his first appearance while being a compelling character, and one of my favourites, he has been underwhelming in fact he has had his ass handed to him on a regular basis in essence what we are told doesn’t match what is on page yes he always nearly wins but that doesn’t cut it my theory is simple I think it’s dilerbrate and a long game is being played I don’t think the overall ineffectiveness and the near misses is accidental, I don’t know what the long game is but the reason I think there is one
* lots of other characters have told us how dangerous nico is, however we also know he regularly destroys all info about himself so while we knew he was dangerous we didn’t have details on how or his particular capabilities if he is holding back there’s a legitimate reason already built in why the knights ext didn’t know.
* Age is power: yeah I know this isn’t exactly scientific but so far in the Dresden files supernatural world the older you are the more powerful relative at least to the others of your kind you are, it’s why the position of eldest in faerie types is important. So ask yourself how come with centuries or millennia in the difference between him and other denerians where’s the personal power difference the ability or skills that the others don’t have yes he has his shadow but they have there battle forms I call that a draw not a overwhelming advantage.
We know from Tomas that even without any inherent magical talent it’s possible to develop some measure of ability Nico has had two millennia, no shortage of intelligence or will power and a fallen angel in his head.

* nickleheads aren’t seen as that dangerous overall fair point they have been underwhelming as a group but we know they divide between those who are cannon fodder and those who work with their angels it’s a bit strange that so many of the coins given out end up with cannon fodder we know that nicos wife did that deliberately what if nico is doing it two for his own reasons, to breed complacency?

* when I bring up his ineffectiveness the main point that is brought up is the fact that as a general rule of thumb wizards are more dangerous then knights
So A)while generally true that would depend on the wizard and his particular ability and strengths I would imagine b) Micheal has killed a dragon which woj has put at the level of mab on a purely personal power level so obviously if the knights quest is blessed they can be much more dangerous then the average wizard. B) and once your kill count is in the hundreds for knights some of them would have to be exceptional dangerous individuals even for knights.

* look I can’t provide details on who he has tangled with in the past , so I can’t really argue in good faith with people who say maybe he just hasn’t dealt with anyone as dangerous as Dresden before but I will say logically as the Devils emissary on earth and having survived two millennia being a active participant in events getting into grudges and feuds with beings like Mab it doesn’t make sense that he is such, a relative, pushover.

We know that his last appearance was framed as a loss yet he did get away with something from hades vault, in the first book we took it for granted that it was the genuine shroud that marcone got in the end but since it’s magic is faith based I don’t think that could be guaranteed ie Dresden would know if it wa fake all I am saying is I think that his appearances were all about set up and something is coming.

My final bit of evidence flimsy as it is is this, Jim is my favourite UF author for two reasons he loves a good sucker punch which this would play into, and he is very good about contunity and the little details at least relative to most authors I just think it’s strange that of all the villains that have appeared that nico is the only one with such a obvious difference between what we see on page and what other characters say when something doesn’t match up Jim has thought me to pay attention.

[Bad Alias]

I agree with your premise that Nicodemus is hyped as a threat relative to what we see on the page. On the other hand, he doesn't ham it up like an evil overlord as most of Harry's other opponents do.

Honestly, Harry's "frenemies" seem more competent than his enemies. Marcone, Kincaid, and Lara, in order of most to least competent, all seem like they would do a better job of beating Harry than Nicodemus. I think that has a lot to do with the fact that they've never gone directly up against Dresden (except Kincaid, who actually killed Harry because Harry was in on it). Nicodemus loses because that's how it works in the Dresden Files.  As soon as Lara, Marcone, or Kincaid go toe to toe with Harry, they will lose.

Jim could have had Nicodemus win bigger or have more costly, to Harry, victories, but Nicodemus hasn't had a single unmitigated defeat. In Death Masks, Nicodemus tortures Shiro to death, and Harry picks up a coin. In Small Favor, Michael gets taken out as a knight, Tessa loses most of her support, and Marcone and Ivy are tortured. Skin Game is Nic's biggest defeat, but he still gets the Holy Grail.

That's got to be a big deal. The only enemy who seems to lose less than Nic is the Black Council, Circle, and/or Nemesis. It's hard to tell who's actually behind what.

An alternate explanation for why Nicodemus doesn't match his scary reputation is that his reputation is a lie. In a few hundred years, he could probably spin Skin Game as a victory.

[Yuillegan]

It's a difficult problem, power balancing. Any author will tell you so. How do you make a villain so threatening that he creates the real feeling of apprehension without being insurmountable for the hero or without the hero having to do unbelievable things just to survive? We measure heroes by the villains they encounter and so Harry seems stronger because of the enemies that he faces (and wins against). But the reverse is true too. A villain is more terrifying for not just how often he beats the hero, but how he does it.

Nicodemus has a formidable reputation in the Dresden Files, as does Anduriel. They are a frightening team. But because Nicodemus isn't the biggest brawler (in a book about a Wizard brawler) he doesn't seem to have the same threat level. It's as much a matter of perspective as writing. We know things Harry doesn't know about Nicodemus. Were Harry to realise that Nicodemus were potentially a threat to reality he might start working a bit harder to stop him. And when we have seen Nicodemus fight it's mostly defensively. We haven't really seen him as an assassin. He doesn't really duel because he doesn't fight fair - too easy to lose. He is deadly though. And you can tell how deadly because of how much work Dresden has to do to beat him. He doesn't go down in duels generally. He is smart enough to flee to avoid being killed (when you've lived 2000 years you have to be pretty darwinian to stay alive). Dresden often has to use every dirty trick and every bit of strength he can just to beat him (and several times Nicodemus manages to hinder or limit him before he even starts).

The thing is, as Bad Alias points out even Nicodemus' losses are not complete defeats. He often still gets quite a bit out of his foes, his pound of flesh if you like, and he still manages to salvage something out of nothing. In some ways, it's more impressive because I don't think many of Harry's foes consistently do that when defeated.

At the end of the day though Jim has to resolve conflict in the story and in order for that to happen he chooses Nicodemus to be defeated. Is there a more elegant solution? Maybe, but Jim is a pretty damn good writer and it's one thing to conceptualise things but quite another to write them in a scene. If he is writing things a certain way I'd say there was good reason, and who are we as amateurs to judge?

Dresden does get beaten too. Often not at the resolution of the book, but certainly in confrontations with his foes. I suspect we will see more horrible and despairing encounters as time goes on. But to be honest, if the series was too depressing and Dresden lost too much it wouldn't make sense and would become unenjoyable, at least in my mind. It's a fine balance between a strong, victorious hero and a tragic one. And Jim wants to keep selling books (and ultimately tell a good story).

I suspect before the end we will really see what the Denarians and Nicodemus can really do, and I am sure it will be horrible.

Of course, you could be right and it is a massive long-con by Jim. Maybe it's all of the above. And you're right, Jim is pretty good at delivering the goods so eventually when things resolve I expect the payoff to be fairly satisfying. Regardless, I am not worried.

[Con]

I mean from Nicodemus's perspective he has broke even on most of his gambits. Death Mask he kills one of the few Knights of the Cross to defeat him, and does so in a torturous way. Plus plants Lasciel with Dresden.

Small Favor he even speculates out loud that the death of Thorned Namshiel is a win in his book, and puts Michael out of the game.

Skin Game he gets the Grail.

I think he's deluded himself into thinking he's broke even on most of those.

[Bad Alias]

But to be honest, if the series was too depressing and Dresden lost too much it wouldn't make sense and would become unenjoyable, at least in my mind. It's a fine balance between a strong, victorious hero and a tragic one.

I think this is key. If every victory was as costly as Harry's victory in Changes, I don't think I'd enjoy this series. But because Changes is a milestone in so many ways, it is one of my favorite, if not favorite, book in the series. It also ends in a way that hints everything is going to be all right. I'm referring more to the familiar woman's voice saying "hush now." The light at the end of the tunnel being accompanied by a train whistle also hints that things aren't going to be that different for Harry. It definitely let's you know more is coming.

And on the flip side of costly victories, if every victory was so decisive in Harry's favor, I think the stakes wouldn't feel very important either. One of the great things about the DF is that the events of one book have consequences throughout the series. Ever since SF, Harry has had the consequences of his meeting with Bianca in nearly every book, even if it's only in the background in some of them. There are obvious consequences in nearly every book so far even after the Red Court is destroyed.

[happyelf]

All good points the main reason I have been pondering nico, is at least to some degree the infernal courts/ hell are going to play a role at some stage , I vaguely recall or possibly just imagined  that one of the last books will be called Hells bells. I do think it’s possible that there’s a plan going on that will reframe nicos near wins into something else or maybe not. The main reason I think there’s , possibly,  something going on Apart from what I stated in my post is simply how effective Lara and Marcone have been written though yes I know they haven’t directly faced off agaisnt Dresden but they have shown how masterfully they have utilised there new resources and developed even as Dresden has had a pretty steady power creep they have, in some ways, kept pace while nico on the other hand has , on the face of it underwhelmed. Either way it’s fun specaluating till we get our hands on peace talks and battlegrounds.

[g33k]

... at least to some degree the infernal courts/ hell are going to play a role at some stage , I vaguely recall or possibly just imagined  that one of the last books will be called Hells bells ...

The series proper, the "Case Files," are expected to be 21-22 books, IIRC (barring any more 2:1 splits, like with Battle Ground, or sudden Brilliant Idea for a whole new story, etc).

Then there will be the "Big Apocalyptic Trilogy" which is ... apocalyptic, one presumes.  I believe the planned titles for these 3 are:  Stars and Stones, Empty Night, & Hells Bells.

[Bad Alias]

@happyelf: I hope your wag is correct because I really do agree that Nicodemus has been oversold as a major threat, even though the only character to cause Harry more damage has been Harry.

[Yuillegan]

Mmm, I agree. It would be nice to see the balance tip in his favor. In fact, there are quite a few villains who fit that category. Part of the problem is how Jim builds up villains but then has Harry smack them down. Perhaps also some of the way the fights were written too. This also applies to some other heroes too - in point of fact I would even say some of them are stronger than they should be. But it's hard to tell. And Jim seems to want to write a series where the light prevails more than the dark, so I think it's fair to write things this way.

But yes, it would be nice to see Nicodemus and those like him really show what they can do.

happelf - Yeah, we should see what Hell is up to in the later series as Jim has said the Devil will eventually be on stage. I do wonder about Marcone and Lara. I think part of their success is due to not being on the recieving end of Dresden's wrath whilst simultaneously being aided by him and even capitalising well off their interactions and the general chaos Dresden creates. Someone else who has heavily benefited is Mab, but also Lea.

Bad Alias - Totally agree. Changes worked because of the build up and because it was so different. But an entire series like that would be ridiculous. Quite right, it's important that the "risks" to Dresden and the world feel real and important. Consequences are one of the biggest themes in the books and Jim does it really well.

[Ed0517]

I don't know .. he retreats.... but he takes out Shiro. Shiro is not coming back,  Nic is.

The good guys prune the organizational tree, getting rid of rotten Namshiel. And Michael, who killed a dragon, is retired (when he doesn't borrow Uriel's jet - which left Uriel in danger, even if he was not hurt)

He HAS the Grail... is it possible that was the main quest? If he picked up multiple items,  his crew revolts and all take some.. how do they know which was the ONE that Nic really wanted? 

Are his losses transitory and his gains lasting?

[toodeep]

Nico is not the most dangerous to Harry, but he is one of the most dangerous villains in the book.  Nico's primary powers are that he is smart, resourceful, will almost certainly live to fight another day, and plays a deep game.  He is not the largest threat to Harry because he has never carried the grudge against Harry needed to be a big threat.  He's willing to fight Harry to make one of his schemes go off, but he has the resources to have hired the hellhound to assassinate harry but hasn't.  That kind of grudge would have made him more dangerous to Harry.  The truth is, Nico doesn't understand Harry as well as Marcone and Lara do, which is why they are in some ways more dangerous to him, because they can manipulate Harry in ways Nico can't. 

On the flip side of that statement, you can argue that a Denarian was the cause of his death in Changes, so maybe Nico is out to get him even in off-scheme events.  It's really not their fault he got better from that.

When Harry actually faces off against Nico, Nico isn't the most physically dangerous being present.  Harry has almost been defeated by Magog several times because he is a big bruiser.  No, Nico has the knowledge and the plan, and lets face it, he should have won several times.  He gave Harry the coin in one book - that should have eventually gotten Harry on his side.  He got Harry killed in Changes, and he faced off against Harry and a knight with three Denarians (one supercharged) in Skin Game which was a fight he should have won, except Harry had an ace up his sleeve and had learned more about fighting Denarians than probably any other mortal.

Two notes - I think there are some fallen who prefer to work with their mortals rather than dominate them.  This makes those fallen more dangerous and effective because they get to break some of the rules for immortals by using their mortal's free will.  Magog is the kind that crushes his mortal's will, Laciel is the kind that likes to work with them. 

Second note, the event that Mab was getting revenge for was for Nic breaking the accords in small favor.

[Walter the skull]

I don't think we've seen Nicodemus's A game.  In all of his appearances, he's had a mission, and Harry has just been a pain in his ass.  Harry hasn't been Nicodemus's main target. 

Sure killing Harry was on his list of things to do in Skin Game, but if Nic got the goods and Harry survived, i don't think he would've lost any sleep.

Also Harry has always had a knight or two with him when he faced Nic. 

[Snark Knight]

He's willing to fight Harry to make one of his schemes go off, but he has the resources to have hired the hellhound to assassinate harry but hasn't.  That kind of grudge would have made him more dangerous to Harry.

Hire assassins, anyway. Pretty sure Kincaid wouldn't work for the Nic under any circumstances. Based on their interaction in SmF, I think Kincaid would very much like an excuse to see exactly how much of an injury Nicodemus can regenerate from.

[ClintACK]

The problem with trying to evaluation Nic's effectiveness is that we rarely know what he's really trying to accomplish, either in the short term or in his two-thousand-year goal. (Is he trying to remove Lucifer, because the archangel was nemfected? Is God, like Mab with Maeve, unwilling to kill his most-beloved archangel, endangering Reality itself? Or is the nemfected still in Heaven -- was that why Lucifer rebelled? Or is Nic just crazy -- is his greater purpose a lie that Anduriel has sold him?)

We know that in Death Masks, he was testing out a way to use a holy faith object to power an evil curse -- and his test was a success. The fact that he didn't actually cause mass casualties with the curse, and that Harry took back the (fake) shroud doesn't change that -- those were secondary objectives. (As were recruiting Harry and killing Shiro.)

That test was a success, and in Skin Game, he got away with a much, much more powerful holy faith object. What evil can he power up with the Grail? And why would he want to -- what makes it worth the sacrifice of his greatest supporter?

Small Favor is even stranger -- the whole book is layer upon layer of hidden goals. He kidnapped Marcone in order to get access to the Archive. He kidnapped the Archive in order to get Thorned Namshiel to expose himself, or did he? And why was Lucifer willing to give them a massive hellfire cheat -- what was so important in the events of that book to make it worth giving Uriel the opening to gift Harry with Soulfire?

Was the massive hellfire pentacle another test? Is it a trick Nic will be using in the future

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either to give Dresden a binding circle around the Last Titan, or to surround large numbers of Outsiders so they can be banished like the cornerhounds?

The one big escalation we see over the course of the books is his recruitment of more and more powerful hosts for the coins. It really looks like most hosts have been just ordinary schmucks -- like Sanya the easily-manipulated angry youth. Even the spellcasters are fairly minor -- Cassius was a sorcerer for fifteen hundred years and was the weakest sidekick in Dead Beat.

In Death Masks, Nic makes a concerted effort to recruit Harry. In Small Favor, Nic is offering coins to the Archive and Marcone. In Skin Game, he's given coins to a powerful warlock and to the genoskwa, and is trying to recruit Grey. That's some serious escalation. And there's no reason he couldn't have been giving coins to more powerful mortals and scions all along, is there?

And in keeping with new Peace Talks information... wild speculation:

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With starborns appearing every 666 years, could Nicodemus be starborn? There's nothing that says a starborn has to end up a good guy (or even a guy). WAG starborn list: Nic, Rashid, Mavra, Harry+Elaine.

[Conspiracy Theorist]

Tessa liked ordinary smacks, Nick always sought out particular hosts.