Which mortal might become nemfected?

[Yuillegan]

Well as stated above by Kindler and others, there is no evidence at all that Mortal's cannot be infected by Nemesis. That is pure speculation, as it isn't even implied in any canon or WOJ. The theory behind it has been explained, and is understandable, but is a poor premise to build off. Which isn't saying it might not be true - but the jury is WAY out.

Q1:
Yes, and I believe it has already happened. As Arjan points out and I have theorized before, Nemesis cannot spread like an epidemic otherwise it probably would have. Which means targets have to fit quite specific criteria in order to become infected. Whilst I agree that many of the "bad" villains are not necessarily infected, I expect quite a few are. Perhaps even (at least) one per book.

Q2:
Likely already infected suspects include: Cowl, Elaine, Simon, Justin, Peabody, Kumori (assuming she isn't Elaine), Cristos, Tessa, Rosanna.

Possible already infected suspects: Victor Sells, Agent Denton, Leonid Kravos. Yes, Lily might be an unreliable source but so far is the only person to have actually pointed out suspects in the entire series (apart from the Mothers). But also because of their behaviour prior the taking on power. They started out good, but twisted against their nature. And from a purely Doylist POV - it makes sense that each case is connected in this series. Nemesis is the connection.

Possibly are/were/will be: Ebenezar, Rashid, the Merlin, OG Merlin, Harry's mother, Thomas, Marcone, Hendrics, Murphy, Molly, Nicodemus, any SC (but particularly LtW and Ancient Mai eventually).

And also, there is an excellent reason backed up by evidence WHY Peabody might have chosen to not infect the SC (assuming he was infected, and that he hasn't infected any of them already). The reason is that it might not have wanted to draw attention to itself (particularly with the Gatekeeper around) and so would only infect any of them as a last resort, despite their high value as targets. Maeve and Leah both failed to infect Mab (on balance of probabilities) and therefore there are clearly limits on how easy it is to infect a target.

Why target these individuals? Well SC for their obvious leverage in the supernatural community. Thomas both perhaps for his proximity to the leadership of the White Court AND potentially Harry. Murphy because of Harry. Molly - because she is Winter Lady and close to Harry. The Denarians - because of their power in the supernatural community. Most of it is pretty obvious.

What might be less obvious is why target the lesser individuals like Sells, Denton, Kravos etc. Perhaps Nemesis has a variety of multi-level intricate goals, perhaps it has a very simple goal. Perhaps it has to do with Harry, perhaps not. But considering Nemesis is considered a sapper, I think it is all about opening fully those big ol' Outer Gates. Then the Outsider forces rush in and destroy everything. And perhaps each individual it infects has a chance to help aid that primary objective. 

[g33k]

Well as stated above by Kindler and others, there is no evidence at all that Mortal's cannot be infected by Nemesis. That is pure speculation, as it isn't even implied in any canon or WOJ.

ABSOLUTELY CORRECT.

But also, and equally:  there is no evidence at all that Mortal's can be infected by Nemesis.

The theory behind it has been explained, and is understandable, but is a poor premise to build off.

Again:  equally correct.

I literally think it's a coin toss either way.  I see Doylist advantages AND disadvantages to Jim Butcher with either decision; I see in-canon arguments to be made that this or that is evidence one way or the other.

Anything built upon either supposition (mortals' immunity, or vulnerability) is the WAGiest of WAGs, being (imho) grounded on no more than the toss of a coin.


I am, BTW, providing coins (if anyone wants to toss 'em and WAG away!)...

What?  No, no, no hint of antiquity, silver or blackening... not at all...
 

[Mira]

     Well as stated above by Kindler and others, there is no evidence at all that Mortal's cannot be infected by Nemesis. That is pure speculation, as it isn't even implied in any canon or WOJ.


ABSOLUTELY CORRECT.

But also, and equally:  there is no evidence at all that Mortal's can be infected by Nemesis.

  There is however in the the person of Elaine and possibly Justin, that if the conditions are
right mortals can be carriers not unlike the knife was, of the infection.

[g33k]

... There is however in the the person of Elaine and possibly Justin, that if the conditions are right mortals can be carriers not unlike the knife was, of the infection.

Agreed!  It's one of my favorite WAGs.  I'd argue, in fact, that the Doylist case is VERY strong for Elaine:

• We actually SAW (on-screen!) when Lea got Nemfected.  I thing Elaine's story (of Justin's Enthrallment-spell, Harry's duel, and Elaine "breaking semi-free and running away confused and frightened") is actually us seeing, indirectly, Aurora's Nemfection, too.
• Nemfected-Elaine will be hard on Harry... and as we all know, being hard on Harry makes Jim Butcher cackle with maniacal glee.
• Writing critical scenes in ONE book, that we only understand in retrospect in LATER books, is also something that makes Jim Butcher cackle with maniacal glee; I think Elaine's telling is "gleeful" for Jim.

I don't think it's evidence either way, however, as to whether mortals can only be carriers, or can actually be "Nemfected" themselves.

Also, it primarily works for Elaine if Justin was himself a Nemvector; if Justin wasn't the vector for Elaine, then Elaine being a vector becomes vastly less explainable.  Either both are Nemvectors, or neither are.

[Avernite]

  There is however in the the person of Elaine and possibly Justin, that if the conditions are
right mortals can be carriers not unlike the knife was, of the infection.

Not sure I follow. All I know is that Aurora was nemfected, probably, and Elaine was around Aurora. But we don't know if Elaine took anything (beyond her amulet) to Aurora; maybe she did?

And there were others around Aurora too, like say some highly powerful second-in-command Fae like Talos, and we also have evidence elsewhere of second-in-command Fae infecting Ladies.

[Kindler]

Nemesis may not need an object to spread. It may be possible through some other means.

[Mira]

Not sure I follow. All I know is that Aurora was nemfected, probably, and Elaine was around Aurora. But we don't know if Elaine took anything (beyond her amulet) to Aurora; maybe she did?

And there were others around Aurora too, like say some highly powerful second-in-command Fae like Talos, and we also have evidence elsewhere of second-in-command Fae infecting Ladies.

  In my opinion it is significant that Justin had a connection with the Outsiders as we learned from
HWB in Ghost Story, further that Harry and Elaine were meant to be enforcers.  Also significant I think that Elaine ran to the Summer Court and shortly there after Aurora began to act a bit strange.
I believe there is a connection there,  also just because a mortal cannot become infected doesn't mean a mortal cannot be a vector for the infection.

[g33k]

Not sure I follow. All I know is that Aurora was nemfected, probably, and Elaine was around Aurora. But we don't know if Elaine took anything (beyond her amulet) to Aurora; maybe she did?

And there were others around Aurora too, like say some highly powerful second-in-command Fae like Talos, and we also have evidence elsewhere of second-in-command Fae infecting Ladies.

We presume that Nemfection is an Outsider thing.  The WAG is based on the theory that mortals can indeed be vectors of Nemfection.

So, what was happening right before Elaine went to the Summerfae?  Well two things:

• Harry fought an Outsider Summoned by Justin
• Elaine (says she) was fighting free of Justin's Mind-control

It looks an awful lot like Justin could have Nemfected Elaine with something Outsider-ish, in that!  The story Elaine tells story has some holes in it, if you aren't wanting to believe it (Harry wanted to believe Elaine hadn't betrayed him).  For example:

• Elaine claimed she was breaking free of Justin's spell; excuse me, but a semi-trained apprentice breaking free from a senior Warden???!?
• Elaine claimed she was still confused and mind-blurred, somewhat under the influence of Justin's spell... and yet, the semi-trained apprentice managed to open a Way to Summer, or to summon the Summer Lady?  That takes focus, which is the opposite of her claimed mental impairment.

Moreover, Justin --> Elaine --> Aurora is a known, visible conduit for the Outsiders to get to the Summer Lady.  Hypothetically, sure -- it could have been something else.  Talos (though we never see any hint of it), or another fae; or some object like the Athame (though no trace of a Summer-Nemfecting artifact is in canon).

So on the Watsonian hand, we have a viable channel that Jim has written, and on the Doylist hand we know this would be dramatic & emotionally-costly for Harry; and on the gripping hand, we have an offscreen / no-evidence hypothesis that "it could have happened this way, maybe."

[Yuillegan]

We presume that Nemfection is an Outsider thing.  The WAG is based on the theory that mortals can indeed be vectors of Nemfection.

Well that's a pretty safe bet. Yes, no one has outright said "This is the Outsider, Nemesis etc". But they hardly need to.

Rashid (who is the Gatekeeper to the Outside), and the Mothers (one of which has a primary purpose as being the power source for fighting Outsiders) both refer to it as the Adversary. They, like Titania, do not refer to it openly by that name (although they do hint that Nemesis is merely ONE of its names). This is perhaps because it is a danger to them as it (like Hades and other beings) can Hear when one of it's Names are used. Making them (though not necessarily the Mothers) targets.

It also shows up by name for the first time in a book that reveals a lot about the fight against the Outsiders, and is primarily about fighting the Outsiders. It appears to both be on Earth (in its hosts - whether controlled or merely carriers, assuming that is possible) AND it is Outside the Outer Gates, as Rashid and the Gates are required to check for it's presence. Harry deduces that it is a sapper, whilst He Who Walks Before (also called Gatebreaker) is a leader designed to smash through enemy lines and lead missions. Titania - Mab's opposite and twin - also knew exactly what it was, I suspect because they both share a certain amount of information from their mantles (and possibly because of their education from the Mothers etc). This information wouldn't be shared unless it was relevant to all Fae, and it is, because the Fae's true purpose is to protect Reality from the Outsiders, and to protect Humanity from itself.

Now there is the smallest amount of room for it to be some Outsider-aligned supernatural. But so far, almost no other Powers work with them willingly. They either seem to get corrupted or hate them equally. As we don't know what Outsiders actually are, this makes it hard to tell who might work with them and what their race/society/team are comprised of (if such terms makes sense in that context). Only those who hate the status quo seem to work with them, and it would appear all in the pursuit of either more power or general chaos. Outsiders seem to be fundamentally different in nature to beings of Reality, and are very scary because of that. They also seem to work together, which is pretty much unheard of for even the most unified groups this side of the Gates.

ABSOLUTELY CORRECT.
But also, and equally:  there is no evidence at all that Mortal's can be infected by Nemesis.
Again:  equally correct. *Not quite*

Except for Lily saying so - the only piece of text (canon or WOJ) that actually names individuals that are Mortal. Just remember that this has actually not yet been disproven. Again, everyone has called Lily unreliable etc - but as far as the canon of the books is concerned, what Lily told Harry is still true. Butcher may show us this was a misdirection or red herring but so far he has not. Unless someone can find some WOJ or actual evidence from the books that outright disproves it, then we cannot summarily rule it out.

The Mothers hinted at Aurora, Mab indicated Maeve and flatly told Harry about Leah, Leah told Harry about herself, Maeve accused Mab (but was infected herself), Cat Sith no one knew about until Harry worked it out. WOJ says Archangels by virtue of being Absolute, cannot be infected. It is unclear whether regular Angels can, however. And Harry implies that most of those he assumed were Black Council might actually be infected themselves and are not a formal organization at all by the sum of hosts of a magical sentient virus - which implicates Rosanna and Tessa, Cowl and Kumori, etc.

I literally think it's a coin toss either way.  I see Doylist advantages AND disadvantages to Jim Butcher with either decision; I see in-canon arguments to be made that this or that is evidence one way or the other.

Anything built upon either supposition (mortals' immunity, or vulnerability) is the WAGiest of WAGs, being (imho) grounded on no more than the toss of a coin.

I am, BTW, providing coins (if anyone wants to toss 'em and WAG away!)...

What?  No, no, no hint of antiquity, silver or blackening... not at all...
 

I get that, there are excellent reasons to go either way in the story. Time will tell how Jim chose to go, but at this stage nothing is ruled out. I'd love a coin - for purely academic reasons...

  There is however in the the person of Elaine and possibly Justin, that if the conditions are
right mortals can be carriers not unlike the knife was, of the infection.

I'm not sure what you are saying here...are you saying that there is evidence for infection, as there is evidence of Justin and/or Elaine being carriers? If so, I would love to hear it. It makes for an excellent theory but afaik there is no evidence that people can merely be carriers. They only thing we know of that was a carrier was the Athame (Morgana's). To answer your later response too - quite right, just because a mortal cannot be infected doesn't mean they cannot be a carrier. HOWEVER - there is no evidence they can be carriers, none in the text and none in WOJ. There is also no evidence that Mortals cannot be infected, text or otherwise. So let's all be clear when we start using absolutes in arguments, and support with appropriate evidence. Far too many theories have started from WAGs being taken as gospel, rather than using the evidence we do have. And yes, it is very significant that Justin has a strong connection to Outsiders. Especially considering that Harry and Elaine were both potential Starborn. And that Elaine ran to the Summer Court right before Aurora gets infected. But none of it is evidence for someone being a carrier of Nemesis.

Also g33k, you are quite probably right in that if Justin wasn't a carrier (assuming a Mortal can be), then it makes it much less likely that Elaine is. And I think you have summed up my exact thoughts on the Elaine being the one who infects Aurora. But then, wouldn't that mean that Justin had been planning things that took place many years later? And what does that say then if Elaine did in fact do it? Who was/is Elaine working for? Is Justin really...dead?

[Mira]

I'm not sure what you are saying here...are you saying that there is evidence for infection, as there is evidence of Justin and/or Elaine being carriers? If so, I would love to hear it. It makes for an excellent theory but afaik there is no evidence that people can merely be carriers. They only thing we know of that was a carrier was the Athame (Morgana's). To answer your later response too - quite right, just because a mortal cannot be infected doesn't mean they cannot be a carrier. HOWEVER - there is no evidence they can be carriers, none in the text and none in WOJ. There is also no evidence that Mortals cannot be infected, text or otherwise. So let's all be clear when we start using absolutes in arguments, and support with appropriate evidence. Far too many theories have started from WAGs being taken as gospel, rather than using the evidence we do have. And yes, it is very significant that Justin has a strong connection to Outsiders. Especially considering that Harry and Elaine were both potential Starborn. And that Elaine ran to the Summer Court right before Aurora gets infected. But none of it is evidence for someone being a carrier of Nemesis.

I am not a believer in coincidences,  this adds up too well to be just that...  That doesn't mean that Elaine was a willing carrier, but it doesn't mean that she wasn't used as one, or had any idea she was being used.  She was successfully enthralled by Justin, now did that just wear off once he was dead?  What HWB said to Harry in his flash back in Ghost Story says there is a lot more to see here, a plan.   However it all blew up because Harry, being a starborn, and face it, being Harry, didn't play, even at sixteen.

[123Chikadee]

I don't think mortals can get Nemfected, mainly b/c if they could, then the Outsiders could have won already. My WAG is this: since mortals have freewill, that give them a certain amount of protection from Outsiders, but there's a catch-22 here. Only mortal magic can summon Outsiders but mortals can't be nemfected. Black magic is a loophole that Outsiders can exploit, so that a person who's done black magic is more willing to do things like summon Outsiders. Maybe that's how people can be carriers, via black magic as opposed to straight up objects.
Though other beings who aren't mortal but have some degree of free will can also exploit loopholes, such as the Red and White Courts of vampires.
If a starborn can be a carrier, it could be entirely down to how much black magic they were exposed to. So for Elaine to be a kind of sleeper agent, either willing or unwilling, could work. It would explain how Aurora got infected. The only tricky thing with this part is just when Aurora got infected, like her plan could have been on her mind before but Elaine inadvertently infecting her just made her act on it?
I think in order for this WAG to work, Meave has to lie to Lily about how the infection works. It'd be a good strategy. Get everyone paranoid and too worried about who could be sick to unite. Though this also depends on how much Titania would have told Lily. Maybe a general outline and then Maeve filled in the gaps with plausible lies.
The people Lily named as Nemfected could have been really close to achieving the outsiders' goals, so maybe it was a distinction without a difference kind of scenario?
Since black magic leaves stains on people, I'd say that a person will always be a carrier so they'd have to be careful for the rest of their lives. But, it probably also has a bit more to it than just performing black magic. So Justin could have done the extra thing with Elaine but Harry dodged a bullet. I tend to doubt that Justin is still alive, but that's mainly b/c I'm not really feeling the 'he was alive the whole time!' idea.

[Arjan]

I think mortals with power can be infected and I think in turncoat the gatekeeper is checking out Harry for exactly that.   

[Yuillegan]

I am not a believer in coincidences,  this adds up too well to be just that...  That doesn't mean that Elaine was a willing carrier, but it doesn't mean that she wasn't used as one, or had any idea she was being used.  She was successfully enthralled by Justin, now did that just wear off once he was dead?  What HWB said to Harry in his flash back in Ghost Story says there is a lot more to see here, a plan.   However it all blew up because Harry, being a starborn, and face it, being Harry, didn't play, even at sixteen.

Not saying your theory is wrong, Mira. Just saying that it is in fact, a theory. Not a fact. An important distinction. I quite like the theory as it happens. But I am just being clear that one thing is not the other. Does that make sense?

I think in the earlier books I would have said if Justin had died, and sunlight had risen, then the enthrallment would have stopped. However if Justin did not fully die, or he anchored it to something like a person (like Maggie's death curse on Lord Raith...and remember she and Justin were allies once) then probably the enthrallment is still active. Assuming she actually was, in fact, enthralled. We only have Elaine's word for it. Harry just thought she willingly joined Justin. Who knows maybe she did, maybe she was infected. We shall see.

And you are assuming here that He Who Walks Behind's plan did actually backfire. As Lea actually points out in that scene, it takes a very careful approach to make a Wizard think using destruction and violence is okay. Perhaps he just allowed Harry to destroy him. And even if he didn't, the plan was still at the very least partially successful. One thing that is clear is he would have only killed Harry if Harry wasn't useful. A common theme of the books, and especially the monsters, is that if you don't survive their lessons (think Mother Winter to Harry in Cold Days) you deserve to die.

123Chikadee - Fair enough as a theory. And your WAG is interesting. Although wouldn't that mean the Gatekeeper and Winter etc need to be more involved against Black Magic? It seems they are not as concerned with Demon black magic and the Fallen.  And just to put it out there - all the supernatural types have some degree of Free Will. Otherwise they would be automatons. WOJ is that even angels had enough Free Will to Fall. And we have seen Uriel exercise his own Will, to a point.

The thing is - Mab knows how the infection happens. And we know it was the Athame. If it were so easy to infect a victim then why go to all that trouble with the Athame? And if people were such easy carriers via merely using Black Magic (as Harry has done btw) then wouldn't way more people be exposed - including Harry?

Arjan - I think the Gatekeeper, amongst others, have been watching Harry since he first was on the radar for such things. Those who really know about what's going on seem to take a keen interest in Harry. And pretty much all of them knew Harry's mother. No one seems as interested in Thomas either. I think the Gatekeeper even as early as Summer Knight may have suspected Harry of being infected. But yes that scene in Turn Coat on the dock (if that is what you are referring to) is a good example.

[Mira]

I don't think mortals can get Nemfected, mainly b/c if they could, then the Outsiders could have won already. My WAG is this: since mortals have freewill, that give them a certain amount of protection from Outsiders, but there's a catch-22 here. Only mortal magic can summon Outsiders but mortals can't be nemfected. Black magic is a loophole that Outsiders can exploit, so that a person who's done black magic is more willing to do things like summon Outsiders. Maybe that's how people can be carriers, via black magic as opposed to straight up objects.
Though other beings who aren't mortal but have some degree of free will can also exploit loopholes, such as the Red and White Courts of vampires.
If a starborn can be a carrier, it could be entirely down to how much black magic they were exposed to. So for Elaine to be a kind of sleeper agent, either willing or unwilling, could work. It would explain how Aurora got infected. The only tricky thing with this part is just when Aurora got infected, like her plan could have been on her mind before but Elaine inadvertently infecting her just made her act on it?
I think in order for this WAG to work, Meave has to lie to Lily about how the infection works. It'd be a good strategy. Get everyone paranoid and too worried about who could be sick to unite. Though this also depends on how much Titania would have told Lily. Maybe a general outline and then Maeve filled in the gaps with plausible lies.
The people Lily named as Nemfected could have been really close to achieving the outsiders' goals, so maybe it was a distinction without a difference kind of scenario?
Since black magic leaves stains on people, I'd say that a person will always be a carrier so they'd have to be careful for the rest of their lives. But, it probably also has a bit more to it than just performing black magic. So Justin could have done the extra thing with Elaine but Harry dodged a bullet. I tend to doubt that Justin is still alive, but that's mainly b/c I'm not really feeling the 'he was alive the whole time!' idea.

Didn't Maeve indeed lie to Lily?  That is the impression I got during the showdown in Cold Days.  Lily was such an innocent and so unsuited for the role she was forced into when the mantel of Summer Lady entered her body.  Maeve played her like a harp.

[Arjan]

Not saying your theory is wrong, Mira. Just saying that it is in fact, a theory. Not a fact. An important distinction. I quite like the theory as it happens. But I am just being clear that one thing is not the other. Does that make sense?

I think in the earlier books I would have said if Justin had died, and sunlight had risen, then the enthrallment would have stopped. However if Justin did not fully die, or he anchored it to something like a person (like Maggie's death curse on Lord Raith...and remember she and Justin were allies once) then probably the enthrallment is still active. Assuming she actually was, in fact, enthralled. We only have Elaine's word for it. Harry just thought she willingly joined Justin. Who knows maybe she did, maybe she was infected. We shall see.

We see with Peabody and Lucio that the brain manipulation actually needs maintenance. The mind will fight back, the locks won't hold forever.

Also I do not think that Justin, even with Bob's guidance, was as skilled as Peabody. If he just went for loyalty and violence then the loyalty bit would have become quite meaningless by now even if it held which I think is unlikely.

And you are assuming here that He Who Walks Behind's plan did actually backfire. As Lea actually points out in that scene, it takes a very careful approach to make a Wizard think using destruction and violence is okay. Perhaps he just allowed Harry to destroy him. And even if he didn't, the plan was still at the very least partially successful. One thing that is clear is he would have only killed Harry if Harry wasn't useful. A common theme of the books, and especially the monsters, is that if you don't survive their lessons (think Mother Winter to Harry in Cold Days) you deserve to die.

123Chikadee - Fair enough as a theory. And your WAG is interesting. Although wouldn't that mean the Gatekeeper and Winter etc need to be more involved against Black Magic? It seems they are not as concerned with Demon black magic and the Fallen.  And just to put it out there - all the supernatural types have some degree of Free Will. Otherwise they would be automatons. WOJ is that even angels had enough Free Will to Fall. And we have seen Uriel exercise his own Will, to a point.

The thing is - Mab knows how the infection happens. And we know it was the Athame. If it were so easy to infect a victim then why go to all that trouble with the Athame? And if people were such easy carriers via merely using Black Magic (as Harry has done btw) then wouldn't way more people be exposed - including Harry?

Infection and possession are really overlapping concepts. You could say that Harry was infected by Lasciel's shadow. Or possessed. To be possessed by Nemesis the outsider power has to get in and mingle with your own spirit. Using the power of the dagger probably triggers that.

The dagger is a safer carrier than a person and Mab keeps it on her person to guard it.

Arjan - I think the Gatekeeper, amongst others, have been watching Harry since he first was on the radar for such things. Those who really know about what's going on seem to take a keen interest in Harry. And pretty much all of them knew Harry's mother. No one seems as interested in Thomas either. I think the Gatekeeper even as early as Summer Knight may have suspected Harry of being infected. But yes that scene in Turn Coat on the dock (if that is what you are referring to) is a good example.

Yes, that one.