Proven Guilty speculation, because, why not?

[g33k]

... I'll make an observation.  The only chance Harry had against the eldest fetch was the Summer Fire he used.  His own fire spell wasn't working.  Did Mab intend for Harry to die?

I think Mab planned on Harry to go to Lily for help, and for Lily to "get clever" and give Harry some Summer Fire.  I'm not an ice-blooded immortal manipulator, and even I can see that much playing out ahead of time.  So it keeps Harry alive without Mab having to manifest overtly.

Harry's use of it on the Winter Well was not expected... but then... it's Harry, with new fire-toy, and a new kind of destruction to cause.  So it was kind of inevitable, really.

I think Mab may be sort of "blinkered" to certain Summer/Winter things, unable to look beyond certain conceptual frameworks, because of what she is (or she'd likely also have seen how likely it was for Harry "Building on Fire" Dresden to do that thing).  Mostly, she sees deeper and further and broader than any mortal.  On a (very!) few points... blinkers.
 

[morriswalters]

Harry throws Summer fire three times.  For those that are interested in these kind of things, Jim telegraphs what is going to happen back in the theater.  Lily uses a butterfly to kill a fetch.  And of course Jim has the butterfly flit in Harry's face when he begins the fight with the Scarecrow.  So I think she expected what Lily did and what Harry would do. Contrast what happens in Small Favors when using fire will hurt more than it helps.

[g33k]

... So I think she expected what Lily did and what Harry would do.

Yeah, that's what I thought too.  But that WoJ pretty strongly implies that Summerfiring the Winterwell was unexpected by Mab.

Lily's giving Summerfire... yeah, Mab saw that a mile away; she was counting on it (so her proto-Knight didn't get all Kudzutized).
 

[morriswalters]

Jim says any number of things. However the closer you look the less there is to see.  She's powerful enough to send the fetches, yet it is fairly obvious that they are summoned in attack two and three.  In the second attack we get a fleeting glimpse of the perp running away and Jim calls out familiar magic.  And better yet in the last attack, the one that gets Molly taken to Arctis Tor, someone kills the lights and alarms in the convention center. By sabotage.  And Harry is the one to send the fetches after Molly and has a Knight of The Crosses family attacked and daughter kidnapped. And then we have the attack at the Fool Moon garage.  And yet Jim says Mab had Molly brought to Arctis Tor.  What does that mean in context. 

[kbrizzle]

@morriswalters
I don’t know if that’s necessarily true regarding Summerfire being the only way Harry could take down Eldest Fetch, given how well he performed in the Faerie war in SK, & he was fresh off beating a bunch of necromancers.. I do believe that Mab was not expecting Harry to have access to Summerfire, or to use it differently if he did - this is one I believe Lily got past Maeve & Mab both (mostly since they weren’t expecting her to show any initiative of her own).

Since you’re in the camp that believes that Mab allowed the assault to happen & was actually in full control the whole time (except for the Nfected Maeve part), was Harry in any real danger against Eldest Fetch? Mab could presumably have dispatched it at any time since she had run the table at this time.

Instead my alternative theory to you is:
Maeve has convinced Mab that like Aurora, Lily too has been taken (which is possible given how long Aurora had Lily ‘kidnapped’ in SK & Maeve’s subsequent manipulations). This is why Mab places all her troops at the Summer border - she is expecting the next Nemesis attack to come from there, which is why she doesn’t attack the Ramps encroaching on her territory. Her actions unfortunately mandate that Summer must respond in kind, leading to the opening of PG.

Of course the attack comes from Winter, which catches Mab by surprise but she is able to power through it & defeat the assault on Arctis Tor. Once she had won, she figured out that Molly is also part of the BC’s play. Therefore she kidnaps Molly to get her out of the Black Council’s clutches since they have been clearly planning something involving her for a while. She has Molly brought to her stronghold which she has just won in a brutal fight (hence it is the safest place in Winter) - knowing that the Black council will send someone to rescue Molly, Mab puts Eldest Fetch in charge of guarding Molly - it will kill her if Molly is found to have been Nfected already.

Maeve tries to outplay Mab by sending Harry to get Molly back (either Harry dies trying to save Molly, or he saves her & removes her from Mab’s control, perhaps saving Lea on the way as a bonus). Like the caterpillar that Lea has guarding Harry’s apt from the NN attacks Harry in Changes, so too does Eldest Fetch - it simply doing what it was asked by Mab - guard the girl & kill anyone sent to ‘rescue’ her. Mab knows that Michael is fighting Outsiders in OR so he isn’t likely to come soon. Maeve was probably fine with Harry being given the Summerfire since it will further the fiction to Mab that the Nfected Lily has Harry under her thumb. She also is the one who speeds up time Tewary in the final seconds because she wants the returning  Winter armies to kill Harry - another reason why she is initially ok with Harry being given the butterfly.

Mab is relieved that Harry was sent since she knows that he is not Nfected, so allows the fight to take place - if Harry can’t dispatch Eldest Fetch, perhaps he is not yet ready to become the WK (Mab would step in presumably before Fetch kills Harry) - Harry will have much tougher opponents for what Mab has in mind. The Summerfire was unexpected, but it is what allowed Harry to win - like Odin says in CD, Harry has friends & needs them in order to survive what he is up against - Lily who likes Harry a lot personally & feels bad about manipulating him gives him the butterfly to accomplish 2 things - attack the Wellspring &, save himself. Maeve is peeved when she realizes what Lily has done, which allows Harry & his cohort to be saved before the arriving Winter armies can destroy him.

[morriswalters]

@morriswalters
I don’t know if that’s necessarily true regarding Summerfire being the only way Harry could take down Eldest Fetch - given how well he performed in the Faerie war in SK, & he was fresh off beating a bunch of necromancers.. I do believe that Mab was not expecting Harry to have access to Summerfire, or to use it differently if he did - this is one I believe Lily got past Maeve & Mab both (mostly since they weren’t expecting her to show any initiative of her own).

Since you’re in the camp that believes that Mab allowed the assault to happen & was actually in full control the whole time (except for the Nfected Maeve part), was Harry in any real danger against Eldest Fetch? Mab could presumably have dispatched it at any time since she had run the table at that point.



We’ve argued before about this - if Mab was

No book before or after this one has so many loose ends.  It's very hard to come up with a scenario that puts Harry at Arctis Tor that don't have Mab playing puppeteer.  The Black Council shows up with a team and major Hellfire, maybe with Lucifer's aid, and speculating as to how far they got, the only answer that works, is not very far at all.  Harry shows up with Thomas, Murphy, Charity and himself. And gets an invitation to the penthouse.  And Mab winks at him on the way out.

Now look at the other side of the coin.  Three attacks at the Con.  The first is different then the other two. Mainly in that nobody gets killed.  Drop the lights and go to work at that point and the fetches could have had a field day.  But they're in and out, no myrk, no flickering lights, and Nelson's only hazard is making a mess by moving too quick.  The only conceivable reason for that attack it to make sure that the theater was empty.  With a stretch gosl of keeping Harry from killing himself with LC.

About Lily and Maeve.

“That is one way to describe it,” Lily said quietly. “I would not, myself, interpret it that way. I had no part in bringing the fetches here—but their presence and their capture of Lady Charity’s daughter presented us with an opportunity to temporarily neutralize the presence of Mab’s forces upon our borders.”

I not we.  It only becomes us later in the paragraph.  A suspicious mind would infer that Maeve sent the fetches.  And Lily has done this, look the other way while bad things happen, at Maeve's behest before, in Cold Days.

[kbrizzle]

I disagree about the assault not getting very far - Harry explicitly states while examining the damage on his way to the ‘penthouse’ that an entire section of remains are from Mab’s personal guard who died defending her way to the Wellspring. That and the fact that Mab, Molly & Eldest Fetch are the only beings alive in Arctis Tor when Harry & co. take their field trip there makes me think that Mab won a costly victory that required her to retreat to the stronghold within her castle.

So are you saying that Mab was responsible for the first attack on the Con & Maeve for the other 2?

[morriswalters]

Well, the attack is over.  Whatever had happened was finished and Thorned Namshiel was gone.  If there was no one there but Mab and the fetches, then it was because that was the way Mab wanted it.  And there is no indication that they ever got close to the Wellspring.  I can infer what the attack was about.  It wasn't a plot by Nic, in Small Favor he is shocked when he hears.  So some variation of the Black Council.  One of the first things Eb asks Harry to do is

Find out why the Sidhe haven’t gone to war.

The attacks in Dead Beat are the only explanation for why Mab doesn't retaliate.  And as such accomplished their goal.

So are you saying that Mab was responsible for the first attack on the Con & Maeve for the other 2?

Three counting the one at the Fool Moon Garage.  I don't like having to look at what Jim has written and parse the words for that kind of nuance, but certainly Lily could have said, we didn't send the fetches, rather than I didn't.  And in hindsight we know the whole Mab is nuts thing is a ploy by Maeve encouraged by the adversary.

[Kindler]

I assumed the Black Council's assault on Arctis Tor was an attempt to release Lea, so Infected Lea might be able to corrupt the Well.

[morriswalters]

What question is asked by Eb at the beginning?  Why didn't Mab attack the Reds?  Because somebody with testicles that drag the ground blew the portcullis at Arctis Tor to flinders.

Lily nodded. “Like us, she fears Mab’s recent madness.” She turned back to me. “I provided you with power enough to threaten the wellspring, in the hope that you would draw some portion of Winter back into its own demesnes. Once that was done, Maeve altered the passage of time relative to the mortal realms.”

The time effect is the reason why the raid could have been nothing more than a feint.  There wouldn't have been time with all of faerie coming hell bent for leather, to do much else.  However Lily's butterfly almost accomplished it anyway.

What should intrigue you is the portal at the theater.  Can you imagine that the ways into Arctis Tor are any less difficult to open then the ways to Hades? 

[nadia.skylark]

What should intrigue you is the portal at the theater.  Can you imagine that the ways into Arctis Tor are any less difficult to open then the ways to Hades?

Well, the portal opened up a good distance from Arctis Tor and then they had to walk. It's not like it opened up inside the walls.

[kbrizzle]

@morriswalters
Regarding Winter & Summer not attacking the Ramps - I gave you an alternative & plausible theory as to why - Maeve lies to Mab about Lily being Nfected.
The theory you are proposing would require Mab to remain in a destroyed Arctis Tor alone for a year (or a long time anyway given the flow of time in Faerie) with no front gates anymore, & it would only be her defending the entire city - given that the Black Council is not vanquished, this would be extraordinarily ballsy of her given everything that has happened. She wasn’t able to kill the wielder of hellfire for a while later (even then Michael did it) so he’s certainly out there during the events of PG, not to mention the other BC agents scattered throughout the world. On top of that, she sends away her army to stymie Summer as well which ends up helping the Ramps & BC in the short-term - what would be the purpose of this?
Convincing the world that she was crazy would not suffice - what is the benefit? Clearly her true enemies wouldn’t underestimate her since by your theory, she handily won the attempted assault on Arctis Tor.
Also why would Mab be pressured to send help during DB? It seems pretty clearly to be the responsibility of the White Council, who end up sending a team & deputizing Harry to stop it. I don’t understand the link you are drawing between the Arctis Tor assault & the timing of DB... the only thing we can infer is that the attack happened after she appeared in place of Lea in DB.

Regarding Maeve being behind the latter 3 attacks including Fool Moon garage - why would the Scarecrow kill Glau first then? If anything it should’ve struck at Thomas or Harry since Madrigal & Glau were doing things beneficial to Nfected Maeve? Glau is even suspected of being a BC agent.
On the whole, I like your point about both Mab & Maeve being responsible for different attacks though, it makes sense.

[morriswalters]

Also why would Mab be pressured to send help during DB? It seems pretty clearly to be the responsibility of the White Council, who end up sending a team & deputizing Harry to stop it. I don’t understand the link you are drawing between the Arctis Tor assault & the timing of DB... the only thing we can infer is that the attack happened after she appeared in place of Lea in DB.

Not Dead Beat, the events happening off page in Dead Beat.  The attack on Cairo.

"We had many wounded," Luccio said. "So many wounded. As soon as the Senior Council was able to open the ways into the Nevernever, we retreated to the paths through Faerie. And we were pursued."
I sat up straight. "What?"
Morgan nodded. "The Red Court followed us into the territory of the Sidhe," he said.
"They had to know," I said quietly. "They had to know that by pressing the attack in Faerie itself they would anger the Sidhe. They've just declared war on Summer and Winter alike."

And that group of Wardens was five, not counting Harry.  In the attack 200 Wardens died leaving the White Council 50.  And 45000 mortals in the Congo.  This is my link to the attack at Arctis Tor.  This was to keep the Sidhe out of the game so the vamps could destroy the Senior Council and in one strike end the war.  While everybody was doing that, Cowl was trying to raise himself to Godhood.

Edit

I'm having a hard time accepting your premise that Lily as a character had enough menace to make Mab feel threatened enough to defer action against the Reds.  And it's hard to see Mab believing that Titania would let Lily use the troops of Summer to lead an attack against Winter, given that they hold each other in check.  So what threat does Lily hold sufficient to Mab's response prior to the attack on Arctis Tor?

How do you account for the portal at  the theater and the attack on Pell?  The WOJ posted earlier has Jim saying that Mab brought Molly to Arctis Tor.  It also seems obvious that that Black Council attack was launched through a portal. We either have to assign Mab the title of cretin or we have to assume that Mab didn't think she could be attacked because she controls portals to her domain as Hades controls his.  The theater portal is used to transport Molly since the fetches don't need it.  This supports my premise that the attack on Pell was about that portal.  It got Molly to Arctis Tor.

The question I can't answer is did the Black Council use this portal to launch their attack?  The timing is suggestive without being definitive assuming my premise. The Con was setup at about the time that I posit the attack occurred.  The Con's theme would have been conducive to setting up the conditions for the portal to link to deep Winter.  This setup would have required the participation of a Queen of Faerie.  Which is why I pointed out earlier that there are three Queens.

The weakness to my WAG is explaining why Molly was led into Black Magic.

[kbrizzle]

@morriswalters
I think one of the issues is that we don’t know if Mab ordered her troops to the Summer border before or after the assault on Arctis Tor.
You seem to think that she does it after the assault - why? By doing this, she effectively locks up Summer’s troops for nearly a year as well, giving the Ramps free passage during that time, while she stays undefended at Arctis Tor.
There is a fair amount of evidence that the events of PG were set up a year ago (like the Summer/Winter army stalemate, Molly getting in trouble etc), showing that this is Plan B for the Black Council since one of their own didn’t become a necro-god.
An issue with your theory regarding the BC assault being launched through the portal at the Con would be that it places that assault on Arctis Tor on my timeline of it happening & not a year ago like you are positing.

My theory is that Mab placed her troops at the border before the assault - the only reason for this would be that she had a strong suspicion that the biggest threat to her purpose would come from that direction. This would make sense if Maeve lies to Mab, telling her that Lily is likely Nfected - Maeve would be able to convince Mab of the ‘danger’ posed by Lily because Maeve is manipulating a lot of Lily’s actions. Remember, Aurora was almost able to start a Faerie war by having her own Knight killed - she didn’t need to move any troops around. Titania is clearly in mourning for Aurora & not all that interested in the fate of the world as seen in CD. So Mab, convinced by Maeve that the Nfected Lily is setting plans in motion to threaten Winter, places her troops at the Summer border, leaving Arctis Tor fairly light on defense. This gives the BC the opening they need to attack, when they think Mab has been lulled into a false sense of security.
This also answers the question regarding everyone’s interest in Molly - believing that Lily has been Nfected, Mab decides to replace her with Molly (hence the seemingly throwaway line in CD where she tells Harry that she’d originally considered Molly to “be a better candidate for Summer”). Maeve of course leaks this to the Black Council, who decide to Nfect Molly for real. This is why Mab whisks Molly back to Arctis Tor as soon as she is able.

Regarding the portal - I mean there is one explanation - Maeve can also create portals to Arctis Tor. There is no evidence that Mab can control portal-access to her realm, or that Hades can - I think this is one of the benefits of free will. If they could, why would they need defenses or guardians?
Also why would Mab need a portal to get Molly back to Arctis Tor? Surely she can just appear wherever she wants, unless you’re suggesting that every time Mab comes to Chicago she enters through Pell’s theater? We also know from SK that there are portals to Winter in Undertown.
The attacks on the Con have been planned a year in advance - this is why Darby Crane was invited back then - he was always going to be the fall guy for this.
An alternative reason for the attacks could be to keep Harry & Michael busy trying to solve them while the BC is able to go about its business. This theory is admittedly light, because I do believe that more was going on with the attacks, especially with your points about the portals.

[morriswalters]

Not feeling up to snuff but this one is fairly easy.

There is no evidence that Mab can control portal-access to her realm, or that Hades can - I think this is one of the benefits of free will. If they could, why would they need defenses or guardians?

In Cold Days Mab locks the borders of her realm so no one can leave giving Harry a head start. Location 1444 of the Kindle Version. I'm not going to quote it now, maybe later when I answer the rest of your post.  I will tell you what I speculate.  I think we will find out that portal magic is part of the function of the Outer Gates.