Re-interpreting the events of Small Favor

[Avernite]

Keep in mind that Nic didn't break the accords until he kidnapped the neutral arbiter (i.e. the Archive).  He had a two step plan. 

1.  Take marcone.  valuable in his own right and doesn't negatively impact Nic

2.  If, and only if, the archive is invoked, then break the accords to get the Archive.  This would have been worth it, in his opinion.  Keep in mind, he thought he had Lasciel as a hole card corrupting Harry.  We now also know that taking the Archive wouldn't just have gotten him all the knowledge of the archive, but also the true ventori who fight the oblivion war at the Archives direction.  He would have been able to give them orders they would have believed would be necessary for the oblivion war, but that really could have just served his own ends.

He didn't break the Accords, but he already invoked Lucifer thereby breaking the Rules. To me it seems that Nic and Anduriel would find the Rules (eternally bound up in the conflict of Heaven and Hell) much mor important than the Accords (ephemereal product of the current strength of Mab and the other rules-lawyering parts of the supernatural community).

[forumghost]

Breaking those rules has different (and less immediately dangerous) consequences to breaking the accords.

Loosey Goose giving them a supply of Hellfire only lets Mr Sunshine give a supply of Soulfire to someone in response- which is not something that has a great deal of impact on the Denarians really.

Heck the only thing Harry does with it in that book is beat up Namshiel, which had very limited effect all told, seeing as how Nick got the Archive anyway.

[Avernite]

Breaking those rules has different (and less immediately dangerous) consequences to breaking the accords.

Loosey Goose giving them a supply of Hellfire only lets Mr Sunshine give a supply of Soulfire to someone in response- which is not something that has a great deal of impact on the Denarians really.

Heck the only thing Harry does with it in that book is beat up Namshiel, which had very limited effect all told, seeing as how Nick got the Archive anyway.

As Harry and Uriel did indeed discuss, Uriel took a longer view. Nic proved penny-wise pound-foolish in his breach of the Rules. Which is unlike him, given he plays the long game.

So what I suggest is the Archive was always the target. Trading Harry-with-Soulfire for Archive-Denarian is a good long-term deal. Trading Harry-with-Soulfire for Marcone-Denarian is a poor trade.

[Arjan]

But he was not thinking about soulfire Harry, he was still counting on denarian Harry. Nicodemus strategy was based on it and it nearly got him killed.

Correcting autocorrupt,

[forumghost]

Exactly, it's hardly fair to discount Nick not knowing that Harry would do what nobody has ever done before and corrupt the shadow of a fallen angel instead of the other way around.

You need to remember that Nick doesn't really go for a single objective. He's smarter then that. Instead he has a 'main objective', a 'good enough' and a/several 'bonus points'

Nicks plan was to target Marcone because he was vulnerable, but also important enough that he knew Mab would need to respond. So:

In the unlikely even that Mab doesn't get Harry involved in this mess, Nick still gets Marcone (small win, but he'll take it)
In the far more probable event that Harry gets dragged in, Ivy will get pulled along as a Neutral Arbiter and he can grab her (His actual Goal)
And ff possible, he can drag Harry onto his side (His Bonus Goal)
Things only went wrong for him because:

A) He got greedy and overextended when Harry threw Fid on the table.
B) He didn't expect that Harry would have found a way around his safety net by turning Lash on her Creator (and subsequently dying).

To Compare, look at Skin Game:

Nicks 'Small Win' was to grab the Grail (Which he did)
His 'Big Win' was the other Artifacts (Which he missed on)
And his Bonus objectives were Harry Dying and Destroying the Swords.

[Bad Alias]

As Harry and Uriel did indeed discuss, Uriel took a longer view. Nic proved penny-wise pound-foolish in his breach of the Rules.

Satan, Lucifer himself, proved penny-wise pound-foolish in his breach of the Rules. It was Lucifer who fueled the "Signs" that were used to capture Marcone and Ivy.

[morriswalters]

In the unlikely even that Mab doesn't get Harry involved in this mess, Nick still gets Marcone (small win, but he'll take it)

I croaked, “Titania wants Marcone dead?”
“Put simply,” she replied. “And her Emissary will continue to seek your death. Only by finding and saving the Baron’s life will you preserve your own.”

It seems pretty clear.  Which is not to say that Nic didn't have his own agenda, but apparently Marcone's destination was a slab. The only reason he didn't die at his safe house was that Summer wanted the time to pot shoot at Harry.  And since Marcone has never run up against Titania there only seems to be one possible reason she would want him dead.

[Avernite]

But he was not thinking about soulfire Harry, he was still counting on denarian Harry. Nicodemus strategy was based on it and it nearly got him killed.

Correcting autocorrupt,

Sure, he didn't think specifically 'Uriel will respond by giving Harry something which I cannot counter' but he still gave Uriel the chance to intervene in a major way. I am not sure what equivalents Uriel could have deployed instead to compensate if Harry was still vulnerable to Lash's shadow, but probably quite serious too.

So to go over the below (not sure how multi-quote works here):

In the unlikely even that Mab doesn't get Harry involved in this mess, Nick still gets Marcone (small win, but he'll take it)
In the far more probable event that Harry gets dragged in, Ivy will get pulled along as a Neutral Arbiter and he can grab her (His actual Goal)
And ff possible, he can drag Harry onto his side (His Bonus Goal)

In the unlikely event that Mab doesn't get Harry involved in this mess, Uriel still gets to smack down hard in exchange for at best getting Marcone (high risk low reward).
In the far more probable event, he expects to get Ivy in too (His actual goal, but still risky because Uriel still gets to strike back - high risk, high reward, included Harry bonus goal).

[kbrizzle]

I disagree with a couple of assumptions in this thread:

• How are we so sure that by giving the Archive a Coin, Nic would be able to subvert the Archive’s nature? The coin would only affect the human Ivy, not the limitations put by the magic of the Archive. Not to mention that the millennia of knowledge & personalities inhabiting the Archive would be able to deal with the Shadow more effectively than Harry. This is why Nemesis is so powerful - it is able to subvert such limitations. Now I suspect that whatever Coin Ivy would have received would be Nfected (unbeknown to Nic)
• How are we so sure that Harry got Soulfire as a result of the attack on Marcone? I’d always read it as Harry got Soulfire for successfully refusing Lash’s offer for 3-4 years - it was a reward for not Falling to temptation.

[Arjan]

Uriel can not just hand out rewards l, that would be against the rules. The opposition breaking the rules made it possible for Uriel to do something compensating. Resisting Lasciel made Harry a proper target for Uriels action.

[dspringer1]

Also the Archive is an objectively bad choice for mediator here if you think about it. You essentially have 2 smaller powers fighting each other - the best arbiter would be a larger power with the means to enforce their judgement - there is no way Ivy + Kincaid could take on all the Denarians united. The situation was reversed during the duel between Harry & Ortega, where 2 of the largest powers needed a smaller matter mediated - also Ivy + Kincaid could take on Ortega & his vassals if need it (and they did).

I think you are misunderstanding the role of the arbiter.   Their role is to be a neutral party to resolve the issue of the accords.  They must be a significant power (as they are a member of the accords) and presumably neutral in the specific conflict.   The arbiter would certainly act to enforce the rules of the duel, but is not some supernatural police force.   Their role is primarily to witness the duel, make a good faith effort to enforce the rules of the duel -- and (a clearly lesser priority) punish any who break the rules.   The threat she made at the beginning with the mordite was to discourage rule breaking, not eliminate the possibility. 

Once Ortega got away, she communicated to the accord members the results of the duel, including Ortega's breaking of the rules.  It is up to the accord members to enforce the rules - which Ebenezer did by killing Ortega.   The Archive's role was not complete.

Not if she feels Ortega's actions shamed her in some way, the archive might choose to get revenge.  But revenge (or justice) is not a expected duty of the mediator. 

[Bad Alias]

How are we so sure that Harry got Soulfire as a result of the attack on Marcone? I’d always read it as Harry got Soulfire for successfully refusing Lash’s offer for 3-4 years - it was a reward for not Falling to temptation.

I was talking about this with my brother. My guess is that Harry has access to soulfire because he had access to hellfire. As Bob says, soulfire and hellfire are essentially the same thing. (Chapter 46). Harry just didn't know he had access to it. Uriel "nudged" Harry, showing him he had access to soulfire.

Small Favor, Chapter 30, Harry describing what happened to him that resulted in the use of soulfire:

It felt something like that-A tiny but critically timed nudge just as I threw my will into a last futile effort of defiance."

We do know that Uriel did something with Harry to allow him to use soulfire, and that it was likely because in reaction to what Lucifer did. Conversation with "Jake" in Chapter 46:

"You gotta think that maybe there's a matter of balance, here," [Jake] said. "Maybe one archangel invested his strength in this situation overtly and immediately. Maybe another one was just quieter about it. Thinking long-term. Maybe he already gave you a hand."
My right hand erupted into pins and needles again.

We also know that it had something to do with resisting Lash. About five of paragraphs later:

"'The burned hand teaches best,'" I read aloud. ... "What the hell is that supposed to mean?"
[Mab via Grimalkin]: "That your experience with resisting the shadow of the Fallen One has garnered the respect of the Watchman, my Emissary."

[ff88]

So, correct me if I'm wrong but itnt mentioned in passing that Lucifer himself worked on some of MARCONI more complex bindings? Not that I think that Lucifer or the White God will be on screen players til the BAT, but it is worth noting.

[toodeep]

Keep in mind, there may have been fall back plans in case abducting Marcone failed to get Harry involved that just never got realized because Harry fell for plan 1.  Heck after converting Marcone, if Harry still wasn't involved Marcone (or Nick) could have just directly challenged Harry to a duel like Ortega did and necessitate an arbiter again to draw in the Archive.  And then probably a fall back plan if that doesn't work.  I mean, you do not work to get literally every Denarian in the world together in one place and cooperating and then go, "whoops, I guess that didn't work, everyone go home, chaos cancelled."  Something big was going to happen no matter what Harry did.

[Bad Alias]

So, correct me if I'm wrong but itnt mentioned in passing that Lucifer himself worked on some of MARCONI more complex bindings? Not that I think that Lucifer or the White God will be on screen players til the BAT, but it is worth noting.

Lucifer powered both of the "Signs." One that trapped Marcone and one that trapped Ivy.