Re-interpreting the events of Small Favor

[kbrizzle]

Using the knowledge gleaned in the later books, I re-visited this one to understand what was really going on.

From what I can tell, the Black Council's goal was to waylay Mab's future plans involving Marcone & weaken the Unseelie Accords. However I find the reasons why Nicodemus & Titania want to be involved in this book puzzling.

Why does Nic go along with this plan?
I understand that he feels that he needs to get back at Marcone for the "insult" given to him in Death Masks, & I'm sure having a Signatory to the Accords under his influence are important to him, but are these really enough for him to work with Tessa again, and go to "corporate" for support with the greater circle? We know that Nic hasn't worked with Tessa for nearly 700 years, is this really important enough for that?

I find it hard to believe that the plan to capture Marcone was expressly set up to capture the Archive - I believe this was opportunistic. The Denarians had no way of knowing that (a) Mab would use Harry in this case (likely since it was in Chicago, but Nic/ Anduriel would know that Harry hates Marcone) or (b) Even if Mab involves Harry, that he would reach out to Ivy instead of the White Council to mediate this dispute. Even if Harry doesn't trust the Council, he trusts Ebenezer, Rashid & probably Injun Joe & Luccio as well. Its possible that Nic & Anduriel had been spying on Harry enough to conjecture that he would call on Ivy, but the question becomes, why now? Why not go after Ivy when she was even younger & less able to defend herself?

The only explanation I can come up with is that Nic wants to know if Mab is Nfected, insane or weak. In Skin Game we see that Nic has a cause he is seemingly devoted to (perhaps fighting Nemesis in his own way) - if knows the true purpose of the Winter Court (guard the Gates), and he is hearing on the supernatural grapevine that Mab may be crazy, perhaps he cares enough to invest some real effort in finding this out. I wouldn't be surprised if this is what Tessa used to convince him to join.

Why does Titania oppose Mab in this instance?
From what I can understand, the Summer Court exists to keep the Winter Court in check - i.e. make sure they are not distracted by matters not pertinent to guarding the Gates & in doing so, sparing most of the world from Winter's cruelty. By sending Harry to rescue Marcone, Mab is simply trying to enforce her own Accords, which I'm assuming Summer is also a Signatory of - so why would Titania send the Gruffs to stop Harry from being able to do this?

In the only hint of an explanation we see is in Cold Days where Titania is shown to be ridiculously angry with Harry - she says that without Eldest Gruff's counsel (whom Harry met at the very end of the book), she would not have moved on at all. So perhaps this was her focusing her wrath upon Harry before Eldest Gruff is able to calm her down.


The Black Council's plan is a little easier to fathom -

• Kidnap Marcone - ruin Mab's future plans

• The Black Council/ Maeve learn that Mab has big plans for the newly created Baron of Chicago & use their allies in the Denarians to abduct him, putting extreme effort into bypassing Marcone's security. I would not be surprised if the Denarians' plan was to give the captured Marcone an Nfected coin, or just kill him to remove him from play
• As we see in Skin Game, Mab has plotted for years to find a way to get the weapons in Hades' vault. The way she chooses is to support Marcone's bank for the supernatural, which accomplishes 2 goals - it severely punishes Nic for screwing with the Accords & it gains her entry into Hades' vault so Harry can retrieve the 5 artifacts/ weapons. Marcone is crucial to this plan working.

• Kidnap Marcone - weaken the Unseelie Accords

• The overarching plot of the series so far is that Nemesis is attempting to take over by breaking the supernatural alliances that keep the various powers from fighting each other in self-destructive wars. The way it chooses to do so is by weakening the Unseelie Accords, which were sponsored by the Winter Court - meaning that unless Winter is able to enforce the terms of the Accords, why should anyone obey?
• The seeming inability of Mab to go after the Red Court for violating her own passages is the plot of Proven Guilty - this signals to all the other powers that Mab may not be as strong as she was when the Accords were signed. We see that by White Night even the likes of Lara Raith are testing the Unseelie Accords (Harry points out that Lara had kidnapped a bunch of little folk to deliberately give the Winter Court a minor insult to see what they would do - which is nothing, since Mab has more important things to worry about)
• The Black Council uses its agents in the Denarians to convince them to kidnap Marcone. As I mentioned above, I believe Ivy's involvement was simply a bonus. If Mab is unable to stop 1 Signatory from simply grabbing another, it would signal to the rest of the supernatural world that the Accords were no longer in being adhered to, & with the White Council fighting an expensive war of attrition, everyone was fair play.

[morriswalters]

The Denarians did a lot of work to hold Ivy at Demonreach.  That couldn't have been done on the fly, it had to take some time wouldn't you think?  And if you kill or corrupt the archive the Oblivion War would be lost.

[Kindler]

Personally, I think if Harry had tried to bring in the White Council, Nic would have rejected the idea. Then he could have insisted on a neutral third party, and eventually suggested the Archive if Harry didn't.

I think he worked with Tessa and her crew to find out if she was their "own Judas." And working with her brought him the opportunity to influence or dominate the Archive.

I think a better question about Summer is this: how did they know that Harry was Winter's Emissary several hours before Mab went to him? The Gruffs hit the Carpenter house right away, and it's not till the wee hours of the morning that Harry runs into Mab on the way back from Marcone's blown-up hideout. Not only that, but there wasn't even a breach of the Unseelie Accords until after the first Gruff attack, which seems entirely unprovoked, now that I think about it: Marcone hadn't been taken yet, unless I remember things wrong.

[morriswalters]

(b) Even if Mab involves Harry, that he would reach out to Ivy instead of the White Council to mediate this dispute.

The White Council couldn't mediate, Harry is a member.  And the only neutral party that Harry is knows of is the archive.  Only a signatory nation can lodge the protest.  The only two other signatories in town at the time were Marcone and the Denarians.  If you don't count Summer.

I think a better question about Summer is this: how did they know that Harry was Winter's Emissary several hours before Mab went to him?

Titania wanted Harry dead  But that debt lay at Mab's feet since Harry was acting for Winter.  Snatching Marcone was meant to get Mab to do just what she did.  Enlist a mortal champion.  Being how she was in the middle of a torture session with the current Knight.  Who you gonna call?  Harry is where he always is, the last to know.  Everybody was using somebody.  Marcone was Titania, the Archive was Nic.  Harry was everybody's chew toy. Titania's appoints Nic her emissary, and has him breech the Accords by snatching Marcone.  Mab goes to her Knight in waiting.  Harry is now fair game.  This starts the shot clock.  This suits Nic since it will bring the Archive out of cover to where she can be taken.  He brings in everybody because he expects the Archive to be unhappy.  Thirteen dead Nickleheads later, he is proven correct. 

Harry sending Eldest Gruff to Chicago for a doughnut ran out the shot clock and ended the mayhem.  Leaving nobody happy.  Eldest Gruff calms down the Summer Queen in time and Mab burns Nick in Skin Game.  I don't know that's what went down but it's good enough for me.   Nic actually got forked twice counting Tessa's early departure.

[dspringer1]

My own perspective
1) Nic recruits only the best agents (aka - quality).  Recruiting Marcone would be a coup for Nic, although obviously it would be very difficult as the coin must be picked up willingly.  Then again, Nic tortured Harry and waved the coin as a way to escape the torture when he tried to recruit Harry.   It is possible that Nic was playing the same game with Marcone.

2) Nic clearly wanted Harry involved.   He thought Harry was resisting Lasciel and needed another push.  Nic clearly wanted Harry to commit to the Fallen side. 

3) IF Harry was involved, it is logical that the Archive would also be involved.  Harry sticks close to the people he knows and Nic has spent centuries learning how to study his enemies and use their habits against them.   


The big question in my mind is the archive.   On one hand, corrupting the archive would be a huge coup.  Because every archive from that point on would have the memories of a corrupted archive tempting them to also take up a coin.  Especially when the archive first passes on, that might be a lot of temptation.   It would also give a great deal of power to the fallen.  The Archive has information that could accelerate Armageddon tremendously and Nic is clearly playing the Armageddon game.   

However, the true purpose of the Archive is as a defense against ancient and dark gods.  Compromising that defense would potentially introduce a bunch of competitors to the Armageddon game.  I doubt Nic benefits much from somebody else winning the Armageddon game. 

My guess is that Nic is playing the odds.   Either the attempt will fail and his ex-wife gets a big enemy or it fails when the archive goes insane or it fails and the the dark gods come back.   Or it succeeds.   I can totally see him seeing that the odds of success are decent and the odds of a really bad outcome failure low.   That sounds like a gamble he is willing to make.   

[kbrizzle]

@morriswalters & dspringer

My big issue with the Denarians basing their entire plan on Mab choosing Harry as her emissary, and then Harry choosing the Archive as the arbiter is that so much can wrong. Mab more or less offers Harry an out at the very beginning - if he takes up the mantle of Winter Knight, she will pick another to be her representative in this matter. How does Nic know that Harry will refuse (after all, he takes Mab up a couple of books later) - enough to base a complex plan involving Hell & his wife on this?

Also the Archive is an objectively bad choice for mediator here if you think about it. You essentially have 2 smaller powers fighting each other - the best arbiter would be a larger power with the means to enforce their judgement - there is no way Ivy + Kincaid could take on all the Denarians united. The situation was reversed during the duel between Harry & Ortega, where 2 of the largest powers needed a smaller matter mediated - also Ivy + Kincaid could take on Ortega & his vassals if need it (and they did).

@dspringer

I do think it is significant that both times we see Ivy in person are during the first 2 Denarian-related case files (Death Masks & Small Favor). Her absence in Skin Game is interesting though.

[Snark Knight]

Also the Archive is an objectively bad choice for mediator here if you think about it. You essentially have 2 smaller powers fighting each other - the best arbiter would be a larger power with the means to enforce their judgement - there is no way Ivy + Kincaid could take on all the Denarians united.

I think the Shedd scene pretty clearly established that they were only able to take her because the pentagram trap and the gas were a cleverly laid trap. Now, it helped Ivy that Harry crippled one of their top sorcerors and delayed Nicodemus sufficiently to keep Anduriel from coming into play against her in his shadow form - but it's hardly fair to say she was a stupid choice because nobody anticipated the Denarians would be able to cut her off from using power freely.

Hell, if she'd thought to bring her zippy ball of mordite to the party, she probably could have slaughtered them all before the gas got to her, even on a limited power budget - it's an extraordinarily energy efficient way to kill. Tessa is the only one with much capability at all to protect herself from being touched by something like that - get a successful sucker punch on her from behind a veil, and the rest are pretty much fish in a barrel. It might even be a mortal danger to Nicodemus, if straight death magic gets around the noose' ability to heal wounds.

[peregrine]

Keep in mind that, hey, if the Archive doesn't show up, Nic still gets his talons in a signatory of the Accords as well as all the relevant power Nic has (probably he'd stop getting his calls answered by Monoc though).

Also, I may be misremembering, but where does the Black Council come in?

[morriswalters]

You essentially have 2 smaller powers fighting each other - the best arbiter would be a larger power with the means to enforce their judgement - there is no way Ivy + Kincaid could take on all the Denarians united.

Mab enforces the Accords.  The struggle between Duke Ortega and Harry was a duel.  And Mab makes Nick pay for for violating her Accords in Skin Game, it apparently was the whole point.

[kbrizzle]

@Snark Knight

Well think about it this way, when Ortega cheats in the duel in Death Masks, he is able to get away from Martin/ Susan, Harry as well as Ivy & Kincaid trying to attack him. If it weren’t for Ebenezer dropping asteroid Dresden on Ortega’s stronghold in Central America, what could the Archive have realistically done to bring him to justice? Fight the entire Red Court?

When the Denarians have taken Ivy prisoner in SmF, it is the White Council & the Knights who end up saving her, since she is effectively a 2 person organization (albeit extremely powerful). If Harry & Luccio failed, I’m sure the White Council would send other wardens after the Nickelheads.

@morriswalters

My theory is that Nic suspects that Mab is not currently strong enough to enforce the Accords. At the point of SmF, she is operating without a Knight or a Lady (Nfected Maeve); She doesn’t retaliate against the Reds for encroaching on her territory; she doesn’t do anything to Lara Raith for insulting her by imprisoning little folk. So Nic wants to see how far he can stretch it by taking Marcone - my theory is that while the Nickelheads had a suspicion that Harry would call for the Archive, they were prepared to several different outcomes.

By kidnapping Marcone, not only would Nic gain the Signatory of the Accords on his side, as per peregrine’s post, he would also test how strong Mab really is.

@peregrine

Hmm, while the Black Council is not outwardly operating, they have been involved in every book so far (subtly & not so subtly). We know by SmF that one of the Denarians was involved in the attack on Arctis Tor - Thorned Namshiel - as confirmed by Mab after in the book. Tessa’s crew’s suspiciously early departure from the fight at Demonreach have led many (including myself) to suspect that she or someone in her crew is Nfected.

[Avernite]

I think any explanation that involves not aiming for the Archive doesn't explain the Denarians well. Remember, they broke the Rules to such an extent that Uriel got to empower an extra mortal champion (i.e. Harry) with Soulfire - where the Archangels usually have only 3 empowered champions they now have 4.

All that for one extra Denarian human? A capable human, maybe, but at significant risk of damage due to the very process used to get him to take up a coin (i.e. attack him while he's together with his top lieutenants, then torture him).

But getting their hands on all the knowledge of the Archive... to know every word their foes ever write down or wrote down? To know which old forgotten Gods might be brought out to their side (and which absolutely never to release)? That could be worth it.

So I think Nic was in there for the Archive, as his trump card for the coming Apocalypse. He failed, and shifted to the weapons of the Crucifixion (but if he'd gotten the Archive he probably would have aimed for those too). But definitely the Archive was what lured him in.

[morriswalters]

@kbrizzle

My theory is that Nic suspects that Mab is not currently strong enough to enforce the Accords. At the point of SmF, she is operating without a Knight or a Lady (Nfected Maeve); She doesn’t retaliate against the Reds for encroaching on her territory; she doesn’t do anything to Lara Raith for insulting her by imprisoning little folk. So Nic wants to see how far he can stretch it by taking Marcone - my theory is that while the Nickelheads had a suspicion that Harry would call for the Archive, they were prepared to several different outcomes.

There is always tomorrow. Mess with Mab today and look over your shoulder forever, or until she's dead.  Would seem to be a trifle short sighted of Nic given the events of Skin Game.  It most certainly didn't work out well for the Reds either, in the long term.

In any case rereading just a bit, Mab pretty much lays it out. But the kicker is why Eldest Gruff getting the doughnut ends the game.  With Marcone free the Accords have been satisfied and Summer no longer has a get out of jail free card for attacking Harry.  And it keeps Mab from raining pain down on Nic.  I think this hearkens back to Dead Beat.  Remember this quote? Upon saving Harry in the alley  Gard says,

"He didn't," said Gard. "I did." She looked over her shoulder at Marcone and frowned. "This is a mistake. It was his fate to die in that alley."
"What is the point of having free will if one cannot occasionally spit in the eye of destiny?" Marcone asked.
"There will be consequences," she insisted.

What do you think? Coincidence?

However my research did catch something I missed previously. Mab admitted setting the Hobs on the Archive.  But she gives her reason, better the Archive dead than the Archive turned.  A preemptive strike.

[Bad Alias]

@kbrizzle
[Crossing Mab] most certainly didn't work out well for [Nic and the Reds], in the long term.

Considering Mab has been in her position since 1066, she is probably the youngest head of the three organizations (Reds, Denarians, and Winter). Therefore, I'd say it didn't work out in the short term from their point of view.

[dspringer1]

My theory is that Nic suspects that Mab is not currently strong enough to enforce the Accords.

Mab is a serious player in the supernatural community, but there are many serious players.  And there are many individuals (Hades, Mothers, other old hoary gods, archangels) that are significantly more powerful.    Nobody plays power games at the level Nic players without taking risks and making enemies.    Successful players are good at this type of gambling. 

Whatever action Mab does to punish a breaker of the accords must be somewhat comparable to the deed that was done.  So at best Nic risks a specific (and painful) disruption of his plans once or twice.  Breaking the accords does not make Mab a lifetime enemy after all.   They may even ally again in the future as they did in the past. 

[toodeep]

Keep in mind that Nic didn't break the accords until he kidnapped the neutral arbiter (i.e. the Archive).  He had a two step plan. 

1.  Take marcone.  valuable in his own right and doesn't negatively impact Nic

2.  If, and only if, the archive is invoked, then break the accords to get the Archive.  This would have been worth it, in his opinion.  Keep in mind, he thought he had Lasciel as a hole card corrupting Harry.  We now also know that taking the Archive wouldn't just have gotten him all the knowledge of the archive, but also the true ventori who fight the oblivion war at the Archives direction.  He would have been able to give them orders they would have believed would be necessary for the oblivion war, but that really could have just served his own ends.