Comprehensive Proven Guilty WAG

[kbrizzle]

Upon a re-read of the book, and analyzing the events that follow, I think I may have figured out 95% of what was going on in Proven Guilty.

To begin, we need to understand the Black Council/ Nemesis' objectives in this book. As I see it, they had 4 plans which were enacted more or less simultaneously:

• Attack the White Council children's camp as well as a Venatori stronghold in Oregon through the Red Court. The objective was to draw in members of the Senior Council such as Ebenezer, Injun Joe & Martha Liberty, and then ambush them with Outsiders.

• Ebenezer points out to Harry early in the book that if it weren't for allies like the Venatori, the White Council would have fallen a while ago. By attacking the stronghold, the Black Council would cripple one of the White Council's biggest allies
• By killing members of the Senior Council, the Black Council would remove serious obstacles as well as create new openings on the Senior Council that they can fill with their allies. This ploy is the premise of Turn Coat later on.

• Attack Arctis Tor, depose Mab & replace her with a Nfected Maeve.

• My theory is that Maeve convinced Mab that Lily, like Aurora, had been Nfected. This caused Mab to amass her spare troops at the border with Summer instead of retaliating against the RCV for trespassing the previous year
• This leaves Mab relatively undefended at Arctis Tor for the time being, allowing the Black Council to summon their allies & successfully breach the gates at Arctis Tor. Mab however is able to escape by hiding as a statue in her prison/garden

• Set up SplatterCon!!! to keep Harry & Michael busy in Chicago

• Madrigal Raith confirms that the conference was set up at least a year ago when he was invited to attend (and be the scapegoat)
• I believe the Black Council used Mavra, disguised as Sandra Marling to set up the Con. Mavra does this to get revenge on both Harry & Michael (through Molly). This is also supposed to keep them busy as the Black Council's other plans unfold

• Nfect Molly

• I posited earlier that Maeve convinces Mab that Lily is Nfected - as a result Mab decides to replace Lily with Molly, who she knows is not Nfected. Note: At the end of Cold Days, Mab mentions to Harry that she originally considered Molly to be a better candidate for Summer
• As a result, the Black Council decides to Nfect Molly, turning her a sleeper agent. To help prepare Molly get Nfected, the Black Council uses its' agent Sandra Marling to begin pushing Molly towards dark magic. The resulting taint on her soul would allow Nfection to take place.
• After the attack on Arctis Tor, despite successfully breaching the security, the Black Council is unable to locate Mab. Realizing the extent of the Black Council's plan, Mab is able to get Eldest Fetch to abduct Molly - taking her away from the clutches of the Black Council, and bringing in Harry to save the day.
• The Black Council is happy to send Lily to aid Harry in "rescuing" Molly because they do not want Mab to have her before the Nfection. By using Lily's butterfly in Arctis Tor, Maeve is able to further the fiction that Lily is Nfected, allowing Mab to think that Lily planned the attack. Mab sees through this & realizes that Maeve is the one who is actually Nfected

So in essence, 2 things spoil Nemesis' plans - Michael goes to Oregon instead of staying in Chicago & helping Molly; and Mab is able to successfully hide during the attack on Arctis Tor - the unsuccessful attempt unmasks Maeve. This book is the beginning of the end of the war against the Red Court - it is the first time that the Black Council are unable to achieve any of their objectives.

I also believe that it is Future Harry who creates the accident with the Beetle in the beginning of the book - this forces Harry to rely on Murphy & Thomas, both of those help he needs to get through the case. He also fixes Little Chicago as he alone knows Harry's wards at this time.

[morriswalters]

I'm still pondering the rest.  On the car wreck though.  Consider that he is attacked three times by non magic attacks. 

The car wreck.
The car bomb in Murphy's car.
The bag of explosives in Cold days.

The last by Ace.  My favorite, and I believe, the simplest explanation, is that all three attacks are by Ace.  Each one an iteration.
 
The first to realize Harry can be attacked successfully by a non Wizard. 
The second an overly complex attack misjudging the sensitivity of electronics around Harry. Implying a lack of knowledge of Wizards and technology.
The last final iteration, aerial bombing by Ace's minions. 

We can infer that Ace must have surveilled Harry for a long enough span to see him using  the General and to copy the tactic.

[Bad Alias]

That's pretty good. It would answer my question about why Mab didn't declare war on the Reds. Another explanation could be that Mab was already planning the events of Changes, so she didn't need to.

[Snark Knight]

I'm still pondering the rest.  On the car wreck though.  Consider that he is attacked three times by non magic attacks. 

The car wreck.
The car bomb in Murphy's car.
The bag of explosives in Cold days.

The last by Ace.  My favorite, and I believe, the simplest explanation, is that all three attacks are by Ace.  Each one an iteration.

I hope someone asks in a Q&A at some point for a confirmation on which mundane hit attempts were by Ace. It might get an answer, since he's dead now and no longer spoilery.

Future Harry and federal agents testing out his defenses are candidates for the hit and run. I kind of think Ace wouldn't have backed off when Harry was disoriented due to concussion, in that one.

[morriswalters]

Ok, I've given it some thought.

Attack Arctis Tor, depose Mab & replace her with a Nfected Maeve.

Either JB is playing games or the only time Mab could be killed is on Halloween or at the Stone Table.  To depose her you have to kill her, since it would have required the Mantle to make Maeve the Winter Queen. 

JB keeps the timing vague.  My current read is that it happens during the events of Dead Beat.  The point was to keep Council out of play during the Darkhallow.  By giving the Reds a chance to attack the Council through the ways without fear of retaliation from Winter.  We know that Mab feels able to answer for Lea when Harry summons her.  So after that.  The Darkhallow was the point, everything else was gravy.  Mab knew Hellfire was thrown, but she may not have known who was with the Denarian.  So the smart play is to position her pawns where she can use them and give the Reds a pass for the moment.  That may sound more certain then it is.  It's the way I write. Add a great big IMHO.

Ace wouldn't have backed off when Harry was disoriented due to concussion, in that one.

Ace showed that he wasn't the brightest crayon in the box.  And JB is in stealth mode since he has nothing to promote.

[Snark Knight]

And JB is in stealth mode since he has nothing to promote.

Yeah ... that's on my list to try if there's another AMA for the release of Peace Talks though. Probably second only to "Would Mouse recognize the people who dognapped his litter by scent if he met them undisguised?" because I want to see if his reaction to Elaine implicates or rules her out as Kumori.

[kbrizzle]

Hmm regarding Ace: I like the idea, but it just seems a little strange that he only attacks Harry in that way when the latter is on fae business - given the depth of Ace’s hatred (like we see in CD), it seems odd that Ace would attack & not complete the job 2x in the 10 years since SK.

@morriswalters

I wouldn’t be surprised if the end goal of the Artis Tor attack was to capture Mab & take her to the Stone Table. Or just imprison her, forcing the Winter Court to operate without her or the Winter Knight & a Nfected Maeve in charge

[peregrine]

Ok, I've given it some thought.Either JB is playing games or the only time Mab could be killed is on Halloween or at the Stone Table.  To depose her you have to kill her, since it would have required the Mantle to make Maeve the Winter Queen. 

Those are the only two conjunctions we know of, but are not necessarily the only two that exist.  And in fact, probably aren't.  There may have been some other options available, that for obvious reasons, those in the know keep private. 

[Avernite]

Those are the only two conjunctions we know of, but are not necessarily the only two that exist.  And in fact, probably aren't.  There may have been some other options available, that for obvious reasons, those in the know keep private.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Arctis Tor was one of those places where immortals can die. As the stronghold of one immortal, it would presumably normally protect Mab sufficiently that she's in little danger, while any immortals visiting and being a bad guest would be at risk.

Of course the downside is that the Arctis Tor attack apparently got through just fine so it'd be a crappy deal for Mab, but maybe the seat of power of an immortal simply accrues such force that it's alwas a sufficient conjunction (and the reason Mab/Titania brought the Stone Table into play in SK anyway was because no normal Winter-Summer conflict ever extends to the seats of power).

[morriswalters]

Hmm regarding Ace: I like the idea, but it just seems a little strange that he only attacks Harry in that way when the latter is on fae business - given the depth of Ace’s hatred (like we see in CD), it seems odd that Ace would attack & not complete the job 2x in the 10 years since SK.

Given JB's fetish for keeping Harry poor and resource starved, it isn't a stretch to say that it took Ace ten years to get to that point where he had the allies to make a successful attack.  And it isn't odd that he is only in the Fae story line is it?  JB never has all his antagonists in each novel.

And there may be more conjunctions but I'm trying to keep my WAG's somewhere in the neighborhood of revealed lore.  Mab could be captured by some greater circle and held, but at Arctis Tor, in the heart of Winter?  With every one and their sister coming to rain pain on your ass. I see the event as a feint.  Forcing Mab to react in a way favorable to the Adversary.  In and out.  Confuse the issue enough that Mab can't be certain of the movers behind the attack. YMMV

[kbrizzle]

One other interpretation of the Arctis Tor assault that I’d strongly considered but ultimately decided against was this:

Basically the Circle knows that Mab has figured out that Lea was Nfected, & has been curing her. They do not want Mab to be able to interrogate Nemesis, figuring out their future & concurrent plans.
Mab has not been entirely successful in interrogating Nemsis, but is aware that the Circle has a few irons in the fire. However she doesn’t know what or who is involved, so she sends her troops to Summer, leaving Arctics Tor unguarded to see which one of Nemesis’ allies will make a play.
In a sense Mab allows the Circle to assault Arctis Tor to “rescue Lea” to see how deep the contagion has spread, but in reality she wants to see who has come to assault her stronghold while she hides out securely in her prison garden. There is strong evidence that she takes revenge against Thorned Namshiel for his role in the attack in Small Favor. She also figures out that Maeve has become Nemfected.

[Snark Knight]

There is strong evidence that she takes revenge against Thorned Namshiel for his role in the attack in Small Favor. She also figures out that Maeve has become Nemfected.

I'm not sure he was the only Denarian in on it, if he was the attacker at all. Nic thought Tessa or Rosanna was "our Judas", after all. Could even have been all three of them.

[kbrizzle]

@Snark Knight

Oh I completely agree. We just know from Mab’s words at the end of SmF in the hospital chapel that “one of the Fallen has much to answer for”,  & her response to when Harry mentions Namshiel seems to confirm it.

@morriswalters

I don’t think the point of the attack was to hold Mab at Arctis Tor - the fact that the Black Council were unable to get her out of there is what made their attack fail. The point was to remove Mab from play - either force her to run, imprison her or Kill her - any of the 3 would have placed the Nfected Maeve in charge of Winter.

I also don’t think that the attack happened during Dead Beat - Mab appears to Harry personally in that book when he tries to call up Lea - she wouldn’t have been able to were her stronghold under attack. I think the attack happened a few hours, max days before Harry gets there to save Molly.

@Bad Alias

I don’t think that’s the reason - Changes is still 4-5 years away, and after PG both Fae courts stop allowing the Reds the pass. This turns the tide of the war against the Reds, forcing them to look at complex dual edged swords like the ritual in Changes. I don’t think Mab had planned it that far ahead - she didn’t even know at this point that Maeve is Nfected.

[morriswalters]

I also don’t think that the attack happened during Dead Beat - Mab appears to Harry personally in that book when he tries to call up Lea - she wouldn’t have been able to were her stronghold under attack. I think the attack happened a few hours, max days before Harry gets there to save Molly.

I think it was just after Harry's talk with Mab in Dead Beat. In this exchange, early in Proven Guilty, it is implied that something happened just after the attacks by the Reds to cause Mab to hold back.  That's my read, YMMV.

“You remember the Red Court’s attack last year,” he said. “That they called up Outsiders and assaulted us within the realm of Faerie itself.”
“Bad move, so I’ve heard. The Faeries are going to take it out of their hides.”
“So we all thought,” the old man said. “In fact, Summer declared war upon the Red Court and began preliminary assaults on them. But Winter hasn’t responded—and Summer hasn’t done much more than secure its borders.”

[Bad Alias]

@Bad Alias

I don’t think that’s the reason - Changes is still 4-5 years away, and after PG both Fae courts stop allowing the Reds the pass. This turns the tide of the war against the Reds, forcing them to look at complex dual edged swords like the ritual in Changes. I don’t think Mab had planned it that far ahead - she didn’t even know at this point that Maeve is Nfected.

I'm not committed to the idea. It was just a thought I had while typing. But somebody was testing out the bloodline curse used in Changes 11 years earlier in Storm Front.