Author Topic: Small Favor - Arbitrator Choice  (Read 9224 times)

Offline Kindler

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Re: Small Favor - Arbitrator Choice
« Reply #15 on: February 12, 2018, 08:15:17 PM »
This is always the unavoidable Fall-back: that one of the Big Players had enough foresight to use this episode to accomplish something else entirely.

Yeah, I don't really like the explanation for mostly the same reasons I dislike time travel as a solution: it's too easy an explanation, and feels like a simple handwave to something that could be more.

Offline jonas

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Re: Small Favor - Arbitrator Choice
« Reply #16 on: February 13, 2018, 09:31:42 AM »
Yeah, I don't really like the explanation for mostly the same reasons I dislike time travel as a solution: it's too easy an explanation, and feels like a simple handwave to something that could be more.
Easy!? time travel is complicated to even ponder let alone make a logical tied together story containing it. Even Back to the Future only works with the delorian as a method to prevent paradoxal actions itself, it conserves history by action or failure of action(usually in the motor lol).
So I don't buy that time travel is easy.... go watch the Gobs of star trek episodes containing TT and come back when you can explain them all to me lol, cause i'm still scratching my head over a few.

One thing I don't think anyone's touched upon is that Anduriel was present when Gard asked Harry to intervene, ergo the plan to go after the Archive came to the forefront of their action as a direct result of pertinent intelligence gathered. That Harry himself would ask on behalf of the WC and choose an arbiter... which his message to her may have been just as easily intercepted by Nic. So the Aquarium became a set up for Ivy only as a direct result of a perceived opportunity?
« Last Edit: February 13, 2018, 09:36:41 AM by jonas »
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Offline Quantus

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Re: Small Favor - Arbitrator Choice
« Reply #17 on: February 13, 2018, 01:19:42 PM »
Yeah, I don't really like the explanation for mostly the same reasons I dislike time travel as a solution: it's too easy an explanation, and feels like a simple handwave to something that could be more.
Not Time Travel.  While that is something we very much have to deal with (like it or not) because it's an established part of the setting.  No, Im just talking about Foresight, either basic intelligence-based or in Vadderungs case Long-established Mythical Precognition. 

It carries some of the same pitfalls and headaches I admit, but skips a lot of others. 
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Offline Kindler

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Re: Small Favor - Arbitrator Choice
« Reply #18 on: February 13, 2018, 02:29:48 PM »
Easy!? time travel is complicated to even ponder let alone make a logical tied together story containing it. Even Back to the Future only works with the delorian as a method to prevent paradoxal actions itself, it conserves history by action or failure of action(usually in the motor lol).
So I don't buy that time travel is easy.... go watch the Gobs of star trek episodes containing TT and come back when you can explain them all to me lol, cause i'm still scratching my head over a few.

I wasn't clear. I'm not saying that the stories are easy to tell, I'm saying that time travel, as a plot device, is an easy way to handwave literally any ongoing mystery in a long-running series. Proven Guilty's hanging threads? Time travel. Who blew up Murphy's car in White Night? Time traveler. Who is Cowl? A time traveler. Hell, I remember people wondering if Harry was killed at the end of Changes by a time traveler.

The mechanics can be as complicated as you like, which can complicate the story in which it is used, or as straight forward (ish) as Bill and Ted. But you can tie up every single loose end in any story with a sci-fi or fantasy setting by applying time travel to it. That's what I'm talking about. I'm not saying it's easy to tell a twisty time travel story. I've done it. It's not particularly fun, and I won't be doing it again.

Not Time Travel.  While that is something we very much have to deal with (like it or not) because it's an established part of the setting.  No, Im just talking about Foresight, either basic intelligence-based or in Vadderungs case Long-established Mythical Precognition. 

It carries some of the same pitfalls and headaches I admit, but skips a lot of others. 

Yeah, I was using time travel as a comparison; I don't like foresight as an explanation for similar reasons I dislike time travel as an explanation. Most things can be explained by saying, "Well, so-and-so predicted that this was going to happen, and arranged things so that it happened a certain way." The wheels-within-wheels stuff may be a bit complex to lay out, with Batman Gambits aplenty, and it can make for some cool scenes and establishing character moments, but as an explanation to dangling plot questions, I find it lacking. It's almost a cop out in some regards.

I've also written prophesy books, and that is also something I won't be doing again. Too difficult to make it interesting when prophecy twists are so commonplace everybody looks for them the moment a prophecy is made. Most readers are savvy enough to realize that prophecies will be True From a Certain Point of View, so that twist you think is going to be awesome just falls flat. Better writers than me might be able to do something original with them, (like a prophecy bait-and-switch; you think it's about Character X, but it's really about Character Y) but I've had my fill of those types of devices for my own material. Lady in the Water tried and failed to do something like that.

Foresight isn't quite the same animal, and it's established well enough in the Dresden Files by characters like Rashid, Odin, Mab, Marcone (to an extent), Lara, and a few others I'm forgetting for it to be reasonably believable. It gives you a lot more wiggle room, since the characters aren't blatantly claiming, "X will happen," they're simply arranging pieces so that it does, and you only find out about it later. I'd still prefer a different explanation, because, again, it feels like a cop out when you discover, "Oh my stars, everything was arranged by X," or "X and Y worked together to manipulate everything and I am just a cosmic plaything."

See, the reveal about Uriel having a delicate hand in Small Favor was really effective, because it came out of freaking nowhere. Mr. Sunshine was a character who subtly shaped events in the background, and nobody would have known he was involved at all if he didn't choose to reveal himself to Harry. The twist there wasn't that Harry was manipulated, it was that there was another player not even on the board, but above it, playing a totally different game altogether.

Anywho, I'm not saying at all that Jim can't take the above things and turn them into interesting stories or incorporate them into the existing narrative in a cool way, because I have way too much respect for him as a writer and a nerd to get things right. I'm speaking in general terms, I dislike them as plot devices because, in the hands of too many, less able writers (including myself here), they simply don't work out, and I'd prefer that the overarching narrative not rely on time travel or foresight to be the primary driving force behind too many dangling threads.

Offline Quantus

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Re: Small Favor - Arbitrator Choice
« Reply #19 on: February 13, 2018, 02:55:44 PM »
Yeah, I was using time travel as a comparison; I don't like foresight as an explanation for similar reasons I dislike time travel as an explanation. Most things can be explained by saying, "Well, so-and-so predicted that this was going to happen, and arranged things so that it happened a certain way." The wheels-within-wheels stuff may be a bit complex to lay out, with Batman Gambits aplenty, and it can make for some cool scenes and establishing character moments, but as an explanation to dangling plot questions, I find it lacking. It's almost a cop out in some regards.

I've also written prophesy books, and that is also something I won't be doing again. Too difficult to make it interesting when prophecy twists are so commonplace everybody looks for them the moment a prophecy is made. Most readers are savvy enough to realize that prophecies will be True From a Certain Point of View, so that twist you think is going to be awesome just falls flat. Better writers than me might be able to do something original with them, (like a prophecy bait-and-switch; you think it's about Character X, but it's really about Character Y) but I've had my fill of those types of devices for my own material. Lady in the Water tried and failed to do something like that.

Foresight isn't quite the same animal, and it's established well enough in the Dresden Files by characters like Rashid, Odin, Mab, Marcone (to an extent), Lara, and a few others I'm forgetting for it to be reasonably believable. It gives you a lot more wiggle room, since the characters aren't blatantly claiming, "X will happen," they're simply arranging pieces so that it does, and you only find out about it later. I'd still prefer a different explanation, because, again, it feels like a cop out when you discover, "Oh my stars, everything was arranged by X," or "X and Y worked together to manipulate everything and I am just a cosmic plaything."

See, the reveal about Uriel having a delicate hand in Small Favor was really effective, because it came out of freaking nowhere. Mr. Sunshine was a character who subtly shaped events in the background, and nobody would have known he was involved at all if he didn't choose to reveal himself to Harry. The twist there wasn't that Harry was manipulated, it was that there was another player not even on the board, but above it, playing a totally different game altogether.

Anywho, I'm not saying at all that Jim can't take the above things and turn them into interesting stories or incorporate them into the existing narrative in a cool way, because I have way too much respect for him as a writer and a nerd to get things right. I'm speaking in general terms, I dislike them as plot devices because, in the hands of too many, less able writers (including myself here), they simply don't work out, and I'd prefer that the overarching narrative not rely on time travel or foresight to be the primary driving force behind too many dangling threads.
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Offline jonas

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Re: Small Favor - Arbitrator Choice
« Reply #20 on: February 13, 2018, 07:46:53 PM »
Quote
I wasn't clear. I'm not saying that the stories are easy to tell, I'm saying that time travel, as a plot device, is an easy way to handwave literally any ongoing mystery in a long-running series.
I consider the two one and the same, if your using a TT plot device and it is not well written into a logical set up then yea, it's easy to justify just about anything. Which is pretty much the same for anything you can guess without a logical set up though. TT is no more easy a handwaver than it is to write it in. It's either there, or it's not, it either matches one linear attempt or it's a crapshoot. The closed loop nature of the DF can be pointed to in the 'mistakes' that were caught but intentionally never changed, the dreams with Mandela effect connotations, the direct explanation in PG of how to effect TT without breaking the universe by direct paradox and choice and twinning universes.

Though I admit the conclusions from these things can vary wildly between likely and where the F did that idea come from? lol.
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Offline Talby16

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Re: Small Favor - Arbitrator Choice
« Reply #21 on: February 13, 2018, 08:30:24 PM »
Another explanation is that Harry bringing in the Archive is a best case scenario for the Nickleheads. Convincing or coercing Marcone to take up a coin may have been enough of a prize for Nic to start the operation. By kidnapping Marcone in Chicago they increased their chances to involve Harry just by Chicago being his turf. In addition though, a complaint must be lodged by an Accords member. In Chicago, as far as we know, that is Harry. By breaking the Accords and involving Mab they increased their chances of involving Harry because Mab has been known to use Harry before. The Nickleheads had a better than average chance of involving Harry in their operation by my estimate. The odds of Harry choosing Archive as the mediator are also better than average given his past history with her. Nic had a good chance of having the operation come off as it did in the book.

Now, there are a lot of moving parts in this plan and some things certainly could have happened to derail Nic's operation. However, if you start from the premise that just securing Marcone was an acceptable outcome, then it certainly lessens the overall risk and makes the plan a lot more viable because even if Harry didn't become involved or chose a different mediator the Nickleheads could have retreated to their lair with Marcone and still counted it a victory.

Offline Quantus

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Re: Small Favor - Arbitrator Choice
« Reply #22 on: February 13, 2018, 08:55:32 PM »
Another explanation is that Harry bringing in the Archive is a best case scenario for the Nickleheads. Convincing or coercing Marcone to take up a coin may have been enough of a prize for Nic to start the operation. By kidnapping Marcone in Chicago they increased their chances to involve Harry just by Chicago being his turf. In addition though, a complaint must be lodged by an Accords member. In Chicago, as far as we know, that is Harry. By breaking the Accords and involving Mab they increased their chances of involving Harry because Mab has been known to use Harry before. The Nickleheads had a better than average chance of involving Harry in their operation by my estimate. The odds of Harry choosing Archive as the mediator are also better than average given his past history with her. Nic had a good chance of having the operation come off as it did in the book.

Now, there are a lot of moving parts in this plan and some things certainly could have happened to derail Nic's operation. However, if you start from the premise that just securing Marcone was an acceptable outcome, then it certainly lessens the overall risk and makes the plan a lot more viable because even if Harry didn't become involved or chose a different mediator the Nickleheads could have retreated to their lair with Marcone and still counted it a victory.
Hmm, so if Marcone was the base level prize and Ivy was just a possibility, it could jive.  It still represents a metric f*ckton of wasted resources on a vague possibility, given that it took Lucifer Himself to fuel the huge Circles that were only needed for Ivy, a cost equivalent to having to deal with a Soul fire-empowered Dresden there-after.   
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Offline prince lotore

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Re: Small Favor - Arbitrator Choice
« Reply #23 on: February 13, 2018, 09:35:37 PM »
I looked it as guard would not bring her failures to the all father and make it his problem to fix.
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Offline raidem

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Re: Small Favor - Arbitrator Choice
« Reply #24 on: February 13, 2018, 10:20:30 PM »
Someone had mentioned the death Angel as lash in ghost story.
What if uriel didn't just give Harry assistance via solitude but created something more from the lash that got wings.  We know Bonnie formed from the remnants of lash but it could be possible that the shadow of lash itself got an upgrade at the end of white knight. Uriel then poured a ton of power into this lower angelic lash to form the death Angel.  This would mean uriels gift to Harry isn't equal to hells donation of power but only part of uriels balancing act.

Side note: wojl: mab won big in small favor and the implication was it partly stems from predicting Harry correctly.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2018, 10:22:44 PM by raidem »
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Offline Talby16

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Re: Small Favor - Arbitrator Choice
« Reply #25 on: February 13, 2018, 10:55:26 PM »
Hmm, so if Marcone was the base level prize and Ivy was just a possibility, it could jive.  It still represents a metric f*ckton of wasted resources on a vague possibility, given that it took Lucifer Himself to fuel the huge Circles that were only needed for Ivy, a cost equivalent to having to deal with a Soul fire-empowered Dresden there-after.   

It is a huge use of resources on a lower probability plan, but the Nickleheads plan long term and seem willing to deal with failure of their plans in pursuit of their overall goal. To them, just ending up with Marcone had to have been worth breaking the Accords while possibly getting Ivy out of the deal a potential windfall.

Offline forumghost

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Re: Small Favor - Arbitrator Choice
« Reply #26 on: February 13, 2018, 11:14:28 PM »
Fair point, especially given the missing coin.  Her issues with Marcone's Choice in DB never struck me as her having a problem with Marcone exercising Free Will so much as a Chooser of the Slain being made uncomfortable by her Slain-Choosing powers being foiled/circumvented. 

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Offline wardenferry419

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Re: Small Favor - Arbitrator Choice
« Reply #27 on: February 14, 2018, 12:02:17 AM »
Chicago is Harry's town. If it happens in Chi-town, Harry will be involved. Harry is a creature of habit. His reaction to new problems is often to return to or reuse that which is most familar. In most books, after taking a hit, he tends to return home to regroup instead of hiding in the strange. Ivy was arbitrator in prior accords dispute, he has a friendly connection to Ivy, she would be on the very short list of members he would trust.
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Offline Quantus

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Re: Small Favor - Arbitrator Choice
« Reply #28 on: February 14, 2018, 01:55:46 PM »
Side note: wojl: mab won big in small favor and the implication was it partly stems from predicting Harry correctly.
I got the exact opposite implication from it, actually.  That she always guesses wrong but got lucky that time.

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The thing is that Mab never really figures Dresden quite right.  She never gets it right when she tries to predict what he will do.  But Small Favor turned out really well for her.
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Offline raidem

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Re: Small Favor - Arbitrator Choice
« Reply #29 on: February 14, 2018, 02:55:10 PM »
I was thinking that it was one time in which she came closer than usual in predicting Harry correctly. (But...)

Or, the (But...) just meant she'd throw a Harry Chaos bolt and see what happens. (However, she still figures Dresden mostly right just not really quite right.)

In any event, Mab won big in Small Favor so it was likely there were big bets waged against Mab in this plot.  And Harry's actions in this book compromised Mab's enemies positions.

Who was active during Small Favor
Titania
Summer
Mab
Winter
Uriel
Heaven, 3 Swords
Denarians
Denarians compromised by Nemesis

Hell (assisted Denarians who violated the Accords) (Hell I'm sure also functions to protect reality so they likely wanted to out their traitors)
Marcone and Gard
Archive
Demeter
Harry
White Council?
Black Council via Peabody via Luccio
Murphy
McAnally
Thomas
Hobs
Maeve?
Lily
Nemesis most likely appears somewhere

« Last Edit: February 14, 2018, 03:16:21 PM by raidem »
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