Disproof

[forumghost]

Time-Travel. They're identical twins in that they are genetically the same person, from another timeline. (Incidentally this is why I hate Timetravel theories. You can justify practically anything with enough application of Time-Travel.)

[Arjan]

Titania is Mab from a mirror mirror world. Insert some time traveling here to make it work.

[Quantus]

Harry clearly relies upon Murphy as an ally in both Cold Days and Skin Game. Those are in the future with respect to Mab's comments in GS, and Mab would know that she was Murphy and that Harry, would, in the future, be considering Murphy an ally.

In the future with respect to an Objective Timeline only.  Any time spent in a previous persona would still be in Mab's Past.  In any present where they can interact you'd have to consider them separate entities.  And that's ignoring all the paradox and/or butterfly effect issues with Mab living through the same events twice while somehow maintain memory of both. 

[Cozarkian]

In the future with respect to an Objective Timeline only.  Any time spent in a previous persona would still be in Mab's Past.  In any present where they can interact you'd have to consider them separate entities.  And that's ignoring all the paradox and/or butterfly effect issues with Mab living through the same events twice while somehow maintain memory of both.

I think you are arguing for a subjective timeline, there. Objectively, it would be in the future. Mab would not have lived those stories in her Mab persona yet, which means they are future events of which she has a past memory. Ergo, she would have had past knowledge that she was lying about the future. Also, for the ally portion of the statement, Mab's timeline is irrelevant. She said Harry will never consider her an ally in his heart, which makes Harry's timeline the relevant consideration, and Cold Days and Skin Game were in the future in Harry's timeline.

Now, Mab could have forgotten who she was in her mortal past life, which would make her wrong instead of a liar, but that would require the theory to be at least altered.

[Cozarkian]

I hate to burst your bubble, but unless you can explain how Murphy or Molly has an identical twin sister that we have somehow never heard about or seen evidence of, neither one can possibly be Mab. WOJ has specifically said Mab and Titania are twin sisters, in the biological sense

By the rules of the thread, though, we aren't allowed to rely upon WOJ. And also, one of the problems with "disproving" a theory is that JB has claimed he tells lies for a living and stated that Harry is an unreliable narrator. With regard to the twins, you are even left with JB was telling the truth "from a certain point of view." In addition to the cloning and alternate dimension theories, maybe JB meant the original Titania and Mab were actual twins and since the mantel slowly alters all subsequent Queens to take the form and personality of the originals, they are all always "actual twins from a certain point of view."

[raidem]

By the rules of the thread, though, we aren't allowed to rely upon WOJ. And also, one of the problems with "disproving" a theory is that JB has claimed he tells lies for a living and stated that Harry is an unreliable narrator. With regard to the twins, you are even left with JB was telling the truth "from a certain point of view." In addition to the cloning and alternate dimension theories, maybe JB meant the original Titania and Mab were actual twins and since the mantel slowly alters all subsequent Queens to take the form and personality of the originals, they are all always "actual twins from a certain point of view."

Corzarkian is correct which is why I imposed the rule regarding disproof coming from the books and not WOJ.  You can still include WOJ to argue against but for purposes of disproof I'm wondering if there is something within book that essentially kills the idea.  The following quote is the RULE to disprove from the OP.

So can you think of anything within book and not woj that prohibits ttmurphy from becoming mab, or that makes it very unlikely.

I guess I should now ask what would be some hypothetical examples in book which would disprove Murphy=Mab theory.  Feel free to fine tune my examples or add to them to be consistent with the book.

Murphy is a man. (not true)
Time travel doesn't exist. (not true)
Time travel into past is impossible (not true)
Or time travel 1000+ years back is impossible (may be a matter of power)
Or if TT 1000+ years back is possible, changing events particularly such a significant event is not. (ditto)
Mantles don't exist. (not true)
Murphy is unable to wear a Mantle.
Murphy is unable to have children.
Mantles don't alter one's appearance. (not true)
A person must have magic to assume a Mantle. (not likely true, I'd say not true)
Alternate realities don't exist (not true)
Paradoxes can't occur from time travel. (they can, but depending on situation could result in twinned universe)

[raidem]

At the end of ghost story, Mab tells Harry that he will never be her ally in his heart. She also tells him that she will never trust him. 

Mab can't lie, so if she is also Murphy, that would mean that Murphy will never trust Harry and that Mab believes Harry doesn't truly view Murphy as an ally.

I'd argue that that it could be taken a few ways. Faeries usually don't speak a statement with just one meaning, and only one of the meanings need to be true.  I'd suggest that Mab is making a statement about Her/Mab's future not about Her/Mab's past + Murphy's future up to Mab present. That might be a bit complicated.  Just think of a line in three parts.  Past, Middle, Future with respect to Mab.  Murphy's history is the Past Segment, prior to becoming Mab.  The middle segment begins with Murphy ascending to Mab up until that moment she says those words.  And then Future is the segment that she would be commenting upon.  So her comment wouldn't be applied to Murphy's past at all or even Mab's past up until that moment.

I guess you are relying upon the words "will never trust him" with regards to a blanket time statement to apply to the entire line.  Again I think 'she' Mab/Murphy is distinct from Murphy alone.   So in essence, I concur with Quantus who said the following:

In the future with respect to an Objective Timeline only.  Any time spent in a previous persona would still be in Mab's Past.  In any present where they can interact you'd have to consider them separate entities.  And that's ignoring all the paradox and/or butterfly effect issues with Mab living through the same events twice while somehow maintain memory of both. 

Now, we also have learned that Mab can be wrong. I think it is safe to assume that she is right up until the moment her identity is revealed to Harry.  If it is Murphy, then I think her words and statements get thrown up into the air and we will have to see Harry's "heart" react.  It will be then up to him as to her words ringing true or not.  I think it should also be noted Mab talks about Harry will "never be her ally in his heart." That alone seems to suggest familiarity between the two, a closeness that really hasn't been explained.  We also have Mother Winter calling Mab a 'romantic' which sort of sounds off with Mab not wanting to kill her daughter.  Some have wondered if the secret romance was with Harry, which led some to speculate about Mab being Molly though I the used same speculation to support Mab=Murphy.

[Kindler]

I think it might be helpful to establish an order of events.

Mab's statement about being mortal, to me, means that she was not born into Winter Lady status; she acquired it, presumably alongside Titania's acquisition of her own Mantle. I know we aren't supposed to use WOJ, but WOJ does state that Mab ascended from Winter Lady to Queen. In short, the process was Mortal--> Winter Lady (upon the death of the previous Winter Lady)--> Winter Queen (upon the death of the previous Winter Queen). We know that Mother Winter didn't die, as WOJ states that she is the original, (though Mother Summer isn't) therefore meaning that the Winter Queen died rather than ascending to fill the Mother Winter slot.

We also know from the books that the Queens' Mantles don't pass to the nearest vessel; the Winter Lady swaps Mantles, and the Lady's Mantle shoots over to the nearest one.

Questions raised:
1. Who was the previous Winter Queen?
2. Was that Queen the Original?
3. Who was the previous Winter Lady?
4. Was that Winter Lady the Original?
5. Is Mab biologically the daughter of that Winter Queen, as Maeve was Mab's?

Regardless, this would require Murphy to be physically present at the time the previous Winter Lady or Winter Queen was killed (thereby freeing the Winter Lady's Mantle), and was the closest available vessel for the Winter Lady's Mantle.

Can anyone think of any other questions specific to the order of events?

[raidem]

This is a good start on all things Murphy/Mab.  I'm going to search it for what you ask.  The thread has my comments addressing many issues and links to supported reference materials that delve into Mab, Winter, and such.
http://www.jimbutcheronline.com/bb/index.php/topic,50304.msg2291717.html#msg2291717

Serack's "When Winter took over at the Outer Gates"
http://www.jimbutcheronline.com/bb/index.php/topic,48717.msg2258880.html#msg2258880

Mab's history.
http://www.jimbutcheronline.com/bb/index.php/topic,50304.msg2292401.html#msg2292401

Fitting Murphy into a Mab ascension via Lady mantle.
http://www.jimbutcheronline.com/bb/index.php/topic,50304.msg2293072.html#msg2293072

So, Murphy would be Winter Lady, for how long I don't know (WOJ our Mab as a Winter Lady chose Lea to be her handmaiden).  Her appearance would have to already begun to shift.  And, then some sudden set of events that aligned with the last time things got awful in the wizarding world, it ended with at least both Mab and Titania dying, who else we don't know, which allowed our Mab, our Titania to assume the mantle of Queen roughly around the time of the Battle of Hastings.  Around that time, Mab and Titania stop speaking.  Give us 1000+ years and I don't think we can assume we would be able to identify Murphy that had been Mab for 1000+ years is our Murphy.  They'd look totally different.  So, that is one thing my theory counts on, a mask for Queen Mab that camouflages her identity, which will stun us when it is revealed.  This though is complicated further by requiring Murphy's children to have different genetics due to this change.  That could be supported by faerie genetics though with changelings looking sorta like their faerie parents.

In short:
1) We don't know who the prior Mab was to our Mab, we do know however that she was killed around 1066 along with Titania.  This event triggered our Mab and our Titania's ascension.  It also led them to be very wary about Harry, whether because he is a starborne or other reason, they have drawn a similarity between him and whoever caused an event then that led to significant disruption in faerie.
2) That queen wasn't likely the original.  We do know though that the original set of queens, (mothers, queens, and ladies) participated in an rite to establish their original base of power using the stone table.
3) We don't know who the prior Winter Lady was.  Should Murphy have indeed inserted herself as Lady, that Lady would need to die and at a place of a conjunction like at the stone table or on Halloween such that the mantle would be passed and the immortal Lady be not so immortal.  This wouldn't require Murphy to actually kill the Lady, that would still be possible, but she'd just need to be close in proximity and higher up on the priority list for the mantle than anyone else.
4) Not likely, the Winter Lady's are expendable and change fairly often.
5) Unknown.  We don't know anything much about the prior Mab and her children.  We do know that our Mab finally gets two weapons in her hands: Morgana LeFey's dagger and Medea's athame.  This may hint that one or both may have become Winter Queens or Ladies at one time or another.

[Cozarkian]

Two other things. Titania tells Harry in CD that Mab is her sister. While that is less restrictive than twin, it seems highly unlikely that Murphy's sister will time travel with her.

Also, Murphy was closer to Maeve than Molly, which means Murphy is not at that time a potential vessel, adding another hurdle to overcome for the theory.

[raidem]

Two other things. Titania tells Harry in CD that Mab is her sister. While that is less restrictive than twin, it seems highly unlikely that Murphy's sister will time travel with her.

Also, Murphy was closer to Maeve than Molly, which means Murphy is not at that time a potential vessel, adding another hurdle to overcome for the theory.

Agreed.
On the Murphy sister bit though, I have long speculated that Murphy's family reunion will get transported into the past.  Something like how Milwaukee vanishes in the Unseelie Incursion in 1994 and is replaced by lands untouched by civilization.  I've liked the idea that Mother Murphy somehow becomes Mother Winter.  I know it's even more ludicrous but it puts a smile on my face thinking about it.  That would require multiple time travel events with some going much further back in time than others.  Actually some, when I posed the theory, suggested that Mother Murphy would be a better candidate for Mother Summer.  That would actually work better in the family reunion theory going into the past with the Mother Summer abdicating at the death of the previous Winter and Summer Queens and then Mother Murphy somehow acquiring the Mother mantle with a screwed up set of succession rules where multiple mantles are up for grabs at essentially the same point in time.  Since another theory ties in with this one, I'll state it here.  I have Mrs. Spunklecrief as being the former abdicated Mother Summer whose last 'job' was to oversee Harry and play a behind the scenes role in protecting reality as a landlord.  Her deafness and speech as a result was a front with perhaps hints laced in.  WOJ says she 'finally retired' to Florida.

Also, Murphy was closer to Maeve than Molly, which means Murphy is not at that time a potential vessel, adding another hurdle to overcome for the theory.

As I said before I agree with this with the caveat that Mab didn't interfere with the mantle and succession.  The text tends to suggest that Maeve didn't see another appropriate vessel within Demonreach's ward, or if there was Mab couldn't count on it being uncompromised by nemesis.  If Mab could interfere and prevented the vessel from going to Murphy, then she could be a potential vessel at the time.  I really don't like this though because if Mab=Murphy, there needs to be very little interaction between Murphy and Mab to minimize temporal paradoxes.  I could take the view that she is a potential vessel just not as high on the priority list as Molly at that time.  I doubt it is solely 'nearest' vessel.  I mean if a much better candidate is one inch further from the mantle than a poor prospect I could imagine there being some sentience within the mantle whereby it could overrule the strict proximity rule. 

[Rasins]

New Theory

Simon Petrovitch = Cowl

[Arjan]

New Theory

Simon Petrovitch = Cowl

His outsider animated corpse or a future cowl who traveled to the past to die as simon?

[raidem]

Or is there a Mirrored Reality Simon that faked his death in this reality like how -Harry uses Harrys to fake his.

[HistoryDave]

I think the use of time travel will be more subtle, like a butterfly effect.  One choice made at just the right or wrong moment that causes a split in realities. Any huge event involving dozens of people would cause chaos on a level that would rip reality asunder, it would also be trite from a story telling perspective.  I could see Harry having to patch a rent in reality due to time travel.  In the vein of, Marty McFly has to stop Biff from screwing everything up but some things turn out different because of the events that took place.