Mortal Government Knowledge of Magic

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You have three strong forces working to cover up magic's existence.   
1) The natural reluctance of people to believe or talk about issues.   Judging by Butter's actions in Dead Beat, this is strong.
2) Supernatural creatures do make some effort to minimize impact and/or take care of evidence/witnesses.  Given many of them have powers to control people or manipulate memories, that can be very powerful. 
3) We have a government agency that is almost certainly working to keep things secret -- while collecting as much info as they can on the subject. 

Combined, these forces can do a lot to hide supernatural events from the public eye.  Snark Knight and others are correct thought -- these three forces are going to have a lot of difficulty covering up the events of a major supernatural war, much less the supernatural equivalent of WWII.  I suspect the magic secrecy dam is really under strain right now -- and will break at some point (perhaps at the start/during the final trilogy).

Not to mention that the universal laws about magic (and the metaphysical implications of the Day/Night cycle) both further support #1 by preventing the sorts of modern documentation that folks now require before they'll believe much of anything.  Harry makes that argument to Butters at one point. 

[Shift8]

I have a movie for you to watch. It isn't factual, but its realistic. It's called "Wag the Dog."
The government doesn't have to cover up anything(sort of). They have to keep it off the news. Then they don't have to explain, just shell out death benefits and clean up the mess quickly.
Besides, didn't you know there was a large stash of aerosolized LSD(swamp gas) kept in the facility after the FBI confiscated it from the CIA's MKUltra program. For safekeeping. A stray cartel bullet must have hit. And everybody in the office had been reading The Strain recently, so the hallucinations all went a specific direction.

-Not a factual movie. Enough said.

[Shift8]

Some of you guys have an inordinate capacity for suspension of disbelief. I like the DV as much as anyone, but good grief. A plot hole is a plot hole.

You guys are attributing the US government with plot power comparable to ministry of magic in Harry Potter. And the other half of you is giving human rationalization totally unrealistic capabilities. It doesn't work this way IRL.

Note I'm not saying the cat is totally of the bag here. But people would absolutely, totally, completely certainly, without a doubt, indubitably, know that something strange happened. They may not know what kind of animals attacked them. They may not even think it was magic. But its crazy to say that the general facts of the incident would not be known. Not. Possible.

But I digress. I am sure Jim will explain everything all in due time, one way or another.

[Snark Knight]

I suspect the magic secrecy dam is really under strain right now -- and will break at some point (perhaps at the start/during the final trilogy).

It was even mentioned in Ghost Story (by Butters, I think?) that the Fomor had been pushing the envelope far enough that the normals were starting to have a hard time not noticing something going on with the widespread disappearances.

[Cozarkian]

FBI agents have to pass a background check for Top Secret clearance.

It is quite possible the agents involved in the attack will keep their mouths shut, so while I by think more than just Tilly learned about vamps, I doubt vamps became public knowledge.

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You guys are attributing the US government with plot power comparable to ministry of magic in Harry Potter. And the other half of you is giving human rationalization totally unrealistic capabilities. It doesn't work this way IRL.

Not the ministry (or the Macusa?), just the Librarians of Congress who exist (and are terrifying) per WOJ, and are the most likely ones actively working the Cover-up angle, making Loup Garou tapes disappear, etc. 

If I was going to do anything in the modern era, it would have to be set after the Dresden Files climax, and I would probably focus on characters in the non-powerful-nation parts of the story:  Guys like Vince, the Venatori, and the Special Collections Division of the Library of Congress.  (Do NOT screw with the Librarians.  Holy moly.  Just don't.)

Jim

Note I'm not saying the cat is totally of the bag here. But people would absolutely, totally, completely certainly, without a doubt, indubitably, know that something strange happened. They may not know what kind of animals attacked them. They may not even think it was magic. But its crazy to say that the general facts of the incident would not be known. Not. Possible.

But I digress. I am sure Jim will explain everything all in due time, one way or another.

Known? Absolutely.  Rationalized away and never mentioned again so they can get on with their day?  Also Absolutely. 

Some people will deny it, but they still Know, deep down.  A few will actively go looking for answers, and per Bigfoot on campus it's no longer difficult to find, thanks to the Paranet. The big things, like when a major city disappears for a few hours, will get covered up on the side by the government agency that we've been told of.  The key word there is Individuals.  Individuals like Marcone, who learn the truth and take steps to account for it.  Or those like Wyatt Erp that join the Venators or some other clued-in society.  Id call the Paranet the most modern and least secret one of these.  And Im quite sure that the big vegas casino's know how to protect themselves against magic, since that will be one of the first three stops of every two-bit talent that thinks they have some magic knack to Get Rich Quick.  But you'll never see them acknowledge it in their Investor Brochure. 

But at the end of the day, Humans as a group just plain are NOT as logical as we'd like to believe.  There are a lot of psychological drives that we are entirely ignorant of at any given moment, and in groups that gets compounded.  One aspect of that is the history of magic as it was before the Age of Reason, and it wasnt a great realization.  There is an awful lot to be said of convincing yourself you are at the top of the food chain, in terms of personal comfort.  So even when individuals learn the truth, Shouting it from the Rooftops just gets you locked up; just ask Butters.

http://www.jimbutcheronline.com/bb/index.php/topic,15416.msg728651.html#msg728651
6) PEOPLE BELIEVED IN MAGIC AND IT SCARED THEM.  I mean, there was none of this "but there's no such thing as magic" nonsense involved.  And not all the witch hunters were in it for the money.  There was a class of men who knew all about the various forces of the supernatural, out there in the darkness, and who made themselves as able to contend with them as any mortal could be.  If a wizard went all kaboomy on mortals, he knew that there was someone who was going to hunt him, striking in a moment of vulnerability.

[Snark Knight]

I wonder about the casino issue, actually. Cheating casinos to establish an early-career nest egg is bit of a plot point in the Alex Verus series, for one. Now, in the DV, certainly trying to cheat a house owned by Marcone would be a bad idea (I wonder if that has something to do with how he originally got clued in?), but are all big casinos aware?

Given the diversity of different talents at the lower end of the food chain or the range of skills that can be concentrated in a wizard-level or nearly such practitioner, blocking all possible all possible avenues of cheating could actually be very difficult. Trying to magic-proof a casino would mean countering everything from an ectomancer like Mort with a ghost partner reading the dealer's cards to him at blackjack, to a sensitive like Molly passively detecting opponent's confidence levels changing hand by hand at poker, to someone with short-range future awareness like that Paranet member who got shot in GS taking advantage at the roulette wheel. That's a pretty massive range of vulnerabilities to deal with.

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I wonder about the casino issue, actually. Cheating casinos to establish an early-career nest egg is bit of a plot point in the Alex Verus series, for one. Now, in the DV, certainly trying to cheat a house owned by Marcone would be a bad idea (I wonder if that has something to do with how he originally got clued in?), but are all big casinos aware?

Given the diversity of different talents at the lower end of the food chain or the range of skills that can be concentrated in a wizard-level or nearly such practitioner, all possible avenues of cheating could actually be very difficult. Trying to wizard-proof a casino would mean countering everything from an ectomancer like Mort could have a ghost partner reading the dealer's cards to him at blackjack, to a sensitive like Molly could just passively detect opponent's confidence levels changing hand by hand, to someone with short-range future awareness like that Paranet member who got shot in GS taking it to the roulette wheel.

I have this general impression (informed by Hollywood way too much, Im sure) that the security in Casino's is going to be second to none, as it is one of the few places where Funding matches the Motivation.  And with organizations like Monoc Securities in play, who I assume apply some digression on how much they clue in their clients, I figure even if the actual heads of the organization are not clued in, somebody with clout in their security force is going to trip across the supernatural, or else be introduced to it, at some point.  Not everywhere either, but the big Mecca's of Greed like Vegas and Monte Carlo, maaaaybe Atlantic City since New York is such a microcosm. 

As far as the practicality of it, you dont have to be able to counter each distinct possible cheating method or put a blanket Ban on all magic (like some sort of antimagic field).  But some things, like activating a circle around the roulette wheel before you drop the ball, are going to be both subtle and effective.  Beyond that the same mentality for security applies to both magic and science: they just have to Detect. After that they've had decades to work out how to Motivate Cheaters to stop; sometimes they even get to keep a kneecap.  At that point they need magic to get as close to the Sight as they can get without going nuts (or budget to burn out a wizard every year or something). Which likely means a non-human supernatural agent with energy-sense of some kind (A Spirit of Intellect would be perfect).

[dspringer1]

Have to agree with Shift 8 that willful disbelief only gets you so far.  Enough witnesses and people change their mind even about the impossible.   Even assuming agencies/entities are pushing hard to discredit such witnesses is problematic given the scale of supernatural involvement with humans throughout history.  Even in Harry's personal encounters, he has met hundreds of people who "know something" and many of them are in groups (like SI cops or minor practitioners) where they know their peers have had similar experiences and it is safe to talk about what they see without being mocked or committed.   Multiply that by every city and  you get way too many people for disbelief to be something that "should" be effective. 

My personal guess is that something (spell/god/something) is actively encouraging disbelief to keep the mortals ignorant/complacent/unafraid.   Otherwise it does not make sense given how freely supernatural creatures interact with mortals. 

[Snark Knight]

But some things, like activating a circle around the roulette wheel before you drop the ball, are going to be both subtle and effective.  Beyond that the same mentality for security applies to both magic and science: they just have to Detect.

Something like Luccio's eyeglasses focus from the new short story (enhanced perception but at a much lower intensity than the sight) would help with detection. Circles would be tough to keep undisturbed anywhere with a lot of people walking about between tables though.

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Something like Luccio's eyeglasses focus from the new short story (enhanced perception but at a much lower intensity than the sight) would help with detection. Circles would be tough to keep undisturbed anywhere with a lot of people walking about between tables though.

Agreed on both counts.  The only place I could actually see it working is actually the roulette wheel itself, or anything similar that has a central mechanical fixture that everyone is expected to remain entirely clear of before the "action" begins.  Wouldnt work for most card games; would be damn complicated on craps.  All the electronic games (slots, video poker etc) should be alright so long as they make the electronics extra-fragile. 

[LordDresden2]

Some of you guys have an inordinate capacity for suspension of disbelief. I like the DV as much as anyone, but good grief. A plot hole is a plot hole.

You guys are attributing the US government with plot power comparable to ministry of magic in Harry Potter. And the other half of you is giving human rationalization totally unrealistic capabilities. It doesn't work this way IRL.

Note I'm not saying the cat is totally of the bag here. But people would absolutely, totally, completely certainly, without a doubt, indubitably, know that something strange happened. They may not know what kind of animals attacked them. They may not even think it was magic. But its crazy to say that the general facts of the incident would not be known. Not. Possible.

Oh, they'd be known.  But so would 200 other 'facts' about the incident that didn't happen to be true.

You're right that trying to pretend that 'nothing happened' would be futile.  That's not how you'd go about it.  Instead,  you'd cloud the issue.  You get a starting help from the chaos and confusion that accompanies any nasty incident like that, on any scale.

On a larger scale, it would be like a mass shooting.  Think about the confusion that usually accompanies such incidents.  There's 1 shooter, no, 3 shooters.  There are 15 dead, no, wait, 12 dead.  The shooter was armed with an AK-47.  No, wait, it was a pair of Glocks.  No, wait, it was 2 shooters, and they were shooting at each other.

It usually gets sorted out over a day or two, but imagine if somebody in a position of authority was deliberately trying to cloud the issue and confuse the matter.  Now imagine that it involves lots and lots of confused, scared, and mixed up witnesses, with conflicting accounts.  Imagine that somebody has his own people claiming to have see 'x, y, and z' and x, y, and z are all made up at the same time.  Imagine that those same someones are deliberately clouding the issue every step of the way throughout the investigation.

The forensics found weird stuff?  Put out a story that they also found imaginary weird stuff B, C, and D, and then have somebody else 'debunk' B.  Use the protests of the real witnesses that C and D didn't happen as yet more fodder for the confusion.

You've got a cop or an FBI guy who won't take a hint and shut up?  Remind him that he's still 10 years from retirement, has a kid in college and mortgage, and jobs are hard to come by.  If you're really ruthless, he can have an accident.

If somebody has the necessary money and connections, they could really confuse the issue to the point that nobody, even among the authorities, was sure of anything.  Then you put out your sane-seeming, rational-seeming explanation.  If necessary, fake up a reason to divert a bunch of FBI or police resources elsewhere for a while.

It's the same thing Murphy used to do as head of S.I., on a grander scale and with a bigger budget.

It's not infallible, of course.  But it's not as hard as all that if you've got the resources.

[LordDresden2]

I wonder about the casino issue, actually. Cheating casinos to establish an early-career nest egg is bit of a plot point in the Alex Verus series, for one. Now, in the DV, certainly trying to cheat a house owned by Marcone would be a bad idea (I wonder if that has something to do with how he originally got clued in?), but are all big casinos aware?

Define 'aware' and 'casino'.

The fact that they are still in business suggests that somebody involved with them is taking steps to keep practitioners from cleaning their clocks.  Even a fairly minor practitioner who was also smart and clever could do it, if there were no defenses in place.  Also remember that somebody in the Chicago Cubs organization knew enough to ask Harry to see if there really was a curse.

(Apparently, it's been lifted or dispelled as of 2016...or maybe the magical disruption from Changes messed it up.)

In fact, it's established that there are quite a few people who know that the supernatural is real in some form in the DV.  They aren't a majority of the population, but I'd hazard that a large minority knows or suspects something of the truth, even if only tidbits or a basic knowledge that there's Something There.  A much smaller, but still substantial, percentage knows quite a bit.

As Harry has said more than once, it's not even exactly a secret.  It just isn't advertised.

Given the diversity of different talents at the lower end of the food chain or the range of skills that can be concentrated in a wizard-level or nearly such practitioner, blocking all possible all possible avenues of cheating could actually be very difficult. Trying to magic-proof a casino would mean countering everything from an ectomancer like Mort with a ghost partner reading the dealer's cards to him at blackjack, to a sensitive like Molly passively detecting opponent's confidence levels changing hand by hand at poker, to someone with short-range future awareness like that Paranet member who got shot in GS taking advantage at the roulette wheel. That's a pretty massive range of vulnerabilities to deal with.

But 90% of it would be the basic stuff.

Yeah, Harry could wipe out most casinos without even trying, and it's not clear they could stop him.  Ditto Elaine, or Molly.  But it's also not likely that many Council-level talents would bother.  The casinos don't have to protect themselves from the Council, it's Joe the low-power but really clever practitioner who could really use 200 grand that they mostly have to worry about.

[LordDresden2]

Id call the Paranet the most modern and least secret one of these.

But there's a really simply way to counter the Paranet, if you like keeping quiet stuff quiet.

You don't try to wipe them out, cut off the Internet access, or intimidate them.  That would be time consuming, difficult, dangerous (you might draw Council attention), legally fraught, and expensive.

Instead, you set up the Metanet.  And the Maginet.  And the Cryptohistorical Society.  Fake sources, fake news, fake magic.  You get clever hucksters from Madison Avenue to come up with convincing nonsense.  You mix in just enough truth, just enough reality, to make it convincing.

Suddenly the Paranet is just one group of kooks among many.  If you're not already an insider, you have no way to know which one is the Real Deal.

This is in fact something I pointed out years ago (posting as LordDresden):  Charity Carpenter's attitude about magic is actually completely rational and reasonable, if you happen to be a low-level talent.  The risk of pursuing it, and the difficulty of determining who to trust and who to run from, and the side-effects and dangers of the pursuit, probably make it smarter to turn away, unless you're a pretty high power talent.  The risk/reward ratio is unpromising.

For ex, to use my old example from years ago, suppose you're a young talent trying to figure out how to use your abilities, and you purchase two books.  One is Elementary Magic by E. McCoy.  The other is Basic Magic by H. Relmmek.

How is the untutored, unconnected youth supposed to know that he can trust McCoy, but should burn the Relmmek book in a hot fire and scatter the ashes?  He can't.

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But there's a really simply way to counter the Paranet, if you like keeping quiet stuff quiet.

You don't try to wipe them out, cut off the Internet access, or intimidate them.  That would be time consuming, difficult, dangerous (you might draw Council attention), legally fraught, and expensive.

Instead, you set up the Metanet.  And the Maginet.  And the Cryptohistorical Society.  Fake sources, fake news, fake magic.  You get clever hucksters from Madison Avenue to come up with convincing nonsense.  You mix in just enough truth, just enough reality, to make it convincing.

Suddenly the Paranet is just one group of kooks among many.  If you're not already an insider, you have no way to know which one is the Real Deal.

This is in fact something I pointed out years ago (posting as LordDresden):  Charity Carpenter's attitude about magic is actually completely rational and reasonable, if you happen to be a low-level talent.  The risk of pursuing it, and the difficulty of determining who to trust and who to run from, and the side-effects and dangers of the pursuit, probably make it smarter to turn away, unless you're a pretty high power talent.  The risk/reward ratio is unpromising.

For ex, to use my old example from years ago, suppose you're a young talent trying to figure out how to use your abilities, and you purchase two books.  One is Elementary Magic by E. McCoy.  The other is Basic Magic by H. Relmmek.

How is the untutored, unconnected youth supposed to know that he can trust McCoy, but should burn the Relmmek book in a hot fire and scatter the ashes?  He can't.

Well sure, just about anything is vulnerable to a sufficiently motivated Conspiracy, but how is that relevant?