Author Topic: How to calculate probability?  (Read 2418 times)

Offline Tirs

  • Conversationalist
  • **
  • Posts: 206
    • View Profile
How to calculate probability?
« on: October 26, 2015, 03:20:59 PM »
Actually, the theme of the title. I need some algorithm to calculate the probability actions, for a given stats and difficulty... in percents. Considering the stunts and powers, of course. If there is something like that - I would very appreciate a link, if there isn't... so, I'll have to remember the math
RPG of my dreams: vampires from True Blood, mages from Dresden files, werewolves from Mercy Thompson and fairy from... Hm,I shall think.


Offline Haru

  • Posty McPostington
  • ***
  • Posts: 5520
  • Mentally unstable like a fox.
    • View Profile
Re: How to calculate probability?
« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2015, 05:54:18 PM »
That's true for simple rolls. For opposed rolls you get a spread of 8dF (2*4DF) +- the difference between the two skills. Add modifiers by powers if necessary.

8dF:
http://anydice.com/program/6e32
“Do you not know that a man is not dead while his name is still spoken?”
― Terry Pratchett, Going Postal

Offline Tirs

  • Conversationalist
  • **
  • Posts: 206
    • View Profile
Re: How to calculate probability?
« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2015, 06:00:53 PM »
Thank you)) Ijust want to compare some templates from different settings. That's why I need to percentage.
RPG of my dreams: vampires from True Blood, mages from Dresden files, werewolves from Mercy Thompson and fairy from... Hm,I shall think.

Offline Amelia Crane

  • Conversationalist
  • **
  • Posts: 998
  • Estranged Daughter of Darby Crane
    • View Profile
Re: How to calculate probability?
« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2015, 10:00:17 PM »
The probabilities on fudge dice in ratios and percentages are these:

+4: 1 in 81 = 1.23% (Only roll that can get +4 is ++++)
+3: 4 in 81 = 4.94% (Only rolls that can get +3 are the 4 orderings of +++0)
+2: 10 in 81 = 12.34% (Only rolls that can get +2 are the 4 orderings of +++- and the 6 orderings of ++00)
+1: 16 in 81 = 19.75% (only rolls that can get +1 are the 4 orderings of +000 and the 12 orderings of ++-0)
0: 19 in 81 = 23.46% (only rolls that can get 0 are 0000, the 6 orderings of ++--, and the 12 orderings of +-00)
-1: 16 in 81 = 19.75% (the negatives have the same numbers of results as the positive ones, but with opposite signs on the dice)
-2: 10 in 81 = 12.34%
-3: 4 in 81 = 4.94%
-4: 1 in 81 = 1.23%

I figured these might be nice to have because the link just showed a chart that you may not be able to extract exact data from.