Who Attacked Arctis Tor, and Why

[Griffyn612]

"The Enemy", "Nemesis", "The Adversary".  Before (Hope slayer), Behind ( Terror), Beside.  Fidelacchius (Sword of Hope), Esperacchius (Sword of Faith), Amoracchius (Sword of Love).  Dunno if it means anything but maybe each sword is a counter to the Walkers.

Possibly.  The feeling that Harry got from Behind in GHOST STORY's flashback was a sense of pure Hate.  That would seem to be the antithesis of Love.  Before being the Hopeslayer makes its equivalent obvious, leaving Faith and Beside.  Since my personal belief is that Nemesis is Beside, and it's method is betrayal of trust, it might work to erode Faith in each other.

[forumghost]

So, I have enjoyed the many thoughtful posts in this thread.  It has led me to another question.  I don't have a theory yet, but wanted to post it to allow others to add it to the questions here.

If the WoJ is that Mab is as powerful as stated, then why did she the attack on Arctus Tor to continue?  It seems to me that given the location that she could have shown up and pretty much crushed any attacking force.  Which leads me to ask, why do we think Winter was defending?  If Mab was distracted, Maeve could have been in control of Arctus Tor and that the battle was an attempt to retake it.

There was definitely something else going on there, Harry himself notes it in the Book:

"That's the part I can't figure," I said. "I think someone set Molly up to be a beacon for the fetches. And I'm damned sure that it was no accident that those fetches took Molly to Arctis Tor when it was so lightly defended. Someone wanted me there at Arctis Tor."

It could be that Mab just took the losses despite not having to because she wanted Harry to rescue Molly. There's also the fact that it was the attack on Arctis Tor that triggered Harry's realisation about the 'Black Council' moving behind events.

[Griffyn612]

Yeah, Mab allowing her citadel to be attacked and nearly overrun just to allow Harry to rescue Molly from there seems like a stretch.  I got the feeling that Molly being taken there, and Harry coming to rescue her from there, was Mab's attempt to let Harry see what had already happened there.

[the neurovore of Zur-En-Aargh]

Wait, the Black Circle and the Black Council are synonymous.

The Circle is an organisation that actually exists. So far as we know they're involved in WN, and maybe DB; and they may or may not be the same Circle the Eebs talk about in Changes,

The Black Council is a theory of Harry's that one organisation is behind a lot more than that.

It seems important to me to not casually assume they are interchangeable.

[the neurovore of Zur-En-Aargh]

I can't see anything but two scenarios, as I don't see an actual motivation for anyone else other than those two.

the Hellfire blowing the doors in and killing the trolls and goblins being by a Denarian working for Mab, with the intent of letting Harry in to kill the Scarecrow and rescue Molly, fits together and is different from either of those two; and it doesn't even (necessarily) involve time-travel.

[Griffyn612]

the Hellfire blowing the doors in and killing the trolls and goblins being by a Denarian working for Mab, with the intent of letting Harry in to kill the Scarecrow and rescue Molly, fits together and is different from either of those two; and it doesn't even (necessarily) involve time-travel.

A single Denarian killing thousands of Arctis Tor defenders for Mab, only to let Harry in?  Why not just order all of the defenders away from Arctis Tor as part of the guard-the-borders program that was running?  You don't needlessly waste resources, you don't put yourself into debt (or cash in a token) for something unnecessary, and you don't pretend to make yourself look vulnerable. 

[Eldest Gruff]

So, I have enjoyed the many thoughtful posts in this thread.  It has led me to another question.  I don't have a theory yet, but wanted to post it to allow others to add it to the questions here.

If the WoJ is that Mab is as powerful as stated, then why did she the attack on Arctus Tor to continue?  It seems to me that given the location that she could have shown up and pretty much crushed any attacking force.  Which leads me to ask, why do we think Winter was defending?  If Mab was distracted, Maeve could have been in control of Arctus Tor and that the battle was an attempt to retake it.

I see one of two possibilities for this coupled with Maeve being in control of the forces at that time...possibly her failure hinted to Mab that something was seriously wrong with her. But either theory requires Mab to be 'indisposed'.

Option 1: Mab was AT the Outer Gates. We know from Rashid that certain years the battling is more intense than others. The Red Court's decimating of the Council forces coupled with their 'invasion' of Fae territory in the NeverNever was both done with the help of them calling up Outsiders. What if a subsequent or parallel push was made at the Gates themselves, enough that Mab HAD to step in even if just briefly. This is either a plan to get her away from Arctis Tor to attack it, OR they are just opportunistic enough to take advantage while she is gone and Maeve is probably in charge with Lea incapacitated.

Option 2: Mab was busy curing Lea. This is admittedly the weaker of the two choices because we still don't have nearly enough information regarding Nemesis, how it infects, and what it takes to rid a person of their influence. But supposing for a moment that it requires someone more or less of Mab's power to eradicate it thoroughly from the system, that could take some working...maybe she has to slip into Lea's consciousness and actively burn Nemesis away. As she is busy at work, enemy forces are at the gate ready to strike because Maeve has informed them she is in charge while Mab sees to Lea.

Either way I think overall Maeve WAS in control of the forces at Arctis Tor for some reason or another. Whether Mab is at the Gates or in Lea's head she could still be aware of what is going on around her, (hence the statue wink), but could not pull away from one of those tasks because doing so would mean she lost something...either a pivotal battle, or her right hand woman.

[Carl]

My best guess of what happened given we've seen nashciel, (spelling? sry), and tessa since, and they're probably the only two that could have pulled it off, is that the denarian was just hired to blow in the doors and wisely GTFOOH'd after doing so. The main attack was outsider plus Black Council who'd summoned them. A whole metric ton of them. Assuming Mab won't to mostly avoid friendly fire at first she's going to have to target her attacks carefully and the outsiders are pretty magic resistance so she could genuinely have issues hitting more than a handful at once from a simple power control PoV. Eventually the attackers start to win through and Mab decides to invoke the Nuclear option and just mass cleanse the whole of Arctis Tor Fae and Outsider alike.

Also semi-related WAG. Anyone want to bet Arctis Minor is now positioned on the NN side of the Carpenter household?

[Griffyn612]

Just going to add this for consideration.

The bones piled higher as I went, forcing me to walk atop them as best I could.
...
Bones spilled out in a wave from the gate, rapidly tapering off after a few yards. Beyond that were only scattered groupings of bones.
...
The remains of perhaps a thousand creatures lay scattered about.
...
“These trolls were her personal guard.” I gestured back at the gate. “Covering her retreat to the tower, maybe. Some of them got taken down along the way. The others made a stand at the tower’s base. Died there.”

But I had noticed something. Those layers and mounds of shale? They weren’t shale. They were bones. Millions and millions and millions of fucktons of bones.

Harry clearly describes piles of bones lying in the remnants of Arctis Tor's defenses.  The only other time I can recall piles of bones is in COLD DAYS, describing the bones of the fallen guards at the gates.  There would seem to be a correlation there.

And I can't see Mab sacrificing at least a dozen or more of her personal guard along with a thousand other troops just to let Harry stroll into Arctis Tor.  If Harry is right, then whoever was attacking Arctis Tor had Mab retreating.  That's got to be a seriously powerful coalition of troops, even if they were someone like the Circle with Outsider support.  It makes me think of the horde of Outsiders we saw in COLD DAYS storming Demonreach. 

Of course, maybe the bones weren't all defenders.  Maybe they were the attackers too.  Maybe it was Circle and Ramps and Outsiders and others all working together, and some of those bones are Ramps and such.  But still, I can't see all of that being a setup for Harry walking in to save Molly.

[peregrine]

Pretty sure the similarity between the two situations with bones is that there were a lot of dead bodies around.

[Griffyn612]

Pretty sure the similarity between the two situations with bones is that there were a lot of dead bodies around.

[Eldest Gruff]

Just going to add this for consideration.
Harry clearly describes piles of bones lying in the remnants of Arctis Tor's defenses.  The only other time I can recall piles of bones is in COLD DAYS, describing the bones of the fallen guards at the gates.  There would seem to be a correlation there.

And I can't see Mab sacrificing at least a dozen or more of her personal guard along with a thousand other troops just to let Harry stroll into Arctis Tor.  If Harry is right, then whoever was attacking Arctis Tor had Mab retreating.  That's got to be a seriously powerful coalition of troops, even if they were someone like the Circle with Outsider support.  It makes me think of the horde of Outsiders we saw in COLD DAYS storming Demonreach. 

Of course, maybe the bones weren't all defenders.  Maybe they were the attackers too.  Maybe it was Circle and Ramps and Outsiders and others all working together, and some of those bones are Ramps and such.  But still, I can't see all of that being a setup for Harry walking in to save Molly.

I see one of two possibilities for this coupled with Maeve being in control of the forces at that time...possibly her failure hinted to Mab that something was seriously wrong with her. But either theory requires Mab to be 'indisposed'.

Option 1: Mab was AT the Outer Gates. We know from Rashid that certain years the battling is more intense than others. The Red Court's decimating of the Council forces coupled with their 'invasion' of Fae territory in the NeverNever was both done with the help of them calling up Outsiders. What if a subsequent or parallel push was made at the Gates themselves, enough that Mab HAD to step in even if just briefly. This is either a plan to get her away from Arctis Tor to attack it, OR they are just opportunistic enough to take advantage while she is gone and Maeve is probably in charge with Lea incapacitated.

Option 2: Mab was busy curing Lea. This is admittedly the weaker of the two choices because we still don't have nearly enough information regarding Nemesis, how it infects, and what it takes to rid a person of their influence. But supposing for a moment that it requires someone more or less of Mab's power to eradicate it thoroughly from the system, that could take some working...maybe she has to slip into Lea's consciousness and actively burn Nemesis away. As she is busy at work, enemy forces are at the gate ready to strike because Maeve has informed them she is in charge while Mab sees to Lea.

Either way I think overall Maeve WAS in control of the forces at Arctis Tor for some reason or another. Whether Mab is at the Gates or in Lea's head she could still be aware of what is going on around her, (hence the statue wink), but could not pull away from one of those tasks because doing so would mean she lost something...either a pivotal battle, or her right hand woman.

What if the retreating person was Maeve? She could easily play off 'running' as she is already infected AND probably part of the plan to some degree.

[Griffyn612]

What if the retreating person was Maeve? She could easily play off 'running' as she is already infected AND probably part of the plan to some degree.

Wait, I think there's a divergence in theory here. 

Namkas seemed to be implying that Mab was absent, and Maeve took over Arctis Tor.  Then there was a battle to retake Arctis Tor.  But who was retaking it?  Mab?  Why would she need fire to destroy her gates?  Or did Maeve attack Arctis Tor to take it?  Why would Mab's personal guard be guarding Maeve when she retreated from Mab?

Or is it that Mab was at the Gates, so she left Maeve in charge of defense at Arctis Tor?  And then the bad guys attacked Arctis Tor, and Maeve subtly sabotaged the defensive efforts, which almost caused Arctis Tor to fall?

[Eldest Gruff]

Wait, I think there's a divergence in theory here. 

Namkas seemed to be implying that Mab was absent, and Maeve took over Arctis Tor.  Then there was a battle to retake Arctis Tor.  But who was retaking it?  Mab?  Why would she need fire to destroy her gates?  Or did Maeve attack Arctis Tor to take it?  Why would Mab's personal guard be guarding Maeve when she retreated from Mab?

Or is it that Mab was at the Gates, so she left Maeve in charge of defense at Arctis Tor?  And then the bad guys attacked Arctis Tor, and Maeve subtly sabotaged the defensive efforts, which almost caused Arctis Tor to fall?

The two theories I posited above were that either Mab was at the Gates or curing Lea. Either way Maeve was in charge of Arctis Tor at the time and 'allowed' a breach which she maybe thought she could play off as incompetence, overwhelming force or some such excuse but might have alerted Mab in the end to her actually being afflicted by Nemesis.

[Griffyn612]

The two theories I posited above were that either Mab was at the Gates or curing Lea. Either way Maeve was in charge of Arctis Tor at the time and 'allowed' a breach which she maybe thought she could play off as incompetence, overwhelming force or some such excuse but might have alerted Mab in the end to her actually being afflicted by Nemesis.

Fair enough.  What would the goal be, though?  Free Lea, if Mab is at the Gates?  Or defeat Mab if she were busy and distracted?  Or both, if she's there?

I've added it as an option, since it's specific enough to differentiate from just a general Circle or Outsider attack.