Author Topic: The Gatekeeper fixed LC and other PG musings [spoilers up to CD]  (Read 23269 times)

Offline wyltok

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The Gatekeeper fixed LC and other PG musings [spoilers up to CD]
« on: February 11, 2013, 06:11:00 PM »
I was recently looking at Elegast's theory index and was surprised to notice that the Gatekeeper is no longer up as a suspect for fixing Little Chicago. This surprised me, as I seem to recall that he was the original suspect. So I decided to make this topic to try to get him back on the list, as I consider him the most likely suspect; maybe I'll be able to convince others.

This topic can be seen as discussing two ideas. The first aspect will focus on the things that point to Rashid being the one who did it. A considerable part of this evidence is based on Rashid's ties with Winter, however, so the inevitable argument will be made that the evidence does not truly differentiate between Rashid and the current forerunner, Mab. So the second  focus of this post will be why Rashid is a more likely Culprit than the Queen of Air and Darkness.
There are five things needed of whoever fixed Little Chicago. In order of difficulty, they are:

1. Whoever did it waited until Bob was out of Harry's place before they did anything. So they had to know about Bob.
2. Whoever did it had to have known that Little Chicago existed and had a fatal flaw.
3. Whoever did it had to understand the magic involved well enough to fix the problem.
4. Whoever did it had to be able to work enough magic inside Harry's house to be able to fix the problem.
5. Whoever did it had to have a way to get into Harry's lab past his wards to fix it.

Let's tackle the points from easiest to hardest. As the topic is rather long, I've separated each one into its own spoiler box.

The Culprit's Point of Entry
(click to show/hide)

The Culprit's Power Level
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The Culprit's Skill Level
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The Culprit's Knowledge of LC
(click to show/hide)

The Culprit's Knowledge of Bob
(click to show/hide)

Other considerations (Mab & and the murk)
(click to show/hide)

Of the classic investigative triangle, the previous points focus on means and opportunity. In conclusion, I would like to take a look at the final piece of the puzzle: motive. Cold Days is interesting, because in it we learn that Mab was not preparing Molly to become the Winter Lady, but rather thought she would make a better Summer Lady. However, I don't think that the events of Cold Days were completely unexpected. I propose that Rashid's whole purpose in setting Harry up to save Molly was specifically so that she would be there when the time came, and she would become the next Winter Lady. It is as he said to Harry in Cold Days: Harry was the cavalry, come to save the whole debacle initated by Maeve's possession and Harry setting Summer's fire into Winter's Wellspring.

So, with better means, a clearer motive, and ample opportunity, I humbly propose that Wizard Rashid, the Gatekeeper, was the one who fixed Little Chicago as one of the first pebbles that would end with the avalanche of Margaret Katherine Amanda "Molly" Carpenter as Winter Lady. Apologies for any typos or errors I missed, and I would certainly love to hear everyone's thoughts and feedback.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2013, 09:04:28 PM by wyltok »
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wizard nelson

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Re: The Gatekeeper fixed LC and other PG musings [spoilers up to CD]
« Reply #1 on: February 11, 2013, 10:33:36 PM »
well first its explicit that thomas was home, not that he saw anything or remembers seeing it. second its rather more complex of a spell than any of those on your list. not saying he couldn't have done it but threshold+ knowing LC existed+ knowing how it worked and finally knowing it was messed up in the first place makes it unlikely. if forsight is the only thing rashid has that puts him on the list one could argue it was odin keeping an eye on his next 'apprentice' as he obviously has had his eye on harry awhile.
my main problem with it being any forsight or anything but a possible Novikov self-consistency principle time warp is any forsight gained would be in direct response to learning harry popped his head, meaning it 1000 times more likely to happen again (per odins explanation) so forsight being a factor is really iffy. how would they gain the required knowledge on LC without contaminating the timeline?
wanted to add, odin as kringle knows of all human deeds and misdeeds so its possible he knew abot it
« Last Edit: February 11, 2013, 10:51:34 PM by wizard nelson »

Offline Elegast

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Re: The Gatekeeper fixed LC and other PG musings [spoilers up to CD]
« Reply #2 on: February 11, 2013, 11:44:58 PM »
I was recently looking at Elegast's theory index and was surprised to notice that the Gatekeeper is no longer up as a suspect for fixing Little Chicago. This surprised me, as I seem to recall that he was the original suspect.

I'm sure many theories are missing. Added the Gatekeeper.

I'll make a longer answer to our OP when I'll have the time.
My "Maeve came to Splattercon!!! disguised as a vampire" theory : Maeve did it

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Offline Cenphx

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Re: The Gatekeeper fixed LC and other PG musings [spoilers up to CD]
« Reply #3 on: February 11, 2013, 11:54:11 PM »
First, let me just say, big kudos to you for laying this all out so clearly. I know it takes a buttload of work and is really difficult, so give yourself a pat on the back. Reading your post and then rereading, I have a couple of probably minor questions for you.

1) Regarding your point that Rashid made sure to come inside to fix LC when Bob wasn't around, how could he know that Bob wouldn't be there? As noted in Serack's post, Harry rarely took Bob on investigations and Bob's role at the convention that night was pretty minimal. So it would be hard to know that Harry would take Bob with him. Unless Rashid saw that too with his foresight, but I guess I don't imagine it giving the wielder that kind of small detail (like what Harry is carrying in his backpack when he leaves his apartment). But I guess I could be wrong about that.

2) When Rashid sees something with his foresight that he wants to change, we have seen his actions be as minimally intrusive as possible, the bare minimum he could get away with and still be effective. I'm thinking of his very vague direction to Harry about "black magic is afoot" rather than "go stop Molly Carpenter from using mind magic against her friends and being abducted by Winter" (or something equally clear but meeting his goals--maybe he wanted Molly abducted.) So why would Rashid act directly here rather than just sending Harry another vague message like "you might want to double-check all your magical items before you use them"? It seems out of character.

3) Why would Rashid keep his actions a secret from Harry? If it was okay for him to direclty intervene, what difference would it make if Harry knew? 

Offline Ms Duck

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Re: The Gatekeeper fixed LC and other PG musings [spoilers up to CD]
« Reply #4 on: February 12, 2013, 12:31:04 AM »
Serack did an excellent analysis a few years ago that was the basis for many ideas about the gatekeeper being the culprit; it should be in reference someplace.

I still hold Mab as suspect number one though; some of the comments in CD:

- she knows what Harrys apartment looks like
- she knew about bob all along
- sidhe can walk thru thresholds

all seem to me to be less cluebats and more of " good grief, haven't you all solved this one by now?" On Jim's part
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Offline Ben de Wal

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Re: The Gatekeeper fixed LC and other PG musings [spoilers up to CD]
« Reply #5 on: February 12, 2013, 01:22:41 AM »
Serack did an excellent analysis a few years ago that was the basis for many ideas about the gatekeeper being the culprit; it should be in reference someplace.

I still hold Mab as suspect number one though; some of the comments in CD:

- she knows what Harrys apartment looks like
- she knew about bob all along
- sidhe can walk thru thresholds

all seem to me to be less cluebats and more of " good grief, haven't you all solved this one by now?" On Jim's part
agreed i figure mab wanted harry to find molly  ;)

Offline Tarion

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Re: The Gatekeeper fixed LC and other PG musings [spoilers up to CD]
« Reply #6 on: February 12, 2013, 01:29:01 AM »
Personally, I'm a strong proponent of Ebenezer, given that we know he knows how to get into Harry's basement, that he can break the Laws of Magic (and thus frolic against the currents of time to his heart's content), was in Chicago at the time and had an interest in protecting Harry.  I'll try to put up a thread with all of the evidence for the Index later. 
 
I still think Mab's a better fit, overall. 

Offline wyltok

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Re: The Gatekeeper fixed LC and other PG musings [spoilers up to CD]
« Reply #7 on: February 12, 2013, 01:24:37 PM »
well first its explicit that thomas was home, not that he saw anything or remembers seeing it.

It's also explicit that Thomas was utterly freaked out. He had a shotgun waiting when Harry was opening the door. Keep in mind, this is after Dead Beat, so Thomas knows about the wards, and knows exactly what they can do.

For him to be worried means that he no longer trusts the wards, which means that something made him not trust them. The alternatives are someone getting inside the house without activating the wards, or some sort of spell getting to him through the wards.

second its rather more complex of a spell than any of those on your list.

I'm not certain I would agree that the Loup Garou circle was a simple magical construct, really. But in any case, let's up the complexity then.
- Luccio figured out what the Dark Hallow was going to do (kill a bunch of people) before Harry even got halfway through the explanation of what the Dark Hallow was.
- It took Bob almost no time at all to figure out the mechanics of the Bloodline Curse once he was at Chicken Pizza. He could even give Harry all sorts of little details about it.

So even with a once-in-a-millenium sort of spell (or a whole school of magic you've only ever seen used from the outside and never used yourself), figuring it out is not all that difficult for one of the wise.

not saying he couldn't have done it but threshold+ knowing LC existed+ knowing how it worked and finally knowing it was messed up in the first place makes it unlikely.


That doesn't just make it unlikely for the Gatekeeper, though. That plain makes it unlikely for everyone! Even for Mab, really. I find it hard to believe that she would spend the time looking into Harry's house that Lea did (she's kinda busy running an empire at war, you know?), so the idea that she discovered the existence of the flaw while Bob and Harry were working on LC is ludicrous to me (plus, it's one thing to watch someone while they sleep, another to watch an active wizard when he's wizarding and not be noticed by his supernatural senses).

But we know it happened; someone did fix Little Chicago, so the question becomes, who is the most likely to overcome that list of hurdles? And I still say the Gatekeeper has better means and opportunity than Mab does.

if forsight is the only thing rashid has that puts him on the list one could argue it was odin keeping an eye on his next 'apprentice' as he obviously has had his eye on harry awhile.

[...]

wanted to add, odin as kringle knows of all human deeds and misdeeds so its possible he knew abot it

It's not just foresight, it's interest. The Gatekeeper made sure to involve himself in the situation from the very first moment, and Odin, to put it simply, didn't show a whisker. At the same time, from the Doylist perspective, for Odin to be involved, the author must have made some mention of it. Like, say, the scene where The protagonist and his talking head sit down and discuss Rashid's motivation in getting involved in the case. That's not a clue bat, that's a freaking neon sign.

my main problem with it being any forsight or anything but a possible Novikov self-consistency principle time warp is any forsight gained would be in direct response to learning harry popped his head, meaning it 1000 times more likely to happen again (per odins explanation) so forsight being a factor is really iffy. how would they gain the required knowledge on LC without contaminating the timeline?

I'm afraid that the Novikov self-consistency principle has been proven in the book to not apply to prophecy / foresight. Examples include:

- The prophecy in Death Masks only included two alternatives: Harry dies, or the Knights all die. Neither of these happens.

- Abby replied to a question before he got a chance to make it, and her reply stopped him from making it. Meaning, the timeline where he asked the question never happened in the first place.

- The Gatekeeper used some sort of ability to determine Harry's chances near the end of Turn Coat. This ability gave two different results. If the ability is foresight / time-based (as the dialogue in that scene implies) then it saw two different futures.

Currently my internet at home is down. Will reply to the others during my lunch break.
Every time you do something, somebody says: "(gasp!) That has this implication and this implication and that implication!" and you go like: "No, what I really meant was, the curtains were blue."
- Jim Butcher at Space City Con, 2013

wizard nelson

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Re: The Gatekeeper fixed LC and other PG musings [spoilers up to CD]
« Reply #8 on: February 12, 2013, 02:10:35 PM »
umm thomas was also groggy and grabbing his face like he just had a bad dream. givin the very similar nature of WC demon and half reds i'd say its possible to intrance either.
        its actually far more likely for mab to know as acting godmother, i think your forgetting rashid was unsure of harry till atl TC. mab was in better position and with more power and incentive.
Quote
At the same time, from the Doylist perspective, for Odin to be involved, the author must have made some mention of it.
like its totally mentioned that the FBI headquarters links up with erlking in FM? oh wait... its a mystery so laying everything on the table and making it obvious is kinda lame.
Quote
I'm afraid that the Novikov self-consistency principle has been proven in the book to not apply to prophecy / foresight.
not sure what telling you past self harry popped his head has to do with novikov?point was if GK got his knowledge from forsight then it would have been WAY too much, list-LC exists, it has flaw
« Last Edit: February 12, 2013, 02:35:03 PM by wizard nelson »

wizard nelson

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Re: The Gatekeeper fixed LC and other PG musings [spoilers up to CD]
« Reply #9 on: February 12, 2013, 02:35:00 PM »
(continuation) and harry popped his head. now if harry already popped his head then GK can't change this. if rashid only(name another way he'd know?) knows from forsight he cant change this per odin as it already happened and he learned it ATF. as someone else pointed our GK  doesn't screw around like that with time, pretty sure thats directly against the 'current' to even attempt the impossible of changing the past.
 :o
not entirely sure how to respond to alot of what you said because(and maybe we're just on two totally different wavelengths) i don't understand its relevance? it does seem to me your twisting facts to suit theory instead of theory to fit facts, a holmesian no, no btw.

wizard nelson

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Re: The Gatekeeper fixed LC and other PG musings [spoilers up to CD]
« Reply #10 on: February 12, 2013, 02:41:09 PM »
Quote
- Abby replied to a question before he got a chance to make it, and her reply stopped him from making it. Meaning, the timeline where he asked the question never happened in the first place.
i really should sleep before trying to explain things but.... this isn't changing the past. abby sees possibilities and uhhh argh!
just go watch that nicholas cage movie knowing (or know?) it has everything you need to figure it out yourself.

Offline wyltok

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Re: The Gatekeeper fixed LC and other PG musings [spoilers up to CD]
« Reply #11 on: February 12, 2013, 05:44:30 PM »
First, let me just say, big kudos to you for laying this all out so clearly. I know it takes a buttload of work and is really difficult, so give yourself a pat on the back. Reading your post and then rereading, I have a couple of probably minor questions for you.

1) Regarding your point that Rashid made sure to come inside to fix LC when Bob wasn't around, how could he know that Bob wouldn't be there? As noted in Serack's post, Harry rarely took Bob on investigations and Bob's role at the convention that night was pretty minimal. So it would be hard to know that Harry would take Bob with him. Unless Rashid saw that too with his foresight, but I guess I don't imagine it giving the wielder that kind of small detail (like what Harry is carrying in his backpack when he leaves his apartment). But I guess I could be wrong about that.

2) When Rashid sees something with his foresight that he wants to change, we have seen his actions be as minimally intrusive as possible, the bare minimum he could get away with and still be effective. I'm thinking of his very vague direction to Harry about "black magic is afoot" rather than "go stop Molly Carpenter from using mind magic against her friends and being abducted by Winter" (or something equally clear but meeting his goals--maybe he wanted Molly abducted.) So why would Rashid act directly here rather than just sending Harry another vague message like "you might want to double-check all your magical items before you use them"? It seems out of character.

3) Why would Rashid keep his actions a secret from Harry? If it was okay for him to direclty intervene, what difference would it make if Harry knew?

Thank you for the kudos!

Let me begin by commenting on something you said on your second question, which took me somewhat by surprised. In it you expressed that the Gatekeeper's actions tend to be the bare minimum that'll be effective. I find myself disagreeing with this view. We've seen the Gatekeeper act in 4 books (Summer Knight, Proven Guilty, Turn Coat, Cold Days). The only time where he held back from acting directly was in Proven Guilty, in my opinion. Every other time, he seems to do as much as his duties (and limitations) allow.

In Summer Knight, he tracked Harry throughtout the whole test, and then gave Harry a bunch of tools that helped him handle the upcoming fight, in fact risking Harry's life by doing so (since it could be argued that he interfered with Harry's test). I would guess that the reason he didn't go with Harry to the war is that with the Fae Queens and Ladies in Chicago-over-Chicago, the Wall was understaffed and he was needed there.

In Turn Coat, Rashid went and confronted Harry directly as soon as he knew what Harry was up to, and had quite the honest talk with him. There's no way for Rashid to have been part of the arresting party, however: he couldn't step foot on the island, so he wouldn't have been able to help with the ambush. Even then, he made sure to send a message to help diminish the amount of deaths in the ensuing fight.

In Ghost Story, we finally find what exactly keeps Rashid busy so much of the time that he can't help Harry more. Even then, Rashid promises to help Harry as much as he can, though he admits that with his duties, it amounts to getting Harry re-instated in the Council.

When it comes to Rashid, I'm usually reminded of that scene in Blood Rites where Lord Raith first mind-whammies Murphy. Harry learns the painful lesson that even with phenomenal power, sometimes the best one can do is... nothing at all.

With regards to your questions, I actually think they all tie together. Read again Bob example of how a message from the future is generally meant to change something else, rather than whatever gets mentioned (in the example, the car theft gets mentioned, when the intention is to avoid a murder instead).

If we look at the chain of events, without Rashid's message vs. with Rashid's message, Harry still would have received Molly's call, but I believe it is only Rashid's warning that makes Harry worried enough about Splattercon!!! that he's willing to risk taking Bob with him to investigate. So by giving a mysterious message rather than a clear one, Rashid accomplishes his mission of creating a window of opportunity to fix LC, and since he's a hands-on kind of guy, he goes and fixes it himself.
Every time you do something, somebody says: "(gasp!) That has this implication and this implication and that implication!" and you go like: "No, what I really meant was, the curtains were blue."
- Jim Butcher at Space City Con, 2013

Offline aShorty21

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Re: The Gatekeeper fixed LC and other PG musings [spoilers up to CD]
« Reply #12 on: February 12, 2013, 08:47:35 PM »
Are we ignoring the Time Traveling Harry as an option? That has always been my favorite. If I get time in the near future I'll do my best to explain how I think TTHarry fits all the OP scenarios the most.

An aside: Any being that is good enough to get into the sub-basement from the NN is good enough to fix LC without Thomas even knowing they were there. So Thomas would not have to know about about the fixer in that instance.
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Offline Griffyn612

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Re: The Gatekeeper fixed LC and other PG musings [spoilers up to CD]
« Reply #13 on: February 12, 2013, 09:07:38 PM »
Are we ignoring the Time Traveling Harry as an option? That has always been my favorite. If I get time in the near future I'll do my best to explain how I think TTHarry fits all the OP scenarios the most.

An aside: Any being that is good enough to get into the sub-basement from the NN is good enough to fix LC without Thomas even knowing they were there. So Thomas would not have to know about about the fixer in that instance.

We've got 2 threads talking about TTH right now, so I decided to leave this one alone.  I didn't want to de-rail the discussion of the GK theory with another theory.

Offline aShorty21

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Re: The Gatekeeper fixed LC and other PG musings [spoilers up to CD]
« Reply #14 on: February 12, 2013, 09:19:47 PM »
We've got 2 threads talking about TTH right now, so I decided to leave this one alone.  I didn't want to de-rail the discussion of the GK theory with another theory.

Gotcha, so TTHarry being a posiblity isn't a reason to discount The Gatekeeper as one.
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