Connections pt. 2: Suspect for SF-FM-BR-LH (Cold Days Spoilers)

[Elegast]

The Red Court was behind SF-FM-LH

Intro

Having read the two threads by Cenphx (part 1, part 2), I'm still unable to say who is behind all the plots in SF-FM-LH. In some ways I'm even more puzzled, with new possible suspect being proposed. Here is the list:

• Raith
• Arriana
• Cowl
• Mavra
• Erkling

I did not put Luccio, as I see it as different version of the Cowl hypothesis (reference to a "he" in Fool Moon).

This an attempt to make the case for the Reds. I don't have proof they are the ones, but feel it's a real possibility.

New WOJ

First there is a new WOJ found by Knnn in the LHK yahoo group:

Appearance: before or after losing the glamor? An Ash quote comes to mind "You got real ugly."

...it had a bat-like face, horrid and ugly, the head too big for its body.  Gaping, hungry jaws. Its shoulders were hunched, powerful, and membranous wings stretched between the joints of its almost skeletal arms. Flabby black breasts hung before it, spilled out of the black dress that no longer did anything to make it look more feminine. Its eyes were wide, black, and staring, and a kind of leathery, slimy hide covered its flesh, like an inner tube lathered with Vaseline...

Powers: unknown, but enough to scare Harry who does things like float elevators on wind at the drop of a hat with a minor charm bracelet.

Their ability to mask themselves could potentially be used to look like someone else--or /you/, for that matter. They also have narcotic saliva that renders a victim passive while the vamp feeds, and is addictive and habit-forming, to boot. They get the standard vampire package of 'stronger and faster than you,' and Harry harbors some suspicions that looking one of them in the eyes could be bad for him and way bad for someone without his
kind of mental defenses.

That's only the Red Court's vampires, though, and they're just one of the vampire factions. They just happen to be the first ones Harry makes want to kill him. The White Court, Black Court, and Jade Court are way different.

/shamelessselfpromotion off

Jim
LALA
AAA

That WOJ seems to imply that the Reds where we ones who tried to kill Harry first. Not the Whites, not the Blacks.

Secondly, we should consider when those books were written. When Jim wrote Storm Front, he wasn't sure he was going to get published, and he had spent just one week plotting the whole serie. So there is a high probability that some of the minor characters described didn't even exist at the time.

For instance, the Erlking, Mavra, Cowl may have not existed when Storm Front was written. (BTW, if anyone as more info on how the first books were written, plz share).

The reds were already described in Storm Front, so it would fit.

Storm Front

The Reds are the most credible culprit. The only absolute connection to one of the suspect is the bloodcurse, which is known by the Red Court:

As a former priest, Martin must have known of the bloodline curse, and its potential for destruction.

Bianca knew nothing, as she was a low level operative. That changed after SF:

She paused and then said, “In a way, I’m grateful to you, Dresden. If I hadn’t wanted so very badly to kill you, I would never have amassed the power and the contacts that I have. I never would have been elevated to the Court.” She gestured to the crowd of vampires below, the courtyard, the darkness. “In a way, all of this is your doing.”

Fool Moon

No direct link to anyone.

Love Hurts

The belts are possessed by a Rampire.

Why it's not Raith

Raith didn't know that Harry was an anchor of the curse before BR, and the plot in LH had the aim to harm the WC. And it would mean the WOJ is wrong, as the White were not the first.

Why it's not the Erlking

The Erkling is savage, not evil. He has no motivation what so ever to attack the White court (LH). It's improbable is infected, and Nemesis seems to be part of these plots.

Why it's not Mavra

The new WOJ says that the Reds are the first trying to kill Harry

The role of Cowl

Cowl was deeply involved with the Reds, and heavy-weight division wizard. I suspect he gave some magical support: helped trained Sells, made the Belts.

The role of Nemesis

Kravos is so insane (suicide for revenge?) that he was probably infected. It's also possible for the FBI guy and Sells. That fits with the Reds: Bianca helped spread the infection, Arriana may have been infected. The Nemesis connection also significantly weakens the Erkling hypothesis, as he's most probably non infected.

Motivation: killing Harry

What was the aim of the plots?

The WOJ says it, to kill Harry.

In Storm Front, the attacks by Sells had a very high probability of killing Harry: Sell was going to try, and Morgan would probably do it even sooner.

In Fool Moon, someone pointed Denton toward Harry, and pushed him to break the circle protecting the Loug-Garou.

Question: why the plots were so indirect?
Answer: Because Nemesis/the reds didn't have complete control, so each one still acted by its nature. Aurora still wanted to prevent bloodshed, Denton still wanted to fight crime, Kravos/Sells still wanted to become powerful wizards. They were not puppets.

Last WOJ

Q: Have we met the people who created the Hexenwolf belts yet?

A: That's another "I'm not gonna tell you" question. I will say, "kind of," "not really," and "yes." But we'll get into more of that during Cold Days as well.

I believe it was simply a reference to Nemesis.

If not: kind of=Cowl, not really=Nemesis, yes=Arriana.

[wizard nelson]

so... you added joe but didn't make it so i could change my vote..

[Ms Duck]

my thought of 'who  is behind' is a flawed calculation.. its not necc just one person.

We Know Mavra was behind BR and DB. we can suspect she was involved in GP

we know Cowl was involved in GP, DB, WN, and now likely CD

we can be almost 100% certain the erlking was involved in some way in FM and LH, but we can also assume that he wasnt the instigator- he said so. his only interest was messing with Odin. Somone paid him.

we need a secret wizard:

to teach in SF and GP
to deal with the Erlking
to summon the outsiders

either Mavra or Cowl could be involved. possibly both; they have common interests and may work together but they also have reasons for backstabbing each other.

[Elegast]

my thought of 'who  is behind' is a flawed calculation.. its not necc just one person.

We Know Mavra was behind BR and DB. we can suspect she was involved in GP

we know Cowl was involved in GP, DB, WN, and now likely CD

we can be almost 100% certain the erlking was involved in some way in FM and LH, but we can also assume that he wasnt the instigator- he said so. his only interest was messing with Odin. Somone paid him.

we need a secret wizard:

to teach in SF and GP
to deal with the Erlking
to summon the outsiders

either Mavra or Cowl could be involved. possibly both; they have common interests and may work together but they also have reasons for backstabbing each other.

The new WOJ says it wasn't Mavra in SF. And the Erkling created love belts? Really?

[Ms Duck]

The new WOJ says it wasn't Mavra in SF. And the Erkling created love belts? Really?

why not? a lot of those old primal gods were alla bout the dualaties.. Freya was goddess of both love and war. He the sidhe of the dark side of summer, of passion 'red in tooth and claw'; of the hunt, of the dark desire. of need.

who else for dark forbidden love? for forcing love on people? for love that causes madness and death?

its sure as heck aint Mab- shes all about the cold reason and implacable logic. Nor Lilly either- shes all about healing and gentle growth.

Erlking is very much a sex god- all the sidhe are. but hes not a nice one.

 

[Cenphx]

Elegast-thats really well thought out!               Here's the question nagging at me about using the RCVs-dont you think its a little anticlimatic to build up the conspiracy and the mystery of the connections between these events, then kill off the antagonists before they are revealed as being responsible? So when the curtain gets pulled back on the goings-on in these early books, its really not going to matter because the bad guys are long dead?

[GrandPanjandrum]

I think everyone is missing the connection between Storm Front and Fool Moon.  The latter is just an escalation of the former.  They both are reflective of something that took place about a decade earlier.

Approximately 10 years prior to Storm Front:
Gregor is attempting a coven.  At some point, a warden of the White Council shows up and tells him to knock it off according to Charity.  This is likely Justin DuMourne or Simon Pietrovich looking for a patsy.  They found one in spades and inform Mavra.

Mavra goes to Siriothrax and asks if he is interested in acquiring Excalibur for his horde.  He’s interested, but puzzled as to how she could offer.  Mavra states that the sword will come to him.  He only has to provide the Word of Kemmerler to her once it does, for she happens to know it is part of his horde.  She tells him to cooperate with Gregor.  The arrogance of dragons never once suggests that he would lose against the wielder of Excalibur.

Soon after, Mavra shows up and starts mentoring Gregor in Black Magic, with the ambition of gaining the attention of the White God.  Soon sacrifices are taking place to Siriothrax tempting the White God to send his Sword of the Cross (specifically Excalibur).  Yet, he doesn’t come.  However, when he threatens to sacrifice a virgin to the dragon (come on, she married Michael…and he’s a prude, plus her name is Charity), Siriothrax is about to take a bite, and Michael shows up with Excalibur.

This is a win/win for Mavra.  If Michael falls, the dragon gets Excalibur and she gets The Word of Kemmerler.  If the dragon falls, she can gain the Word of Kemmerler from the Estate sale as well as other pieces of his horde.  If they are both injured sufficiently, she may walk away with both. 

What Mavra doesn’t count on is a petty thief working for John Marcone watching the obituaries in the newspaper.  Eduardo Anthony Mendoza (aka Bony Tony)  sees a death of a single male (Siriothrax) and proceeds to secure a key of some sort to a storage locker not opened since WW2.  He probably nicked it from a safe in the house.  Obviously, that’s where Kemmerler had stored Kemmerler’s Word and Nazi loot.  At this point, it is a retirement plan as he is planning on retiring in the next 10 years.  Marcone knows nothing about this little action on the side at this point.

10 years later (Just before Storm Front)
Mavra is livid, but she methodically researches who controls crime in the area around Siriothrax’s residence and eventually learns that it is Marcone’s territory.  She confronts him directly, which is likely Marcone’s introduction into the magical scene (he’s probably been wearing a huge crucifix ever since).  When Marcone tells her that he has no idea what she’s talking about, he is being truthful.  Mavra threatens to destroy his livelihood and take away his little kingdom.  Obviously, this doesn’t sit well with Marcone.  At the same time he decides to do a little research into his employees to determine who might have nicked this odd book.  It doesn’t take long to learn that Bony Tony Mendoza is shopping around two Monets, a Van Gogh and some other stuff including a weird book on necromancy.   As a peace offering, Marcone gets all three paintings, and Bony Tony can sell the rest for favors past.

Storm Front
Mavra starts her wave of terror to intimidate Marcone still assuming he has Kemmerler's Word (which is about the worst thing she could do).  Three Eye hits the streets (which was part of the black magic she is teaching Victor Sells...the other being the blood curse, which she will present to the Red Court in good time after working out the kinks) and its basis is to cut into Marcone’s profits in the drug trade.  Bianca, who controls the prostitution in the city and wants more, provides hair/blood/focus object for Tommy Thom from his constant visits to her girls.  Also, we learn later that Mavra is tutoring Bianca in magic in Grave Peril.  It starts well before that.

Marcone decides to explore his options, and takes Harry for a ride in his limo.  He starts off by suggesting Harry take a vacation (paid) and let Marcone deal with something “on his side of the fence.”  Initially, Marcone thinks this is something he can handle, and he doesn’t want Harry airing his dirty laundry in public (by exposing Nazi loot and theft).  He, also, approaches Harry for the first time to be an employee.  It doesn't go well for Marcone.  At this point, Marcone is a piker in the magic world, and doesn’t realize just what’s out there, and what Mavra is capable of. 

Marcone, eventually, sits back and lets Harry take care of business.  End of threat?  No way.

Fool Moon
Fool Moon is about Mavra turning up the heat on Marcone (in a way, a continuation of Storm Front with different pressures).  First, she uses a talisman of the Erlking that was probably available in Siriothrax’s estate sale to create the Hexenwolf belts.  These belts are presented to an FBI team (probably under a thrall).  In the soulgaze between Harry and Denton there is quite a bit of attention paid to decay, black sludge, filth and dun-colored flies.  Harry believes this reflects a worn down cop.  He is an unreliable narrator in this case.  It is the coating provided by a Black Court vampire’s thrall.

The FBI team is another patsy, just like Gregor.  They are frustrated at being able to do nothing to get Marcone behind bars.  The Hexenwolf belts open up another option, but they lose control in the process.   Their first move is to kill Spike (a trusted Lt. of Marcone).  This is just turning up the pressure.   Marcone’s response is to try and add Harry to his staff again, even though he knows it would never happen.  He realizes that he’s in WAY over his head, and needs someone who understands the supernatural world.  One book later, Gard is at his side.

Mavra sets up an elaborate effort to scare the ever living crap out of John Marcone, and force him to turn over Kemmerler's Word (even though Bony Tony still has it).  She uses the adversarial relationship with MacFinn and the FBI (under thrall) to turn up the volume to 11.  Of course, it's also possible that Cowl got wind of Bony Tony trying to sell Kemmerler's Word by this time as have all the other Kemmerlerites.  If he passed this onto Mavra, she would not intervene with the FBI, who obviously planned on serving Marcone up to the Loup Garou.

Whatever the details at the end of Fool Moon, the pressure is off in Grave Peril (the next book) for two reasons.  One...Gard is there representing Monoc Securities.  Two...Bony Tony is likely taking bids on the black market removing Marcone from the picture, and entering Cowl into the picture as Mavra's representative.  However, the fact that Bony Tony uses a portable computer drive to hide the coordinates tells me that Marcone is advising him on the supernatural world.

[phoenixjustice]

theory

That is one of the best, and well thought out, theories I've heard yet! *claps* Kudos!

[wizard nelson]

Why it's not the Erlking

The Erkling is savage, not evil. He has no motivation what so ever to attack the White court (LH). It's improbable is infected, and Nemesis seems to be part of these plots.

well i've not read love hurts so can anyone explain how a red vamp was possessed by the belt or in the belts or whatever you mean.
but one thing apparently being overlooked here is the hexxen belts were possessed by a spirit of the hunt, though i don't agree with it being erl either this is a strong clue in his favor. he (usually) leads a bunch of hunter spirits after all...

[Cenphx]

Crazy coincidence. I just read 'I was a Teenage Bigfoot' for the first time. Harry is considering a vampire as th potential bad guy. When the spell hits, it knocks out the fancy thermometer and he says that only mortal magic causes problems like that with tech. So not vamps. So even though the RCV had a spy in the police station, that wasnt who was causing the phone to short out during SF--it was a mortal magic practitioner at the police station.

[knnn]

I think everyone is missing the connection between Storm Front and Fool Moon.  The latter is just an escalation of the former.  They both are reflective of something that took place about a decade earlier.

GrandPanjandrum -- you just made my list of people to follow.

[Elegast]

I think everyone is missing the connection between Storm Front and Fool Moon.  The latter is just an escalation of the former.  They both are reflective of something that took place about a decade earlier.

Thx for making a Mavra theory.

I like the connection with the paintings.

Question: who is the 'he' in Fool Mon?

[Ms Duck]

my only quible is i think its fairly certain Mavra knew the word would be found in chicago prior to BR.. hence the whole trap for Harry and Murphy.

[GrandPanjandrum]

my only quible is i think its fairly certain Mavra knew the word would be found in chicago prior to BR.. hence the whole trap for Harry and Murphy.

Well, that's where it gets convaluded alright.  But, I think the relationship between Mavra and Cowl is similar to the one he had with the other Kemmerlerites.  They pretend to work together, but they'll never buy each other a beer.

Plus, you have to assume that everyone knew that Grevane had the highest bid for Kemmerler's Word.  And, all the Kemmerlerites decided (probably well in advance) that Chicago would be where they would pull off the Darkhallow (due to its Lae lines as well as the historical artifacts available at the time).    Of course, if they knew a certain wizard would animate a dinosaur, they might have reconsidered. 

Summary:  Cowl is on Team Mavra, but he is also on Team Cowl...

[UKlvrBM]

GrandPanjandrum -- you just made my list of people to follow.

Seconded!!!!