Connections pt. 2: Suspect for SF-FM-BR-LH (Cold Days Spoilers)

[Ms Duck]

Ms. Duck- re Molly and her magic being labelled delicate, too. I think you are right. Sigh. Well, the evidence for Elaine isnt strong, other than that and she's a powerful female wizard and the female part isnt even necessary.  In your theory, who do you think got the belts from the Erlking? How would you explain the connection to the love hurts belts? Did someone leanr how to make them based on the Erlkings design?

mehtinsk they were bought. the sidhe love bargains, and they love causing a mess.

lets say the reds want help. who better to make a bargain with then the erlking? hes not exactly mr nice. and he keeps his deals. and it would have the added bonus of letting him annoy his rival, Odin.

his statement in changes was very oddly specifc to that point-

as to the tutur, im betting on mavra. she had a long standing plan to cause a war between the red court  and the white council- they are both old enemies of hers- and we know shes involved.

[knnn]

I am most intrigued by the WoJ:

Q: Have we met the people who created the Hexenwolf belts yet?

A: That's another "I'm not gonna tell you" question. I will say, "kind of," "not really," and "yes." But we'll get into more of that during Cold Days as well.

I don't see the second part referencing anything but Nemesis, that would fill out either "kind of" or "not really" (probably the latter).  Not really sure who could be the "yes" part.

FWIW, I personally never saw the Erlking as the origin of the wofl-belts.  There is a certain "demonic" vibe going on there, something I don't get at all from the Erlking.

Other options include:

- Arianna: Strong Raith and RC connection, but maybe not powerful enough as a wizard.  Also unsure of why she would take an interest in Chicago so far back, unless she was following up on Maggie's progeny.

- Tessa: Certainly has the magical capability and a "demonic" background, but the Raith connection is weaker.

----------

Personally, I'd vote for Mavra. 

- Per the first two books, there's someone going around giving people magical help, and then in GP we see Mavra onscreen helping out Bianca and Kravos. 

- Mavra has a grudge against the Whites, so belts ain't a bad thing.

- One of the PG theories is that Sandra Marlin (person who suggest that Molly use fear) is an agent for someone trying get Molly to use black magic (same as Victor Sells and Kravos).  Molly met Sandra at a homeless shelter, giving us a definitive Mavra connection.  Note that this might be the connection Jim was referencing when he mentioned that "someone figured it out".

[Cenphx]

I hope we learn more about the Black Court soon, especially about Mavra and her capabilities. If she was a wizard before she was turned, does the magic she does now still count as 'mortal'? I would guess not, but who knows?          I will say, I dont think the motive of our suspect is RCV vs WCV, or BCV vs everyone else. I think we've seen exactly the goal--the dissemination of magic. Why? Im not sure. I wonder if it has something to do with making it easier for Outsiders to get in.

[Elegast]

I am most intrigued by the WoJ:
I don't see the second part referencing anything but Nemesis, that would fill out either "kind of" or "not really" (probably the latter).  Not really sure who could be the "yes" part.

I had the same thoughts. The quote was made after Ghost Story, so the vast ajority of the culprits don't fit the "not really" requirement. That being said, it was a live interview, so I'm not sure if it is wise to parse every single word.

[Ms Duck]

I am most intrigued by the WoJ:
I don't see the second part referencing anything but Nemesis, that would fill out either "kind of" or "not really" (probably the latter).  Not really sure who could be the "yes" part.

FWIW, I personally never saw the Erlking as the origin of the wofl-belts.  There is a certain "demonic" vibe going on there, something I don't get at all from the Erlking.

Other options include:

- Arianna: Strong Raith and RC connection, but maybe not powerful enough as a wizard.  Also unsure of why she would take an interest in Chicago so far back, unless she was following up on Maggie's progeny.

- Tessa: Certainly has the magical capability and a "demonic" background, but the Raith connection is weaker.

----------

Personally, I'd vote for Mavra. 

- Per the first two books, there's someone going around giving people magical help, and then in GP we see Mavra onscreen helping out Bianca and Kravos. 

- Mavra has a grudge against the Whites, so belts ain't a bad thing.

- One of the PG theories is that Sandra Marlin (person who suggest that Molly use fear) is an agent for someone trying get Molly to use black magic (same as Victor Sells and Kravos).  Molly met Sandra at a homeless shelter, giving us a definitive Mavra connection.  Note that this might be the connection Jim was referencing when he mentioned that "someone figured it out".

that woj can also be read as confirming erlking, as before cold days the connection between odin and the wild hunt was only suspected; now that the two are competitors for it is confirmed

[Elegast]

So it could be:

Raith
Arriana
Cowl
Mavra
Erlking
Luccio
Elaine

Such madness...

Cenphx, can I add a poll to this thread?

[Cenphx]

Cenphx, can I add a poll to this thread?

Absolutely!!

[Cenphx]

Two additional things I thought of again when I was rereading everyone's posts here. 1) With regard to Rashid examining Luccio, such that she isn't likely to be infected. I think we were told Rashid's ability to find Nemesis isn't perfect specifically because it will fail at some critical point. But I concede this is a point to keep in mind indicating Luccio might not be infected. 2) With regard to the RCVs or a particular one being our suspect, from a storytelling perspective, I wouldn't think the bad guy behind all these acts would already be dead and not be a player in the BAT.

I really hoped making the connections between these events would narrow our list of suspects, but it doesn't seem like that's happening. 

[Elegast]

Two additional things I thought of again when I was rereading everyone's posts here. 1) With regard to Rashid examining Luccio, such that she isn't likely to be infected. I think we were told Rashid's ability to find Nemesis isn't perfect specifically because it will fail at some critical point. But I concede this is a point to keep in mind indicating Luccio might not be infected. 2) With regard to the RCVs or a particular one being our suspect, from a storytelling perspective, I wouldn't think the bad guy behind all these acts would already be dead and not be a player in the BAT.

I really hoped making the connections between these events would narrow our list of suspects, but it doesn't seem like that's happening. 

I'm not  a fan of the Luccio theory, but there is another clue supporting it:

Peabody nodded. "Wizard Luciozzi."

"Sabbatical," said the blue-bearded and tattooed wizard behind me. Ebenezar frowned, and one of his cheeks twitched in a nervous tic.

That was the year the war started...

[Mars447]

Eh.... that's very, very thin.

If you are to create a poll, be sure to include an option for "None of the Above".  The world is large enough that I'm sure there are players in the game that Harry has not met yet.

[Cenphx]

I know that my gut instinct has been to hold both Elaine and Luccio in very, very high suspicion, so anytime I connect something to them, I worry about it being confirmation bias more than pure theorizing based solely on the facts in front of me. That's why I put it in front of you all to shoot holes in! Keeps me grounded in reality. But that list of unanswered questions I included at the end of my rant about Luccio seemed more compelling to me as I went on. She really is in a position to have caused much of everything. Does anyone find this important or am I just seeing it that way cause my gut tells me she's bad news?

Re: Lucciozzi. I noticed that, too. I've even wondered, based on that (plus the idea that the BC was trying to get a member on the Senior Council and when this failed because Eb stepped up, they repeated the process by having Luccio kill LaFortier; plus the fact that Luccio and Luciozzi are the same name, just with a regional place indicator added to one), whether Lucciozzi is Cowl and Luccio is Kumori. That's pretty scant evidence to go on.

There doesn't seem to be any reason to eliminate Mavra outright. Possibly not being able to call up Outsiders might be a point against her, but otherwise she could work. [HEY--that might be a good question to ask JIm-something innocuous seeming so that he would answer it, but which might help rule her in or out as the suspect. If a mortal wizard is made a BCV, is their magic still mortal or is it considered something else?]

[Cenphx]

Eh.... that's very, very thin.

If you are to create a poll, be sure to include an option for "None of the Above".  The world is large enough that I'm sure there are players in the game that Harry has not met yet.

Which part is thin? (and relatedly, did you read the other thread where I lay out the connections themselves? I ask only because this thread is mainly for the WAG and speculation based off the information I provided in the other thread. So there may not be much hard evidence in this thread, but the other one will make your eyes bleed there so much to read.)

[wizard nelson]

don't forget injun joe! i still say it was him in the dining room, with a spork lol

[Cenphx]

don't forget injun joe! i still say it was him in the dining room, with a spork lol

Oh, yeah. Let me see if I can add it for you. I've never added a poll to my threads before...

[Ms Duck]

heres the woj about figuring out the belts:

“Are we going to find out where the Hexenwolf belts came from in Fool Moon?”
Several folks have already worked it out, actually. The pieces are there if you want to put them together, though eventually I’ll state it outright.

its from early 2010, pretty much exactly when i remembered.