[CD spoilers] Proven Guilty

[Serack]

^this^

Consider that we're dealing with beings who are playing a chess game across the universe, and that given the resources available to both sides brute-force is almost never going to work.  Also, since both are neigh-infallible predicting machines, each will be continually shutting down the other's gambits, ending each round in a stalemate.  The only way one of them can really get an advantage is by playing a game where not all the variables can be predicted --- by either side.

In practice what this means is that both sides are playing with mortal pawns while only subtly using their influence (which would be countered by the other side), and taking big chances (e.g. risking the Archive) in the hopes the their limited vision will triumph. 

Interesting enough, one can argue that the fact that mortals have free will is the key point of the battle -- in a sense, those minor decisions are the only ones that are unpredictable by both Mab and Nemesis, and so success or failure of their eternal conflict hinges precisely on that.

-- This might even serve to explain why Mab smiles every time Harry stands up to her.  The fact that he isn't bowing down to her desires means that he still is unpredictable to an extent -- he is still useful as a pawn.

I like.  I like a lot.  Except Harry is no pawn, he's a KNIGHT!

This reallllly meshes with this WoJ btw:

There is a rather long discussion as to what constitutes free will as an element in the back end of this book (Ghost Story).  Is what is presented and discussed as a concept, your own philosophy?  How did that come about, the idea that free will is making your choices based upon truth.
Right, and in the Dresden Files universe it's a vital component.  It's what devides mortals, human beings, from everybody else.  Is that we're the ones that have elements of both good and evil inside us, we're the ones who get to chose what to do.  And because that's who we are, we make the world around us through those choices.  The forces of the universe, these cosmic forces are always ballanced against one another, and we're the ones who can tilt that see-saw one way or another with our actions.  I think that is largely true in real life, but it is certainly a very fun, dramatic use of the concept of free will for writing with.  It's very important in general, and that's why Harry, as he's gotten more mature, he's striven so much harder to make sure that other people have a choice, you know, he's not trying to make choices for people any more, he's trying to make sure that they know what's going on, and can make an informed choice.

[Elegast]

- An interesting thing would be to look back at Jim's CIA response to Neuro's original post in light of our current theories.  It might be that there is some cryptic phrase in there that might suddenly click.

- Come to think of it, there was also that WoJ about "exactly two things correct" regarding demonreach.  We might have better intelligence about that one.

There is also the other element of how Harry got into Arctis Tor to consider in each case.  There's nothing defending Arctis Tor but some fetches, because something, armed with Hellfire, took out a small army of goblins and a pack of trolls. 

(Given that Harry knows Hellfire, I think we can rule out the Scarecrow's unfetchlike powers being Denarian-based, fwiw.)

This could have been a serious attack that failed, in which case, what stopped it ?  Do we think the fetches were able to stop a Denarian where all those goblins could not ? I don't, myself, and there's nobody else around Arctis Tor to have stopped them.  And furthermore, if it's an independent hostile attack, the timing is really excessively convenient to benefit Harry's mission.

The other option here is it was an attack that was meant to fail.  That Namshiel (or whoever it was) is working there, directly or indirectly, in the interests of what Mab wants by opening that hole in her defences for Harry and company to get through.

The old theory that the first attack was just a way to let Harry go thought the defenses.

Demonreach may not be friendly to humans but he is not violent to others. All the animals on the Island are welcome and make their homes there. While he may have a dark nature, nothing on the Island is corrupt or foul.

That was the wrong half.

Concerning the wink, I was thinking of that WOJ:

Also, it has probably occurred to more than one of you that if Mab was /really/ in trouble, she could have had the entire military might of Faerie back at the fortress in moments--exactly the way they *did* come back when Harry smacked the Winter Well with the fires of Summer.

Maybe Mab thought she could send them back in a few moments, so she had won. And then Meave unleashed her time manipulation spell, and she finally understood Nemesis's plan...

[Second Aristh]

Maybe I'm just misunderstanding, but I have a couple of questions Elegast

• It doesn't make sense for Mab to work so hard to get an extra candidate for Winter Lady if she already has Sarissa and doesn't know about Maeve being taken.
• Who exactly is the Eldest Fetch working for?

What about something like this scenario?

• Maeve is infected by Lea unbeknownst to Mab
• Mab notices Molly and sees potential for something (maybe another way to get a hook into Harry, maybe timey-wimey stuff)
  
• Mab sends a message through the Gatekeeper to Harry to look out for dark magic (building foundations for Molly's apprenticeship)
• Mab sends the fetches to keep Harry's attention focused away from the dark magic and eventually abduct Molly.
• Black Council operatives including a Denarian attack Arctis Tor, insulting Mab's pride and clearing out extra guards, instead of pressing further in, the attackers retreat before Mab steps in personally.
• The fetches bring Molly to the tower for whatever initiation Mab had planned for her.
• Mab originally was going to bring Molly back, but Harry and company are coming to rescue her anyway so Mab "leaves".
• In the fight, the Scarecrow reveals that Nemesis has infected him (by Maeve in Chicago), but Harry uses Summer fire to defeat him anyway.  Mab is smug about her underdog winning the fight.  To Mab, damaging the Wellspring is unfortunate, but she can immediately send her troops back.
• Passage of time is altered in Arctis Tor, leaving the Gates undefended for too long.  Maeve is the only possible culprit, and Mab realizes that she has been infected, hurting her and causing her fury.

Basically, PG follows pretty much what Mab wanted to happen, but she gets surprised by the attack on Arctis Tor.  Mab loses a bit of control of the situation, but thinks things are going to work out anyway in the end.  At the last moment, Nemesis outplays Mab and gets guards off the Outer Gates for a time.  Eventually, Mab figures out who betrayed her and is furious.

[THE_ANGRY_GAMER]

Molly is being prepared as a contingency - specifically, to replace Lily. Mab even says she'd have preferred it if Molly had gone Summer. In chess, you have to think three moves ahead and when you're playing the game that Mab and Nemesis are playing you have to be thinking fa, far further.

[Elegast]

Maybe I'm just misunderstanding, but I have a couple of questions Elegast

• It doesn't make sense for Mab to work so hard to get an extra candidate for Winter Lady if she already has Sarissa and doesn't know about Maeve being taken.
• Who exactly is the Eldest Fetch working for?

About the Eldest Fetch: he made Harry attack the well. So his loyalty depends on Mab's intention: did she wanted Harry to pour summer fire in the Winter well? If yes, then Eldest was a loyal minion. If no, then he was an infected traitor working for Nemesis.

Concerning Molly:  That part is not certain. Maeve was about to reveal herself in PG: she was telling everyone Mab was mad. The moment Mab heard of those rumors, she knows Maeve is infected. However, did Mab knew of Maeve's infection before PG? I think not. I believe Mab sent her to Chigaco to free the Way for Molly in Pell's theater, so she was still trusting her daughter.
      So, if she did not know about Maeve, why did she 'work so hard'?  We have some answers from in CD: Molly could have several uses: as a Summer Lady, as Winter Lady, or for 'another purpose'. Anyway the "work so hard" is overrated, PG was meant to be a minor operation for Mab: a few fetches for a week and her Lady for a day were all what was necessary to execute the plan.
     Then Nemesis decided to subvert it, and it went FUBAR.

Mab sends a message through the Gatekeeper to Harry to look out for dark magic (building foundations for Molly's apprenticeship)[/li][/list]

Possible but unnecessary: the Gatekeeper has some limited precog, that's the explanation given in the book by Bob, so I'll stay with the simplest explanation. And Harry would have tried to save Molly/stop murders of civilians anyway.

Black Council operatives including a Denarian attack Arctis Tor, insulting Mab's pride and clearing out extra guards, instead of pressing further in, the attackers retreat before Mab steps in personally.

Possible.

Mab originally was going to bring Molly back, but Harry and company are coming to rescue her anyway so Mab "leaves".

       That's an interesting possibility. However, the fetches's victims show that bringing Harry was in the plan from the beginning: the attack on Pell, the first one, was not random: it was to free the the theater where there was a Way to Artis Tor.
       The last set of fetches was sent by Mab according to WOJ:

Ask yourself why Mab had Molly brought in.

So Mab probably sent the first ones too. She wanted Molly to become Harry's apprentice and to protect her from the WC, so it was logical to bring him in.

       Still, I may be wrong, and the first fetches may have been working for Maeve.

• In the fight, the Scarecrow reveals that Nemesis has infected him (by Maeve in Chicago), but Harry uses Summer fire to defeat him anyway.  Mab is smug about her underdog winning the fight.  To Mab, damaging the Wellspring is unfortunate, but she can immediately send her troops back.
• Passage of time is altered in Arctis Tor, leaving the Gates undefended for too long.  Maeve is the only possible culprit, and Mab realizes that she has been infected, hurting her and causing her fury.

Strong possibility.

[Second Aristh]

Interesting.  I'm still puzzling through motivations and implications, but I think you are correct.

You're right about the Eldest Fetch.  We won't know if he was infected until we know if Mab intended for the Wellspring to get damaged.  So, if Mab sent all of the fetches, who was the target for the attack after Pell?  The attack when Maeve casts the ward and the myrrk sticks out as wanton bloodshed.  It feels inefficient for a Mab order.

Also for the Pell attack to secure the Way to Arctis Tor, the fetches needed the Way to get Molly to (and possibly back from) the Wellspring anyway.  It didn't have to be specifically for Harry.  I could see Maeve taking advantage of an open door by sending Harry to try to keep her mother off balance.

Is there another instance where time-travel is linked to the Gatekeeper?  I remember he waited for Michael in Molly's trial and did something with his eye in TC on the dock, but not any other ones off the top of my head.  Mab would see Rashid enough for her to send a message certainly.  I'll go with time travel for now, but if we don't get more evidence I might reconsider later on.

[Elegast]

You're right about the Eldest Fetch.  We won't know if he was infected until we know if Mab intended for the Wellspring to get damaged.  So, if Mab sent all of the fetches, who was the target for the attack after Pell?  The attack when Maeve casts the ward and the myrrk sticks out as wanton bloodshed.  It feels inefficient for a Mab order.

The attack n°2 was to make Harry send back the fectches. Harry was expecting the summoner to die, so he wouldn't have cast the redirection spell unless the fetches had already killed some civilians.

Also for the Pell attack to secure the Way to Arctis Tor, the fetches needed the Way to get Molly to (and possibly back from) the Wellspring anyway.  It didn't have to be specifically for Harry.  I could see Maeve taking advantage of an open door by sending Harry to try to keep her mother off balance.

Possible.

Is there another instance where time-travel is linked to the Gatekeeper?  I remember he waited for Michael in Molly's trial and did something with his eye in TC on the dock, but not any other ones off the top of my head.  Mab would see Rashid enough for her to send a message certainly.  I'll go with time travel for now, but if we don't get more evidence I might reconsider later on.

In Summer Knight, he can see some events from afar, in TC he can predict the future of the confrontation between Harry and the wardens.

"Looking for you," he said.

"You've been watching?"

He shook his head. "Call it listening. But I have had glimpses of you. And matters are worsening in Chicago."

"Stars and stones," I muttered and picked up my boots. "I don't have time to chat."

The Gatekeeper put a gloved hand on my arm. "But you do," he said. "My vision is limited, but I know that you have accomplished your mission for the Winter Queen. She will keep her end of the bargain, grant us safe passage through her realm. So far as the Council is concerned, that will be enough. You would be safe."

[knnn]

I just had a random thought on PG time travel, but didn't know where better to put it:

1) Harry always seems to have company/friends he relies on to do the job.  It gives him the ability to be "more", and from an author perspective, gives us great dialogue.

2) If there is a book that is seriously about time travel, then Harry cannot bring too many of his friends -- the more he brings, the harder it will be to keep things quiet and avoid paradox.

3) What if he just brings Molly?  Does the inclusion of a Winter Lady Molly working behind the scenes (veiled, etc.) work for PG?

...Is waiting for a book named "Veil Time".   

[Ms Duck]

One point: i wouldnt trust what Mab says about why she took Molly, if i were you. man was being elusive again. shes very good at not quite answering the question you ask.

the idea that Mab took up Molly because Harry trusted her has a major hole- Mab started the operation before Harry trusted her. ergo, shes either not telling the entire truth or she can see the future.

[Paladino]

About the Eldest Fetch: he made Harry attack the well. So his loyalty depends on Mab's intention: did she wanted Harry to pour summer fire in the Winter well? If yes, then Eldest was a loyal minion. If no, then he was an infected traitor working for Nemesis.

I find entirely plausible that Mab wanted Harry to hit the winter well, so his power over outsider magic would weaken nemesis hold on Lea, allowing Mab the chance she need to heal her, or just to speed things up. She just didn't plan for him to use Summer Fire.

One point: i wouldnt trust what Mab says about why she took Molly, if i were you. man was being elusive again. shes very good at not quite answering the question you ask.

the idea that Mab took up Molly because Harry trusted her has a major hole- Mab started the operation before Harry trusted her. ergo, shes either not telling the entire truth or she can see the future.

I think Mab have many plans going at the same time. That she saw potential on Molly, or just noticed Sandra Marling (BC/Nemesis) interest on her and wanted to know twart them and to know why they were interested in the first place. So she strikes to bunnies with one stone in kidnapping Molly, get to check her and bring Harry to Artic Tor.

[the neurovore of Zur-En-Aargh]

And in working my way back through CD-related posts, I just now found this, and gosh, I feel all vindicated.

There is one point I want to question, though; this discussion seems to be operating on the basis that the withdrawal of winter forces to protect the Wellspring affected the forces at the Outer Gates as well as those on the border with Summer.  Have we any firm textual basis for that, or is it an assumption ?

Alternatively, if it did turn out to be the case that forces were withdrawn from the Outer gates, and operating on the presumption that Lily can have been deceived by Maeve such that any information from Lily is suspect, is it workable that that withdrawal was what allowed Nemesis in, and everything previous to PG is still explainable in pre-Nemesis terms ?  (Aurora would seem to be the hardest case to find an alternate explanation for.)

Some part of my brain wants to think of Nemesis along with HWWB and Sharkface as Mac's three.

(I still don't work for the CIA, and I'm still totally going to ask Jim to let me use that quote on the cover if I ever sell any fiction.)

[Arjan]

One point: i wouldnt trust what Mab says about why she took Molly, if i were you. man was being elusive again. shes very good at not quite answering the question you ask.

the idea that Mab took up Molly because Harry trusted her has a major hole- Mab started the operation before Harry trusted her. ergo, shes either not telling the entire truth or she can see the future.

Not really. She usually does not tell all her reasons only those she thinks are enough to convince the listener. She prepared Molly for something but it was a long therm project taking years and Harry trusting Molly was an important confirmation. These plans can be adapted on the fly all the time. She saw the possibilities from the start but tyhe confirmation is important.

[ntribley]

These theories make a of sense. One of the things that always bothered me about the Arctis Tor scenario was that we were really not given any good reason in the book as to why the Fetches brought Molly to Arctis Tor in the first place. The only reason given was that in her they would really be able to chow down on a fear feast, but the truth was, Molly came through that incident apparently unscathed. Sure, she found out that she'd broken one of the Laws of Magic, was nearly beheaded, became Harry's apprentice, and found she had to live with her family and finish high school. But she certainly doesn't exhibit the signs that her psyche had been shredded by the fetches. Far from it. So what were they doing with her the whole time they held her in Arctis Tor? Doesn't look like they were doing much of anything.

[Radhil]

But she certainly doesn't exhibit the signs that her psyche had been shredded by the fetches. Far from it. So what were they doing with her the whole time they held her in Arctis Tor? Doesn't look like they were doing much of anything.

Maybe they were chewing their food slowly?  Molly's first reaction to being free was collapsing in exhaustion in Charity's arms and chanting "Mama."  And her second reaction was to wake up and be afraid of her family's reaction and try to sneak off.  Maybe her psyche wasn't digested to the point of coma, but the girl went through a lot.

Also, if Mab wanted her for any reason beyond Harry-bait, it'd give them a much bigger reason to softball her.

I'm still trying to read through and re-org my own thoughts on PG in light of new revelations, I'll try to be back to comment more later.

[DFJunkie]

"Mab fixed little Chicago" is practically a slam dunk now that we know Faeries can cross thresholds if they have a benevolent purpose.