This is a really cool analysis. A couple of things ocurred to me while reading it.
- Mab's first action was not declaring Harry her emissary, but rather, extending winter for as long as she did (May, wasn't it?). It would suggest that either the construction of the entrapment circle in Demonreach took quite a bit of time and testing, or that she acted first. Which poses the question: why did she choose the particular time she did to declare him her emissary? At a guess, I would propose that it was intended to ensure that Harry wouldn't forego going to Michael for help.
- It would be best not to underestimate the chess-playing skill of the Denarians, even without taking into account anything Nemesis himself was up to. They each have a Fallen on their head. Granted, not all Fallen are created equal, but still, these are the kinds of guys who manipulated Harry just by using 7 words.
- Considering the amount of time it took Harry to identify the Gruffs, I can buy the idea that the Calvin and Hobbes book was placed so that Harry would be able to identify the hobs in time. Since we now know the fae can pass a threshold when they mean well, it was probably even Mab or one of her allies who did it (I kinda want it to have been Grimalkin, myself).
- I agree that Mab probably did not plan for Harry to make it into the Shedd. I suspect, however, that Uriel did. Like Mr. Sunshine said, he could have exerted his influence in a short term solution (like making sure Harry didn't make it into the sign in time, similar to how Michael never has trouble finding a babysitter) instead of giving him soulfire, and things would have been much simpler. Instead, Mr. Sunshine, as he himself admitted, chose to plan for the long game. There's a reason Mab likes him.
- With Jim's latest post in these here forums, we know that Ivy's claim of Neutrality is a lie, one even Kincaid isn't aware of. It's merely her cover. So her giving Harry a clue can't be used as proof of contagion by Nemesis.
- You know what's interesting? When Uriel gave Harry soulfire, it resulted in Thorned Namshiel being broken, making him unable to walk. I could be wrong, but I suspect that was specifically done so that Thorned Namshiel could not participate directly in Ivy's torture, and wouldn't be capable of infecting her with Nemesis.
*Joins Uriel Fan Club*