Knights of Fae and the Wardens

[Becq]

How many demons (as opposed to Fallen) do or do not have Hellfire is speculation.  Even if none of them do, however, RAW claims that all Fallen do, and WoJ supports that.  So if you go with the Pope's assessment on the Fallen population (and I'd argue he is more an expert than any of us on this forum), then that's more than 133 million sources of Hellfire.  That's a lot of Hellfire -- and also a lot of speculation, though based on studies made by the best experts in the field I could find.

Of those Fallen, we know that in DF 30 of them closed escrow on coinfront real estate, and RAW/WoJ indicates that all of them have access to Hellfire.  Of those 30, only several are known to have granted Hellfire to their human counterparts, as recorded in the novels and DFRPG.  That list includes Thorned Namshiel, Saluriel/Quintus, and Lash/Harry.  One third of those (Lash/Harry) are not considered affiliated with the Order of the Blackened Denarius.  It might also be worth noting that in the case of Lash/Harry, Hellfire was being granted not by a Fallen, but by the mental shadow of a Fallen.

Bottom line, I still disagree with your sweeping statistics, based on a sampling of about 0.00000225% of the Fallen with only 67% success rate.

[Tedronai]

Of those instances of Hellfire being granted to mortals known from the novels, 3 were explicitly associated with the Order of the Blackened Denarius.
The combination of Lash and Harry was not considered an affiliate of the Order.
Then again, that was Lash, not Lasciel, and Harry never actually took up the Coin.
And even then, he was being courted by the Order, with the granting of Hellfire being a part of that courting.

In the larger scheme, the Fallen who took to the Coins did so for one primary reason: to gain vastly more access to the mortal world.  To put it another way, those many millions of Fallen who did not take to the Coins have vastly diminished capacity to influence the mortal world at all, let alone to grant substantial power to mortals in the form of Hellfire.

[Becq]

Look, if you want to argue just for the sake of arguing, then:

1) Quintus Cassius was never a member of the Order of the Blackened Denarius, signatory to the Accords.  The Order of the Blackened Denarius was not a signatory until after he lost his coin.
2) Lash/Harry was never a member of the Order of the Blackened Denarius at all, signatory or no.  Lash hoped to change that, but it never happened.
3) I think Thorned Namshiel was around after the Order signed the Accords.

So 1/3 of the known users of Hellfire were OotBD members, 1/3 were members of the White Council, and 1/3 were independents.

In any case, if you want to argue meaningless points, then my original statement that you took exception to was:

And I don't think that the Wardens are going to distinguish much between a mortal who makes a pact with a demon, then uses Hellfire to fry someone or a self-taught mortal sorceror who uses Dresden-style magic to fry someone.

Members of the OotBD don't fit into that category.  And if I were to replace "demon" with Fallen", then the only change that would need to be made is that the Warden might take a quick look to see if there are any coins stuck to the mortal spellflinger before lopping his head off.

[Tedronai]

Keep it civil, Becq.  Address the arguments, not the one delivering them.

That the organization was not a signatory to the Accords during Cassius' membership has no bearing on whether or not his use of Hellfire should be attributed to a member of the Order.  The Order was not created by its signing of the Accords.
Lasciel is affiliated with the Order, and was the source of Harry's access to Hellfire.
Lash was the imprinted 'shadow' of Lasciel upon Harry's mind that served as a conduit to Lasciel's true self bound in the Coin.
Thorned Namshiel is the name, or at least pseudonym, of the Fallen residing in the respective coin.  He is a member of the Order

There is no known quick check to identify the source of an individual's access to something like Hellfire.
There is also no known safe and quick check to determine whether or not someone is in possession of a Coin.  The best known test is a Soulgaze, and that is neither necessarily definitive (being subject to interpretation) nor safe for use with an actively hostile subject.
Alternatively, you could propose a 'test' for possession of a Coin that amounts to little more than how readily the subject kicks the Warden's pansy ass.  If the Warden kicks the subject's ass, without having his own ass simultaneously kicked in return, then the subject is not likely in possession of a Coin.  I don't think many Wardens rate the preservation of their own lives so lowly as to implement such a test, though.

[tymire]

Going back to the original question about law breaking.  Imo if you decided to break a law you would get law breaker since it's your will doing it.   Now if one of the queens forces your hand (and they definitely can based on the books), you would not.  It's been mentioned multiple times, but Will is what matters most in magic.  It's not explicit in the RPG, but it has been mentioned fairly often in the books that wizards can fairly easily sense (without the sight) warlocks and that they will kill them without soulgazing them without hesitation.

And for the accords, who really knows what effect they have.  Hehe, still remember those comments in "Our story" which is summed up with;  Will: "Any chance I can get a copy of the Accords?", Harry: "Hell No".