Taking a closer look at Small Favor (LONG)

[knnn]

Preface:

Small Favor is another of those books where something is going on in the background, and I've been trying to come up with a theory to explain it all.  I've come up with something, but I don't feel it is quite as solid as what I have for Proven Guilty, but I still think it is worth sharing.  As such, I am going to build up to the theory one block at a time, so that even if the full story is not perfect, at least the individual building blocks may encourages other to come up with their own insights.

Here goes (deep breath):

1) Is Mab being played, or is she the "player"?

We are told in Small Favor that the whole "Harry is predictable" explains how the Denarian's plan to capture the Archive isn't crazy.  However, there still is a critical point missing -- they would have had to predict that Mab would:
a) Choose to rescue Marcone, and
b) Choose Harry as Emissary in this task. 

Now, one could say that Harry would have investigated Marcone's abduction without Mab's intervention, but I'll deal with that chain of logic later on. 

Instead, consider the notion of trying to get Mab to do what you want.  Yes, she is predictable (i.e. no free will), but then so is that world-champion-chess-playing-computer-program.  Sure, if you study the algorithms it uses you can predict what it might do at any given position, but lets see you beat it at a game of chess....  With Mab it is much worse.  Not only do you need to be able to understand her thought-processes in an intimate manner, you also need access to every piece of information she uses to make those decisions - and she has *lots* of ways of gathering information.

Thus, if it's a choice between Mab being played, or Mab playing a game on someone else -- my money is on Mab.  If you limit the choice to "Denarians playing Mab" or "Mab playing the Denarians", I certainly know who I'm betting on.  The only way I could see Mab being played is if was someone like Titania or an Archangel playing on the other side.  I personally believe Titania is working hand in hand with Mab, but that is a subject for a different post (see here for my thoughts on that issue).

Two more points that can be read as supporting Mab:

a) Harry notes (end of chapter 7), that the first set of gruffs were sent by Titania hours before Marcone was attacked, and that this was in response to Mab declaring Harry to be her Emissary in this case. Note also that in this WoJ he says (emphasis mine):

The first are just the newer gruffs, those most recent from being Changelings.  They attacked Harry simply because Mab declared that she had chosen him as her emissary.

This essentially means that Mab made the first move.

b) At the Shedd, Harry realizes what is going on, flings Nicodemus into a wall and runs inside the descending uber-circle, but first has time to smash Namshiel with a soul-hand a couple of times.  Nic has shown that he has pretty good powers of recuperation, and yet he doesn't make it inside the Pentagram on time.  In fact, Tessa even comments about it.  You'd think Nic could have made it back in time... 

What I find further interesting is that Nic doesn't even try to run interference on the outside.  I mean, you've got wounded Gard and Hendricks (whom they need to capture for torture purposes -- to convince Marcone to take up a coin), and even two juicy Knights.  Sure, Nicodemus is a cautious fellow, but it didn't stop him from flying back to the train to kill attack Michael back in Death Masks. 

To me this suggests that the conversation with Harry in the Shedd really shocked Nic to the core.  All of a sudden, he realizes that something else is going on, and maybe he is being played somehow.  Consequently, he quietly hedges his bets and exists the scene. 

I realize this doesn't automatically mean that Mab is calling the shots (Nicodemus has also just realized that the Black Court has infiltrated his ranks), but...


On to the next point.

2) What advantage does Mab get by choosing Harry as Emissary?

Would Harry really have gone and tried to save Marcone if Mab hadn't chosen him to be Emissary (with the Archive being brought in, etc.)?  If the answer is "yes", then why did she choose him in the first place?  Having Harry as Emissary only adds on the apparent liability of causing Summer's goons to start chasing him, followed by the necessity of removing Fire from his arsenal of weapons.

Some thoughts:

a) Would Harry have been able to call in the Archive to arbitrate without the threat of Mab removing permission for the White Council to use the "ways"? 
b) Would Harry have even moved to save Marcone if not coerced by Mab?  The conversation he has with Thomas shows he might not have.
c) Even if Harry intended to investigate the building, note that he wasn't aware that Marcone was actually inside the building during the attack until Mab showed him in the ice-movie she made.  He might not have moved quickly enough, maybe even stopped at Mrs. Demeter's "Marcone is busy" routine.

Then there is also this quote from the book that need to be resolved:

I didn’t want to think too hard about that, and I didn’t want to openly agree with her, either. So instead I nodded at the patch of ground where the sculptures had been. “Who took Marcone?”
“I do not know. That is one reason I chose you, Emissary. You have a gift for finding what is lost.”
“If you want me to do this for you, I’m going to need to ask you some questions,” I said.
Mab glanced up, as if consulting the stars through the still-falling snow. “Time, time, time. Will there never be an end to it?” She shook her head. “Wizard child, the hour has nearly passed. I have duties upon which to attend-as do you. You should rise and leave this place immediately.”

The simple explanation here is that Mab really doesn't know who took Marcone, but I find it hard to believe that with all her information-gathering resources she couldn't figure it out something about the attackers.

Examples:

a) Usage of an uber-pentegram that Harry ultimately calculates would require an arch-angel to empower.
b) She could see inside the building the Marcone was hiding in, you'd think she'd be able to see the inside of the car he was taken in.
c) Smell of hellfire -- big giveaway.

Note also that when Harry wants to ask more questions, she brushes him off with the gruff threat (not that those gruff can pose any threat while Mab is standing right there).

Thing is, Mab cannot lie, so maybe she doesn't know exactly who took Marcone.  I'll bet she has a darn good guess though.

-->

To me, the takeaway is that if we assume that Mab is the one calling the shots, then somehow, getting the Archive involved must be part of the plan.

3) The Hob attack

The Hob attack is another weird event.  On the face of it, it seems like an attempt to abduct or kill the Archive, but in fact, I find it hard to believe that gang of Hobs would be a reasonable threat to her.  This is after all a being that is at least as powerful as one of the Faerie Ladies (according to the underestimation of the Warden files), and we see her hold off a horde of Denarians without much trouble.  Add to this Kincaid and Luccio, (and possibly also Harry and Michael - Mab must be keeping tabs on her Emissary), and using a bunch of Hobs for such an operation seems downright stupid -- which Mab is not.  At the very last resort, Ivy could retreat into the Nevernever...

Thus, I suggest that if Mab really wanted to kill the Archive, she could (and would) have easily assembled a way more powerful force (e.g. sending Santa to abduct the child Archive would have been a cool twist), one that would have a better chance at overpowering the Archive and her protectors..

So if the Hob attack was not meant to kill the Archive, what was its purpose?

One possible answer is that all this is simply "warning shot" for the Archive.  Sending a bunch of Hobs to attack her is essentially Mab's way of telling her "Someone is up to no good. Take extra precautions."  One could even say that those clothes thrown around the aquarium to obscure Ivy's smell is a precuation taken by Kincaid as a direct result of this obscure warning. 

4) The Shedd

I've already mentioned Nic's tardiness, but here's another interestingly shaped puzzle piece:

Uriel gives Harry access to Soulfire in this scene (presumably as a reward for resisting Lash), but we need to remember that the only reason he could intervene in this manner on the first place is because Hell had already intevened in the form of the uber-pentegram.  In fact, if you take events in strict linear time, the Soulfire-hand takes place before the second uber-pentegram actually materializes, and so this intervention has to "counterbalance" the first pentegram (the one used to capture Marcone).

Basically it boils down to this:  If Mab wants her future Knight to get access to soulfire, she needs to offer enough bait in front of the Denarians to entice them to break certain cosmic laws -- thus allowing Uriel to counterbalance them with the offer of Soulfire.  Good enough motive for Mab to set all this up?

Another interesting point about the Shedd is that it seems that Harry actually messed up here by charging into the Circle.  Consider that the uber-pentagram couldn't stay up that long; in our timeline it comes down maybe seconds after the Archive is abducted (remember also that Denarians express a worry onscreen that might not be able to find Ivy in time).  If:

a) Harry had never realized Nic was stalling him.
b) Harry had not gotten up the nerve to charge into the Circle.
c) Harry had the sense to stay hidden longer and not take a cheap shot at Tessa.
d) Ivy didn't care about Harry enough to save him at the expense of her freedom --

Kincaid and Ivy might have been able to run out the time on the Circle and Ivy would never have been abducted.  Once the Circle came down, it would have been a BAD DAY to be a Denarian...

Basically, Harry's good intentions -- i.e. his humanity messed up here.

5)The Island

There are a bunch of interesting things that happen on the Island - not the least of which is the encounter with "Eldest", but I'd like to focus on Harry's "Second Sight" starts coming on, the indication that the Island will be important to his future. 

Take a look at this WoJ:

How strong is Demonreach compared to Mab, Nicodemus, and all the other antagonists Harry faces?
That’s depending on where you stand. Like literally your GPS coordinates. If you’re in the right spot, don’t mess with Demonreach, and if you’re not, who cares. He’s one of those situations. If you want to go out to that island and play, you better bring your A game, is the way it works out.

...It almost sounds like Demonreach could win an arm-wrestling contest with MAB if she ever came to visit.

Given that Harry has just found out that Demonreach will be important to his future, I think it makes sense that Demonreach also got some indication that Harry was an important figure in its future at the same time...   

Demonreach as an ally (through her future Winter Knight) is certainly a plus for Mab.

EDIT: 

Here's another interesting point:  If the Denarian's original plan was only to abduct Marcone, they didn't really need to build that holding cell on the island.  Thus, if one of Mab's original goals was to introduce Harry to Demonreach, dangling Archive-shaped bait in front of the Denarians is the perfect way do so.  It is the only place in the area that would have the ley-line confluence to be able to build a cell to hold her for any long period of time.  Under Mab's original plan, Ivy would have escaped being captured the Shedd, and then she and Harry would have traveled to the island to free Marcone. 

"Mr. Dresden please meet Demonreach.  Demonreach please meet Dresden."




------------------------------------------------------------>
Let's put all these points together into some coherent narrative:
------------------------------------------------------------>

1) Ever since the events of PG, Mab has been trying to gather allies, gain power against the BC, and get revenge on those who invaded her realm.

2) She knows that the Denarians have long been concocting a plan to abduct Marcone and give him a coin (maybe once he became a Freeholder?).  The notion of capturing Ivy is not in their plans yet. So she makes her move.

3) Mab chooses Harry as emissary - hours before the actual attack takes place.  Maybe just as Demeter tells them about the safe house.  Using a super-pentegram is still not in the picture.

4) Now that Harry is emissary, the Denarians realize that they have a chance of bagging Ivy as well.

5) They hastly change their plans.  The uber-pentegram is not strictly needed to capture someone like Marcone, but they decide to use it anyway - to test it out before using it on Ivy.  It's a last minute change to the plan, but Nic feels the risk is worth prize.

6) Thus, in the initial parley with Harry (when Tessa offers him mantis-smex), the Denarians only "fake attack" (good acting there, sacrificing Akariel...).  The real intention is to get Harry to call in mediation.  Note that Tessa is very careful to mention the Accords a number of times -- all the more to plant the idea in Harry's head to call in the Archive.

7) Mab tries to warn the Archive that the Denarians are after her by sacrificing some troops.  It's a simple "WARNING" sign from Mab.  Kincaid and Ivy take extra pecautions (such as laying clothes everywhere).  Unfortunatly, Kincaid neglects to pack claymore mines.

8 ) At the Shedd, Nic suddenly realizes that his plan is compromised.  From this point on, he begins hedging his bets (staying back).

9) The fact that the Denarians took the bait and broke the rules testing the pentegram on Marcone, means that Uriel gets to give Harry access to soulfire.  Mab dances a jig.

10) The attack on Ivy goes down, but instead of failing - with the Archive proceeding to pulverise the Denarians in retaliation (as Mab intended), Harry steps in and essentially messes everything up and Ivy gets taken.  Bad for Mab, but...

11) Harry goes to the island to rescue Ivy, and in the process Demonreach notices him -- more potential power for Mab's future Knight.

12) The Archive gets rescued after having been abused, holding an even stronger grudge against the Denarians.  Another ally for Mab in the fight against the Black Council.

13) Mab WINS.

---------------

Final note: read this WoJ, see if it fits:

The thing is that Mab never really figures Dresden quite right.  She never gets it right when she tries to predict what he will do.  But Small Favor turned out really well for her.

Makes you think, doesn't it?

[Elegast]

Note that this answer was written before CD, so the existence of Nemesis was not known.

Instead, consider the notion of trying to get Mab to do what you want.  Yes, she is predictable (i.e. no free will), but then so is that world-champion-chess-playing-computer-program.  Sure, if you study the algorithms it uses you can predict what it might do at any given position, but lets see you beat it at a game of chess....  With Mab it is much worse.  Not only do you need to be able to understand her thought-processes in an intimate manner, you also need access to every piece of information she uses to make those decisions - and she has *lots* of ways of gathering information.

Thus, if it's a choice between Mab being played, or Mab playing a game on someone else -- my money is on Mab.  If you limit the choice to "Denarians playing Mab" or "Mab playing the Denarians", I certainly know who I'm betting on.  The only way I could see Mab being played is if was someone like Titania or an Archangel playing on the other side.  I personally believe Titania is working hand in hand with Mab, but that is a subject for a different post (see here for my thoughts on that issue).

True. But remember that Lucifer is involved. He could outsmart Mab, or at least feel smart enough to try.

a) Harry notes (end of chapter 7), that the first set of gruffs were sent by Titania hours before Marcone was attacked, and that this was in response to Mab declaring Harry to be her Emissary in this case. Note also that in this WoJ he says (emphasis mine):
Quote
The first are just the newer gruffs, those most recent from being Changelings.  They attacked Harry simply because Mab declared that she had chosen him as her emissary.
This essentially means that Mab made the first move.

It shows at least that she knew something was about to happen.

Two other explanation:

• she can see the future
• she sees all the denarians converging (we know that there are at least two teams usually), so something big is about to happen. It may an opportunity to take revenge

b) At the Shedd, Harry realizes what is going on, flings Nicodemus into a wall and runs inside the descending uber-circle, but first has time to smash Namshiel with a soul-hand a couple of times.  Nic has shown that he has pretty good powers of recuperation, and yet he doesn't make it inside the Pentagram on time.  In fact, Tessa even comments about it.  You'd think Nic could have made it back in time... 

What I find further interesting is that Nic doesn't even try to run interference on the outside.  I mean, you've got wounded Gard and Hendricks (whom they need to capture for torture purposes -- to convince Marcone to take up a coin), and even two juicy Knights.  Sure, Nicodemus is a cautious fellow, but it didn't stop him from flying back to the train to kill attack Michael back in Death Masks. 

To me this suggests that the conversation with Harry in the Shedd really shocked Nic to the core.  All of a sudden, he realizes that something else is going on, and maybe he is being played somehow.  Consequently, he quietly hedges his bets and exists the scene.

Yes. "shocked Nic to the core" is the proper term.

Now I have a theory. We know that there is a secret conspiracy among the denarians. We know that Lucifer is using his strength during SmF. I think Lucifer may be running a con on Anduriel/Nick. Or at least I think Nick suspected it (remember who was the guy who trapped the Fallen into the coins?)

To me, the takeaway is that if we assume that Mab is the one calling the shots, then somehow, getting the Archive involved must be part of the plan.

Unless she's forced to act to upheld the Accords:

“The Accords have been breached. A challenge must be lodged. An Emissary summoned. As a Warden”—she gasped for a moment, and then fumbled the glue into place—“you have the authority to call a challenge.”

Then Mab could be predictable: one could predict that she would be forced to act (she gave her word), then that in the town of Chicago she would chose Harry as Emissary (safe bet) , who himself would choose the Archive as arbiter.

To me, the takeaway is that if we assume that Mab is the one calling the shots, then somehow, getting the Archive involved must be part of the plan.

Agreed.

3) The Hob attack

The Hob attack is another weird event.  On the face of it, it seems like an attempt to abduct or kill the Archive, but in fact, I find it hard to believe that gang of Hobs would be a reasonable threat to her.  This is after all a being that is at least as powerful as one of the Faerie Ladies (according to the underestimation of the Warden files), and we see her hold off a horde of Denarians without much trouble.  Add to this Kincaid and Luccio, (and possibly also Harry and Michael - Mab must be keeping tabs on her Emissary), and using a bunch of Hobs for such an operation seems downright stupid -- which Mab is not.  At the very last resort, Ivy could retreat into the Nevernever...

Thus, I suggest that if Mab really wanted to kill the Archive, she could (and would) have easily assembled a way more powerful force (e.g. sending Santa to abduct the child Archive would have been a cool twist), one that would have a better chance at overpowering the Archive and her protectors..

So if the Hob attack was not meant to kill the Archive, what was its purpose?

One possible answer is that all this is simply "warning shot" for the Archive.  Sending a bunch of Hobs to attack her is essentially Mab's way of telling her "Someone is up to no good. Take extra precautions."  One could even say that those clothes thrown around the aquarium to obscure Ivy's smell is a precuation taken by Kincaid as a direct result of this obscure warning. 

Agreed.

Kincaid and Ivy might have been able to run out the time on the Circle and Ivy would never have been abducted.  Once the Circle came down, it would have been a BAD DAY to be a Denarian...

Basically, Harry's good intentions -- i.e. his humanity messed up here.

That's interesting. Especially as I believe after GS and Uriel comments, that a Fallen could predict such a reaction. Remember Uriel comments in the Warrior about Archangels predicting human behavior. But Mab may not be able to: a WOJ says she does not really get Harry. That may be the moment where the Fallen thought they could outsmart Mab.

1) Ever since the events of PG, Mab has been trying to gather allies, gain power against the BC, and get revenge on those who invaded her realm.

2) She knows that the Denarians have long been concocting a plan to abduct Marcone and give him a coin (maybe once he became a Freeholder?).  The notion of capturing Ivy is not in their plans yet. So she makes her move.

3) Mab chooses Harry as emissary - hours before the actual attack takes place.  Maybe just as Demeter tells them about the safe house.  Using a super-pentegram is still not in the picture.

4) Now that Harry is emissary, the Denarians realize that they have a chance of bagging Ivy as well.

5) They hastly change their plans.  The uber-pentegram is not strictly needed to capture someone like Marcone, but they decide to use it anyway - to test it out before using it on Ivy.  It's a last minute change to the plan, but Nic feels the risk is worth prize.

6) Thus, in the initial parley with Harry (when Tessa offers him mantis-smex), the Denarians only "fake attack" (good acting there, sacrificing Akariel...).  The real intention is to get Harry to call in mediation.  Note that Tessa is very careful to mention the Accords a number of times -- all the more to plant the idea in Harry's head to call in the Archive.

7) Mab tries to warn the Archive that the Denarians are after her by sacrificing some troops.  It's a simple "WARNING" sign from Mab.  Kincaid and Ivy take extra pecautions (such as laying clothes everywhere).  Unfortunatly, Kincaid neglects to pack claymore mines.

8 ) At the Shedd, Nic suddenly realizes that his plan is compromised.  From this point on, he begins hedging his bets (staying back).

9) The fact that the Denarians took the bait and broke the rules testing the pentegram on Marcone, means that Uriel gets to give Harry access to soulfire.  Mab dances a jig.

10) The attack on Ivy goes down, but instead of failing - with the Archive proceeding to pulverise the Denarians in retaliation (as Mab intended), Harry steps in and essentially messes everything up and Ivy gets taken.  Bad for Mab, but...

11) Harry goes to the island to rescue Ivy, and in the process Demonreach notices him -- more potential power for Mab's future Knight.

12) The Archive gets rescued after having been abused, holding an even stronger grudge against the Denarians.  Another ally for Mab in the fight against the Black Council.

13) Mab WINS.

That seems right. However I doubt the part Mab planning for Harry to get soulfire, and it fails to give an explanation for Lucifer's action. I highly doubt he's a cosmic cashing machine that the denarians can use at will. He must have agreed to take part in the scheme. He knows that any action from his part will mean a reaction from the other side. Would you let Anduriel call the shots? I believe he takes extreme care not to waste his power, knowing that Uriel won't.

Here is my altered timeline:

1) Ever since the events of PG, Mab has been trying to gather allies, gain power against the BC, and get revenge on those who invaded her realm.

2) She knows that the Denarians have long been concocting a plan to abduct Marcone and give him a coin (maybe once he became a Freeholder?).  The notion of capturing Ivy is not in their plans yet. So she makes her move.

3) Mab chooses Harry as emissary - hours before the actual attack takes place.  Maybe just as Demeter tells them about the safe house.  Using a super-pentegram is still not in the picture.

4) Now that Harry is emissary, the Denarians realize that they have a chance of bagging Ivy as well.

4)bis They conctact HQ for additionnal power, request accepted.

5) They hastly change their plans.  The uber-pentegram is not strictly needed to capture someone like Marcone, but they decide to use it anyway - to test it out before using it on Ivy.  It's a last minute change to the plan, but Nic feels the risk is worth prize.

6) Thus, in the initial parley with Harry (when Tessa offers him mantis-smex), the Denarians only "fake attack" (good acting there, sacrificing Akariel...).  The real intention is to get Harry to call in mediation.  Note that Tessa is very careful to mention the Accords a number of times -- all the more to plant the idea in Harry's head to call in the Archive.

7) Mab tries to warn the Archive that the Denarians are after her by sacrificing some troops.  It's a simple "WARNING" sign from Mab.  Kincaid and Ivy take extra pecautions (such as laying clothes everywhere).  Unfortunatly, Kincaid neglects to pack claymore mines.

8 ) At the Shedd, Nic suddenly realizes that his plan is compromised.  From this point on, he begins hedging his bets (staying back).

9) The fact that the Denarians took the bait and broke the rules testing the pentegram on Marcone, means that Uriel gets to give Harry access to soulfire.  Mab dances a jig.

10) The attack on Ivy goes down, but instead of failing - with the Archive proceeding to pulverise the Denarians in retaliation (as Mab intended), Harry steps in and essentially messes everything up and Ivy gets taken (as Lucifer predicted).  Bad for Mab, but...

11) Harry goes to the island to rescue Ivy, and in the process Demonreach notices him -- more potential power for Mab's future Knight.

12) The Archive gets rescued after having been abused, holding an even stronger grudge against the Denarians.  Another ally for Mab in the fight against the Black Council.

13) Mab WINS (thanks to Uriel).

The greatest uncertainty is: did the denarians planned for the Archive to be taken from the very beginning?

If no, I believe it goes like this:

• the denarians decide to attack Marcone
• Mab sees an opportunity to have the Archive crushing the denarians
• Lucifer sees a miscalculation in Mab's plan
• Uriel react to Lucifer, Mab wins anyway

If yes:

• the denarians (with Lucifer approval) decide to attack Marcone, knowing that it will draw Mab, and then the Archive
• Mab is forced to act to upheld the Accords
• She picks Harry, knowing that he will pick the Archive, but she miscalculates.
• Uriel react to Lucifer, Mab wins anyway

[Vairelome]

First of all, excellent work, knnn.  This is a masterful layout of the behind-the-scenes plotting in Small Favor.  I'll come back to this thread when I have more time, but I wanted to comment on two specific points:

7) Mab tries to warn the Archive that the Denarians are after her by sacrificing some troops.  It's a simple "WARNING" sign from Mab.  Kincaid and Ivy take extra pecautions (such as laying clothes everywhere).  Unfortunatly, Kincaid neglects to pack claymore mines.

I'm not sure this point is solid, though it's more of an intuitive "feel" reaction from me than logic at this point.  I think the Hob attack might be a bit more significant than an exploratory jab at the Archive to make sure she's on full alert.

8 ) At the Shedd, Nic suddenly realizes that his plan is compromised.  From this point on, he begins hedging his bets (staying back).

I emphatically agree with this take on Nicodemus's internal thought processes.  Your description of Nicodemus's probable plans and movements are dead-on in agreement with my take on his character.

Extra Point--One interpretation of Mab's response ("I don't know.") to Harry's question ("Who took Marcone?") might be that Mab knows the Denarians were directly involved, but thinks that they were acting as the agents or pawns of the BC.  She could be saying that she didn't know who was ultimately responsible for sending the Denarians in Marcone's direction, with the hope that Harry will trace the linkages past the obvious Denarian involvement.  He doesn't, but as you said, Mab wins anyway.

[Paladino]

Really interesting post Knnn. I got say I agree with it.

Just that the fake attack on Gard and Hendricks, they didn't sacrifice the denarian on purpose, I think Harry and Thomas surprised them with their competence.

The first are just the newer gruffs, those most recent from being Changelings.  They attacked Harry simply because Mab declared that she had chosen him as her emissary.

Recent changelings?? Really?? Someone would choose to become a goatman??

[TheCuriousFan]

Really interesting post Knnn. I got say I agree with it.

Just that the fake attack on Gard and Hendricks, they didn't sacrifice the denarian on purpose, I think Harry and Thomas surprised them with their competence.

Recent changelings?? Really?? Someone would choose to become a goatman??

Not everyone sees something wrong with the idea of being an immortal superhuman goatman.

[Paladino]

Not everyone sees something wrong with the idea of being an immortal superhuman goatman.

Well, it's a crazy world...

[Mortax]

Keep in mind, the changelings we've seen so for tend to look a little like their fay side.  So the 1/2 goat changelings may not be so attractive to begin with.  Or maybe they REALLY wanted to win the long jump....

[uncanny]

Not everyone sees something wrong with the idea of being an immortal superhuman goatman.

Maybe they knew the Fae side was part goat and thought it meant Satyr?  Blinded by dreams of the Nymphs...

[Elegast]

Recent changelings?? Really?? Someone would choose to become a goatman??

And who would choose to become an apefairie?

[knnn]

Just wanted to add on another point to the OP:

Consider that if the original Denarian plan was only to abduct Marcone, there was no reason for them to base themselves on Demonreach.  Any quiet, out-of-the-way place would suffice.  When Mab dangles Archive-shaped bait in front of them, they all of a sudden need to prepare a long-term holding cell for her -- a strong confluence of ley-lines. 

If one of Mab's goals is to introduce Harry to Demonreach, this is the perfect setup.  Under her original plan, once the Archive escapes being captured at the Shedd and has some fun playing with the Denarians, Ivy and Harry could go together to the island to free Marcone.  As things went down, it didn't quite work out that way, but everything still ended favorably.

[Paladino]

Just wanted to add on another point to the OP:

Consider that if the original Denarian plan was only to abduct Marcone, there was no reason for them to base themselves on Demonreach.  Any quiet, out-of-the-way place would suffice.  When Mab dangles Archive-shaped bait in front of them, they all of a sudden need to prepare a long-term holding cell for her -- a strong confluence of ley-lines. 

If one of Mab's goals is to introduce Harry to Demonreach, this is the perfect setup.  Under her original plan, once the Archive escapes being captured at the Shedd and has some fun playing with the Denarians, Ivy and Harry could go together to the island to free Marcone.  As things went down, it didn't quite work out that way, but everything still ended favorably.

By the way DR contested Mab hold over Harry in GS, I don't think she wanted them to meet. I like the idea of Harry screwing up and getting Ivy caught the the aquarium better.

[Duke Blue]

3) The Hob attack

The Hob attack is another weird event.  On the face of it, it seems like an attempt to abduct or kill the Archive, but in fact, I find it hard to believe that gang of Hobs would be a reasonable threat to her.  This is after all a being that is at least as powerful as one of the Faerie Ladies (according to the underestimation of the Warden files), and we see her hold off a horde of Denarians without much trouble.  Add to this Kincaid and Luccio, (and possibly also Harry and Michael - Mab must be keeping tabs on her Emissary), and using a bunch of Hobs for such an operation seems downright stupid -- which Mab is not.  At the very last resort, Ivy could retreat into the Nevernever...

Thus, I suggest that if Mab really wanted to kill the Archive, she could (and would) have easily assembled a way more powerful force (e.g. sending Santa to abduct the child Archive would have been a cool twist), one that would have a better chance at overpowering the Archive and her protectors..

So if the Hob attack was not meant to kill the Archive, what was its purpose?

One possible answer is that all this is simply "warning shot" for the Archive.  Sending a bunch of Hobs to attack her is essentially Mab's way of telling her "Someone is up to no good. Take extra precautions."  One could even say that those clothes thrown around the aquarium to obscure Ivy's smell is a precuation taken by Kincaid as a direct result of this obscure warning. 

Actually I have been thinking about this attack a lot and I am not sure that the conclusion that the Hobbs were not much of a threat to Ivy is reasonable.  Think about what we know about Ivy in a fight from the Shedd Aquarium.
1. Her first tactic is to veil herself and wait for Kinkaid to kill the attacker(s).
2. While she has incredible skill with magic she still a little girl and probably doesn't have the stamina to fight for a long time even though she is really efficient with her magic.

Now consider the abilities of the Hobbs:
1. They make the area pitch black and fight without seeing (as they have no eyes).  As such not only does the myrk reduce the effectiveness of Kinkaid and Luccio but Ivy can't hide with a veil because invisibility is pretty much useless against an opponent with no eyes.
2. There were a lot of them.  A LOT!  Had Harry not dispelled the Myrk and Michael and Tiny cleared some of the Hobbs out the fight might have gone much much longer.

Also remember that Mab removed Harry's knowledge of fire evocation.  Harry used fire to turn on the sprinklers to dispel the myrk.  It could be that Mab miscalculated by not expecting Harry to think of using thaumaturgy to start the sprinklers when she only removed his fire evocation knowledge.

Now that doesn't mean that the Hobbs would necessarily have won but it does indicate that they were a particularly effective threat against the Archive even though they were not necessarily Mab's strongest troops in a general sense.  Also even if Mab didn't think the Hobbs could kill Ivy that doesn't necessarily mean they were some sort of warning.  Could be that Mab wanted the fight to continue until Ivy was forced to flee to the NN (where Mab or something else might have been waiting).  It is also possible that the fight was designed to wear down Ivy so that she would have less energy against the Denarians. 

Anyway, all I am saying is that I think that the Hobbs posed a real threat to Ivy and that things could have gone much differently if Harry and Michael hadn't showed up and done what they did.  Of course this is assuming that Mab sent the Hobbs.  IIRC she didn't actually answer that part of Harry's question at the end.

[asetti]

I still think the deanarians were going to grab Ivy at the trainstation and the hobs foiled that plan.

[King Ash]

Hmm, interesting theory.
My general assumption goes, the Nickleheads capture Marcone to test out the hellfire sign and create a "big noise" to get the attention of the SI and thus Harry. Nic knows Harry well enough that he can guess that he wont leave SI hanging, so Harry gets involved. Nic knows that Gard and Harry are aquainted, and perhaps even that they have worked together in Heorot, so he thinks it's a good bet that Gard will ask him for help being injured herself. Harry, tough as he is, can't take on the Denarians himself so she will get him to ask for arbitration help (she doesn't go to Donner Vaderung, because that is tantamount to saying that she can't find a solution herself). Harry being Harry will call for the Archive to arbitrate which allows Nic and co to capture her.

Two more points that can be read as supporting Mab:

a) Harry notes (end of chapter 7), that the first set of gruffs were sent by Titania hours before Marcone was attacked, and that this was in response to Mab declaring Harry to be her Emissary in this case. Note also that in this WoJ he says (emphasis mine):
Quote

    The first are just the newer gruffs, those most recent from being Changelings.  They attacked Harry simply because Mab declared that she had chosen him as her emissary.

This essentially means that Mab made the first move.

Mab has epic info gaining skills so her finding out that the Denarians are intown and setting up to capture Marcone and more importantly the archive, going out of their way to break the accords before they actually do the deed seems quite reasonable to me, thus requiring an emissary (she doesn't have an active knight afterall so she has no mortal to do her work). Given that it is Chicago and Harry has worked for Mab before (I doubt if even the Denarians would know that she can make three demands of Harry) he is the logical choice and the Denarians would realise this.

b) At the Shedd, Harry realizes what is going on, flings Nicodemus into a wall and runs inside the descending uber-circle, but first has time to smash Namshiel with a soul-hand a couple of times.  Nic has shown that he has pretty good powers of recuperation, and yet he doesn't make it inside the Pentagram on time.  In fact, Tessa even comments about it.  You'd think Nic could have made it back in time...

What I find further interesting is that Nic doesn't even try to run interference on the outside.  I mean, you've got wounded Gard and Hendricks (whom they need to capture for torture purposes -- to convince Marcone to take up a coin), and even two juicy Knights.  Sure, Nicodemus is a cautious fellow, but it didn't stop him from flying back to the train to kill attack Michael back in Death Masks.

To me this suggests that the conversation with Harry in the Shedd really shocked Nic to the core.  All of a sudden, he realizes that something else is going on, and maybe he is being played somehow.  Consequently, he quietly hedges his bets and exists the scene.

I realize this doesn't automatically mean that Mab is calling the shots (Nicodemus has also just realized that the Black Court has infiltrated his ranks), but...


On to the next point.

This is reasonable. It should also be noted that Nic left all the torturing of Ivy to Tessa and crew because he was hoping that if she escaped she would be more angry at them rather than him. Given that Nic seemed to know Kincaid from before this, it is a given that Kincaid would have to be killed or incapacitated to get Ivy. Him not trying to take part in the fight also fits his above motivation

2) What advantage does Mab get by choosing Harry as Emissary?

Would Harry really have gone and tried to save Marcone if Mab hadn't chosen him to be Emissary (with the Archive being brought in, etc.)?  If the answer is "yes", then why did she choose him in the first place?  Having Harry as Emissary only adds on the apparent liability of causing Summer's goons to start chasing him, followed by the necessity of removing Fire from his arsenal of weapons.

Some thoughts:

a) Would Harry have been able to call in the Archive to arbitrate without the threat of Mab removing permission for the White Council to use the "ways"?
b) Would Harry have even moved to save Marcone if not coerced by Mab?  The conversation he has with Thomas shows he might not have.
c) Even if Harry intended to investigate the building, note that he wasn't aware that Marcone was actually inside the building during the attack until Mab showed him in the ice-movie she made.  He might not have moved quickly enough, maybe even stopped at Mrs. Demeter's "Marcone is busy" routine.

Then there is also this quote from the book that need to be resolved:

Quote

    I didn’t want to think too hard about that, and I didn’t want to openly agree with her, either. So instead I nodded at the patch of ground where the sculptures had been. “Who took Marcone?”
    “I do not know. That is one reason I chose you, Emissary. You have a gift for finding what is lost.”
    “If you want me to do this for you, I’m going to need to ask you some questions,” I said.
    Mab glanced up, as if consulting the stars through the still-falling snow. “Time, time, time. Will there never be an end to it?” She shook her head. “Wizard child, the hour has nearly passed. I have duties upon which to attend-as do you. You should rise and leave this place immediately.”


The simple explanation here is that Mab really doesn't know who took Marcone, but I find it hard to believe that with all her information-gathering resources she couldn't figure it out something about the attackers.

Examples:

a) Usage of an uber-pentegram that Harry ultimately calculates would require an arch-angel to empower.
b) She could see inside the building the Marcone was hiding in, you'd think she'd be able to see the inside of the car he was taken in.
c) Smell of hellfire -- big giveaway.

Note also that when Harry wants to ask more questions, she brushes him off with the gruff threat (not that those gruff can pose any threat while Mab is standing right there).

Thing is, Mab cannot lie, so maybe she doesn't know exactly who took Marcone.  I'll bet she has a darn good guess though.

-->

To me, the takeaway is that if we assume that Mab is the one calling the shots, then somehow, getting the Archive involved must be part of the plan.

I think she chose him because be owed her two favours and he is the most capable mortal in the realms of magic within Chicago. As you say she had to have known that hell in some form had to be involved which means the Denarians are a given, being the ones able to interact relatively freely with the mortal world. I think she has been stewing over the BC attack on her home which at least one Denarian was involved in and saw a chance here to get some payback. So she gets Harry involved.

The Hobb attack

Agreed in general.

The Shedd

Somewhat agreed.

The Island

There are a bunch of interesting things that happen on the Island - not the least of which is the encounter with "Eldest", but I'd like to focus on Harry's "Second Sight" starts coming on, the indication that the Island will be important to his future.

Take a look at this WoJ:

Quote

    How strong is Demonreach compared to Mab, Nicodemus, and all the other antagonists Harry faces?
    That’s depending on where you stand. Like literally your GPS coordinates. If you’re in the right spot, don’t mess with Demonreach, and if you’re not, who cares. He’s one of those situations. If you want to go out to that island and play, you better bring your A game, is the way it works out.


...It almost sounds like Demonreach could win an arm-wrestling contest with MAB if she ever came to visit.

Given that Harry has just found out that Demonreach will be important to his future, I think it makes sense that Demonreach also got some indication that Harry was an important figure in its future at the same time...   

Demonreach as an ally (through her future Winter Knight) is certainly a plus for Mab.

EDIT:

Here's another interesting point:  If the Denarian's original plan was only to abduct Marcone, they didn't really need to build that holding cell on the island.  Thus, if one of Mab's original goals was to introduce Harry to Demonreach, dangling Archive-shaped bait in front of the Denarians is the perfect way do so.  It is the only place in the area that would have the ley-line confluence to be able to build a cell to hold her for any long period of time.  Under Mab's original plan, Ivy would have escaped being captured the Shedd, and then she and Harry would have traveled to the island to free Marcone.

"Mr. Dresden please meet Demonreach.  Demonreach please meet Dresden."

This is the one I really disagree with. That holding circle was in Harry's words uber high level magic work, involving sigil scribed gold, silver, glyph scribed gems, symbals and chimes, crystal lights, art work etc. This isn't the sort of thing you build in a day, if the Archive was never part of the original plan, then I can't see any way even TN is going to build this in a day.

[Thork]

The more I think about Small Favor the more I think the book is a lot more "about" Marcone than I had initially thought it was.

Why does Titania care about Marcone at all? Why does Titania care about the Archive, for that matter? Or the Denarians? It can't be that Titania is working against the Circle (don't want to use Black Council because BC can also mean Black Court), because a strike against the Denarians isn't the same thing as a strike against the Circle -- one of the few things we're reasonably sure of is that Nicodemus at least *isn't* Circle, and at least initially, the Denarian's moves in Small Favor are a plot of Nicodemus's. (A lot of folks make the mistake of conflating the Circle and the Denarians, but from what we've seen so far there's likely relatively little overlap -- possibly just Thorned Namshiel and one or two others).

My guess is that Small Favor is ultimately about the Accords. Mab originated the Accords (we don't know exactly when, but relatively recently on Mab's timescale, since we have mortal characters talking about the pre-Accords state); Titania signed them and is bound by them, but is very likely (to some degree or other) to be opposed to whatever Mab's goals are with the Accords, whether near or short term.

The one thing about Marcone in Small Favor is that he represents a crisis point for the Accords, the first "vanilla" human member. That's the one thing that makes Marcone a target that Mab and Titania would care about, that makes Marcone's life or death something that the Courts would choose Emissaries over. Eldest Gruff is specific -- he isn't at Demonreach Island in order to do anything about the Archive, he's there to stop Harry from saving "the Baron", Marcone.

My guess is that the conflict between the Courts in Small Favor is ultimately about the interpretation of the Accords. Mab wrote the Accords to have *no spirit*, just the strict letter meaning, and under that letter meaning, Marcone is entitled to sign up so long as he has sponsors. Titania is bound by that strict letter as a signatory, but being Summer, 1) is going to have some degree of reflexive opposition to anything Mab does, and 2) likely has more care for the "spirit" of the Accords, and would (and this is my real guess) prefer that they remain an  agreement between supernatural entities only. So she wants Marcone either dead or converted to a Denarian, while Mab wants Marcone preserved in order to preserve the broader application of the Accords to vanilla human signatories. (The idea of Summer as change and growth, with Winter as order and preservation, may play a role here too; maybe Titania wants the Accords to change, while Mab is trying to preserve their letter).

The one thing I can't explain is the Hob attack. Maybe Mab's a little insane? Maybe someone else in Winter sent them? Maybe it was, as you suppose, merely intended to put the Archive on guard? I can't think of any interpretation that makes perfect sense.