So, I statted up all the possible dice rolls...

[Ghsdkgb]

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B_rBThBzjhXveU4yWHNYZWdSaGlscmNSOWVEaHVGZw

I don't know if it's been done or compiled already or what, but I had some time the other day and curiosity was getting the better of me. So, I used Excel to figure out the probabilities of every roll. Then, since spending a fate point allows you to reroll, I statted up the chance of improvement and chance of worse failure on a reroll. And because the option is a reroll OR a +2, I also put in the chance of that improvement being over a +2.

So if you've seen this before, I've done no harm. But if you haven't, well, here it is! Do with the knowledge what you will.

[Sanctaphrax]

The basic graph has been done before, but as far as I know the FP spending analysis is new.

Thanks regardless.

[Sjappo]

Nice one.

One thing though. My instinct tell me it is more usesfull to know the chance to get +2 or better on a reroll instead of better than +2. Look at -2 for example. Getting better than +2 starting from -2 with a reroll is 38.27%. Which suggests rerolling is not advantages, when in fact is is. The chance to roll +2 or better on a reroll starting from -2 is 61.73%. So 6 out of 10 times rerolling gets you the same or better results than grabbing a +2. Seems like a good deal to me.

So, conclusion, reroll from -4 to -2. -1 if you feel lucky. Otherwise grab that +2 from -1 or higher.

[Mr. Death]

I think the 'better than +2' way is valid enough. +2 is the default, if you will, which is a sure thing if you decide to get it. If you're rerolling, it's probably because you want--maybe need--a +3 or more.

With the 38% chance at rolling better than +2 from the initial -2, it means it might be more advantageous to just take the +2 instead of risking a bad roll in the hopes of getting +3.

It comes down to whether it's worth it vs. the +2. Or worth it for the risk of a +1 or worse.

[Sjappo]

It boils down to a 38% chance you are off worse with a reroll starting at -2. You are right though. It boils down to if you need the +3 or not. Or if it doesn't matter either way.

As an aside, it struck me as odd to see people crunching numbers on a system that is so obviously story based / not about numbers. The DnD community crunches numbers on a daily bases, but that game is all about numbers.

Still, it's good to know the odds if you go for a reroll. The choice made is more situational as you say mr. Death.

[InFerrumVeritas]

It mostly confirms my gut response to re-roll whenever I get a -3 or -4 and have a fate point handy.

[devonapple]

As an aside, it struck me as odd to see people crunching numbers on a system that is so obviously story based / not about numbers.

Once we stop using dice to resolve conflicts, then the game will be a lot less about numbers.

[Orladdin]

Once we stop using dice to resolve conflicts, then the game will be a lot less about numbers.

^  This.

I would have hoped people on this board would be too wise to fall for the Stormwind Fallacy; but Humans never cease to surprise me.

The Stormwind Fallacy, aka the Roleplayer vs Rollplayer Fallacy
Just because one optimizes his characters mechanically does not mean that they cannot also roleplay, and vice versa.

Corollary: Doing one in a game does not preclude, nor infringe upon, the ability to do the other in the same game.

Generalization 1: One is not automatically a worse roleplayer if he optimizes, and vice versa.
Generalization 2: A non-optimized character is not automatically roleplayed better than an optimized one, and vice versa.

Learn it.  Live it.

[Ghsdkgb]

As an aside, it struck me as odd to see people crunching numbers on a system that is so obviously story based / not about numbers. The DnD community crunches numbers on a daily bases, but that game is all about numbers.

Near as I can tell, these are the only numbers really worth crunching.

[Sjappo]

^  This.

I would have hoped people on this board would be too wise to fall for the Stormwind Fallacy; but Humans never cease to surprise me.

Learn it.  Live it.

Yes, yes, I know. This was not an invoke of the Sormwind Fallacy. At least, it was not intended as such. I was just surprised to see people crunching numbers. To be honest I expected to see the Stomwind Fallacy invoked on the OP for crunching numbers, not on poor old me who just made an innocent observation.

I prefer to play mechanically sound characters and I try to know how to use the game mechanics advantages as you could have guessed from the rest of my few comments on this board.

[Sjappo]

Near as I can tell, these are the only numbers really worth crunching.

True, thanks for that. I'll certainly use the knowledge deductable from your work.

[Richard_Chilton]

When I first saw Fate Dice I typed "fate dice probabilities" into google.  That brought me to http://hill-kleerup.org/pmwiki/FATE/FUDGEDice.  Then I unrolled the piece of paper that was inside the dice tube - and discovered that the company that made the dice supplied the probability breakdowns.

That piece of paper got passed around a bit during early games when people were debating "should I use that Aspect for a +2 or a re-roll?".  Knowing the odds then can help someone make a choice, but probability theory can't predict the outcome of a single data point...   In other words, if the dice show -3 and you decide to re-roll, you still have 1 / 81 chance of getting -4.

Richard