With 16 Refresh? If you're willing to spend all of it on our shapeshifting, I treccomend the following:
Sponsored Magic [-4]
True Shapeshifting [-4]
Modular Abilities [-7]
That'll give you 5 points of whatever physical powers you want, as well as whatever Skill Pyramid you like, at least in terms of physical skills, which is plenty for anything up to black bear sized. Bigger will be a bit out of your league to do at full power...but only for now.
Also, you'll be able to assume any human form you desire, which is just plain cool.