Wouldn't the Burglary +4 be the 'base starting' point? And then add the taggable Thieving Aspects (+2 ?), and then +2 (discipline assessment) +1 Lore skill = 9 shifts [Plus another +2 for Lore Assessment? If so, total is 11 shifts.]
Then the +2 (Scene aspect, something related to a cased building, tagged) if he had the time to case the joint?
And then +2 for using a Circle Ritual (?)
Not sure how much using The Sight would grant: I'd say at least +4 Shifts, since the person can see the True Nature of the Lock, and How It Works. However, remember that Harry is reluctant to use The Sight, because it can "Show you too much" and it's there Forever, once Seen: Good, Bad, or Otherwise. I mean, I'd rather not have every lock I've ever picked being stuck in my head, for as long as I lived.
All of these together might grant a 20 point Shift: But, of course, negative modifiers can be applied:
"Tricky Lock" or "Stuck Lock" might give -2;
"Rusty Lock" might give up to a -4;
"In A Hurry" (cops/rival thieves getting closer real fast) might give at least -2;
"Improvised Tools" (a hairpin and/or paperclip) might give at least -2;
"Missing Tools" (only using Kinetic magic to move the pins and tumblers) might give at least -4.
* So "In A Hurry" and "Missing Tools" could stack to give at least a -6 to the Shifts.
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Another thing to remember, is that in this new World, there are more Electronic Locks, which means that the use of Magic is going to cause them to 'fail' and be considered at least a "Stuck Lock" (at worst I'd see that it was a "Tricky Lock" plus "Rusty Lock", for -6), and that only mundane skills (and an Aura Suppressing Spell, ala Harry in Larry Fowler's studio - Book Five: Blood Ties) can be used. (Maintaining the spell could be a Conviction/Discipline and Concentration Test, which might also give negatives to the Lock Picking Test, because part of your attention is on maintaining the Spell.)
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Ok. Did I get close in my mental ramblings?